Earthquakes of the Nepal Himalaya : towards a physical model of the seismic cycle

Home to hundreds of millions of souls and land of excessiveness, the Himalaya is also the locus of a unique seismicity whose scope and peculiarities still remain to this day somewhat mysterious. Having claimed the lives of kings, or turned ancient timeworn cities into heaps of rubbles and ruins, earthquakes eerily inhabit Nepalese folk tales with the fatalistic message that nothing lasts forever. From a scientific point of view as much as from a human perspective, solving the mysteries of Himalayan seismicity thus represents a challenge of prime importance. Documenting geodetic strain across the Nepal Himalaya with various GPS and leveling data, we show that unlike other subduction zones that exhibit a heterogeneous and patchy coupling pattern along strike, the last hundred kilometers of the Main Himalayan Thrust fault, or MHT, appear to be uniformly locked, devoid of any of the “creeping barriers” that traditionally ward off the propagation of large events. The approximately 20 mm/yr of reckoned convergence across the Himalaya matching previously established estimates of the secular deformation at the front of the arc, the slip accumulated at depth has to somehow elastically propagate all the way to the surface at some point. And yet, neither large events from the past nor currently recorded microseismicity nearly compensate for the massive moment deficit that quietly builds up under the giant mountains. Along with this large unbalanced moment deficit, the uncommonly homogeneous coupling pattern on the MHT raises the question of whether or not the locked portion of the MHT can rupture all at once in a giant earthquake. Univocally answering this question appears contingent on the still elusive estimate of the magnitude of the largest possible earthquake in the Himalaya, and requires tight constraints on local fault properties. What makes the Himalaya enigmatic also makes it the potential source of an incredible wealth of information, and we exploit some of the oddities of Himalayan seismicity in an effort to improve the understanding of earthquake physics and cipher out the properties of the MHT. Thanks to the Himalaya, the Indo-Gangetic plain is deluged each year under a tremendous amount of water during the annual summer monsoon that collects and bears down on the Indian plate enough to pull it away from the Eurasian plate slightly, temporarily relieving a small portion of the stress mounting on the MHT. As the rainwater evaporates in the dry winter season, the plate rebounds and tension is increased back on the fault. Interestingly, the mild waggle of stress induced by the monsoon rains is about the same size as that from solid-Earth tides which gently tug at the planets solid layers, but whereas changes in earthquake frequency correspond with the annually occurring monsoon, there is no such correlation with Earth tides, which oscillate back-and-forth twice a day. We therefore investigate the general response of the creeping and seismogenic parts of MHT to periodic stresses in order to link these observations to physical parameters. First, the response of the creeping part of the MHT is analyzed with a simple spring-and-slider system bearing rate-strengthening rheology, and we show that at the transition with the locked zone, where the friction becomes near velocity neutral, the response of the slip rate may be amplified at some periods, which values are analytically related to the physical parameters of the problem. Such predictions therefore hold the potential of constraining fault properties on the MHT, but still await observational counterparts to be applied, as nothing indicates that the variations of seismicity rate on the locked part of the MHT are the direct expressions of variations of the slip rate on its creeping part, and no variations of the slip rate have been singled out from the GPS measurements to this day. When shifting to the locked seismogenic part of the MHT, spring-and-slider models with rate-weakening rheology are insufficient to explain the contrasted responses of the seismicity to the periodic loads that tides and monsoon both place on the MHT. Instead, we resort to numerical simulations using the Boundary Integral CYCLes of Earthquakes algorithm and examine the response of a 2D finite fault embedded with a rate-weakening patch to harmonic stress perturbations of various periods. We show that such simulations are able to reproduce results consistent with a gradual amplification of sensitivity as the perturbing period get larger, up to a critical period corresponding to the characteristic time of evolution of the seismicity in response to a step-like perturbation of stress. This increase of sensitivity was not reproduced by simple 1D-spring-slider systems, probably because of the complexity of the nucleation process, reproduced only by 2D-fault models. When the nucleation zone is close to its critical unstable size, its growth becomes highly sensitive to any external perturbations and the timings of produced events may therefore find themselves highly affected. A fully analytical framework has yet to be developed and further work is needed to fully describe the behavior of the fault in terms of physical parameters, which will likely provide the keys to deduce constitutive properties of the MHT from seismological observations.

Constraints on the carbon cycle and climate during the early evolution of animals

One of the greatest challenges in science lies in disentangling causality in complex, coupled systems. This is illustrated no better than in the dynamic interplay between the Earth and life. The early evolution and diversification of animals occurred within a backdrop of global change, yet reconstructing the potential role of the environment in this evolutionary transition is challenging. In the 200 million years from the end-Cryogenian to the Ordovician, enigmatic Ediacaran fauna explored body plans, animals diversified and began to biomineralize, forever changing the ocean's chemical cycles, and the biological community in shallow marine ecosystems transitioned from a microbial one to an animal one.

