An economic approach to consumer product ratings

In three essays we examine user-generated product ratings with aggregation. While recommendation systems have been studied extensively, this simple type of recommendation system has been neglected, despite its prevalence in the field. We develop a novel theoretical model of user-generated ratings. This model improves upon previous work in three ways: it considers rational agents and allows them to abstain from rating when rating is costly; it incorporates rating aggregation (such as averaging ratings); and it considers the effect on rating strategies of multiple simultaneous raters. In the first essay we provide a partial characterization of equilibrium behavior. In the second essay we test this theoretical model in laboratory, and in the third we apply established behavioral models to the data generated in the lab. This study provides clues to the prevalence of extreme-valued ratings in field implementations. We show theoretically that in equilibrium, ratings distributions do not represent the value distributions of sincere ratings. Indeed, we show that if rating strategies follow a set of regularity conditions, then in equilibrium the rate at which players participate is increasing in the extremity of agents' valuations of the product. This theoretical prediction is realized in the lab. We also find that human subjects show a disproportionate predilection for sincere rating, and that when they do send insincere ratings, they are almost always in the direction of exaggeration. Both sincere and exaggerated ratings occur with great frequency despite the fact that such rating strategies are not in subjects' best interest. We therefore apply the behavioral concepts of quantal response equilibrium (QRE) and cursed equilibrium (CE) to the experimental data. Together, these theories explain the data significantly better than does a theory of rational, Bayesian behavior -- accurately predicting key comparative statics. However, the theories fail to predict the high rates of sincerity, and it is clear that a better theory is needed.

Sulfur-Cycling in Methane-Rich Ecosystems: Uncovering Microbial Processes and Novel Niches

Microbial sulfur cycling communities were investigated in two methane-rich ecosystems, terrestrial mud volcanoes (TMVs) and marine methane seeps, in order to investigate niches and processes that would likely be central to the functioning of these crucial ecosystems. Terrestrial mud volcanoes represent geochemically diverse habitats with varying sulfur sources and yet sulfur-cycling in these environments remains largely unexplored. Here we characterized the sulfur-metabolizing microorganisms and activity in 4 TMVs in Azerbaijan, supporting the presence of active sulfur-oxidizing and sulfate-reducing guilds in all 4 TMVs across a range of physiochemical conditions, with diversity of these guilds being unique to each TMV. We also found evidence for the anaerobic oxidation of methane coupled to sulfate reduction, a process which we explored further in the more tractable marine methane seeps. Diverse associations between methanotrophic archaea (ANME) and sulfate-reducing bacterial groups (SRB) often co-occur in marine methane seeps, however the ecophysiology of these different symbiotic associations has not been examined. Using a combination of molecular, geochemical and fluorescence in situ hybridization coupled to nano-scale secondary ion mass spectrometry (FISH-NanoSIMS) analyses of in situ seep sediments and methane-amended sediment incubations from diverse locations, we show that the unexplained diversity in SRB associated with ANME cells can be at least partially explained by preferential nitrate utilization by one particular partner, the seepDBB. This discovery reveals that nitrate is likely an important factor in community structuring and diversity in marine methane seep ecosystems. The thesis concludes with a study of the dynamics between ANME and their associated SRB partners. We inhibited sulfate reduction and followed the metabolic processes of the community as well as the effect of ANME/SRB aggregate composition and growth on a cellular level by tracking 15N substrate incorporation into biomass using FISH-NanoSIMS. We revealed that while sulfate-reducing bacteria gradually disappeared over time in incubations with an SRB inhibitor, the ANME archaea persisted in the form of ANME-only aggregates, which are capable of little to no growth when sulfate reduction is inhibited. These data suggest ANME are not able to synthesize new proteins when sulfate reduction is inhibited.