Markets and microstructure

This document contains three papers examining the microstructure of financial interaction in development and market settings. I first examine the industrial organization of financial exchanges, specifically limit order markets. In this section, I perform a case study of Google stock surrounding a surprising earnings announcement in the 3rd quarter of 2009, uncovering parameters that describe information flows and liquidity provision. I then explore the disbursement process for community-driven development projects. This section is game theoretic in nature, using a novel three-player ultimatum structure. I finally develop econometric tools to simulate equilibrium and identify equilibrium models in limit order markets.

In chapter two, I estimate an equilibrium model using limit order data, finding parameters that describe information and liquidity preferences for trading. As a case study, I estimate the model for Google stock surrounding an unexpected good-news earnings announcement in the 3rd quarter of 2009. I find a substantial decrease in asymmetric information prior to the earnings announcement. I also simulate counterfactual dealer markets and find empirical evidence that limit order markets perform more efficiently than do their dealer market counterparts.

In chapter three, I examine Community-Driven Development. Community-Driven Development is considered a tool empowering communities to develop their own aid projects. While evidence has been mixed as to the effectiveness of CDD in achieving disbursement to intended beneficiaries, the literature maintains that local elites generally take control of most programs. I present a three player ultimatum game which describes a potential decentralized aid procurement process. Players successively split a dollar in aid money, and the final player--the targeted community member--decides between whistle blowing or not. Despite the elite capture present in my model, I find conditions under which money reaches targeted recipients. My results describe a perverse possibility in the decentralized aid process which could make detection of elite capture more difficult than previously considered. These processes may reconcile recent empirical work claiming effectiveness of the decentralized aid process with case studies which claim otherwise.

In chapter four, I develop in more depth the empirical and computational means to estimate model parameters in the case study in chapter two. I describe the liquidity supplier problem and equilibrium among those suppliers. I then outline the analytical forms for computing certainty-equivalent utilities for the informed trader. Following this, I describe a recursive algorithm which facilitates computing equilibrium in supply curves. Finally, I outline implementation of the Method of Simulated Moments in this context, focusing on Indirect Inference and formulating the pseudo model.

On the local Tamagawa number conjecture for Tate motives

There is a wonderful conjecture of Bloch and Kato that generalizes both the analytic Class Number Formula and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture. The conjecture itself was generalized by Fukaya and Kato to an equivariant formulation. In this thesis, I provide a new proof for the equivariant local Tamagawa number conjecture in the case of Tate motives for unramified fields, using Iwasawa theory and (φ,Γ)-modules, and provide some work towards extending the proof to tamely ramified fields.

A comparison of the costs of operation of the motor bus, Birney safety car, and trolley bus on the local transportation routes in Pasadena

With the installation by the Pacific Electric Railway of a bus system in Pasadena to supplant most of its trolley lines, the problem of the comparison of the costs of the two systems naturally presented itself. The study here undertaken was originally started as just a comparison of the motor bus and Birney Safety Car, but as the work progressed it seemed advisable to include the trolley bus as well - a method of transportation that is comparatively new as far as development is concerned, but which seems to be finding increasing favor in the East.

Influence of local geology on earthquake ground motion

As a simplified approach for estimating theoretically the influence of local subsoils upon the ground motion during an earthquake, the problem of an idealized layered system subjected to vertically incident plane body waves was studied. Both the technique of steady-state analysis and the technique of transient analysis have been used to analyze the problem.

In the steady-state analysis, a recursion formula has been derived for obtaining the response of a layered system to sinusoidally steady-state input. Several conclusions are drawn concerning the nature of the amplification spectrum of a nonviscous layered system having its layer stiffnesses increasing with depth. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the effect of layer parameters on the amplification spectrum of a layered system.

In the transient analysis, two modified shear beam models have been established for obtaining approximately the response of a layered system to earthquake-like excitation. The method of continuous modal analysis was adopted for approximate analysis of the models, with energy dissipation in the layers, if any, taken into account. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the accuracy of the models and the effect of a layered system in modifying the input motion.

Conditions are established, under which the theory is applicable to predict the influence of local subsoils on the ground motion during an earthquake. To demonstrate the applicability of the models to actual cases, three examples of actually recorded earthquake events are examined. It is concluded that significant modification of the incoming seismic waves, as predicted by the theory, is likely to occur in well defined soft subsoils during an earthquake, provided that certain conditions concerning the nature of the incoming seismic waves are satisfied.

Structure theorems for noncommutative complete local rings

If R is a ring with identity, let N(R) denote the Jacobson radical of R. R is local if R/N(R) is an artinian simple ring and ∩N(R)ⁱ = 0. It is known that if R is complete in the N(R)-adic topology then R is equal to (B)_n, the full n by n matrix ring over B where E/N(E) is a division ring. The main results of the thesis deal with the structure of such rings B. In fact we have the following.

If B is a complete local algebra over F where B/N(B) is a finite dimensional normal extension of F and N(B) is finitely generated as a left ideal by k elements, then there exist automorphisms g_i,...,g_k of B/N(B) over F such that B is a homomorphic image of B/N[[x₁,…,x_k;g₁,…,g_k]] the power series ring over B/N(B) in noncommuting indeterminates x_i, where x_ib = g_i(b)x_i for all b ϵ B/N.

Another theorem generalizes this result to complete local rings which have suitable commutative subrings. As a corollary of this we have the following. Let B be a complete local ring with B/N(B) a finite field. If N(B) is finitely generated as a left ideal by k elements then there exist automorphisms g₁,…,g_k of a v-ring V such that B is a homomorphic image of V [[x₁,…,x_k;g₁,…,g_k]].

In both these results it is essential to know the structure of N(B) as a two sided module over a suitable subring of B.

Lurking in ULIRGs: Molecular Gas in local Merging Galaxies

Mergers and interacting galaxies are pivotal to the evolution of galaxies in the universe. They are the sites of prodigious star formation and key to understanding the starburst processes: the physical and chemical properties and the dynamics of the molecular gas. ULIRGs or Ultraluminous Infrared Galaxies are a result of many of these mergers. They host extreme starbursts, AGNs, and mergers. They are the perfect laboratory to probe the connection between starbursts, black hole accretion and mergers and to further our understanding of star formation and merging.

NGC 6240 and Arp 220 can be considered the founding members of this very active class of objects. They are in different stages of merging and hence are excellent case studies to further our understanding about the merging process. We have imaged the dense star-forming regions of these galaxies at sub-arcsec resolution with CARMA C and B Configurations (2" and 0.5 - 0.8"). Multi-band imaging allows excitation analysis of HCN, HCO⁺, HNC, and CS along with CO transitions to constrain the properties of the gas. Our dataset is unique in that we have observed these lines at similar resolutions and high sensitivity which can be used to derive line ratios of faint high excitation lines.

Arp 220 has not had confirmed X-ray AGN detections for either nuclei. However, our observations indicate HCN/HNC ratios consistent with the chemistry of X-ray Dominated Regions (XDRs) -- a likely symptom of AGN. We calculated the molecular Hydrogen densities using each of the molecular species and conclude that assuming abundances of HNC and HCO⁺ similar to those in galactic sources are incorrect in the case of ULIRGs. The physical conditions in the dense molecular gas in ULIRGs alter these abundances. The derived H2 volume densities are ~ 5 x 10⁴ cm^-3 in both Arp 220 nuclei and ~ 10⁴ cm^-3 in NGC 6240.