6 resultados para Likelihood Ratio Interval
em CaltechTHESIS
Resumo:
This thesis studies decision making under uncertainty and how economic agents respond to information. The classic model of subjective expected utility and Bayesian updating is often at odds with empirical and experimental results; people exhibit systematic biases in information processing and often exhibit aversion to ambiguity. The aim of this work is to develop simple models that capture observed biases and study their economic implications.
In the first chapter I present an axiomatic model of cognitive dissonance, in which an agent's response to information explicitly depends upon past actions. I introduce novel behavioral axioms and derive a representation in which beliefs are directionally updated. The agent twists the information and overweights states in which his past actions provide a higher payoff. I then characterize two special cases of the representation. In the first case, the agent distorts the likelihood ratio of two states by a function of the utility values of the previous action in those states. In the second case, the agent's posterior beliefs are a convex combination of the Bayesian belief and the one which maximizes the conditional value of the previous action. Within the second case a unique parameter captures the agent's sensitivity to dissonance, and I characterize a way to compare sensitivity to dissonance between individuals. Lastly, I develop several simple applications and show that cognitive dissonance contributes to the equity premium and price volatility, asymmetric reaction to news, and belief polarization.
The second chapter characterizes a decision maker with sticky beliefs. That is, a decision maker who does not update enough in response to information, where enough means as a Bayesian decision maker would. This chapter provides axiomatic foundations for sticky beliefs by weakening the standard axioms of dynamic consistency and consequentialism. I derive a representation in which updated beliefs are a convex combination of the prior and the Bayesian posterior. A unique parameter captures the weight on the prior and is interpreted as the agent's measure of belief stickiness or conservatism bias. This parameter is endogenously identified from preferences and is easily elicited from experimental data.
The third chapter deals with updating in the face of ambiguity, using the framework of Gilboa and Schmeidler. There is no consensus on the correct way way to update a set of priors. Current methods either do not allow a decision maker to make an inference about her priors or require an extreme level of inference. In this chapter I propose and axiomatize a general model of updating a set of priors. A decision maker who updates her beliefs in accordance with the model can be thought of as one that chooses a threshold that is used to determine whether a prior is plausible, given some observation. She retains the plausible priors and applies Bayes' rule. This model includes generalized Bayesian updating and maximum likelihood updating as special cases.
Resumo:
Recent observations of the temperature anisotropies of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) favor an inflationary paradigm in which the scale factor of the universe inflated by many orders of magnitude at some very early time. Such a scenario would produce the observed large-scale isotropy and homogeneity of the universe, as well as the scale-invariant perturbations responsible for the observed (10 parts per million) anisotropies in the CMB. An inflationary epoch is also theorized to produce a background of gravitational waves (or tensor perturbations), the effects of which can be observed in the polarization of the CMB. The E-mode (or parity even) polarization of the CMB, which is produced by scalar perturbations, has now been measured with high significance. Con- trastingly, today the B-mode (or parity odd) polarization, which is sourced by tensor perturbations, has yet to be observed. A detection of the B-mode polarization of the CMB would provide strong evidence for an inflationary epoch early in the universe’s history.
In this work, we explore experimental techniques and analysis methods used to probe the B- mode polarization of the CMB. These experimental techniques have been used to build the Bicep2 telescope, which was deployed to the South Pole in 2009. After three years of observations, Bicep2 has acquired one of the deepest observations of the degree-scale polarization of the CMB to date. Similarly, this work describes analysis methods developed for the Bicep1 three-year data analysis, which includes the full data set acquired by Bicep1. This analysis has produced the tightest constraint on the B-mode polarization of the CMB to date, corresponding to a tensor-to-scalar ratio estimate of r = 0.04±0.32, or a Bayesian 95% credible interval of r < 0.70. These analysis methods, in addition to producing this new constraint, are directly applicable to future analyses of Bicep2 data. Taken together, the experimental techniques and analysis methods described herein promise to open a new observational window into the inflationary epoch and the initial conditions of our universe.
