An economic air pollution control model-application : photochemical smog in Los Angeles County in 1975

An economic air pollution control model, which determines the least cost of reaching various air quality levels, is formulated. The model takes the form of a general, nonlinear, mathematical programming problem. Primary contaminant emission levels are the independent variables. The objective function is the cost of attaining various emission levels and is to be minimized subject to constraints that given air quality levels be attained.

The model is applied to a simplified statement of the photochemical smog problem in Los Angeles County in 1975 with emissions specified by a two-dimensional vector, total reactive hydrocarbon, (RHC), and nitrogen oxide, (NO_x), emissions. Air quality, also two-dimensional, is measured by the expected number of days per year that nitrogen dioxide, (NO₂), and mid-day ozone, (O₃), exceed standards in Central Los Angeles.

The minimum cost of reaching various emission levels is found by a linear programming model. The base or "uncontrolled" emission levels are those that will exist in 1975 with the present new car control program and with the degree of stationary source control existing in 1971. Controls, basically "add-on devices", are considered here for used cars, aircraft, and existing stationary sources. It is found that with these added controls, Los Angeles County emission levels [(1300 tons/day RHC, 1000 tons /day NO_x) in 1969] and [(670 tons/day RHC, 790 tons/day NO_x) at the base 1975 level], can be reduced to 260 tons/day RHC (minimum RHC program) and 460 tons/day NO_x (minimum NO_x program).

"Phenomenological" or statistical air quality models provide the relationship between air quality and emissions. These models estimate the relationship by using atmospheric monitoring data taken at one (yearly) emission level and by using certain simple physical assumptions, (e. g., that emissions are reduced proportionately at all points in space and time). For NO₂, (concentrations assumed proportional to NO_x emissions), it is found that standard violations in Central Los Angeles, (55 in 1969), can be reduced to 25, 5, and 0 days per year by controlling emissions to 800, 550, and 300 tons /day, respectively. A probabilistic model reveals that RHC control is much more effective than NO_x control in reducing Central Los Angeles ozone. The 150 days per year ozone violations in 1969 can be reduced to 75, 30, 10, and 0 days per year by abating RHC emissions to 700, 450, 300, and 150 tons/day, respectively, (at the 1969 NO_x emission level).

The control cost-emission level and air quality-emission level relationships are combined in a graphical solution of the complete model to find the cost of various air quality levels. Best possible air quality levels with the controls considered here are 8 O₃ and 10 NO₂ violations per year (minimum ozone program) or 25 O₃ and 3 NO₂ violations per year (minimum NO₂ program) with an annualized cost of $230,000,000 (above the estimated $150,000,000 per year for the new car control program for Los Angeles County motor vehicles in 1975).

A bayesian probabilistic approach to structural health monitoring

A Bayesian probabilistic methodology for on-line structural health monitoring which addresses the issue of parameter uncertainty inherent in problem is presented. The method uses modal parameters for a limited number of modes identified from measurements taken at a restricted number of degrees of freedom of a structure as the measured structural data. The application presented uses a linear structural model whose stiffness matrix is parameterized to develop a class of possible models. Within the Bayesian framework, a joint probability density function (PDF) for the model stiffness parameters given the measured modal data is determined. Using this PDF, the marginal PDF of the stiffness parameter for each substructure given the data can be calculated.

Monitoring the health of a structure using these marginal PDFs involves two steps. First, the marginal PDF for each model parameter given modal data from the undamaged structure is found. The structure is then periodically monitored and updated marginal PDFs are determined. A measure of the difference between the calibrated and current marginal PDFs is used as a means to characterize the health of the structure. A procedure for interpreting the measure for use by an expert system in on-line monitoring is also introduced.

The probabilistic framework is developed in order to address the model parameter uncertainty issue inherent in the health monitoring problem. To illustrate this issue, consider a very simplified deterministic structural health monitoring method. In such an approach, the model parameters which minimize an error measure between the measured and model modal values would be used as the "best" model of the structure. Changes between the model parameters identified using modal data from the undamaged structure and subsequent modal data would be used to find the existence, location and degree of damage. Due to measurement noise, limited modal information, and model error, the "best" model parameters might vary from one modal dataset to the next without any damage present in the structure. Thus, difficulties would arise in separating normal variations in the identified model parameters based on limitations of the identification method and variations due to true change in the structure. The Bayesian framework described in this work provides a means to handle this parametric uncertainty.

