Complexity of rupture propagation in large earthquakes in relation to tectonic environment

Complexity in the earthquake rupture process can result from many factors. This study investigates the origin of such complexity by examining several recent, large earthquakes in detail. In each case the local tectonic environment plays an important role in understanding the source of the complexity.

Several large shallow earthquakes (M_s > 7.0) along the Middle American Trench have similarities and differences between them that may lead to a better understanding of fracture and subduction processes. They are predominantly thrust events consistent with the known subduction of the Cocos plate beneath N. America. Two events occurring along this subduction zone close to triple junctions show considerable complexity. This may be attributable to a more heterogeneous stress environment in these regions and as such has implications for other subduction zone boundaries.

An event which looks complex but is actually rather simple is the 1978 Bermuda earthquake (M_s ~ 6). It is located predominantly in the mantle. Its mechanism is one of pure thrust faulting with a strike N 20°W and dip 42°NE. Its apparent complexity is caused by local crustal structure. This is an important event in terms of understanding and estimating seismic hazard on the eastern seaboard of N. America.

A study of several large strike-slip continental earthquakes identifies characteristics which are common to them and may be useful in determining what to expect from the next great earthquake on the San Andreas fault. The events are the 1976 Guatemala earthquake on the Motagua fault and two events on the Anatolian fault in Turkey (the 1967, Mudurnu Valley and 1976, E. Turkey events). An attempt to model the complex P-waveforms of these events results in good synthetic fits for the Guatemala and Mudurnu Valley events. However, the E. Turkey event proves to be too complex as it may have associated thrust or normal faulting. Several individual sources occurring at intervals of between 5 and 20 seconds characterize the Guatemala and Mudurnu Valley events. The maximum size of an individual source appears to be bounded at about 5 x 10²⁶ dyne-cm. A detailed source study including directivity is performed on the Guatemala event. The source time history of the Mudurnu Valley event illustrates its significance in modeling strong ground motion in the near field. The complex source time series of the 1967 event produces amplitudes greater by a factor of 2.5 than a uniform model scaled to the same size for a station 20 km from the fault.

Three large and important earthquakes demonstrate an important type of complexity --- multiple-fault complexity. The first, the 1976 Philippine earthquake, an oblique thrust event, represents the first seismological evidence for a northeast dipping subduction zone beneath the island of Mindanao. A large event, following the mainshock by 12 hours, occurred outside the aftershock area and apparently resulted from motion on a subsidiary fault since the event had a strike-slip mechanism.

An aftershock of the great 1960 Chilean earthquake on June 6, 1960, proved to be an interesting discovery. It appears to be a large strike-slip event at the main rupture's southern boundary. It most likely occurred on the landward extension of the Chile Rise transform fault, in the subducting plate. The results for this event suggest that a small event triggered a series of slow events; the duration of the whole sequence being longer than 1 hour. This is indeed a "slow earthquake".

Perhaps one of the most complex of events is the recent Tangshan, China event. It began as a large strike-slip event. Within several seconds of the mainshock it may have triggered thrust faulting to the south of the epicenter. There is no doubt, however, that it triggered a large oblique normal event to the northeast, 15 hours after the mainshock. This event certainly contributed to the great loss of life-sustained as a result of the Tangshan earthquake sequence.

What has been learned from these studies has been applied to predict what one might expect from the next great earthquake on the San Andreas. The expectation from this study is that such an event would be a large complex event, not unlike, but perhaps larger than, the Guatemala or Mudurnu Valley events. That is to say, it will most likely consist of a series of individual events in sequence. It is also quite possible that the event could trigger associated faulting on neighboring fault systems such as those occurring in the Transverse Ranges. This has important bearing on the earthquake hazard estimation for the region.

Generalizations and extensions of the Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equations

The problem of determining probability density functions of general transformations of random processes is considered in this thesis. A method of solution is developed in which partial differential equations satisfied by the unknown density function are derived. These partial differential equations are interpreted as generalized forms of the classical Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equations and are shown to imply the classical equations for certain classes of Markov processes. Extensions of the generalized equations which overcome degeneracy occurring in the steady-state case are also obtained.

