An economic approach to consumer product ratings

In three essays we examine user-generated product ratings with aggregation. While recommendation systems have been studied extensively, this simple type of recommendation system has been neglected, despite its prevalence in the field. We develop a novel theoretical model of user-generated ratings. This model improves upon previous work in three ways: it considers rational agents and allows them to abstain from rating when rating is costly; it incorporates rating aggregation (such as averaging ratings); and it considers the effect on rating strategies of multiple simultaneous raters. In the first essay we provide a partial characterization of equilibrium behavior. In the second essay we test this theoretical model in laboratory, and in the third we apply established behavioral models to the data generated in the lab. This study provides clues to the prevalence of extreme-valued ratings in field implementations. We show theoretically that in equilibrium, ratings distributions do not represent the value distributions of sincere ratings. Indeed, we show that if rating strategies follow a set of regularity conditions, then in equilibrium the rate at which players participate is increasing in the extremity of agents' valuations of the product. This theoretical prediction is realized in the lab. We also find that human subjects show a disproportionate predilection for sincere rating, and that when they do send insincere ratings, they are almost always in the direction of exaggeration. Both sincere and exaggerated ratings occur with great frequency despite the fact that such rating strategies are not in subjects' best interest. We therefore apply the behavioral concepts of quantal response equilibrium (QRE) and cursed equilibrium (CE) to the experimental data. Together, these theories explain the data significantly better than does a theory of rational, Bayesian behavior -- accurately predicting key comparative statics. However, the theories fail to predict the high rates of sincerity, and it is clear that a better theory is needed.

The steady-state response of multidegree-of-freedom systems with a spatially localized nonlinearity

This thesis is concerned with the dynamic response of a General multidegree-of-freedom linear system with a one dimensional nonlinear constraint attached between two points. The nonlinear constraint is assumed to consist of rate-independent conservative and hysteretic nonlinearities and may contain a viscous dissipation element. The dynamic equations for general spatial and temporal load distributions are derived for both continuous and discrete systems. The method of equivalent linearization is used to develop equations which govern the approximate steady-state response to generally distributed loads with harmonic time dependence.

The qualitative response behavior of a class of undamped chainlike structures with a nonlinear terminal constraint is investigated. It is shown that the hardening or softening behavior of every resonance curve is similar and is determined by the properties of the constraint. Also examined are the number and location of resonance curves, the boundedness of the forced response, the loci of response extrema, and other characteristics of the response. Particular consideration is given to the dependence of the response characteristics on the properties of the linear system, the nonlinear constraint, and the load distribution.

Numerical examples of the approximate steady-state response of three structural systems are presented. These examples illustrate the application of the formulation and qualitative theory. It is shown that disconnected response curves and response curves which cross are obtained for base excitation of a uniform shear beam with a cubic spring foundation. Disconnected response curves are also obtained for the steady-state response to a concentrated load of a chainlike structure with a hardening hysteretic constraint. The accuracy of the approximate response curves is investigated.

The reduced-alpha-width of the lowest 1¯ state of ^(16)O

Cross sections for the reaction ¹²C(α,γ)¹⁶O have been measured for a range of center-of-mass alpha particle energies extending from 1.72 MeV to 2.94 MeV. Two 8"x5" NaI (Tℓ) crystals were used to detect gamma rays; time-of-flight technique was employed to suppress cosmic ray background and background due to neutrons arising mainly from the ¹³C(α,n)¹⁶O reaction. Angular distributions were measured at center-of-mass alpha energies of 2.18, 2.42, 2.56 and 2.83 MeV. Upper limits were placed on the amount of radiation cascading through the 6.92 or 7.12-MeV states in ¹⁶O. By means of theoretical fits to the measured electric dipole component of the total cross section, in which interference between the 1¯ states in ¹⁶O at 7.12 MeV and at 9.60 MeV is taken into account, it is possible to extract the dimensionless, reduced-alpha-width of the 7.12-MeV state in ¹⁶O. A three-level R-matrix parameterization of the data yields the width Θ_α,F² = 0.14^+0.10_-0.08. A "hybrid" R-matrix-optical-model parameterization yields Θ_α,F² = 0.11^+0.11_-0.07. This quantity is of crucial importance in determining the abundances of ¹²C and ¹⁶O at the end of helium burning in stars.

Stationary absolute distributions for chains of infinite order

Let {Ƶ_n}^∞_{n = -∞} be a stochastic process with state space S₁ = {0, 1, …, D – 1}. Such a process is called a chain of infinite order. The transitions of the chain are described by the functions

Q_i(i⁽⁰⁾) = Ƥ(Ƶ_n = i | Ƶ_{n - 1} = i ⁽⁰⁾₁, Ƶ_{n - 2} = i ⁽⁰⁾₂, …) (i ɛ S₁), where i⁽⁰⁾ = (i⁽⁰⁾₁, i⁽⁰⁾₂, …) ranges over infinite sequences from S₁. If i⁽ⁿ⁾ = (i⁽ⁿ⁾₁, i⁽ⁿ⁾₂, …) for n = 1, 2,…, then i⁽ⁿ⁾ → i⁽⁰⁾ means that for each k, i⁽ⁿ⁾_k = i⁽⁰⁾_k for all n sufficiently large.

Given functions Q_i(i⁽⁰⁾) such that

(i) 0 ≤ Q_i(i⁽⁰) ≤ ξ ˂ 1

(ii)D – 1/Ʃ/i = 0 Q_i(i⁽⁰⁾) Ξ 1

(iii) Q_i(i⁽ⁿ⁾) → Q_i(i⁽⁰⁾) whenever i⁽ⁿ⁾ → i⁽⁰⁾,

we prove the existence of a stationary chain of infinite order {Ƶ_n} whose transitions are given by

Ƥ (Ƶ_n = i | Ƶ_{n - 1}, Ƶ_{n - 2}, …) = Q_i(Ƶ_{n - 1}, Ƶ_{n - 2}, …)

With probability 1. The method also yields stationary chains {Ƶ_n} for which (iii) does not hold but whose transition probabilities are, in a sense, “locally Markovian.” These and similar results extend a paper by T.E. Harris [Pac. J. Math., 5 (1955), 707-724].

Included is a new proof of the existence and uniqueness of a stationary absolute distribution for an Nth order Markov chain in which all transitions are possible. This proof allows us to achieve our main results without the use of limit theorem techniques.