Determination of source finiteness and depth of large earthquakes

In this thesis, a method to retrieve the source finiteness, depth of faulting, and the mechanisms of large earthquakes from long-period surface waves is developed and applied to several recent large events.

In Chapter 1, source finiteness parameters of eleven large earthquakes were determined from long-period Rayleigh waves recorded at IDA and GDSN stations. The basic data set is the seismic spectra of periods from 150 to 300 sec. Two simple models of source finiteness are studied. The first model is a point source with finite duration. In the determination of the duration or source-process times, we used Furumoto's phase method and a linear inversion method, in which we simultaneously inverted the spectra and determined the source-process time that minimizes the error in the inversion. These two methods yielded consistent results. The second model is the finite fault model. Source finiteness of large shallow earthquakes with rupture on a fault plane with a large aspect ratio was modeled with the source-finiteness function introduced by Ben-Menahem. The spectra were inverted to find the extent and direction of the rupture of the earthquake that minimize the error in the inversion. This method is applied to the 1977 Sumbawa, Indonesia, 1979 Colombia-Ecuador, 1983 Akita-Oki, Japan, 1985 Valparaiso, Chile, and 1985 Michoacan, Mexico earthquakes. The method yielded results consistent with the rupture extent inferred from the aftershock area of these earthquakes.

In Chapter 2, the depths and source mechanisms of nine large shallow earthquakes were determined. We inverted the data set of complex source spectra for a moment tensor (linear) or a double couple (nonlinear). By solving a least-squares problem, we obtained the centroid depth or the extent of the distributed source for each earthquake. The depths and source mechanisms of large shallow earthquakes determined from long-period Rayleigh waves depend on the models of source finiteness, wave propagation, and the excitation. We tested various models of the source finiteness, Q, the group velocity, and the excitation in the determination of earthquake depths.

The depth estimates obtained using the Q model of Dziewonski and Steim (1982) and the excitation functions computed for the average ocean model of Regan and Anderson (1984) are considered most reasonable. Dziewonski and Steim's Q model represents a good global average of Q determined over a period range of the Rayleigh waves used in this study. Since most of the earthquakes studied here occurred in subduction zones Regan and Anderson's average ocean model is considered most appropriate.

Our depth estimates are in general consistent with the Harvard CMT solutions. The centroid depths and their 90 % confidence intervals (numbers in the parentheses) determined by the Student's t test are: Colombia-Ecuador earthquake (12 December 1979), d = 11 km, (9, 24) km; Santa Cruz Is. earthquake (17 July 1980), d = 36 km, (18, 46) km; Samoa earthquake (1 September 1981), d = 15 km, (9, 26) km; Playa Azul, Mexico earthquake (25 October 1981), d = 41 km, (28, 49) km; El Salvador earthquake (19 June 1982), d = 49 km, (41, 55) km; New Ireland earthquake (18 March 1983), d = 75 km, (72, 79) km; Chagos Bank earthquake (30 November 1983), d = 31 km, (16, 41) km; Valparaiso, Chile earthquake (3 March 1985), d = 44 km, (15, 54) km; Michoacan, Mexico earthquake (19 September 1985), d = 24 km, (12, 34) km.

In Chapter 3, the vertical extent of faulting of the 1983 Akita-Oki, and 1977 Sumbawa, Indonesia earthquakes are determined from fundamental and overtone Rayleigh waves. Using fundamental Rayleigh waves, the depths are determined from the moment tensor inversion and fault inversion. The observed overtone Rayleigh waves are compared to the synthetic overtone seismograms to estimate the depth of faulting of these earthquakes. The depths obtained from overtone Rayleigh waves are consistent with the depths determined from fundamental Rayleigh waves for the two earthquakes. Appendix B gives the observed seismograms of fundamental and overtone Rayleigh waves for eleven large earthquakes.

