5 resultados para Maximum draw down

em CaltechTHESIS


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The search for reliable proxies of past deep ocean temperature and salinity has proved difficult, thereby limiting our ability to understand the coupling of ocean circulation and climate over glacial-interglacial timescales. Previous inferences of deep ocean temperature and salinity from sediment pore fluid oxygen isotopes and chlorinity indicate that the deep ocean density structure at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, approximately 20,000 years BP) was set by salinity, and that the density contrast between northern and southern sourced deep waters was markedly greater than in the modern ocean. High density stratification could help explain the marked contrast in carbon isotope distribution recorded in the LGM ocean relative to that we observe today, but what made the ocean's density structure so different at the LGM? How did it evolve from one state to another? Further, given the sparsity of the LGM temperature and salinity data set, what else can we learn by increasing the spatial density of proxy records?

We investigate the cause and feasibility of a highly and salinity stratified deep ocean at the LGM and we work to increase the amount of information we can glean about the past ocean from pore fluid profiles of oxygen isotopes and chloride. Using a coupled ocean--sea ice--ice shelf cavity model we test whether the deep ocean density structure at the LGM can be explained by ice--ocean interactions over the Antarctic continental shelves, and show that a large contribution of the LGM salinity stratification can be explained through lower ocean temperature. In order to extract the maximum information from pore fluid profiles of oxygen isotopes and chloride we evaluate several inverse methods for ill-posed problems and their ability to recover bottom water histories from sediment pore fluid profiles. We demonstrate that Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo parameter estimation techniques enable us to robustly recover the full solution space of bottom water histories, not only at the LGM, but through the most recent deglaciation and the Holocene up to the present. Finally, we evaluate a non-destructive pore fluid sampling technique, Rhizon samplers, in comparison to traditional squeezing methods and show that despite their promise, Rhizons are unlikely to be a good sampling tool for pore fluid measurements of oxygen isotopes and chloride.

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Uncovering the demographics of extrasolar planets is crucial to understanding the processes of their formation and evolution. In this thesis, we present four studies that contribute to this end, three of which relate to NASA's Kepler mission, which has revolutionized the field of exoplanets in the last few years.

In the pre-Kepler study, we investigate a sample of exoplanet spin-orbit measurements---measurements of the inclination of a planet's orbit relative to the spin axis of its host star---to determine whether a dominant planet migration channel can be identified, and at what confidence. Applying methods of Bayesian model comparison to distinguish between the predictions of several different migration models, we find that the data strongly favor a two-mode migration scenario combining planet-planet scattering and disk migration over a single-mode Kozai migration scenario. While we test only the predictions of particular Kozai and scattering migration models in this work, these methods may be used to test the predictions of any other spin-orbit misaligning mechanism.

We then present two studies addressing astrophysical false positives in Kepler data. The Kepler mission has identified thousands of transiting planet candidates, and only relatively few have yet been dynamically confirmed as bona fide planets, with only a handful more even conceivably amenable to future dynamical confirmation. As a result, the ability to draw detailed conclusions about the diversity of exoplanet systems from Kepler detections relies critically on understanding the probability that any individual candidate might be a false positive. We show that a typical a priori false positive probability for a well-vetted Kepler candidate is only about 5-10%, enabling confidence in demographic studies that treat candidates as true planets. We also present a detailed procedure that can be used to securely and efficiently validate any individual transit candidate using detailed information of the signal's shape as well as follow-up observations, if available.

Finally, we calculate an empirical, non-parametric estimate of the shape of the radius distribution of small planets with periods less than 90 days orbiting cool (less than 4000K) dwarf stars in the Kepler catalog. This effort reveals several notable features of the distribution, in particular a maximum in the radius function around 1-1.25 Earth radii and a steep drop-off in the distribution larger than 2 Earth radii. Even more importantly, the methods presented in this work can be applied to a broader subsample of Kepler targets to understand how the radius function of planets changes across different types of host stars.

