Real-time load-side control of electric power systems

Two trends are emerging from modern electric power systems: the growth of renewable (e.g., solar and wind) generation, and the integration of information technologies and advanced power electronics. The former introduces large, rapid, and random fluctuations in power supply, demand, frequency, and voltage, which become a major challenge for real-time operation of power systems. The latter creates a tremendous number of controllable intelligent endpoints such as smart buildings and appliances, electric vehicles, energy storage devices, and power electronic devices that can sense, compute, communicate, and actuate. Most of these endpoints are distributed on the load side of power systems, in contrast to traditional control resources such as centralized bulk generators. This thesis focuses on controlling power systems in real time, using these load side resources. Specifically, it studies two problems.

(1) Distributed load-side frequency control: We establish a mathematical framework to design distributed frequency control algorithms for flexible electric loads. In this framework, we formulate a category of optimization problems, called optimal load control (OLC), to incorporate the goals of frequency control, such as balancing power supply and demand, restoring frequency to its nominal value, restoring inter-area power flows, etc., in a way that minimizes total disutility for the loads to participate in frequency control by deviating from their nominal power usage. By exploiting distributed algorithms to solve OLC and analyzing convergence of these algorithms, we design distributed load-side controllers and prove stability of closed-loop power systems governed by these controllers. This general framework is adapted and applied to different types of power systems described by different models, or to achieve different levels of control goals under different operation scenarios. We first consider a dynamically coherent power system which can be equivalently modeled with a single synchronous machine. We then extend our framework to a multi-machine power network, where we consider primary and secondary frequency controls, linear and nonlinear power flow models, and the interactions between generator dynamics and load control.

(2) Two-timescale voltage control: The voltage of a power distribution system must be maintained closely around its nominal value in real time, even in the presence of highly volatile power supply or demand. For this purpose, we jointly control two types of reactive power sources: a capacitor operating at a slow timescale, and a power electronic device, such as a smart inverter or a D-STATCOM, operating at a fast timescale. Their control actions are solved from optimal power flow problems at two timescales. Specifically, the slow-timescale problem is a chance-constrained optimization, which minimizes power loss and regulates the voltage at the current time instant while limiting the probability of future voltage violations due to stochastic changes in power supply or demand. This control framework forms the basis of an optimal sizing problem, which determines the installation capacities of the control devices by minimizing the sum of power loss and capital cost. We develop computationally efficient heuristics to solve the optimal sizing problem and implement real-time control. Numerical experiments show that the proposed sizing and control schemes significantly improve the reliability of voltage control with a moderate increase in cost.

Asymptotic analysis of thin plates under normal load and horizontal edge thrust

We consider the radially symmetric nonlinear von Kármán plate equations for circular or annular plates in the limit of small thickness. The loads on the plate consist of a radially symmetric pressure load and a uniform edge load. The dependence of the steady states on the edge load and thickness is studied using asymptotics as well as numerical calculations. The von Kármán plate equations are a singular perturbation of the Fӧppl membrane equation in the asymptotic limit of small thickness. We study the role of compressive membrane solutions in the small thickness asymptotic behavior of the plate solutions.

We give evidence for the existence of a singular compressive solution for the circular membrane and show by a singular perturbation expansion that the nonsingular compressive solution approach this singular solution as the radial stress at the center of the plate vanishes. In this limit, an infinite number of folds occur with respect to the edge load. Similar behavior is observed for the annular membrane with zero edge load at the inner radius in the limit as the circumferential stress vanishes.

We develop multiscale expansions, which are asymptotic to members of this family for plates with edges that are elastically supported against rotation. At some thicknesses this approximation breaks down and a boundary layer appears at the center of the plate. In the limit of small normal load, the points of breakdown approach the bifurcation points corresponding to buckling of the nondeflected state. A uniform asymptotic expansion for small thickness combining the boundary layer with a multiscale approximation of the outer solution is developed for this case. These approximations complement the well known boundary layer expansions based on tensile membrane solutions in describing the bending and stretching of thin plates. The approximation becomes inconsistent as the clamped state is approached by increasing the resistance against rotation at the edge. We prove that such an expansion for the clamped circular plate cannot exist unless the pressure load is self-equilibrating.

Statistical and econometric analysis of the treatment of HIV/AIDS

The epidemic of HIV/AIDS in the United States is constantly changing and evolving, starting from patient zero to now an estimated 650,000 to 900,000 Americans infected. The nature and course of HIV changed dramatically with the introduction of antiretrovirals. This discourse examines many different facets of HIV from the beginning where there wasn't any treatment for HIV until the present era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). By utilizing statistical analysis of clinical data, this paper examines where we were, where we are and projections as to where treatment of HIV/AIDS is headed.

