Stationary Eddies and Zonal Variations of the Global Hydrological Cycle in a Changing Climate

This thesis advances our physical understanding of the sensitivity of the hydrological cycle to global warming. Specifically, it focuses on changes in the longitudinal (zonal) variation of precipitation minus evaporation (P - E), which is predominantly controlled by planetary-scale stationary eddies. By studying idealized general circulation model (GCM) experiments with zonally varying boundary conditions, this thesis examines the mechanisms controlling the strength of stationary-eddy circulations and their role in the hydrological cycle. The overarching goal of this research is to understand the cause of changes in regional P - E with global warming. An understanding of such changes can be useful for impact studies focusing on water availability, ecosystem management, and flood risk.

Based on a moisture-budget analysis of ERA-Interim data, we establish an approximation for zonally anomalous P - E in terms of surface moisture content and stationary-eddy vertical motion in the lower troposphere. Part of the success of this approximation comes from our finding that transient-eddy moisture fluxes partially cancel the effect of stationary-eddy moisture advection, allowing divergent circulations to dominate the moisture budget. The lower-tropospheric vertical motion is related to horizontal motion in stationary eddies by Sverdrup and Ekman balance. These moisture- and vorticity-budget balances also hold in idealized and comprehensive GCM simulations across a range of climates.

By examining climate changes in the idealized and comprehensive GCM simulations, we are able to show the utility of the vertical motion P - E approximation for splitting changes in zonally anomalous P - E into thermodynamic and dynamic components. Shifts in divergent stationary-eddy circulations dominate changes in zonally anomalous P - E. This limits the local utility of the "wet gets wetter, dry gets drier” idea, where existing P - E patterns are amplified with warming by the increase in atmospheric moisture content, with atmospheric circulations held fixed. The increase in atmospheric moisture content manifests instead in an increase in the amplitude of the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle as measured by the zonal variance of P - E. However, dynamic changes, particularly the slowdown of divergent stationary-eddy circulations, limit the strengthening of the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle. In certain idealized cases, dynamic changes are even strong enough to reverse the tendency towards "wet gets wetter, dry gets drier” with warming.

Motivated by the importance of stationary-eddy vertical velocities in the moisture budget analysis, we examine controls on the amplitude of stationary eddies across a wide range of climates in an idealized GCM with simple topographic and ocean-heating zonal asymmetries. An analysis of the thermodynamic equation in the vicinity of topographic forcing reveals the importance of on-slope surface winds, the midlatitude isentropic slope, and latent heating in setting the amplitude of stationary waves. The response of stationary eddies to climate change is determined primarily by the strength of zonal surface winds hitting the mountain. The sensitivity of stationary-eddies to this surface forcing increases with climate change as the slope of midlatitude isentropes decreases. However, latent heating also plays an important role in damping the stationary-eddy response, and this damping becomes stronger with warming as the atmospheric moisture content increases. We find that the response of tropical overturning circulations forced by ocean heat-flux convergence is described by changes in the vertical structure of moist static energy and deep convection. This is used to derive simple scalings for the Walker circulation strength that capture the monotonic decrease with warming found in our idealized simulations.

Through the work of this thesis, the advances made in understanding the amplitude of stationary-waves in a changing climate can be directly applied to better understand and predict changes in the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle.

The structure and petrology of the Johnny Lyon Hills area, Cochise County, Arizona

The Johnny Lyon Hills area is located in Cochise County in southeastern Arizona. The rocks of the area include a central core of Lower pre-Cambrian igneous and metamorphic rocks surrounded by a complexly faulted and tilted section of Upper pre-Cambrian and Paleozoic strata. Limited exposures of Mesozoic and Tertiary sedimentary and volcanic rocks are present at the north end of the map area. Late Tertiary and Quaternary alluvium almost completely surrounds and overlaps upon the older rocks.

The older pre-Cambrian rocks include a section of more than 9000 feet of generally moderately metamorphosed graywackes, slates and conglomerates of the Pinal schist injected in zones by somewhat younger rnyolite sheets. The original sediments were deposited in a geosyncline whose extent probably included large parts of Arizona, New Mexico and west Texas. During the Mazatzal Revolution the Pinal schist was deformed into northeast-trending, steeply dipping and plunging structures and the entire local section was overturned steeply toward the northwest. The pre-Cambrian Johnny Lyon granodiorite was emplaced as a large epi-tectonic pluton which modified the metamorphic character of part of the Pinal schist. Larsen method determinations indicate an age of about 715 million years for this rock, which is about the minimum age compatible with the geologic relations.

