The relationship between the radio and gamma-ray emission of blazars

Blazars are active galaxies with a jet closely oriented to our line of sight. They are powerful, variable emitters from radio to gamma-ray wavelengths. Although the general picture of synchrotron emission at low energies and inverse Compton at high energies is well established, important aspects of blazars are not well understood. In particular, the location of the gamma-ray emission region is not clearly established, with some theories favoring a location close to the central engine, while others place it at parsec scales in the radio jet.

We developed a program to locate the gamma-ray emission site in blazars, through the study of correlated variations between their gamma-ray and radio-wave emission. Correlated variations are expected when there is a relation between emission processes at both bands, while delays tell us about the relative location of their energy generation zones. Monitoring at 15 GHz using the Owens Valley Radio Observatory 40 meter telescope started in mid-2007. The program monitors 1593 blazars twice per week, including all blazars detected by the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope (Fermi) north of -20 degrees declination. This program complements the continuous monitoring of gamma-rays by Fermi.

Three year long gamma-ray light curves for bright Fermi blazars are cross-correlated with four years of radio monitoring. The significance of cross-correlation peaks is investigated using simulations that account for the uneven sampling and noise properties of the light curves, which are modeled as red-noise processes with a simple power-law power spectral density. We found that out of 86 sources with high quality data, only three show significant correlations (AO 0235+164, B2 2308+34 and PKS 1502+106). Additionally, we find a significant correlation for Mrk 421 when including the strong gamma-ray/radio flare of late 2012. In all four cases radio variations lag gamma-ray variations, suggesting that the gamma-ray emission originates upstream of the radio emission. For PKS 1502+106 we locate the gamma-ray emission site parsecs away from the central engine, thus disfavoring the model of Blandford and Levinson (1995), while other cases are inconclusive. These findings show that continuous monitoring over long time periods is required to understand the cross-correlation between gamma-ray and radio-wave variability in most blazars.

Real-Time Bayesian Analysis of Ground Motion Envelopes for Earthquake Early Warning

Current earthquake early warning systems usually make magnitude and location predictions and send out a warning to the users based on those predictions. We describe an algorithm that assesses the validity of the predictions in real-time. Our algorithm monitors the envelopes of horizontal and vertical acceleration, velocity, and displacement. We compare the observed envelopes with the ones predicted by Cua & Heaton's envelope ground motion prediction equations (Cua 2005). We define a "test function" as the logarithm of the ratio between observed and predicted envelopes at every second in real-time. Once the envelopes deviate beyond an acceptable threshold, we declare a misfit. Kurtosis and skewness of a time evolving test function are used to rapidly identify a misfit. Real-time kurtosis and skewness calculations are also inputs to both probabilistic (Logistic Regression and Bayesian Logistic Regression) and nonprobabilistic (Least Squares and Linear Discriminant Analysis) models that ultimately decide if there is an unacceptable level of misfit. This algorithm is designed to work at a wide range of amplitude scales. When tested with synthetic and actual seismic signals from past events, it works for both small and large events.