A probabilistic treatment of uncertainty in nonlinear dynamical systems

In this work, computationally efficient approximate methods are developed for analyzing uncertain dynamical systems. Uncertainties in both the excitation and the modeling are considered and examples are presented illustrating the accuracy of the proposed approximations.

For nonlinear systems under uncertain excitation, methods are developed to approximate the stationary probability density function and statistical quantities of interest. The methods are based on approximating solutions to the Fokker-Planck equation for the system and differ from traditional methods in which approximate solutions to stochastic differential equations are found. The new methods require little computational effort and examples are presented for which the accuracy of the proposed approximations compare favorably to results obtained by existing methods. The most significant improvements are made in approximating quantities related to the extreme values of the response, such as expected outcrossing rates, which are crucial for evaluating the reliability of the system.

Laplace's method of asymptotic approximation is applied to approximate the probability integrals which arise when analyzing systems with modeling uncertainty. The asymptotic approximation reduces the problem of evaluating a multidimensional integral to solving a minimization problem and the results become asymptotically exact as the uncertainty in the modeling goes to zero. The method is found to provide good approximations for the moments and outcrossing rates for systems with uncertain parameters under stochastic excitation, even when there is a large amount of uncertainty in the parameters. The method is also applied to classical reliability integrals, providing approximations in both the transformed (independently, normally distributed) variables and the original variables. In the transformed variables, the asymptotic approximation yields a very simple formula for approximating the value of SORM integrals. In many cases, it may be computationally expensive to transform the variables, and an approximation is also developed in the original variables. Examples are presented illustrating the accuracy of the approximations and results are compared with existing approximations.

MEMS for Diabetic Retinopathy

As the worldwide prevalence of diabetes mellitus continues to increase, diabetic retinopathy remains the leading cause of visual impairment and blindness in many developed countries. Between 32 to 40 percent of about 246 million people with diabetes develop diabetic retinopathy. Approximately 4.1 million American adults 40 years and older are affected by diabetic retinopathy. This glucose-induced microvascular disease progressively damages the tiny blood vessels that nourish the retina, the light-sensitive tissue at the back of the eye, leading to retinal ischemia (i.e., inadequate blood flow), retinal hypoxia (i.e., oxygen deprivation), and retinal nerve cell degeneration or death. It is a most serious sight-threatening complication of diabetes, resulting in significant irreversible vision loss, and even total blindness.

Unfortunately, although current treatments of diabetic retinopathy (i.e., laser therapy, vitrectomy surgery and anti-VEGF therapy) can reduce vision loss, they only slow down but cannot stop the degradation of the retina. Patients require repeated treatment to protect their sight. The current treatments also have significant drawbacks. Laser therapy is focused on preserving the macula, the area of the retina that is responsible for sharp, clear, central vision, by sacrificing the peripheral retina since there is only limited oxygen supply. Therefore, laser therapy results in a constricted peripheral visual field, reduced color vision, delayed dark adaptation, and weakened night vision. Vitrectomy surgery increases the risk of neovascular glaucoma, another devastating ocular disease, characterized by the proliferation of fibrovascular tissue in the anterior chamber angle. Anti-VEGF agents have potential adverse effects, and currently there is insufficient evidence to recommend their routine use.

In this work, for the first time, a paradigm shift in the treatment of diabetic retinopathy is proposed: providing localized, supplemental oxygen to the ischemic tissue via an implantable MEMS device. The retinal architecture (e.g., thickness, cell densities, layered structure, etc.) of the rabbit eye exposed to ischemic hypoxic injuries was well preserved after targeted oxygen delivery to the hypoxic tissue, showing that the use of an external source of oxygen could improve the retinal oxygenation and prevent the progression of the ischemic cascade.

The proposed MEMS device transports oxygen from an oxygen-rich space to the oxygen-deficient vitreous, the gel-like fluid that fills the inside of the eye, and then to the ischemic retina. This oxygen transport process is purely passive and completely driven by the gradient of oxygen partial pressure (pO₂). Two types of devices were designed. For the first type, the oxygen-rich space is underneath the conjunctiva, a membrane covering the sclera (white part of the eye), beneath the eyelids and highly permeable to oxygen in the atmosphere when the eye is open. Therefore, sub-conjunctival pO₂ is very high during the daytime. For the second type, the oxygen-rich space is inside the device since pure oxygen is needle-injected into the device on a regular basis.

To prevent too fast or too slow permeation of oxygen through the device that is made of parylene and silicone (two widely used biocompatible polymers in medical devices), the material properties of the hybrid parylene/silicone were investigated, including mechanical behaviors, permeation rates, and adhesive forces. Then the thicknesses of parylene and silicone became important design parameters that were fine-tuned to reach the optimal oxygen permeation rate.

The passive MEMS oxygen transporter devices were designed, built, and tested in both bench-top artificial eye models and in-vitro porcine cadaver eyes. The 3D unsteady saccade-induced laminar flow of water inside the eye model was modeled by computational fluid dynamics to study the convective transport of oxygen inside the eye induced by saccade (rapid eye movement). The saccade-enhanced transport effect was also demonstrated experimentally. Acute in-vivo animal experiments were performed in rabbits and dogs to verify the surgical procedure and the device functionality. Various hypotheses were confirmed both experimentally and computationally, suggesting that both the two types of devices are very promising to cure diabetic retinopathy. The chronic implantation of devices in ischemic dog eyes is still underway.