The Laramide orogeny produced numerous major thrust faults in the area involving all rocks older than and including the Lower Cretaceous Bisbee group. Major compression from the southwest and subsequent superimposed thrusting from the southeast and east are indicated. Minimum thrust displacements of more than a mile are clear and the probable displacements are of much greater magnitude. The crystalline core behaved as a single structural unit and probably caused important local divergences from the regional pattern of northeast-trending compressive forces. The massif was rotated as a unit 40 degrees or more about a northwest-trending axis overturning the pre-Cambrian fold axes in the Pinal schist.

Swarms of Late Cretaceous(?) or Early Tertiary(?) lamprophyric dikes cross the Laramide structures and are probably related to the large Texas Canyon stock several miles southeast of the map area. Intermittent high angle faulting, both older and younger than the dikes, has continued since the Laramide orogeny and has been superimposed on the older structures. This steep faulting combined with the fundamental northwesterly Laramide structural grain to produce the northwesterly trends characteristic of the mountain ridges and valleys of the area.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation : observation, modeling, and theory

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a pattern of intense rainfall and associated planetary-scale circulations in the tropical atmosphere, with a recurrence interval of 30-90 days. Although the MJO was first discovered 40 years ago, it is still a challenge to simulate the MJO in general circulation models (GCMs), and even with simple models it is difficult to agree on the basic mechanisms. This deficiency is mainly due to our poor understanding of moist convection—deep cumulus clouds and thunderstorms, which occur at scales that are smaller than the resolution elements of the GCMs. Moist convection is the most important mechanism for transporting energy from the ocean to the atmosphere. Success in simulating the MJO will improve our understanding of moist convection and thereby improve weather and climate forecasting.

We address this fundamental subject by analyzing observational datasets, constructing a hierarchy of numerical models, and developing theories. Parameters of the models are taken from observation, and the simulated MJO fits the data without further adjustments. The major findings include: 1) the MJO may be an ensemble of convection events linked together by small-scale high-frequency inertia-gravity waves; 2) the eastward propagation of the MJO is determined by the difference between the eastward and westward phase speeds of the waves; 3) the planetary scale of the MJO is the length over which temperature anomalies can be effectively smoothed by gravity waves; 4) the strength of the MJO increases with the typical strength of convection, which increases in a warming climate; 5) the horizontal scale of the MJO increases with the spatial frequency of convection; and 6) triggered convection, where potential energy accumulates until a threshold is reached, is important in simulating the MJO. Our findings challenge previous paradigms, which consider the MJO as a large-scale mode, and point to ways for improving the climate models.

Observations and Modeling of Tropical Planetary Atmospheres

This thesis is a comprised of three different projects within the topic of tropical atmospheric dynamics. First, I analyze observations of thermal radiation from Saturn’s atmosphere and from them, determine the latitudinal distribution of ammonia vapor near the 1.5-bar pressure level. The most prominent feature of the observations is the high brightness temperature of Saturn’s subtropical latitudes on either side of the equator. After comparing the observations to a microwave radiative transfer model, I find that these subtropical bands require very low ammonia relative humidity below the ammonia cloud layer in order to achieve the high brightness temperatures observed. We suggest that these bright subtropical bands represent dry zones created by a meridionally overturning circulation.

Second, I use a dry atmospheric general circulation model to study equatorial superrotation in terrestrial atmospheres. A wide range of atmospheres are simulated by varying three parameters: the pole-equator radiative equilibrium temperature contrast, the convective lapse rate, and the planetary rotation rate. A scaling theory is developed that establishes conditions under which superrotation occurs in terrestrial atmospheres. The scaling arguments show that superrotation is favored when the off-equatorial baroclinicity and planetary rotation rates are low. Similarly, superrotation is favored when the convective heating strengthens, which may account for the superrotation seen in extreme global-warming simulations.

Third, I use a moist slab-ocean general circulation model to study the impact of a zonally-symmetric continent on the distribution of monsoonal precipitation. I show that adding a hemispheric asymmetry in surface heat capacity is sufficient to cause symmetry breaking in both the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation. This spatial symmetry breaking can be understood from a large-scale energetic perspective, while the temporal symmetry breaking requires consideration of the dynamical response to the heat capacity asymmetry and the seasonal cycle of insolation. Interestingly, the idealized monsoonal precipitation bears resemblance to precipitation in the Indian monsoon sector, suggesting that this work may provide insight into the causes of the temporally asymmetric distribution of precipitation over southeast Asia.