Convex Relaxation for Low-Dimensional Representation: Phase Transitions and Limitations

There is a growing interest in taking advantage of possible patterns and structures in data so as to extract the desired information and overcome the curse of dimensionality. In a wide range of applications, including computer vision, machine learning, medical imaging, and social networks, the signal that gives rise to the observations can be modeled to be approximately sparse and exploiting this fact can be very beneficial. This has led to an immense interest in the problem of efficiently reconstructing a sparse signal from limited linear observations. More recently, low-rank approximation techniques have become prominent tools to approach problems arising in machine learning, system identification and quantum tomography.

In sparse and low-rank estimation problems, the challenge is the inherent intractability of the objective function, and one needs efficient methods to capture the low-dimensionality of these models. Convex optimization is often a promising tool to attack such problems. An intractable problem with a combinatorial objective can often be "relaxed" to obtain a tractable but almost as powerful convex optimization problem. This dissertation studies convex optimization techniques that can take advantage of low-dimensional representations of the underlying high-dimensional data. We provide provable guarantees that ensure that the proposed algorithms will succeed under reasonable conditions, and answer questions of the following flavor:

More specifically, i) Focusing on linear inverse problems, we generalize the classical error bounds known for the least-squares technique to the lasso formulation, which incorporates the signal model. ii) We show that intuitive convex approaches do not perform as well as expected when it comes to signals that have multiple low-dimensional structures simultaneously. iii) Finally, we propose convex relaxations for the graph clustering problem and give sharp performance guarantees for a family of graphs arising from the so-called stochastic block model. We pay particular attention to the following aspects. For i) and ii), we aim to provide a general geometric framework, in which the results on sparse and low-rank estimation can be obtained as special cases. For i) and iii), we investigate the precise performance characterization, which yields the right constants in our bounds and the true dependence between the problem parameters.

Localization of sources of human evoked responses

The evoked response, a signal present in the electro-encephalogram when specific sense modalities are stimulated with brief sensory inputs, has not yet revealed as much about brain function as it apparently promised when first recorded in the late 1940's. One of the problems has been to record the responses at a large number of points on the surface of the head; thus in order to achieve greater spatial resolution than previously attained, a 50-channel recording system was designed to monitor experiments with human visually evoked responses.

Conventional voltage versus time plots of the responses were found inadequate as a means of making qualitative studies of such a large data space. This problem was solved by creating a graphical display of the responses in the form of equipotential maps of the activity at successive instants during the complete response. In order to ascertain the necessary complexity of any models of the responses, factor analytic procedures were used to show that models characterized by only five or six independent parameters could adequately represent the variability in all recording channels.

One type of equivalent source for the responses which meets these specifications is the electrostatic dipole. Two different dipole models were studied: the dipole in a homogeneous sphere and the dipole in a sphere comprised of two spherical shells (of different conductivities) concentric with and enclosing a homogeneous sphere of a third conductivity. These models were used to determine nonlinear least squares fits of dipole parameters to a given potential distribution on the surface of a spherical approximation to the head. Numerous tests of the procedures were conducted with problems having known solutions. After these theoretical studies demonstrated the applicability of the technique, the models were used to determine inverse solutions for the evoked response potentials at various times throughout the responses. It was found that reliable estimates of the location and strength of cortical activity were obtained, and that the two models differed only slightly in their inverse solutions. These techniques enabled information flow in the brain, as indicated by locations and strengths of active sites, to be followed throughout the evoked response.

Sequence specific complexation of b DNA at sites containing g,c base pairs

A series of eight related analogs of distamycin A has been synthesized. Footprinting and affinity cleaving reveal that only two of the analogs, pyridine-2- car box amide-netropsin (2-Py N) and 1-methylimidazole-2-carboxamide-netrops in (2-ImN), bind to DNA with a specificity different from that of the parent compound. A new class of sites, represented by a TGACT sequence, is a strong site for 2-PyN binding, and the major recognition site for 2-ImN on DNA. Both compounds recognize the G•C bp specifically, although A's and T's in the site may be interchanged without penalty. Additional A•T bp outside the binding site increase the binding affinity. The compounds bind in the minor groove of the DNA sequence, but protect both grooves from dimethylsulfate. The binding evidence suggests that 2-PyN or 2-ImN binding induces a DNA conformational change.

