An economic approach to consumer product ratings

In three essays we examine user-generated product ratings with aggregation. While recommendation systems have been studied extensively, this simple type of recommendation system has been neglected, despite its prevalence in the field. We develop a novel theoretical model of user-generated ratings. This model improves upon previous work in three ways: it considers rational agents and allows them to abstain from rating when rating is costly; it incorporates rating aggregation (such as averaging ratings); and it considers the effect on rating strategies of multiple simultaneous raters. In the first essay we provide a partial characterization of equilibrium behavior. In the second essay we test this theoretical model in laboratory, and in the third we apply established behavioral models to the data generated in the lab. This study provides clues to the prevalence of extreme-valued ratings in field implementations. We show theoretically that in equilibrium, ratings distributions do not represent the value distributions of sincere ratings. Indeed, we show that if rating strategies follow a set of regularity conditions, then in equilibrium the rate at which players participate is increasing in the extremity of agents' valuations of the product. This theoretical prediction is realized in the lab. We also find that human subjects show a disproportionate predilection for sincere rating, and that when they do send insincere ratings, they are almost always in the direction of exaggeration. Both sincere and exaggerated ratings occur with great frequency despite the fact that such rating strategies are not in subjects' best interest. We therefore apply the behavioral concepts of quantal response equilibrium (QRE) and cursed equilibrium (CE) to the experimental data. Together, these theories explain the data significantly better than does a theory of rational, Bayesian behavior -- accurately predicting key comparative statics. However, the theories fail to predict the high rates of sincerity, and it is clear that a better theory is needed.

Synthetic, kinetic and mechanistic studies in early transition metal systems. I. α- and β-hydrogen elimination reactions in derivatives of permethyltitanocene, -zirconocene, and -hafnocene. II. The reactions of aluminum alkyls with derivatives of permethylniobocene

The thermal decomposition of Cp*Ti(CH_3)_2 (Cp*≡ ƞ^5-C_5Me_5) toluene solution follows cleanly first-order kinetics and produces a single titanium product Cp*(C_5Me_4CH_2)Ti(CH_3) concurrent with the evolution of one equivalent of methane. Labeling studies using Cp*_2Ti- (CD_3)_2 and (Cp*-d_(15))_2Ti(CH_3)_2 show the decomposition to be intramolecular and the methane to be produced by the coupling of a methyl group with a hydrogen from the other TiCH_3 group. Activation parameters, ΔH^‡ and ΔS^‡, and kinetic deuterium isotope effects have been measured. The alternative decomposition pathways of α-hydrogen abstraction and a-hydrogen elimination, both leading to a titanium-methylidene intermediate, are discussed.

The insertion of unactivated acetylenes into the metal-hydride bonds of Cp*_2MH_2 (M = Zr, Hf) proceeds rapidly at low temperature to form monoand/ or bisinsertion products, dependent upon the steric bulk of the acetylene substituents. Cp*_2M(H)(C(Me)=CHMe), Cp*_2M(H)(CH=CHCMe_3), Cp*_2M(H)-(CH=CHPh), Cp*_2M(CH=CHPh)_2, Cp*_2M(CH=CHCH_3)_2 and Cp*_2Zr- (CH=CHCH_2CH_3)_2 have been isolated and characterized. To extend the study of unsaturated-carbon ligands, Cp*_2M(C≡CCH_3)_2 have been prepared by treating Cp*_2MCl_2 with LiC≡CCH_3. The reactivity of many of these complexes with carbon monoxide and dihydrogen is surveyed. The mono(2- butenyl) complexes Cp*_2M(H)(C(Me)=CHMe) rearrange at room temperature, forming the crotyl-hydride species Cp*_2M(H)(ƞ^3-C_4H_7). The bis(propenyl) and bis(l-butenyl) zirconium complexes Cp*_2Zr(CH=CHR)_2 (R = CH_3, CH_2CH_3) also rearrange, forming zirconacyclopentenes. Labeling studies, reaction chemistry, and kinetic measurements, including deuterium isotope effects, demonstrate that the unusual 6-hydrogen elimination from an sp^2-hybridized carbon is the first step in these latter rearrangements but is not observed in the former. Details of these mechanisms and the differences in reactivity of the zirconium and hafnium complexes are discussed.

The reactions of hydride- and alkyl-carbonyl derivatives of permethylniobocene with equimolar amounts of trialkylaluminum reagents occur rapidly producing the carbonyl adducts Cp*_2Nb(R)(COAlR'_3) (R = H, CH_3, CH_2CH_3, CH_2CH_2Ph, C(Me)=CHMe; R' = Me, Et). The hydride adduct Cp*_2NbH_3•AlEt_3 has also been formed. In solution, each of these compounds exists in equilibrium with the uncomplexed species. The formation constants for Cp*_2Nb(H)(COA1R'_R) have been measured. They indicate the steric bulk of the Cp* ligands plays a deciding factor in the isolation of the first example of an aluminum Lewis acid bound to a carbonyl-oxygen in preference to a metalhydride. Reactions of Cp*_2Nb(H)CO with other Lewis acids and of the one:one adducts with H_2, CO and C_2H_4 are also discussed.