Chapter Two describes the datasets that were used for the analyses. The primary database utilized was collected by myself from an outpatient HIV clinic. The data included dates from 1984 until the present. The second database was from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) public dataset. The data from the MACS cover the time between 1984 and October 1992. Comparisons are made between both datasets.

Chapter Three discusses where we were. Before the first anti-HIV drugs (called antiretrovirals) were approved, there was no treatment to slow the progression of HIV. The first generation of antiretrovirals, reverse transcriptase inhibitors such as AZT (zidovudine), DDI (didanosine), DDC (zalcitabine), and D4T (stavudine) provided the first treatment for HIV. The first clinical trials showed that these antiretrovirals had a significant impact on increasing patient survival. The trials also showed that patients on these drugs had increased CD4+ T cell counts. Chapter Three examines the distributions of CD4 T cell counts. The results show that the estimated distributions of CD4 T cell counts are distinctly non-Gaussian. Thus distributional assumptions regarding CD4 T cell counts must be taken, into account when performing analyses with this marker. The results also show the estimated CD4 T cell distributions for each disease stage: asymptomatic, symptomatic and AIDS are non-Gaussian. Interestingly, the distribution of CD4 T cell counts for the asymptomatic period is significantly below that of the CD4 T cell distribution for the uninfected population suggesting that even in patients with no outward symptoms of HIV infection, there exists high levels of immunosuppression.

Chapter Four discusses where we are at present. HIV quickly grew resistant to reverse transcriptase inhibitors which were given sequentially as mono or dual therapy. As resistance grew, the positive effects of the reverse transcriptase inhibitors on CD4 T cell counts and survival dissipated. As the old era faded a new era characterized by a new class of drugs and new technology changed the way that we treat HIV-infected patients. Viral load assays were able to quantify the levels of HIV RNA in the blood. By quantifying the viral load, one now had a faster, more direct way to test antiretroviral regimen efficacy. Protease inhibitors, which attacked a different region of HIV than reverse transcriptase inhibitors, when used in combination with other antiretroviral agents were found to dramatically and significantly reduce the HIV RNA levels in the blood. Patients also experienced significant increases in CD4 T cell counts. For the first time in the epidemic, there was hope. It was hypothesized that with HAART, viral levels could be kept so low that the immune system as measured by CD4 T cell counts would be able to recover. If these viral levels could be kept low enough, it would be possible for the immune system to eradicate the virus. The hypothesis of immune reconstitution, that is bringing CD4 T cell counts up to levels seen in uninfected patients, is tested in Chapter Four. It was found that for these patients, there was not enough of a CD4 T cell increase to be consistent with the hypothesis of immune reconstitution.

In Chapter Five, the effectiveness of long-term HAART is analyzed. Survival analysis was conducted on 213 patients on long-term HAART. The primary endpoint was presence of an AIDS defining illness. A high level of clinical failure, or progression to an endpoint, was found.

Chapter Six yields insights into where we are going. New technology such as viral genotypic testing, that looks at the genetic structure of HIV and determines where mutations have occurred, has shown that HIV is capable of producing resistance mutations that confer multiple drug resistance. This section looks at resistance issues and speculates, ceterus parabis, where the state of HIV is going. This section first addresses viral genotype and the correlates of viral load and disease progression. A second analysis looks at patients who have failed their primary attempts at HAART and subsequent salvage therapy. It was found that salvage regimens, efforts to control viral replication through the administration of different combinations of antiretrovirals, were not effective in 90 percent of the population in controlling viral replication. Thus, primary attempts at therapy offer the best change of viral suppression and delay of disease progression. Documentation of transmission of drug-resistant virus suggests that the public health crisis of HIV is far from over. Drug resistant HIV can sustain the epidemic and hamper our efforts to treat HIV infection. The data presented suggest that the decrease in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV/AIDS is transient. Deaths due to HIV will increase and public health officials must prepare for this eventuality unless new treatments become available. These results also underscore the importance of the vaccine effort.

The final chapter looks at the economic issues related to HIV. The direct and indirect costs of treating HIV/AIDS are very high. For the first time in the epidemic, there exists treatment that can actually slow disease progression. The direct costs for HAART are estimated. It is estimated that the direct lifetime costs for treating each HIV infected patient with HAART is between $353,000 to $598,000 depending on how long HAART prolongs life. If one looks at the incremental cost per year of life saved it is only $101,000. This is comparable with the incremental costs per year of life saved from coronary artery bypass surgery.