In order to understand this sequence specific complexation better, the Ackers quantitative footprinting method for measuring individual site affinity constants has been extended to small molecules. MPE•Fe(II) cleavage reactions over a 10^5 range of free ligand concentrations are analyzed by gel electrophoresis. The decrease in cleavage is calculated by densitometry of a gel autoradiogram. The apparent fraction of DNA bound is then calculated from the amount of cleavage protection. The data is fitted to a theoretical curve using non-linear least squares techniques. Affinity constants at four individual sites are determined simultaneously. The distamycin A analog binds solely at A•T rich sites. Affinities range from 10^(6)- 10^(7)M^(-1) The data for parent compound D fit closely to a monomeric binding curve. 2-PyN binds both A•T sites and the TGTCA site with an apparent affinity constant of 10^(5) M^(-1). 2-ImN binds A•T sites with affinities less than 5 x 10^(4) M^(-1). The affinity of 2-ImN for the TGTCA site does not change significantly from the 2-PyN value. At the TGTCA site, the experimental data fit a dimeric binding curve better than a monomeric curve. Both 2-PyN and 2-ImN have substantially lower DNA affinities than closely related compounds.

In order to probe the requirements of this new binding site, fourteen other derivatives have been synthesized and tested. All compounds that recognize the TGTCA site have a heterocyclic aromatic nitrogen ortho to the N or C-terminal amide of the netropsin subunit. Specificity is strongly affected by the overall length of the small molecule. Only compounds that consist of at least three aromatic rings linked by amides exhibit TGTCA site binding. Specificity is only weakly altered by substitution on the pyridine ring, which correlates best with steric factors. A model is proposed for TGTCA site binding that has as its key feature hydrogen bonding to both G's by the small molecule. The specificity is determined by the sequence dependence of the distance between G's.

One derivative of 2-PyN exhibits pH dependent sequence specificity. At low pH, 4-dimethylaminopyridine-2-carboxamide-netropsin binds tightly to A•T sites. At high pH, 4-Me_(2)NPyN binds most tightly to the TGTCA site. In aqueous solution, this compound protonates at the pyridine nitrogen at pH 6. Thus presence of the protonated form correlates with A•T specificity.

The binding site of a class of eukaryotic transcriptional activators typified by yeast protein GCN4 and the mammalian oncogene Jun contains a strong 2-ImN binding site. Specificity requirements for the protein and small molecule are similar. GCN4 and 2-lmN bind simultaneously to the same binding site. GCN4 alters the cleavage pattern of 2-ImN-EDTA derivative at only one of its binding sites. The details of the interaction suggest that GCN4 alters the conformation of an AAAAAAA sequence adjacent to its binding site. The presence of a yeast counterpart to Jun partially blocks 2-lmN binding. The differences do not appear to be caused by direct interactions between 2-lmN and the proteins, but by induced conformational changes in the DNA protein complex. It is likely that the observed differences in complexation are involved in the varying sequence specificity of these proteins.

I. The crystal structure of trimesic acid. II. Topics in crystallographic calculations

I. Trimesic acid (1, 3, 5-benzenetricarboxylic acid) crystallizes with a monoclinic unit cell of dimensions a = 26.52 A, b = 16.42 A, c = 26.55 A, and β = 91.53° with 48 molecules /unit cell. Extinctions indicated a space group of Cc or C2/c; a satisfactory structure was obtained in the latter with 6 molecules/asymmetric unit - C₅₄O₃₆H₃₆ with a formula weight of 1261 g. Of approximately 12,000 independent reflections within the CuK_α sphere, intensities of 11,563 were recorded visually from equi-inclination Weissenberg photographs.

The structure was solved by packing considerations aided by molecular transforms and two- and three-dimensional Patterson functions. Hydrogen positions were found on difference maps. A total of 978 parameters were refined by least squares; these included hydrogen parameters and anisotropic temperature factors for the C and O atoms. The final R factor was 0.0675; the final "goodness of fit" was 1.49. All calculations were carried out on the Caltech IBM 7040-7094 computer using the CRYRM Crystallographic Computing System.

