Sustainable IT and IT for sustainability

Energy and sustainability have become one of the most critical issues of our generation. While the abundant potential of renewable energy such as solar and wind provides a real opportunity for sustainability, their intermittency and uncertainty present a daunting operating challenge. This thesis aims to develop analytical models, deployable algorithms, and real systems to enable efficient integration of renewable energy into complex distributed systems with limited information.

The first thrust of the thesis is to make IT systems more sustainable by facilitating the integration of renewable energy into these systems. IT represents the fastest growing sectors in energy usage and greenhouse gas pollution. Over the last decade there are dramatic improvements in the energy efficiency of IT systems, but the efficiency improvements do not necessarily lead to reduction in energy consumption because more servers are demanded. Further, little effort has been put in making IT more sustainable, and most of the improvements are from improved "engineering" rather than improved "algorithms". In contrast, my work focuses on developing algorithms with rigorous theoretical analysis that improve the sustainability of IT. In particular, this thesis seeks to exploit the flexibilities of cloud workloads both (i) in time by scheduling delay-tolerant workloads and (ii) in space by routing requests to geographically diverse data centers. These opportunities allow data centers to adaptively respond to renewable availability, varying cooling efficiency, and fluctuating energy prices, while still meeting performance requirements. The design of the enabling algorithms is however very challenging because of limited information, non-smooth objective functions and the need for distributed control. Novel distributed algorithms are developed with theoretically provable guarantees to enable the "follow the renewables" routing. Moving from theory to practice, I helped HP design and implement industry's first Net-zero Energy Data Center.

The second thrust of this thesis is to use IT systems to improve the sustainability and efficiency of our energy infrastructure through data center demand response. The main challenges as we integrate more renewable sources to the existing power grid come from the fluctuation and unpredictability of renewable generation. Although energy storage and reserves can potentially solve the issues, they are very costly. One promising alternative is to make the cloud data centers demand responsive. The potential of such an approach is huge.

To realize this potential, we need adaptive and distributed control of cloud data centers and new electricity market designs for distributed electricity resources. My work is progressing in both directions. In particular, I have designed online algorithms with theoretically guaranteed performance for data center operators to deal with uncertainties under popular demand response programs. Based on local control rules of customers, I have further designed new pricing schemes for demand response to align the interests of customers, utility companies, and the society to improve social welfare.

Optimization and Control of Power Flow in Distribution Networks

Climate change is arguably the most critical issue facing our generation and the next. As we move towards a sustainable future, the grid is rapidly evolving with the integration of more and more renewable energy resources and the emergence of electric vehicles. In particular, large scale adoption of residential and commercial solar photovoltaics (PV) plants is completely changing the traditional slowly-varying unidirectional power flow nature of distribution systems. High share of intermittent renewables pose several technical challenges, including voltage and frequency control. But along with these challenges, renewable generators also bring with them millions of new DC-AC inverter controllers each year. These fast power electronic devices can provide an unprecedented opportunity to increase energy efficiency and improve power quality, if combined with well-designed inverter control algorithms. The main goal of this dissertation is to develop scalable power flow optimization and control methods that achieve system-wide efficiency, reliability, and robustness for power distribution networks of future with high penetration of distributed inverter-based renewable generators.

Proposed solutions to power flow control problems in the literature range from fully centralized to fully local ones. In this thesis, we will focus on the two ends of this spectrum. In the first half of this thesis (chapters 2 and 3), we seek optimal solutions to voltage control problems provided a centralized architecture with complete information. These solutions are particularly important for better understanding the overall system behavior and can serve as a benchmark to compare the performance of other control methods against. To this end, we first propose a branch flow model (BFM) for the analysis and optimization of radial and meshed networks. This model leads to a new approach to solve optimal power flow (OPF) problems using a two step relaxation procedure, which has proven to be both reliable and computationally efficient in dealing with the non-convexity of power flow equations in radial and weakly-meshed distribution networks. We will then apply the results to fast time- scale inverter var control problem and evaluate the performance on real-world circuits in Southern California Edison’s service territory.

The second half (chapters 4 and 5), however, is dedicated to study local control approaches, as they are the only options available for immediate implementation on today’s distribution networks that lack sufficient monitoring and communication infrastructure. In particular, we will follow a reverse and forward engineering approach to study the recently proposed piecewise linear volt/var control curves. It is the aim of this dissertation to tackle some key problems in these two areas and contribute by providing rigorous theoretical basis for future work.

Microscopic Origin of Macroscopic Strength in Granular Media: A Numerical and Analytical Approach

Constitutive modeling in granular materials has historically been based on macroscopic experimental observations that, while being usually effective at predicting the bulk behavior of these type of materials, suffer important limitations when it comes to understanding the physics behind grain-to-grain interactions that induce the material to macroscopically behave in a given way when subjected to certain boundary conditions.