Policy makers need to be aware that although HAART can delay disease progression, it is not a cure and HIV is not over. The results presented here suggest that the decreases in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV are transient. Policymakers need to be prepared for the eventual increase in AIDS incidence and mortality. Costs associated with HIV/AIDS are also projected to increase. The cost savings seen recently have been from the dramatic decreases in the incidence of AIDS defining opportunistic infections. As patients who have been on HAART the longest start to progress to AIDS, policymakers and insurance companies will find that the cost of treating HIV/AIDS will increase.

Self-healing Techniques for RF and mm-Wave Transmitters and Receivers

With continuing advances in CMOS technology, feature sizes of modern Silicon chip-sets have gone down drastically over the past decade. In addition to desktops and laptop processors, a vast majority of these chips are also being deployed in mobile communication devices like smart-phones and tablets, where multiple radio-frequency integrated circuits (RFICs) must be integrated into one device to cater to a wide variety of applications such as Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, NFC, wireless charging, etc. While a small feature size enables higher integration levels leading to billions of transistors co-existing on a single chip, it also makes these Silicon ICs more susceptible to variations. A part of these variations can be attributed to the manufacturing process itself, particularly due to the stringent dimensional tolerances associated with the lithographic steps in modern processes. Additionally, RF or millimeter-wave communication chip-sets are subject to another type of variation caused by dynamic changes in the operating environment. Another bottleneck in the development of high performance RF/mm-wave Silicon ICs is the lack of accurate analog/high-frequency models in nanometer CMOS processes. This can be primarily attributed to the fact that most cutting edge processes are geared towards digital system implementation and as such there is little model-to-hardware correlation at RF frequencies.

All these issues have significantly degraded yield of high performance mm-wave and RF CMOS systems which often require multiple trial-and-error based Silicon validations, thereby incurring additional production costs. This dissertation proposes a low overhead technique which attempts to counter the detrimental effects of these variations, thereby improving both performance and yield of chips post fabrication in a systematic way. The key idea behind this approach is to dynamically sense the performance of the system, identify when a problem has occurred, and then actuate it back to its desired performance level through an intelligent on-chip optimization algorithm. We term this technique as self-healing drawing inspiration from nature's own way of healing the body against adverse environmental effects. To effectively demonstrate the efficacy of self-healing in CMOS systems, several representative examples are designed, fabricated, and measured against a variety of operating conditions.

We demonstrate a high-power mm-wave segmented power mixer array based transmitter architecture that is capable of generating high-speed and non-constant envelope modulations at higher efficiencies compared to existing conventional designs. We then incorporate several sensors and actuators into the design and demonstrate closed-loop healing against a wide variety of non-ideal operating conditions. We also demonstrate fully-integrated self-healing in the context of another mm-wave power amplifier, where measurements were performed across several chips, showing significant improvements in performance as well as reduced variability in the presence of process variations and load impedance mismatch, as well as catastrophic transistor failure. Finally, on the receiver side, a closed-loop self-healing phase synthesis scheme is demonstrated in conjunction with a wide-band voltage controlled oscillator to generate phase shifter local oscillator (LO) signals for a phased array receiver. The system is shown to heal against non-idealities in the LO signal generation and distribution, significantly reducing phase errors across a wide range of frequencies.

Distributed Load Control in Multiphase Radial Networks

The current power grid is on the cusp of modernization due to the emergence of distributed generation and controllable loads, as well as renewable energy. On one hand, distributed and renewable generation is volatile and difficult to dispatch. On the other hand, controllable loads provide significant potential for compensating for the uncertainties. In a future grid where there are thousands or millions of controllable loads and a large portion of the generation comes from volatile sources like wind and solar, distributed control that shifts or reduces the power consumption of electric loads in a reliable and economic way would be highly valuable.

Load control needs to be conducted with network awareness. Otherwise, voltage violations and overloading of circuit devices are likely. To model these effects, network power flows and voltages have to be considered explicitly. However, the physical laws that determine power flows and voltages are nonlinear. Furthermore, while distributed generation and controllable loads are mostly located in distribution networks that are multiphase and radial, most of the power flow studies focus on single-phase networks.

This thesis focuses on distributed load control in multiphase radial distribution networks. In particular, we first study distributed load control without considering network constraints, and then consider network-aware distributed load control.