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Thrust fault earthquakes are investigated in the laboratory by generating dynamic shear ruptures along pre-existing frictional faults in rectangular plates. A considerable body of evidence suggests that dip-slip earthquakes exhibit enhanced ground motions in the acute hanging wall wedge as an outcome of broken symmetry between hanging and foot wall plates with respect to the earth surface. To understand the physical behavior of thrust fault earthquakes, particularly ground motions near the earth surface, ruptures are nucleated in analog laboratory experiments and guided up-dip towards the simulated earth surface. The transient slip event and emitted radiation mimic a natural thrust earthquake. High-speed photography and laser velocimeters capture the rupture evolution, outputting a full-field view of photo-elastic fringe contours proportional to maximum shearing stresses as well as continuous ground motion velocity records at discrete points on the specimen. Earth surface-normal measurements validate selective enhancement of hanging wall ground motions for both sub-Rayleigh and super-shear rupture speeds. The earth surface breaks upon rupture tip arrival to the fault trace, generating prominent Rayleigh surface waves. A rupture wave is sensed in the hanging wall but is, however, absent from the foot wall plate: a direct consequence of proximity from fault to seismometer. Signatures in earth surface-normal records attenuate with distance from the fault trace. Super-shear earthquakes feature greater amplitudes of ground shaking profiles, as expected from the increased tectonic pressures required to induce super-shear transition. Paired stations measure fault parallel and fault normal ground motions at various depths, which yield slip and opening rates through direct subtraction of like components. Peak fault slip and opening rates associated with the rupture tip increase with proximity to the fault trace, a result of selective ground motion amplification in the hanging wall. Fault opening rates indicate that the hanging and foot walls detach near the earth surface, a phenomenon promoted by a decrease in magnitude of far-field tectonic loads. Subsequent shutting of the fault sends an opening pulse back down-dip. In case of a sub-Rayleigh earthquake, feedback from the reflected S wave re-ruptures the locked fault at super-shear speeds, providing another mechanism of super-shear transition.

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The emphasis in reactor physics research has shifted toward investigations of fast reactors. The effects of high energy neutron processes have thus become fundamental to our understanding, and one of the most important of these processes is nuclear inelastic scattering. In this research we include inelastic scattering as a primary energy transfer mechanism, and study the resultant neutron energy spectrum in an infinite medium. We assume that the moderator material has a high mass number, so that in a laboratory coordinate system the energy loss of an inelastically scattered neutron may be taken as discrete. It is then consistent to treat elastic scattering with an age theory expansion. Mathematically these assumptions lead to balance equations of the differential-difference type.

The steady state problem is explored first by way of Laplace transformation of the energy variable. We then develop another steady state technique, valid for multiple inelastic level excitations, which depends on the level structure satisfying a physically reasonable constraint. In all cases the solutions we generate are compared with results obtained by modeling inelastic scattering with a separable, evaporative kernel.

The time dependent problem presents some new difficulties. By modeling the elastic scattering cross section in a particular way, we generate solutions to this more interesting problem. We conjecture the method of characteristics may be useful in analyzing time dependent problems with general cross sections. These ideas are briefly explored.

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Isotopic fractionation due to sputtering has been investigated via a collector type experiment in which targets of known isotopic composition have been bombarded with several keV Ar+ and Xe+ ions with fluences down to 3.0x1014 ions/cm2 , believed to be the lowest fluences for which such detailed measurements have ever been made. The isotopes were sputtered onto carbon collectors and analyzed with Secondary Ion Mass Spectroscopy (SIMS.) There is clear indication of preferential effects several times that predicted by the dominant analytical theory. Results also show a fairly strong angular variation in the fractionation. The maximum effect is usually seen in the near normal direction, measured from the target surface, falling continuously, by a few percent in some cases, to a minimum in the oblique direction. Measurements have been made using Mo isotopes: 100Mo and 92Mo and a liquid metal system of In:Ga eutectic. The light isotope of Mo is found to suffer a 53 ± 5‰ (note: 1.0‰ ≡ 0.1%) enrichment in the sputtered flux in the near normal direction, compared to the steady state near normal sputtered composition, under 5.0 keV Xe+ bombardment of 3.0 x 1014 ions/cm2. In the liquid metal study only the angular dependence of the fractionation could be measured due to the lack of a well defined reference and the nature of the liquid surface, which is able to 'repair' itself during the course of a bombardment. The results show that 113In is preferentially sputtered over 115In in the near normal direction by about 8.7 ± 2.7‰ compared to the oblique direction. 69Ga, on the other hand, is sputtered preferentially over 71Ga in the oblique direction by about 13 ± 4.4‰ with respect to the near normal direction.