The six independent molecules fall into two groups of three nearly parallel molecules. All molecules are connected by carboxylto- carboxyl hydrogen bond pairs to form a continuous array of sixmolecule rings with a chicken-wire appearance. These arrays bend to assume two orientations, forming pleated sheets. Arrays in different orientations interpenetrate - three molecules in one orientation passing through the holes of three parallel arrays in the alternate orientation - to produce a completely interlocking network. One third of the carboxyl hydrogen atoms were found to be disordered.

II. Optical transforms as related to x-ray diffraction patterns are discussed with reference to the theory of Fraunhofer diffraction.

The use of a systems approach in crystallographic computing is discussed with special emphasis on the way in which this has been done at the California Institute of Technology.

An efficient manner of calculating Fourier and Patterson maps on a digital computer is presented. Expressions for the calculation of to-scale maps for standard sections and for general-plane sections are developed; space-group-specific expressions in a form suitable for computers are given for all space groups except the hexagonal ones.

Expressions for the calculation of settings for an Eulerian-cradle diffractometer are developed for both the general triclinic case and the orthogonal case.

Photographic materials on pp. 4, 6, 10, and 20 are essential and will not reproduce clearly on Xerox copies. Photographic copies should be ordered.

Part I - The radiation of elastic waves from a spherical cavity in a half space. Part II - Precision determination of focal depths and epicenters of earthquakes.

Part I: The dynamic response of an elastic half space to an explosion in a buried spherical cavity is investigated by two methods. The first is implicit, and the final expressions for the displacements at the free surface are given as a series of spherical wave functions whose coefficients are solutions of an infinite set of linear equations. The second method is based on Schwarz's technique to solve boundary value problems, and leads to an iterative solution, starting with the known expression for the point source in a half space as first term. The iterative series is transformed into a system of two integral equations, and into an equivalent set of linear equations. In this way, a dual interpretation of the physical phenomena is achieved. The systems are treated numerically and the Rayleigh wave part of the displacements is given in the frequency domain. Several comparisons with simpler cases are analyzed to show the effect of the cavity radius-depth ratio on the spectra of the displacements.

Part II: A high speed, large capacity, hypocenter location program has been written for an IBM 7094 computer. Important modifications to the standard method of least squares have been incorporated in it. Among them are a new way to obtain the depth of shocks from the normal equations, and the computation of variable travel times for the local shocks in order to account automatically for crustal variations. The multiregional travel times, largely based upon the investigations of the United States Geological Survey, are confronted with actual traverses to test their validity.

It is shown that several crustal phases provide control enough to obtain good solutions in depth for nuclear explosions, though not all the recording stations are in the region where crustal corrections are considered. The use of the European travel times, to locate the French nuclear explosion of May 1962 in the Sahara, proved to be more adequate than previous work.

A simpler program, with manual crustal corrections, is used to process the Kern County series of aftershocks, and a clearer picture of tectonic mechanism of the White Wolf fault is obtained.

Shocks in the California region are processed automatically and statistical frequency-depth and energy depth curves are discussed in relation to the tectonics of the area.

I. The crystal structure of a new dimer of triphenylfluorocyclobutadiene. II. A low temperature refinement of the cyanuric triazide structure

I. THE CRYSTAL STRUCTURE OF A NEW DIMER OF TRIPHENYLFLUOROCYCLOBUTADIENE

The crystal structure of thermal isomer of the “head-to-head” dimer of triphenylfluorocyclobutadiene was determined by the direct method. The Σ₂ relationship involving the low angle reflections with the largest E’s were found and solved for the signs by the symbolic method of Zachariasen. The structure was seen in the electron density map and the E-map, and was refined antisotropically by the method of least squares. The residual R was 0.065.

The structure is a gem-difluorohexaphenyldihydropentalene. All of the phenyl groups are planar as it is the cyclopentadiene ring of the dihydropentalene skeleton. Overcrowding at the position of the flourines causes some deviations from the normal bond angles in the cyclopentene ring.

The list of observed and calculated structure factors on pages 32-34 will not be legible on the microfilm. Photographic copies may be obtained from the California Institute of Technology.