The proposed MEMS oxygen transporter devices can be also applied to treat other ocular and systemic diseases accompanied by retinal ischemia, such as central retinal artery occlusion, carotid artery disease, and some form of glaucoma.

Robust Control of Evolutionary Dynamics

The application of principles from evolutionary biology has long been used to gain new insights into the progression and clinical control of both infectious diseases and neoplasms. This iterative evolutionary process consists of expansion, diversification and selection within an adaptive landscape - species are subject to random genetic or epigenetic alterations that result in variations; genetic information is inherited through asexual reproduction and strong selective pressures such as therapeutic intervention can lead to the adaptation and expansion of resistant variants. These principles lie at the center of modern evolutionary synthesis and constitute the primary reasons for the development of resistance and therapeutic failure, but also provide a framework that allows for more effective control.

A model system for studying the evolution of resistance and control of therapeutic failure is the treatment of chronic HIV-1 infection by broadly neutralizing antibody (bNAb) therapy. A relatively recent discovery is that a minority of HIV-infected individuals can produce broadly neutralizing antibodies, that is, antibodies that inhibit infection by many strains of HIV. Passive transfer of human antibodies for the prevention and treatment of HIV-1 infection is increasingly being considered as an alternative to a conventional vaccine. However, recent evolution studies have uncovered that antibody treatment can exert selective pressure on virus that results in the rapid evolution of resistance. In certain cases, complete resistance to an antibody is conferred with a single amino acid substitution on the viral envelope of HIV.

The challenges in uncovering resistance mechanisms and designing effective combination strategies to control evolutionary processes and prevent therapeutic failure apply more broadly. We are motivated by two questions: Can we predict the evolution to resistance by characterizing genetic alterations that contribute to modified phenotypic fitness? Given an evolutionary landscape and a set of candidate therapies, can we computationally synthesize treatment strategies that control evolution to resistance?

To address the first question, we propose a mathematical framework to reason about evolutionary dynamics of HIV from computationally derived Gibbs energy fitness landscapes -- expanding the theoretical concept of an evolutionary landscape originally conceived by Sewall Wright to a computable, quantifiable, multidimensional, structurally defined fitness surface upon which to study complex HIV evolutionary outcomes.

To design combination treatment strategies that control evolution to resistance, we propose a methodology that solves for optimal combinations and concentrations of candidate therapies, and allows for the ability to quantifiably explore tradeoffs in treatment design, such as limiting the number of candidate therapies in the combination, dosage constraints and robustness to error. Our algorithm is based on the application of recent results in optimal control to an HIV evolutionary dynamics model and is constructed from experimentally derived antibody resistant phenotypes and their single antibody pharmacodynamics. This method represents a first step towards integrating principled engineering techniques with an experimentally based mathematical model in the rational design of combination treatment strategies and offers predictive understanding of the effects of combination therapies of evolutionary dynamics and resistance of HIV. Preliminary in vitro studies suggest that the combination antibody therapies predicted by our algorithm can neutralize heterogeneous viral populations despite containing resistant mutations.

Study of ion movements in isolated chicken retinas during spreading depression

Spreading depression (SD) is a phenomenon observed in several sections of vertebrate central nervous system. It can occur spontaneously or be evoked by a variety of stimuli, and consists of a wave of depression of the normal electrical activity of the nervous tissue which spreads slowly in all directions in the tissue. This wave of depression is accompanied by several concomitants including ion movements. All the concomitants of SD can be explained by an increase in the sodium permeability of the plasma membranes of cellular elements involved in this phenomenon.

In the chicken retina, SD is accompanied by a transparency change which can be detected with the naked eye. The isolated retina is a thin (0.1 mm) membrane in which the extracellular fluid quickly and completely equilibrates with the incubation solutions. This preparation was therefore used to study the ion movements during SD by measuring and comparing the ion contents and the extracellular space (ECS) of retinas incubated in various solutions of which some inhibited SD, whereas others allowed this phenomenon to occur.

The present study has shown that during SD there is a shift of extracellular sodium into the intracellular compartment of the retina, a release of intracellular K and a decrease in the magnitude of ECS. These results are in agreement with previous postulates about SD, although the in vitro experimental condition makes the ion movements appear larger and the loss of ECS smaller than observed in the intact cortical tissue. The movements of Na and K, in opposite directions, are reversible. The development and magnitudes of SD is very little affected by deprivation of the oxygen supply.

It was established that the inward sodium shift is not a consequence of an arrest of the Na-pump. It can be prevented, together with SD by the membrane stabilizers, magnesium and procaine. Spreading depression and the ion movements are incompletely inhibited by tetrodotoxin, which blocks the sodium influx into nerve fibers during the action potential. The replacement of Na in the bathing solution by Li does not prevent SD, which is accompanied by Li accumulation in the intracellular compartment. From these experiments and others it was concluded that the mechanism underlying SD and the ion shifts is an increase in the sodium permeability of cell membranes.