The probabilistic health monitoring method is applied to simulated data and laboratory data. The results of these tests are presented.

Progress in numerical modeling of non-premixed combustion

Progress is made on the numerical modeling of both laminar and turbulent non-premixed flames. Instead of solving the transport equations for the numerous species involved in the combustion process, the present study proposes reduced-order combustion models based on local flame structures.

For laminar non-premixed flames, curvature and multi-dimensional diffusion effects are found critical for the accurate prediction of sooting tendencies. A new numerical model based on modified flamelet equations is proposed. Sooting tendencies are calculated numerically using the proposed model for a wide range of species. These first numerically-computed sooting tendencies are in good agreement with experimental data. To further quantify curvature and multi-dimensional effects, a general flamelet formulation is derived mathematically. A budget analysis of the general flamelet equations is performed on an axisymmetric laminar diffusion flame. A new chemistry tabulation method based on the general flamelet formulation is proposed. This new tabulation method is applied to the same flame and demonstrates significant improvement compared to previous techniques.

For turbulent non-premixed flames, a new model to account for chemistry-turbulence interactions is proposed. %It is found that these interactions are not important for radicals and small species, but substantial for aromatic species. The validity of various existing flamelet-based chemistry tabulation methods is examined, and a new linear relaxation model is proposed for aromatic species. The proposed relaxation model is validated against full chemistry calculations. To further quantify the importance of aromatic chemistry-turbulence interactions, Large-Eddy Simulations (LES) have been performed on a turbulent sooting jet flame. %The aforementioned relaxation model is used to provide closure for the chemical source terms of transported aromatic species. The effects of turbulent unsteadiness on soot are highlighted by comparing the LES results with a separate LES using fully-tabulated chemistry. It is shown that turbulent unsteady effects are of critical importance for the accurate prediction of not only the inception locations, but also the magnitude and fluctuations of soot.

Solubility and Diffusivity of Water in Lunar Basalt, and Chemical Zonation in Olivine-Hosted Melt Inclusions

I report the solubility and diffusivity of water in lunar basalt and an iron-free basaltic analogue at 1 atm and 1350 °C. Such parameters are critical for understanding the degassing histories of lunar pyroclastic glasses. Solubility experiments have been conducted over a range of fO₂ conditions from three log units below to five log units above the iron-wüstite buffer (IW) and over a range of pH₂/pH₂O from 0.03 to 24. Quenched experimental glasses were analyzed by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and secondary ionization mass spectrometry (SIMS) and were found to contain up to ~420 ppm water. Results demonstrate that, under the conditions of our experiments: (1) hydroxyl is the only H-bearing species detected by FTIR; (2) the solubility of water is proportional to the square root of pH₂O in the furnace atmosphere and is independent of fO₂ and pH₂/pH₂O; (3) the solubility of water is very similar in both melt compositions; (4) the concentration of H₂ in our iron-free experiments is <3 ppm, even at oxygen fugacities as low as IW-2.3 and pH₂/pH₂O as high as 24; and (5) SIMS analyses of water in iron-rich glasses equilibrated under variable fO₂ conditions can be strongly influenced by matrix effects, even when the concentrations of water in the glasses are low. Our results can be used to constrain the entrapment pressure of the lunar melt inclusions of Hauri et al. (2011).

