Earthquakes of the Nepal Himalaya : towards a physical model of the seismic cycle

Home to hundreds of millions of souls and land of excessiveness, the Himalaya is also the locus of a unique seismicity whose scope and peculiarities still remain to this day somewhat mysterious. Having claimed the lives of kings, or turned ancient timeworn cities into heaps of rubbles and ruins, earthquakes eerily inhabit Nepalese folk tales with the fatalistic message that nothing lasts forever. From a scientific point of view as much as from a human perspective, solving the mysteries of Himalayan seismicity thus represents a challenge of prime importance. Documenting geodetic strain across the Nepal Himalaya with various GPS and leveling data, we show that unlike other subduction zones that exhibit a heterogeneous and patchy coupling pattern along strike, the last hundred kilometers of the Main Himalayan Thrust fault, or MHT, appear to be uniformly locked, devoid of any of the “creeping barriers” that traditionally ward off the propagation of large events. The approximately 20 mm/yr of reckoned convergence across the Himalaya matching previously established estimates of the secular deformation at the front of the arc, the slip accumulated at depth has to somehow elastically propagate all the way to the surface at some point. And yet, neither large events from the past nor currently recorded microseismicity nearly compensate for the massive moment deficit that quietly builds up under the giant mountains. Along with this large unbalanced moment deficit, the uncommonly homogeneous coupling pattern on the MHT raises the question of whether or not the locked portion of the MHT can rupture all at once in a giant earthquake. Univocally answering this question appears contingent on the still elusive estimate of the magnitude of the largest possible earthquake in the Himalaya, and requires tight constraints on local fault properties. What makes the Himalaya enigmatic also makes it the potential source of an incredible wealth of information, and we exploit some of the oddities of Himalayan seismicity in an effort to improve the understanding of earthquake physics and cipher out the properties of the MHT. Thanks to the Himalaya, the Indo-Gangetic plain is deluged each year under a tremendous amount of water during the annual summer monsoon that collects and bears down on the Indian plate enough to pull it away from the Eurasian plate slightly, temporarily relieving a small portion of the stress mounting on the MHT. As the rainwater evaporates in the dry winter season, the plate rebounds and tension is increased back on the fault. Interestingly, the mild waggle of stress induced by the monsoon rains is about the same size as that from solid-Earth tides which gently tug at the planets solid layers, but whereas changes in earthquake frequency correspond with the annually occurring monsoon, there is no such correlation with Earth tides, which oscillate back-and-forth twice a day. We therefore investigate the general response of the creeping and seismogenic parts of MHT to periodic stresses in order to link these observations to physical parameters. First, the response of the creeping part of the MHT is analyzed with a simple spring-and-slider system bearing rate-strengthening rheology, and we show that at the transition with the locked zone, where the friction becomes near velocity neutral, the response of the slip rate may be amplified at some periods, which values are analytically related to the physical parameters of the problem. Such predictions therefore hold the potential of constraining fault properties on the MHT, but still await observational counterparts to be applied, as nothing indicates that the variations of seismicity rate on the locked part of the MHT are the direct expressions of variations of the slip rate on its creeping part, and no variations of the slip rate have been singled out from the GPS measurements to this day. When shifting to the locked seismogenic part of the MHT, spring-and-slider models with rate-weakening rheology are insufficient to explain the contrasted responses of the seismicity to the periodic loads that tides and monsoon both place on the MHT. Instead, we resort to numerical simulations using the Boundary Integral CYCLes of Earthquakes algorithm and examine the response of a 2D finite fault embedded with a rate-weakening patch to harmonic stress perturbations of various periods. We show that such simulations are able to reproduce results consistent with a gradual amplification of sensitivity as the perturbing period get larger, up to a critical period corresponding to the characteristic time of evolution of the seismicity in response to a step-like perturbation of stress. This increase of sensitivity was not reproduced by simple 1D-spring-slider systems, probably because of the complexity of the nucleation process, reproduced only by 2D-fault models. When the nucleation zone is close to its critical unstable size, its growth becomes highly sensitive to any external perturbations and the timings of produced events may therefore find themselves highly affected. A fully analytical framework has yet to be developed and further work is needed to fully describe the behavior of the fault in terms of physical parameters, which will likely provide the keys to deduce constitutive properties of the MHT from seismological observations.