In the following dissertation, a multi-faceted approach combining macro- and micro-scale analyses is presented that draws on the sedimentology, geochemistry and paleontology of the rocks that span this transition to better constrain the potential environmental changes during this interval.

In Chapter 1, the potential of clumped isotope thermometry in deep time is explored by assessing the importance of burial and diagenesis on the thermometer. Eocene- to Precambrian-aged carbonates from the Sultanate of Oman were analyzed from current burial depths of 350-5850 meters. Two end-member styles of diagenesis independent of burial depth were observed.

Chapters 2, 3 and 4 explore the fallibility of the Ediacaran carbon isotope record and aspects of the sedimentology and geochemistry of the rocks preserving the largest negative carbon isotope excursion on record---the Shuram Excursion. Chapter 2 documents the importance of temperature, fluid composition and mineralogy on the delta 18-O min record and interrogates the bulk trace metal signal. Chapter 3 explores the spatial variability in delta 13-C recorded in the transgressive Johnnie Oolite and finds a north-to-south trend recording the onset of the excursion. Chapter 4 investigates the nature of seafloor precipitation during this excursion and more broadly. We document the potential importance of microbial respiratory reactions on the carbonate chemistry of the sediment-water interface through time.

Chapter 5 investigates the latest Precambrian sedimentary record in carbonates from the Sultanate of Oman, including how delta 13-C and delta 34-S CAS vary across depositional and depth gradients. A new model for the correlation of the Buah and Ara formations across Oman is presented. Isotopic results indicate delta 13-C varies with relative eustatic change and delta 34-S CAS may vary in absolute magnitude across Oman.

Chapter 6 investigates the secular rise in delta 18-Omin in the early Paleozoic by using clumped isotope geochemistry on calcitic and phosphatic fossils from the Cambrian and Ordovician. Results do not indicate extreme delta 18-O seawater depletion and instead suggest warmer equatorial temperatures across the early Paleozoic.

Cooperative and market-based solutions to pollution abatement problems

This work concerns itself with the possibility of solutions, both cooperative and market based, to pollution abatement problems. In particular, we are interested in pollutant emissions in Southern California and possible solutions to the abatement problems enumerated in the 1990 Clean Air Act. A tradable pollution permit program has been implemented to reduce emissions, creating property rights associated with various pollutants.

Before we discuss the performance of market-based solutions to LA's pollution woes, we consider the existence of cooperative solutions. In Chapter 2, we examine pollutant emissions as a trans boundary public bad. We show that for a class of environments in which pollution moves in a bi-directional, acyclic manner, there exists a sustainable coalition structure and associated levels of emissions. We do so via a new core concept, one more appropriate to modeling cooperative emissions agreements (and potential defection from them) than the standard definitions.

However, this leaves the question of implementing pollution abatement programs unanswered. While the existence of a cost-effective permit market equilibrium has long been understood, the implementation of such programs has been difficult. The design of Los Angeles' REgional CLean Air Incentives Market (RECLAIM) alleviated some of the implementation problems, and in part exacerbated them. For example, it created two overlapping cycles of permits and two zones of permits for different geographic regions. While these design features create a market that allows some measure of regulatory control, they establish a very difficult trading environment with the potential for inefficiency arising from the transactions costs enumerated above and the illiquidity induced by the myriad assets and relatively few participants in this market.

It was with these concerns in mind that the ACE market (Automated Credit Exchange) was designed. The ACE market utilizes an iterated combined-value call market (CV Market). Before discussing the performance of the RECLAIM program in general and the ACE mechanism in particular, we test experimentally whether a portfolio trading mechanism can overcome market illiquidity. Chapter 3 experimentally demonstrates the ability of a portfolio trading mechanism to overcome portfolio rebalancing problems, thereby inducing sufficient liquidity for markets to fully equilibrate.

With experimental evidence in hand, we consider the CV Market's performance in the real world. We find that as the allocation of permits reduces to the level of historical emissions, prices are increasing. As of April of this year, prices are roughly equal to the cost of the Best Available Control Technology (BACT). This took longer than expected, due both to tendencies to mis-report emissions under the old regime, and abatement technology advances encouraged by the program. Vve also find that the ACE market provides liquidity where needed to encourage long-term planning on behalf of polluting facilities.