Resumo:
The motion of a single Brownian particle of arbitrary size through a dilute colloidal dispersion of neutrally buoyant bath spheres of another characteristic size in a Newtonian solvent is examined in two contexts. First, the particle in question, the probe particle, is subject to a constant applied external force drawing it through the suspension as a simple model for active and nonlinear microrheology. The strength of the applied external force, normalized by the restoring forces of Brownian motion, is the Péclet number, Pe. This dimensionless quantity describes how strongly the probe is upsetting the equilibrium distribution of the bath particles. The mean motion and fluctuations in the probe position are related to interpreted quantities of an effective viscosity of the suspension. These interpreted quantities are calculated to first order in the volume fraction of bath particles and are intimately tied to the spatial distribution, or microstructure, of bath particles relative to the probe. For weak Pe, the disturbance to the equilibrium microstructure is dipolar in nature, with accumulation and depletion regions on the front and rear faces of the probe, respectively. With increasing applied force, the accumulation region compresses to form a thin boundary layer whose thickness scales with the inverse of Pe. The depletion region lengthens to form a trailing wake. The magnitude of the microstructural disturbance is found to grow with increasing bath particle size -- small bath particles in the solvent resemble a continuum with effective microviscosity given by Einstein's viscosity correction for a dilute dispersion of spheres. Large bath particles readily advect toward the minimum approach distance possible between the probe and bath particle, and the probe and bath particle pair rotating as a doublet is the primary mechanism by which the probe particle is able to move past; this is a process that slows the motion of the probe by a factor of the size ratio. The intrinsic microviscosity is found to force thin at low Péclet number due to decreasing contributions from Brownian motion, and force thicken at high Péclet number due to the increasing influence of the configuration-averaged reduction in the probe's hydrodynamic self mobility. Nonmonotonicity at finite sizes is evident in the limiting high-Pe intrinsic microviscosity plateau as a function of bath-to-probe particle size ratio. The intrinsic microviscosity is found to grow with the size ratio for very small probes even at large-but-finite Péclet numbers. However, even a small repulsive interparticle potential, that excludes lubrication interactions, can reduce this intrinsic microviscosity back to an order one quantity. The results of this active microrheology study are compared to previous theoretical studies of falling-ball and towed-ball rheometry and sedimentation and diffusion in polydisperse suspensions, and the singular limit of full hydrodynamic interactions is noted.
Second, the probe particle in question is no longer subject to a constant applied external force. Rather, the particle is considered to be a catalytically-active motor, consuming the bath reactant particles on its reactive face while passively colliding with reactant particles on its inert face. By creating an asymmetric distribution of reactant about its surface, the motor is able to diffusiophoretically propel itself with some mean velocity. The effects of finite size of the solute are examined on the leading order diffusive microstructure of reactant about the motor. Brownian and interparticle contributions to the motor velocity are computed for several interparticle interaction potential lengths and finite reactant-to-motor particle size ratios, with the dimensionless motor velocity increasing with decreasing motor size. A discussion on Brownian rotation frames the context in which these results could be applicable, and future directions are proposed which properly incorporate reactant advection at high motor velocities.