Expression of eph-family receptor tyrosine kinases and ephrins in the tadpole of the frog Xenopus laevis, and possible roles in the development of retinotectal topography

Assembling a nervous system requires exquisite specificity in the construction of neuronal connectivity. One method by which such specificity is implemented is the presence of chemical cues within the tissues, differentiating one region from another, and the presence of receptors for those cues on the surface of neurons and their axons that are navigating within this cellular environment.

Connections from one part of the nervous system to another often take the form of a topographic mapping. One widely studied model system that involves such a mapping is the vertebrate retinotectal projection-the set of connections between the eye and the optic tectum of the midbrain, which is the primary visual center in non-mammals and is homologous to the superior colliculus in mammals. In this projection the two-dimensional surface of the retina is mapped smoothly onto the two-dimensional surface of the tectum, such that light from neighboring points in visual space excites neighboring cells in the brain. This mapping is implemented at least in part via differential chemical cues in different regions of the tectum.

The Eph family of receptor tyrosine kinases and their cell-surface ligands, the ephrins, have been implicated in a wide variety of processes, generally involving cellular movement in response to extracellular cues. In particular, they possess expression patterns-i.e., complementary gradients of receptor in retina and ligand in tectum- and in vitro and in vivo activities and phenotypes-i.e., repulsive guidance of axons and defective mapping in mutants, respectively-consistent with the long-sought retinotectal chemical mapping cues.

The tadpole of Xenopus laevis, the South African clawed frog, is advantageous for in vivo retinotectal studies because of its transparency and manipulability. However, neither the expression patterns nor the retinotectal roles of these proteins have been well characterized in this system. We report here comprehensive descriptions in swimming stage tadpoles of the messenger RNA expression patterns of eleven known Xenopus Eph and ephrin genes, including xephrin-A3, which is novel, and xEphB2, whose expression pattern has not previously been published in detail. We also report the results of in vivo protein injection perturbation studies on Xenopus retinotectal topography, which were negative, and of in vitro axonal guidance assays, which suggest a previously unrecognized attractive activity of ephrins at low concentrations on retinal ganglion cell axons. This raises the possibility that these axons find their correct targets in part by seeking out a preferred concentration of ligands appropriate to their individual receptor expression levels, rather than by being repelled to greater or lesser degrees by the ephrins but attracted by some as-yet-unknown cue(s).

A ratiometric-based measure of gene co-expression

Current measures of global gene expression analyses, such as correlation and mutual information-based approaches, largely depend on the degree of association between mRNA levels and to a lesser extent on variability. I develop and implement a new approach, called the Ratiometric method, which is based on the coefficient of variation of the expression ratio of two genes, relying more on variation than previous methods. The advantage of such modus operandi is the ability to detect possible gene pair interactions regardless of the degree of expression dispersion across the sample group. Gene pairs with low expression dispersion, i.e., their absolute expressions remain constant across the sample group, are systematically missed by correlation and mutual information analyses. The superiority of the Ratiometric method in finding these gene pair interactions is demonstrated in a data set of RNA-seq B-cell samples from the 1000 Genomes Project Consortium. The Ratiometric method renders a more comprehensive recovery of KEGG pathways and GO-terms.

Part I: The abortive infection of bacteriophage øx174 at low temperatures. Part II: The early stages in the process of infection by bacteriophage øx174

Part I

The infection of E. coli by ΦX174 at 15°C is abortive; the cells are killed by the infection but neither mature phage nor SS (single-stranded) DNA are synthesized. Parental RF (replicative form) is formed and subsequently replicated at 15°C. The RF made at 15°C shows normal infectivity and full competence to act as precursor to progeny SS DNA after an increase in temperature to 37°C. The investigations suggest that all of the proteins required for SS DNA synthesis and phage maturation are present in the abortive infection at 15°C.

Three possible causes are suggested for the abortive infection at 15°C: (a) A virus-coded protein whose role is essential to the infection is made at 15°C and assumes its native conformation, but its rate of activity is too low at this temperature to sustain the infection process. (b) Virus maturation may involve the formation of a DNA-protein complex and conformational changes which have an energy threshold infrequently reached at 15°C. (c) A host-coded protein present in uninfected cells, and whose activity is essential to the infection at all temperatures, but not to the host at 15°C, is inactive at 15°C. An hypothesis of this type is offered which proposes that the temperature-limiting factor in SS DNA synthesis in vivo may reflect a temperature-dependent property of the host DNA polymerase.