II. A LOW TEMPERATURE REFINEMENT OF THE CYANURIC TRIAZIDE STRUCTURE

The structure of cyanuric triazide was refined anisotropically by the method of least squares. Three-dimensional intensity data, which has been collected photographically with MoK_α radiation at -110˚C, were used in the refinement. The residual R was reduced to 0.081.

The structure is completely planar, and there is no significant bond alternation in the cyanuric ring. The packing of the molecules causes the azide groups to deviate from linearity by 8 degrees.

Regional variations in upper mantle structure beneath North America

Several types of seismological data, including surface wave group and phase velocities, travel times from large explosions, and teleseismic travel time anomalies, have indicated that there are significant regional variations in the upper few hundred kilometers of the mantle beneath continental areas. Body wave travel times and amplitudes from large chemical and nuclear explosions are used in this study to delineate the details of these variations beneath North America.

As a preliminary step in this study, theoretical P wave travel times, apparent velocities, and amplitudes have been calculated for a number of proposed upper mantle models, those of Gutenberg, Jeffreys, Lehman, and Lukk and Nersesov. These quantities have been calculated for both P and S waves for model CIT11GB, which is derived from surface wave dispersion data. First arrival times for all the models except that of Lukk and Nersesov are in close agreement, but the travel time curves for later arrivals are both qualitatively and quantitatively very different. For model CIT11GB, there are two large, overlapping regions of triplication of the travel time curve, produced by regions of rapid velocity increase near depths of 400 and 600 km. Throughout the distance range from 10 to 40 degrees, the later arrivals produced by these discontinuities have larger amplitudes than the first arrivals. The amplitudes of body waves, in fact, are extremely sensitive to small variations in the velocity structure, and provide a powerful tool for studying structural details.

Most of eastern North America, including the Canadian Shield has a Pn velocity of about 8.1 km/sec, with a nearly abrupt increase in compressional velocity by ~ 0.3 km/sec near at a depth varying regionally between 60 and 90 km. Variations in the structure of this part of the mantle are significant even within the Canadian Shield. The low-velocity zone is a minor feature in eastern North America and is subject to pronounced regional variations. It is 30 to 50 km thick, and occurs somewhere in the depth range from 80 to 160 km. The velocity decrease is less than 0.2 km/sec.

Consideration of the absolute amplitudes indicates that the attenuation due to anelasticity is negligible for 2 hz waves in the upper 200 km along the southeastern and southwestern margins of the Canadian Shield. For compressional waves the average Q for this region is > 3000. The amplitudes also indicate that the velocity gradient is at least 2 x 10^-3 both above and below the low-velocity zone, implying that the temperature gradient is < 4.8°C/km if the regions are chemically homogeneous.

In western North America, the low-velocity zone is a pronounced feature, extending to the base of the crust and having minimum velocities of 7.7 to 7.8 km/sec. Beneath the Colorado Plateau and Southern Rocky Mountains provinces, there is a rapid velocity increase of about 0.3 km/sec, similar to that observed in eastern North America, but near a depth of 100 km.

Complicated travel time curves observed on profiles with stations in both eastern and western North America can be explained in detail by a model taking into account the lateral variations in the structure of the low-velocity zone. These variations involve primarily the velocity within the zone and the depth to the top of the zone; the depth to the bottom is, for both regions, between 140 and 160 km.

The depth to the transition zone near 400 km also varies regionally, by about 30-40 km. These differences imply variations of 250 °C in the temperature or 6 % in the iron content of the mantle, if the phase transformation of olivine to the spinel structure is assumed responsible. The structural variations at this depth are not correlated with those at shallower depths, and follow no obvious simple pattern.

The computer programs used in this study are described in the Appendices. The program TTINV (Appendix IV) fits spherically symmetric earth models to observed travel time data. The method, described in Appendix III, resembles conventional least-square fitting, using partial derivatives of the travel time with respect to the model parameters to perturb an initial model. The usual ill-conditioned nature of least-squares techniques is avoided by a technique which minimizes both the travel time residuals and the model perturbations.