Cp*_2Nb(H)(C_2H_4) also reacts with equimolar amounts of trialkylaluminum reagents, forming a one:one complex that ^1H NMR spectroscopy indicates contains a Nb-CH_2CH_2-Al bridge. This adduct also exists in equilibrium with the uncomplexed species in solution. The formation constant for Cp*_2N+/b(H)(CH_2CH_2ĀlEt_3) has been measured. Reactions of Cp*_2Nb(H)(C_2H_4) with other Lewis acids and the reactions of Cp*_2N+b(H)- (CH_2CH_2ĀlEt_3) with CO and C_2H_4 are described, as are the reactions of Cp_*2Nb(H)(CH_2=CHR) (R = Me, Ph), Cp*_2Nb(H)(CH_3C≡CCH_3) and Cp*_2Ti-(C_2H_4) with AlEt_3.

Nature of the radical intermediates in a substituted cyclopropylcarbiny-allylcarbinyl system

We have sought to determine the nature of the free-radical precursors to ring-opened hydrocarbon 5 and ring-closed hydrocarbon 6. Reasonable alternative formulations involve the postulation of hydrogen abstraction (a) by a pair of rapidly equilibrating classical radicals (the ring-opened allylcarbinyl-type radical 3 and the ring-closed cyclopropylcarbinyl-type 4), or (b) by a nonclassical radical such as homoallylic radical 7.

[Figure not reproduced.]

Entry to the radical system is gained via degassed thermal decomposition of peresters having the ring-opened and the ring-closed structures. The ratio of 6:5 is essentially independent of the hydrogen donor concentration for decomposition of the former at 125° in the presence of triethyltin hydrdride. A deuterium labeling study showed that the α and β methylene groups in 3 (or the equivalent) are rapidly interchanged under these conditions.

Existence of two (or more) product-forming intermediates is indicated (a) by dependence of the ratio 6:5 on the tin hydride concentration for decomposition of the ring-closed perester at 10 and 35°, and (b) by formation of cage products having largely or wholly the structure (ring-opened or ring-closed) of the starting perester.

Relative rates of hydrogen abstraction by 3 could be inferred by comparison of ratios of rate constants for hydrogen abstraction and ortho-ring cyclization:

[Figure not reproduced.]

At 100° values of k_a/k_r are 0.14 for hydrogen abstraction from 1,4-cyclohexadiene and 7 for abstraction from triethyltin hydride. The ratio 6:5 at the same temperature is ~0.0035 for hydrogen abstraction from 1,4-cyclohexadiene, ~0.078 for abstraction from the tin hydride, and ≥ 5 for abstraction from cyclohexadienyl radicals. These data indicate that abstraction of hydrogen from triethyltin hydride is more rapid than from 1,4-cyclohexadiene by a factor of ~1000 for 4, but only ~50 for 3.

Measurements of product ratios at several temperatures allowed the construction of an approximate energy-level scheme. A major inference is that isomerization of 3 to 4 is exothermic by 8 ± 3 kcal/mole, in good agreement with expectations based on bond dissociation energies. Absolute rate-constant estimates are also given.

The results are nicely compatible with a classical-radical mechanism, but attempted interpretation in terms of a nonclassical radical precursor of product ratios formed even from equilibrated radical intermediates leads, it is argued, to serious difficulties.

The roles played by hydrogen abstraction from 1,4,-cyclohexadiene and from the derived cyclohexadienyl radicals were probed by fitting observed ratios of 6:5 and 5:10 in the sense of least-squares to expressions derived for a complex mechanistic scheme. Some 30 to 40 measurements on each product ratio, obtained under a variety of experimental conditions, could be fit with an average deviation of ~6%. Significant systematic deviations were found, but these could largely be redressed by assuming (a) that the rate constant for reaction of 4 with cyclohexadienyl radical is inversely proportional to the viscosity of the medium (i.e., is diffusion-controlled), and (b) that k_a/k_r for hydrogen abstraction from 1,4-cyclohexadiene depends slightly on the composition of the medium. An average deviation of 4.4% was thereby attained.

Degassed thermal decomposition of the ring-opened perester in the presence of the triethyltin hydride occurs primarily by attack on perester of triethyltin radicals, presumably at the –O-O- bond, even at 0.01 M tin hydride at 100 and 125°. Tin ester and tin ether are apparently formed in closely similar amounts under these conditions, but the tin ester predominates at room temperature in the companion air-induced decomposition, indicating that attack on perester to give the tin ether requires an activation energy approximately 5 kcal/mole in excess of that for the formation of tin ester.