Synthesis and matrix isolated photolysis of 2,3-dimethylbicyclo [2.2.0]hexa-2,5-diene-1,4-dicarboxylic acid anhydride: a potential percursor to 2,3-dimethyl-1,4-dehydrobenzene

The synthesis of the first member of a new class of Dewar benzenes has been achieved. The synthesis of 2,3- dimethylbicyclo[2.2.0]hexa-2,5-diene-1, 4-dicarboxylic acid and its anhydride are described. Dibromomaleic anhydride and dichloroethylene were found to add efficiently in a photochemical [2+2] cycloaddition to produce 1,2-dibromo- 3,4-dichlorocyclobutane-1,2-dicarboxylic acid. Removal of the bromines with tin/copper couple yielded dichloro- cyclobutenes which added to 2-butyne under photochemical conditions to yield 5,6-dichloro-2,3-dimethylbicyclo [2.2.0] hex-2-ene dicarboxylic acids. One of the three possible isomers yielded a stable anhydride which could be dechlorinated using triphenyltin radicals generated by the photolysis of hexaphenylditin.

Photolysis of argon matrix isolated 2,3-dimethylbicyclo [2.2.0]hexa-2, 5-diene-1,4-dicarboxylic acid anhydride produced traces whose strongest bands in the infrared were at 3350 and 600 cm^(-1). This suggested the formation of terminal acetylenes. The spectra of argon matrix isolated E- and Z- 3,4-dimethylhexa-1,5-diyne-3-ene and cis-and trans-octa- 2,6-diyne-4-ene were compared with the spectrum of the photolysis products. Possibly all four diethynylethylenes were present in the anhydride photolysis products. Gas chromatograph-mass spectral analysis of the volatiles from the anhydride photolysis again suggested, but did not confirm, the presence of the diethynylethylenes.

Logarithmic Potential Theory on Riemann Surfaces

We develop a logarithmic potential theory on Riemann surfaces which generalizes logarithmic potential theory on the complex plane. We show the existence of an equilibrium measure and examine its structure. This leads to a formula for the structure of the equilibrium measure which is new even in the plane. We then use our results to study quadrature domains, Laplacian growth, and Coulomb gas ensembles on Riemann surfaces. We prove that the complement of the support of the equilibrium measure satisfies a quadrature identity. Furthermore, our setup allows us to naturally realize weak solutions of Laplacian growth (for a general time-dependent source) as an evolution of the support of equilibrium measures. When applied to the Riemann sphere this approach unifies the known methods for generating interior and exterior Laplacian growth. We later narrow our focus to a special class of quadrature domains which we call Algebraic Quadrature Domains. We show that many of the properties of quadrature domains generalize to this setting. In particular, the boundary of an Algebraic Quadrature Domain is the inverse image of a planar algebraic curve under a meromorphic function. This makes the study of the topology of Algebraic Quadrature Domains an interesting problem. We briefly investigate this problem and then narrow our focus to the study of the topology of classical quadrature domains. We extend the results of Lee and Makarov and prove (for n ≥ 3) c ≤ 5n-5, where c and n denote the connectivity and degree of a (classical) quadrature domain. At the same time we obtain a new upper bound on the number of isolated points of the algebraic curve corresponding to the boundary and thus a new upper bound on the number of special points. In the final chapter we study Coulomb gas ensembles on Riemann surfaces.

Relativistic velocity - potential hydrodynamics and stellar stability

The equations of relativistic, perfect-fluid hydrodynamics are cast in Eulerian form using six scalar "velocity-potential" fields, each of which has an equation of evolution. These equations determine the motion of the fluid through the equation

U_ʋ=µ^-1 (ø,_ʋ + αβ,_ʋ + ƟS,_ʋ).

Einstein's equations and the velocity-potential hydrodynamical equations follow from a variational principle whose action is

I = (R + 16π p) (-g)^1/2 d⁴x,

where R is the scalar curvature of spacetime and p is the pressure of the fluid. These equations are also cast into Hamiltonian form, with Hamiltonian density –T₀⁰ (-g^oo)^-1/2.

The second variation of the action is used as the Lagrangian governing the evolution of small perturbations of differentially rotating stellar models. In Newtonian gravity this leads to linear dynamical stability criteria already known. In general relativity it leads to a new sufficient condition for the stability of such models against arbitrary perturbations.

By introducing three scalar fields defined by

ρ ᵴ = ∇λ + ∇x(xi + ∇xɣi)

(where ᵴ is the vector displacement of the perturbed fluid element, ρ is the mass-density, and i, is an arbitrary vector), the Newtonian stability criteria are greatly simplified for the purpose of practical applications. The relativistic stability criterion is not yet in a form that permits practical calculations, but ways to place it in such a form are discussed.