Spherically symmetric earth models, however, have been found inadequate to explain most of the observed travel times in this study. TVT4, a computer program that performs ray theory calculations for a laterally inhomogeneous earth model, is described in Appendix II. Appendix I gives a derivation of seismic ray theory for an arbitrarily inhomogeneous earth model.

Nature of the radical intermediates in a substituted cyclopropylcarbiny-allylcarbinyl system

We have sought to determine the nature of the free-radical precursors to ring-opened hydrocarbon 5 and ring-closed hydrocarbon 6. Reasonable alternative formulations involve the postulation of hydrogen abstraction (a) by a pair of rapidly equilibrating classical radicals (the ring-opened allylcarbinyl-type radical 3 and the ring-closed cyclopropylcarbinyl-type 4), or (b) by a nonclassical radical such as homoallylic radical 7.

[Figure not reproduced.]

Entry to the radical system is gained via degassed thermal decomposition of peresters having the ring-opened and the ring-closed structures. The ratio of 6:5 is essentially independent of the hydrogen donor concentration for decomposition of the former at 125° in the presence of triethyltin hydrdride. A deuterium labeling study showed that the α and β methylene groups in 3 (or the equivalent) are rapidly interchanged under these conditions.

Existence of two (or more) product-forming intermediates is indicated (a) by dependence of the ratio 6:5 on the tin hydride concentration for decomposition of the ring-closed perester at 10 and 35°, and (b) by formation of cage products having largely or wholly the structure (ring-opened or ring-closed) of the starting perester.

Relative rates of hydrogen abstraction by 3 could be inferred by comparison of ratios of rate constants for hydrogen abstraction and ortho-ring cyclization:

[Figure not reproduced.]

At 100° values of k_a/k_r are 0.14 for hydrogen abstraction from 1,4-cyclohexadiene and 7 for abstraction from triethyltin hydride. The ratio 6:5 at the same temperature is ~0.0035 for hydrogen abstraction from 1,4-cyclohexadiene, ~0.078 for abstraction from the tin hydride, and ≥ 5 for abstraction from cyclohexadienyl radicals. These data indicate that abstraction of hydrogen from triethyltin hydride is more rapid than from 1,4-cyclohexadiene by a factor of ~1000 for 4, but only ~50 for 3.

Measurements of product ratios at several temperatures allowed the construction of an approximate energy-level scheme. A major inference is that isomerization of 3 to 4 is exothermic by 8 ± 3 kcal/mole, in good agreement with expectations based on bond dissociation energies. Absolute rate-constant estimates are also given.

The results are nicely compatible with a classical-radical mechanism, but attempted interpretation in terms of a nonclassical radical precursor of product ratios formed even from equilibrated radical intermediates leads, it is argued, to serious difficulties.

The roles played by hydrogen abstraction from 1,4,-cyclohexadiene and from the derived cyclohexadienyl radicals were probed by fitting observed ratios of 6:5 and 5:10 in the sense of least-squares to expressions derived for a complex mechanistic scheme. Some 30 to 40 measurements on each product ratio, obtained under a variety of experimental conditions, could be fit with an average deviation of ~6%. Significant systematic deviations were found, but these could largely be redressed by assuming (a) that the rate constant for reaction of 4 with cyclohexadienyl radical is inversely proportional to the viscosity of the medium (i.e., is diffusion-controlled), and (b) that k_a/k_r for hydrogen abstraction from 1,4-cyclohexadiene depends slightly on the composition of the medium. An average deviation of 4.4% was thereby attained.

Degassed thermal decomposition of the ring-opened perester in the presence of the triethyltin hydride occurs primarily by attack on perester of triethyltin radicals, presumably at the –O-O- bond, even at 0.01 M tin hydride at 100 and 125°. Tin ester and tin ether are apparently formed in closely similar amounts under these conditions, but the tin ester predominates at room temperature in the companion air-induced decomposition, indicating that attack on perester to give the tin ether requires an activation energy approximately 5 kcal/mole in excess of that for the formation of tin ester.