The equations of Darling and Siegert are derived as special cases of the generalized equations thereby providing unity to two previously existing theories. A technique for treating non-Markov processes by studying closely related Markov processes is proposed and is seen to yield the Darling and Siegert equations directly from the classical Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equations.

As illustrations of their applicability, the generalized Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equations are presented for certain joint probability density functions associated with the linear filter. These equations are solved for the density of the output of an arbitrary linear filter excited by Markov Gaussian noise and for the density of the output of an RC filter excited by the Poisson square wave. This latter density is also found by using the extensions of the generalized equations mentioned above. Finally, some new approaches for finding the output probability density function of an RC filter-limiter-RC filter system driven by white Gaussian noise are included. The results in this case exhibit the data required for complete solution and clearly illustrate some of the mathematical difficulties inherent to the use of the generalized equations.

Small scale turbulence in high Karlovitz number premixed flames

The purpose of this thesis is to characterize the behavior of the smallest turbulent scales in high Karlovitz number (Ka) premixed flames. These scales are particularly important in the two-way coupling between turbulence and chemistry and better understanding of these scales will support future modeling efforts using large eddy simulations (LES). The smallest turbulent scales are studied by considering the vorticity vector, ω, and its transport equation.

Due to the complexity of turbulent combustion introduced by the wide range of length and time scales, the two-dimensional vortex-flame interaction is first studied as a simplified test case. Numerical and analytical techniques are used to discern the dominate transport terms and their effects on vorticity based on the initial size and strength of the vortex. This description of the effects of the flame on a vortex provides a foundation for investigating vorticity in turbulent combustion.

Subsequently, enstrophy, ω² = ω • ω, and its transport equation are investigated in premixed turbulent combustion. For this purpose, a series of direct numerical simulations (DNS) of premixed n-heptane/air flames are performed, the conditions of which span a wide range of unburnt Karlovitz numbers and turbulent Reynolds numbers. Theoretical scaling analysis along with the DNS results support that, at high Karlovitz number, enstrophy transport is controlled by the viscous dissipation and vortex stretching/production terms. As a result, vorticity scales throughout the flame with the inverse of the Kolmogorov time scale, τ_η, just as in homogeneous isotropic turbulence. As τ_η is only a function of the viscosity and dissipation rate, this supports the validity of Kolmogorov’s first similarity hypothesis for sufficiently high Ka numbers (Ka ≳ 100). These conclusions are in contrast to low Karlovitz number behavior, where dilatation and baroclinic torque have a significant impact on vorticity within the flame. Results are unaffected by the transport model, chemical model, turbulent Reynolds number, and lastly the physical configuration.

Next, the isotropy of vorticity is assessed. It is found that given a sufficiently large value of the Karlovitz number (Ka ≳ 100) the vorticity is isotropic. At lower Karlovitz numbers, anisotropy develops due to the effects of the flame on the vortex stretching/production term. In this case, the local dynamics of vorticity in the strain-rate tensor, S, eigenframe are altered by the flame. At sufficiently high Karlovitz numbers, the dynamics of vorticity in this eigenframe resemble that of homogeneous isotropic turbulence.

Combined, the results of this thesis support that both the magnitude and orientation of vorticity resemble the behavior of homogeneous isotropic turbulence, given a sufficiently high Karlovitz number (Ka ≳ 100). This supports the validity of Kolmogorov’s first similarity hypothesis and the hypothesis of local isotropy under these condition. However, dramatically different behavior is found at lower Karlovitz numbers. These conclusions provides/suggests directions for modeling high Karlovitz number premixed flames using LES. With more accurate models, the design of aircraft combustors and other combustion based devices may better mitigate the detrimental effects of combustion, from reducing CO₂ and soot production to increasing engine efficiency.