Diffusion experiments were conducted over a range of fO₂ conditions from IW-2.2 to IW+6.7 and over a range of pH₂/pH₂O from nominally zero to ~10. The water concentrations measured in our quenched experimental glasses by SIMS and FTIR vary from a few ppm to ~430 ppm. Water concentration gradients are well described by models in which the diffusivity of water (D^*_water) is assumed to be constant. The relationship between D^*_water and water concentration is well described by a modified speciation model (Ni et al. 2012) in which both molecular water and hydroxyl are allowed to diffuse. The success of this modified speciation model for describing our results suggests that we have resolved the diffusivity of hydroxyl in basaltic melt for the first time. Best-fit values of D^*_water for our experiments on lunar basalt vary within a factor of ~2 over a range of pH₂/pH₂O from 0.007 to 9.7, a range of fO₂ from IW-2.2 to IW+4.9, and a water concentration range from ~80 ppm to ~280 ppm. The relative insensitivity of our best-fit values of D^*_water to variations in pH₂ suggests that H₂ diffusion was not significant during degassing of the lunar glasses of Saal et al. (2008). D^*_water during dehydration and hydration in H₂/CO₂ gas mixtures are approximately the same, which supports an equilibrium boundary condition for these experiments. However, dehydration experiments into CO₂ and CO/CO₂ gas mixtures leave some scope for the importance of kinetics during dehydration into H-free environments. The value of D^*_water chosen by Saal et al. (2008) for modeling the diffusive degassing of the lunar volcanic glasses is within a factor of three of our measured value in our lunar basaltic melt at 1350 °C.

In Chapter 4 of this thesis, I document significant zonation in major, minor, trace, and volatile elements in naturally glassy olivine-hosted melt inclusions from the Siqueiros Fracture Zone and the Galapagos Islands. Components with a higher concentration in the host olivine than in the melt (MgO, FeO, Cr₂O₃, and MnO) are depleted at the edges of the zoned melt inclusions relative to their centers, whereas except for CaO, H₂O, and F, components with a lower concentration in the host olivine than in the melt (Al₂O₃, SiO₂, Na₂O, K₂O, TiO₂, S, and Cl) are enriched near the melt inclusion edges. This zonation is due to formation of an olivine-depleted boundary layer in the adjacent melt in response to cooling and crystallization of olivine on the walls of the melt inclusions concurrent with diffusive propagation of the boundary layer toward the inclusion center.

Concentration profiles of some components in the melt inclusions exhibit multicomponent diffusion effects such as uphill diffusion (CaO, FeO) or slowing of the diffusion of typically rapidly diffusing components (Na₂O, K₂O) by coupling to slow diffusing components such as SiO₂ and Al₂O₃. Concentrations of H2O and F decrease towards the edges of some of the Siqueiros melt inclusions, suggesting either that these components have been lost from the inclusions into the host olivine late in their cooling histories and/or that these components are exhibiting multicomponent diffusion effects.

A model has been developed of the time-dependent evolution of MgO concentration profiles in melt inclusions due to simultaneous depletion of MgO at the inclusion walls due to olivine growth and diffusion of MgO in the melt inclusions in response to this depletion. Observed concentration profiles were fit to this model to constrain their thermal histories. Cooling rates determined by a single-stage linear cooling model are 150–13,000 °C hr^-1 from the liquidus down to ~1000 °C, consistent with previously determined cooling rates for basaltic glasses; compositional trends with melt inclusion size observed in the Siqueiros melt inclusions are described well by this simple single-stage linear cooling model. Despite the overall success of the modeling of MgO concentration profiles using a single-stage cooling history, MgO concentration profiles in some melt inclusions are better fit by a two-stage cooling history with a slower-cooling first stage followed by a faster-cooling second stage; the inferred total duration of cooling from the liquidus down to ~1000 °C is 40 s to just over one hour.

Based on our observations and models, compositions of zoned melt inclusions (even if measured at the centers of the inclusions) will typically have been diffusively fractionated relative to the initially trapped melt; for such inclusions, the initial composition cannot be simply reconstructed based on olivine-addition calculations, so caution should be exercised in application of such reconstructions to correct for post-entrapment crystallization of olivine on inclusion walls. Off-center analyses of a melt inclusion can also give results significantly fractionated relative to simple olivine crystallization.

All melt inclusions from the Siqueiros and Galapagos sample suites exhibit zoning profiles, and this feature may be nearly universal in glassy, olivine-hosted inclusions. If so, zoning profiles in melt inclusions could be widely useful to constrain late-stage syneruptive processes and as natural diffusion experiments.