Part II

Three distinct stages are demonstrated in the process whereby ΦX174 invades its host: (1) Attachment: The phage attach to the cell in a manner that does not irreversibly alter the phage particle and which exhibits "single-hit" kinetics. The total charge on the phage particle is demonstrated to be important in determining the rate at which stable attachment is effected. The proteins specified by ΦX cistrons II, III and VII play roles, which may be indirect, in the attachment reaction. (2) Eclipse: 'The attached phage undergo a conformational change. Some of the altered phage particles spontaneously detach from the cell (in a non-infective form) while the remainder are more tightly bound to the cell. The altered phage particles detached (spontaneously or chemically) from such complexes have at least 40% of their DNA extruded from the phage coat. It is proposed that this particle is, or derives from, a direct intermediate in the penetration of the viral DNA.

The kinetics for the eclipse of attached phage particles are first-order with respect to phage concentration and biphasic; about 85% of the phage eclipse at one rate (k = 0.86 min^-1) and the remainder do so at a distinctly lesser rate (k = 0.21 min^-1).

The eclipse event is very temperature-dependent and has the relatively high Arrhenius activation energy of 36.6 kcal/mole, indicating the cooperative nature of the process. The temperature threshold for eclipse is 17 to 18°C.

At present no specific ΦX cistron is identified as affecting the eclipse process. (3) DNA penetration: A fraction of the attached, eclipsed phage particles corresponding in number to the plaque-forming units complete DNA penetration. The penetrated DNA is found in the cell as RF, and the empty phage protein coat remains firmly attached to the exterior of the cell. This step is inhibited by prior irradiation of the phage with relatively high doses of UV light and is insensitive to the presence of KCN and NaN₃. Temporally excluded superinfecting phages do not achieve DNA penetration.

Both eclipsed phage particles and empty phage protein coats may be dissociated from infected cells; some of their properties are described.

Dynamics of the East Asian Summer Monsoon in Present and Future Climates

This thesis aims at enhancing our fundamental understanding of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), and mechanisms implicated in its climatology in present-day and warmer climates. We focus on the most prominent feature of the EASM, i.e., the so-called Meiyu-Baiu (MB), which is characterized by a well-defined, southwest to northeast elongated quasi-stationary rainfall band, spanning from eastern China to Japan and into the northwestern Pacific Ocean in June and July.

We begin with an observational study of the energetics of the MB front in present-day climate. Analyses of the moist static energy (MSE) budget of the MB front indicate that horizontal advection of moist enthalpy, primarily of dry enthalpy, sustains the front in a region of otherwise negative net energy input into the atmospheric column. A decomposition of the horizontal dry enthalpy advection into mean, transient, and stationary eddy fluxes identifies the longitudinal thermal gradient due to zonal asymmetries and the meridional stationary eddy velocity as the most influential factors determining the pattern of horizontal moist enthalpy advection. Numerical simulations in which the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is either retained or removed show that the TP influences the stationary enthalpy flux, and hence the MB front, primarily by changing the meridional stationary eddy velocity, with reinforced southerly wind on the northwestern flank of the north Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) over the MB region and northerly wind to its north. Changes in the longitudinal thermal gradient are mainly confined to the near downstream of the TP, with the resulting changes in zonal warm air advection having a lesser impact on the rainfall in the extended MB region.

Similar mechanisms are shown to be implicated in present climate simulations in the Couple Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. We find that the spatial distribution of the EASM precipitation simulated by different models is highly correlated with the meridional stationary eddy velocity. The correlation becomes more robust when energy fluxes into the atmospheric column are considered, consistent with the observational analyses. The spread in the area-averaged rainfall amount can be partially explained by the spread in the simulated globally-averaged precipitation, with the rest primarily due to the lower-level meridional wind convergence. Clear relationships between precipitation and zonal and meridional eddy velocities are observed.

Finally, the response of the EASM to greenhouse gas forcing is investigated at different time scales in CMIP5 model simulations. The reduction of radiative cooling and the increase in continental surface temperature occur much more rapidly than changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Without changes in SSTs, the rainfall in the monsoon region decreases (increases) over ocean (land) in most models. On longer time scales, as SSTs increase, rainfall changes are opposite. The total response to atmospheric CO^2 forcing and subsequent SST warming is a large (modest) increase in rainfall over ocean (land) in the EASM region. Dynamic changes, in spite of significant contributions from the thermodynamic component, play an important role in setting up the spatial pattern of precipitation changes. Rainfall anomalies over East China are a direct consequence of local land-sea contrast, while changes in the larger-scale oceanic rainfall band are closely associated with the displacement of the larger-scale NPSH. Numerical simulations show that topography and SST patterns play an important role in rainfall changes in the EASM region.