I. The crystal structure of potassium bis(tricyanovinyl)amine. II. Nuclear magnetic resonance studies of alkali halide solutions. III. Elucidation of the intramolecular hydrogen bond in acetylacetone by the deuterium isotope effect on the chemical shift of the bridge hydrogen

Part I

Potassium bis-(tricyanovinyl) amine, K⁺N[C(CN)=C(CN)₂]₂^-, crystallizes in the monoclinic system with the space group Cc and lattice constants, a = 13.346 ± 0.003 Å, c = 8.992 ± 0.003 Å, B = 114.42 ± 0.02°, and Z = 4. Three dimensional intensity data were collected by layers perpendicular to b* and c* axes. The crystal structure was refined by the least squares method with anisotropic temperature factor to an R value of 0.064.

The average carbon-carbon and carbon-nitrogen bond distances in –C-CΞN are 1.441 ± 0.016 Å and 1.146 ± 0.014 Å respectively. The bis-(tricyanovinyl) amine anion is approximately planar. The coordination number of the potassium ion is eight with bond distances from 2.890 Å to 3.408 Å. The bond angle C-N-C of the amine nitrogen is 132.4 ± 1.9°. Among six cyano groups in the molecule, two of them are bent by what appear to be significant amounts (5.0° and 7.2°). The remaining four are linear within the experimental error. The bending can probably be explained by molecular packing forces in the crystals.

Part II

The nuclear magnetic resonance of ⁸¹Br and ¹²⁷I in aqueous solutions were studied. The cation-halide ion interactions were studied by studying the effect of the Li⁺, Na⁺, K⁺, Mg⁺⁺, Cs⁺ upon the line width of the halide ions. The solvent-halide ion interactions were studied by studying the effects of methanol, acetonitrile, and acetone upon the line width of ⁸¹Br and ¹²⁷I in the aqueous solutions. It was found that the viscosity plays a very important role upon the halide ions line width. There is no specific cation-halide ion interaction for those ions such as Mg⁺⁺, Di⁺, Na⁺, and K⁺, whereas the Cs⁺ - halide ion interaction is strong. The effect of organic solvents upon the halide ion line width in aqueous solutions is in the order acetone ˃ acetonitrile ˃ methanol. It is suggested that halide ions do form some stable complex with the solvent molecules and the reason Cs⁺ can replace one of the ligands in the solvent-halide ion complex.

Part III

An unusually large isotope effect on the bridge hydrogen chemical shift of the enol form of pentanedione-2, 4(acetylacetone) and 3-methylpentanedione-2, 4 has been observed. An attempt has been made to interpret this effect. It is suggested from the deuterium isotope effect studies, temperature dependence of the bridge hydrogen chemical shift studies, IR studies in the OH, OD, and C=O stretch regions, and the HMO calculations, that there may probably be two structures for the enol form of acetylacetone. The difference between these two structures arises mainly from the electronic structure of the π-system. The relative population of these two structures at various temperatures for normal acetylacetone and at room temperature for the deuterated acetylacetone were calculated.

Real-Time Bayesian Analysis of Ground Motion Envelopes for Earthquake Early Warning

Current earthquake early warning systems usually make magnitude and location predictions and send out a warning to the users based on those predictions. We describe an algorithm that assesses the validity of the predictions in real-time. Our algorithm monitors the envelopes of horizontal and vertical acceleration, velocity, and displacement. We compare the observed envelopes with the ones predicted by Cua & Heaton's envelope ground motion prediction equations (Cua 2005). We define a "test function" as the logarithm of the ratio between observed and predicted envelopes at every second in real-time. Once the envelopes deviate beyond an acceptable threshold, we declare a misfit. Kurtosis and skewness of a time evolving test function are used to rapidly identify a misfit. Real-time kurtosis and skewness calculations are also inputs to both probabilistic (Logistic Regression and Bayesian Logistic Regression) and nonprobabilistic (Least Squares and Linear Discriminant Analysis) models that ultimately decide if there is an unacceptable level of misfit. This algorithm is designed to work at a wide range of amplitude scales. When tested with synthetic and actual seismic signals from past events, it works for both small and large events.