Distributed implementation of load control is the main challenge if network constraints can be ignored. In this case, we first ignore the uncertainties in renewable generation and load arrivals, and propose a distributed load control algorithm, Algorithm 1, that optimally schedules the deferrable loads to shape the net electricity demand. Deferrable loads refer to loads whose total energy consumption is fixed, but energy usage can be shifted over time in response to network conditions. Algorithm 1 is a distributed gradient decent algorithm, and empirically converges to optimal deferrable load schedules within 15 iterations.

We then extend Algorithm 1 to a real-time setup where deferrable loads arrive over time, and only imprecise predictions about future renewable generation and load are available at the time of decision making. The real-time algorithm Algorithm 2 is based on model-predictive control: Algorithm 2 uses updated predictions on renewable generation as the true values, and computes a pseudo load to simulate future deferrable load. The pseudo load consumes 0 power at the current time step, and its total energy consumption equals the expectation of future deferrable load total energy request.

Network constraints, e.g., transformer loading constraints and voltage regulation constraints, bring significant challenge to the load control problem since power flows and voltages are governed by nonlinear physical laws. Remarkably, distribution networks are usually multiphase and radial. Two approaches are explored to overcome this challenge: one based on convex relaxation and the other that seeks a locally optimal load schedule.

To explore the convex relaxation approach, a novel but equivalent power flow model, the branch flow model, is developed, and a semidefinite programming relaxation, called BFM-SDP, is obtained using the branch flow model. BFM-SDP is mathematically equivalent to a standard convex relaxation proposed in the literature, but numerically is much more stable. Empirical studies show that BFM-SDP is numerically exact for the IEEE 13-, 34-, 37-, 123-bus networks and a real-world 2065-bus network, while the standard convex relaxation is numerically exact for only two of these networks.

Theoretical guarantees on the exactness of convex relaxations are provided for two types of networks: single-phase radial alternative-current (AC) networks, and single-phase mesh direct-current (DC) networks. In particular, for single-phase radial AC networks, we prove that a second-order cone program (SOCP) relaxation is exact if voltage upper bounds are not binding; we also modify the optimal load control problem so that its SOCP relaxation is always exact. For single-phase mesh DC networks, we prove that an SOCP relaxation is exact if 1) voltage upper bounds are not binding, or 2) voltage upper bounds are uniform and power injection lower bounds are strictly negative; we also modify the optimal load control problem so that its SOCP relaxation is always exact.

To seek a locally optimal load schedule, a distributed gradient-decent algorithm, Algorithm 9, is proposed. The suboptimality gap of the algorithm is rigorously characterized and close to 0 for practical networks. Furthermore, unlike the convex relaxation approach, Algorithm 9 ensures a feasible solution. The gradients used in Algorithm 9 are estimated based on a linear approximation of the power flow, which is derived with the following assumptions: 1) line losses are negligible; and 2) voltages are reasonably balanced. Both assumptions are satisfied in practical distribution networks. Empirical results show that Algorithm 9 obtains 70+ times speed up over the convex relaxation approach, at the cost of a suboptimality within numerical precision.

Nuclear Energy Levels of ^31S and ^33Cl

The reaction ³²S(³He, α) ³¹S has been used to locate 42 levels in ³¹S. For 11 of the first 17 levels ℓ_n-values have been determined. The first 6 excited states of ³¹S have been studied by applying the particle-gamma correlation method of Litherland and Ferguson (their Method II) to the reaction ³²S(³He, αγ) ³¹S. The resulting spins and parities are: E_X, J^π = 1.25 MeV, 3/2⁺; 2.23 MeV, 5/2⁺; 3.08 MeV, 1/2⁺; 3.29 MeV, 5/2⁺, 3/2⁺; 3.35 MeV, 7/2, 3/2; 3.44 MeV, 3/2⁺. Mixing and branching ratios have also been determined. The ground state Q-value for the reaction ³²S(³He, α)³¹S has been measured to be 5.538 ± 0.006 MeV. Analysis of the spectra of the reaction ³²S(³He, α)³³Cl which were obtained as a by-product of the spectra of the reaction ³²S(³He, α) ³¹S located levels in ³³Cl at the following excitation energies: 0, 810 ± 9, (1978 ± 14), 2351 ± 9, 2686 ± 8, 2848 ± 9 (a known doublet), 2980 ± 9, and 4119 ± 10 keV. The 2.0 MeV level was only weakly populated, and to confirm its existence the reaction ³⁶Ar(p, α)³³Cl has been studied. In this reaction the 2.0 MeV level was strongly populated and the measured excitation energy was 1999 ± 20 keV. The experimental results for ³¹S and ³³Cl are compared with their analogs and with nuclear model predictions.