Resumo:
This study addresses the problem of obtaining reliable velocities and displacements from accelerograms, a concern which often arises in earthquake engineering. A closed-form acceleration expression with random parameters is developed to test any strong-motion accelerogram processing method. Integration of this analytical time history yields the exact velocities, displacements and Fourier spectra. Noise and truncation can also be added. A two-step testing procedure is proposed and the original Volume II routine is used as an illustration. The main sources of error are identified and discussed. Although these errors may be reduced, it is impossible to extract the true time histories from an analog or digital accelerogram because of the uncertain noise level and missing data. Based on these uncertainties, a probabilistic approach is proposed as a new accelerogram processing method. A most probable record is presented as well as a reliability interval which reflects the level of error-uncertainty introduced by the recording and digitization process. The data is processed in the frequency domain, under assumptions governing either the initial value or the temporal mean of the time histories. This new processing approach is tested on synthetic records. It induces little error and the digitization noise is adequately bounded. Filtering is intended to be kept to a minimum and two optimal error-reduction methods are proposed. The "noise filters" reduce the noise level at each harmonic of the spectrum as a function of the signal-to-noise ratio. However, the correction at low frequencies is not sufficient to significantly reduce the drifts in the integrated time histories. The "spectral substitution method" uses optimization techniques to fit spectral models of near-field, far-field or structural motions to the amplitude spectrum of the measured data. The extremes of the spectrum of the recorded data where noise and error prevail are then partly altered, but not removed, and statistical criteria provide the choice of the appropriate cutoff frequencies. This correction method has been applied to existing strong-motion far-field, near-field and structural data with promising results. Since this correction method maintains the whole frequency range of the record, it should prove to be very useful in studying the long-period dynamics of local geology and structures.
Resumo:
Fundamental studies of magnetic alignment of highly anisotropic mesostructures can enable the clean-room-free fabrication of flexible, array-based solar and electronic devices, in which preferential orientation of nano- or microwire-type objects is desired. In this study, ensembles of 100 micron long Si microwires with ferromagnetic Ni and Co coatings are oriented vertically in the presence of magnetic fields. The degree of vertical alignment and threshold field strength depend on geometric factors, such as microwire length and ferromagnetic coating thickness, as well as interfacial interactions, which are modulated by varying solvent and substrate surface chemistry. Microwire ensembles with vertical alignment over 97% within 10 degrees of normal, as measured by X-ray diffraction, are achieved over square cm scale areas and set into flexible polymer films. A force balance model has been developed as a predictive tool for magnetic alignment, incorporating magnetic torque and empirically derived surface adhesion parameters. As supported by these calculations, microwires are shown to detach from the surface and align vertically in the presence of magnetic fields on the order of 100 gauss. Microwires aligned in this manner are set into a polydimethylsiloxane film where they retain their vertical alignment after the field has been removed and can subsequently be used as a flexible solar absorber layer. Finally, these microwires arrays can be protected for use in electrochemical cells by the conformal deposition of a graphene layer.
Resumo:
The cosmic-ray positron and negatron spectra between 11 and 204 MeV have been measured in a series of 3 high-altitude balloon flights launched from Fort Churchill, Manitoba, on July 16, July 21, and July 29, 1968. The detector system consisted of a magnetic spectrometer utilizing a 1000-gauss permanent magnet, scintillation counters, and a lucite Čerenkov counter.
Launches were timed so that the ascent through the 100 g/cm2 level of residual atmosphere occurred after the evening geomagnetic cutoff transition. Data gathered during ascent are used to correct for the contribution of atmospheric secondary electrons to the flux measured at float altitude. All flights floated near 2.4 g/cm2.
A pronounced morning intensity increase was observed in each flight. We present daytime positron and negatron data which support the interpretation of the diurnal flux variation as a change in the local geomagnetic cutoff. A large diurnal variation was observed in the count rate of positrons and negatrons with magnetic rigidities less than 11 MV and is evidence that the nighttime cutoff was well below this value.
Using nighttime data we derive extraterrestrial positron and negatron spectra. The positron-to-total-electron ratio which we measure indicates that the interstellar secondary, or collision, source contributes ≾50 percent of the electron flux within this energy interval. By comparing our measured positron spectrum with the positron spectrum calculated for the collision source we derive the absolute solar modulation for positrons in 1968. Assuming negligible energy loss during modulation, we derive the total interstellar electron spectrum as well as the spectrum of directly accelerated, or primary, electrons. We examine the effect of adiabatic deceleration and find that many of the conclusions regarding the interstellar electron spectrum are not significantly altered for an assumed energy loss of up to 50 percent of the original energy.