Stress and load calculation for unknown building

Not available.

Nuclear reactions leading to energy levels of Ar37 and K37

In view of recent interest in the Cl³⁷ (ʋ solar’^e-)Ar³⁷ reaction cross section, information on some aspects of mass 37 nuclei has been obtained using the K³⁹ (d, ∝) Ar³⁷ and Cl³⁵ (He³, p) Ar³⁷ reactions. Ar³⁷ levels have been found at 0, 1.41, 1.62, 2.22, 2.50, 2.80, 3.17, 3.27, 3.53, 3.61, 3.71, (3.75), (3.90), 3.94, 4.02, (4.21), 4.28, 4.32, 4.40, 4.45, 4.58, 4.63, 4.74, 4.89, 4.98, 5.05, 5.10, 5.13, 5.21, 5.35, 5.41, 5.44, 5.54, 5.58, 5.67, 5.77, and 5.85 MeV (the underlined values correspond to previously tabulated levels). The nuclear temperature calculated from the Ar³⁷ level density is 1.4 MeV. Angular distributions of the lowest six levels with the K³⁹ (d, ∝) Ar³⁷ reaction at E_d = 10 MeV indicate a dominant direct interaction mechanism and the inapplicability of the 2I + 1 rule of the statistical model. Comparison of the spectra obtained with the K³⁹ (d, ∝) Ar³⁷ and Cl³⁵ (He³, p) Ar³⁷ reactions leads to the suggestion that the 5.13-MeV level is the T = 3/2 Cl³⁷ ground state analog. The ground state Q-value of the Ca⁴⁰ (p, ∝) K³⁷ reaction has been measured: -5179 ± 9 keV. This value implies a K³⁷ mass excess of -24804 ± 10 keV. Description of a NMR magnetometer and a sixteen-detector array used in conjunction with a 61-cm double-focusing magnetic spectrometer are included in appendices.

Electromagnetic decay of the 1.7- and 2.43-MeV levels in ^9Be

The 1.7- and 2.43-MeV levels in ⁹Be were populated with the reaction ¹¹B(d, α)⁹Be* by bombarding thin boron on carbon foils with 1.7-MeV deuterons. The alpha particles were analyzed in energy with a surface-barrier counter set at the unique kinematically determined angle and the recoiling ⁹Be nuclei at 90^o were analyzed in rigidity with a magnetic spectrometer, in energy by a surface-barrier counter at the spectrometer focus, and in velocity by the time delay between an alpha and a ⁹Be count. When a pulse from the spectrometer counter was in the appropriate delayed coincidence with a pulse from the alpha counter, the two pulses were recorded in a two-dimensional pulse height analyzer. Most of the ⁹Be* decay by particle breakup. Only those that gamma decay are detected by the spectrometer counter. Thus the experiment provides a direct measurement of Γ_rad/Γ. Analysis of 384 observed events gives Γ_rad/Γ = (1.16 ± 0.14) X 10^-4 for the 2.43-MeV level. Combining this ratio with the value of Γ_rad = 0.122 ± 0.015 eV found from inelastic electron scattering gives Γ = (1.05 ± 0.18) keV. For the 1.7-MeV level, an upper limit, Γ_rad/Γ ≤ 2.4 = 10^-5, was determined.

Determination of electronic energy levels of molecules by 90° low energy electron scattering

A review of the theory of electron scattering indicates that low incident beam energies and large scattering angles are the favorable conditions for the observation of optically forbidden transitions in atoms and molecules.

An apparatus capable of yielding electron impact spectra at 90° with incident electron beam energies between 30 and 50 electron volts is described. The resolution of the instrument is about 1 electron volt.

Impact spectra of thirteen molecules have been obtained. Known forbidden transitions to the helium 2³S, the hydrogen b³Ʃ⁺_u, the nitrogen A³Ʃ⁺_u, B³π_g, a’π_g, and C³π_u, the carbon monoxide a³π, the ethylene ᾶ³B_1u, and the benzene ᾶ³B_1u states from the corresponding ground states have been observed.

In addition, singlet-triplet vertical transitions in acetylene, propyne, propadiene, norbornadiene and quadricyclene, peaking at 5.9, 5.9, 4.5, 3.8, and 4.0 ev (±0.2 ev), respectively, have been observed and assigned for the first time.