The advent of the discrete element method (DEM) in the late 1970s helped scientists and engineers to gain a deeper insight into some of the most fundamental mechanisms furnishing the grain scale. However, one of the most critical limitations of classical DEM schemes has been their inability to account for complex grain morphologies. Instead, simplified geometries such as discs, spheres, and polyhedra have typically been used. Fortunately, in the last fifteen years, there has been an increasing development of new computational as well as experimental techniques, such as non-uniform rational basis splines (NURBS) and 3D X-ray Computed Tomography (3DXRCT), which are contributing to create new tools that enable the inclusion of complex grain morphologies into DEM schemes.

Yet, as the scientific community is still developing these new tools, there is still a gap in thoroughly understanding the physical relations connecting grain and continuum scales as well as in the development of discrete techniques that can predict the emergent behavior of granular materials without resorting to phenomenology, but rather can directly unravel the micro-mechanical origin of macroscopic behavior.

In order to contribute towards closing the aforementioned gap, we have developed a micro-mechanical analysis of macroscopic peak strength, critical state, and residual strength in two-dimensional non-cohesive granular media, where typical continuum constitutive quantities such as frictional strength and dilation angle are explicitly related to their corresponding grain-scale counterparts (e.g., inter-particle contact forces, fabric, particle displacements, and velocities), providing an across-the-scale basis for better understanding and modeling granular media.

In the same way, we utilize a new DEM scheme (LS-DEM) that takes advantage of a mathematical technique called level set (LS) to enable the inclusion of real grain shapes into a classical discrete element method. After calibrating LS-DEM with respect to real experimental results, we exploit part of its potential to study the dependency of critical state (CS) parameters such as the critical state line (CSL) slope, CSL intercept, and CS friction angle on the grain's morphology, i.e., sphericity, roundness, and regularity.

Finally, we introduce a first computational algorithm to ``clone'' the grain morphologies of a sample of real digital grains. This cloning algorithm allows us to generate an arbitrary number of cloned grains that satisfy the same morphological features (e.g., roundness and aspect ratio) displayed by their real parents and can be included into a DEM simulation of a given mechanical phenomenon. In turn, this will help with the development of discrete techniques that can directly predict the engineering scale behavior of granular media without resorting to phenomenology.

Robot navigation in dense crowds : statistical models and experimental studies of human robot cooperation

This thesis explores the problem of mobile robot navigation in dense human crowds. We begin by considering a fundamental impediment to classical motion planning algorithms called the freezing robot problem: once the environment surpasses a certain level of complexity, the planner decides that all forward paths are unsafe, and the robot freezes in place (or performs unnecessary maneuvers) to avoid collisions. Since a feasible path typically exists, this behavior is suboptimal. Existing approaches have focused on reducing predictive uncertainty by employing higher fidelity individual dynamics models or heuristically limiting the individual predictive covariance to prevent overcautious navigation. We demonstrate that both the individual prediction and the individual predictive uncertainty have little to do with this undesirable navigation behavior. Additionally, we provide evidence that dynamic agents are able to navigate in dense crowds by engaging in joint collision avoidance, cooperatively making room to create feasible trajectories. We accordingly develop interacting Gaussian processes, a prediction density that captures cooperative collision avoidance, and a "multiple goal" extension that models the goal driven nature of human decision making. Navigation naturally emerges as a statistic of this distribution.

Most importantly, we empirically validate our models in the Chandler dining hall at Caltech during peak hours, and in the process, carry out the first extensive quantitative study of robot navigation in dense human crowds (collecting data on 488 runs). The multiple goal interacting Gaussian processes algorithm performs comparably with human teleoperators in crowd densities nearing 1 person/m², while a state of the art noncooperative planner exhibits unsafe behavior more than 3 times as often as the multiple goal extension, and twice as often as the basic interacting Gaussian process approach. Furthermore, a reactive planner based on the widely used dynamic window approach proves insufficient for crowd densities above 0.55 people/m². We also show that our noncooperative planner or our reactive planner capture the salient characteristics of nearly any dynamic navigation algorithm. For inclusive validation purposes, we show that either our non-interacting planner or our reactive planner captures the salient characteristics of nearly any existing dynamic navigation algorithm. Based on these experimental results and theoretical observations, we conclude that a cooperation model is critical for safe and efficient robot navigation in dense human crowds.

Finally, we produce a large database of ground truth pedestrian crowd data. We make this ground truth database publicly available for further scientific study of crowd prediction models, learning from demonstration algorithms, and human robot interaction models in general.

Dynamics of cell–matrix mechanical interactions in three dimensions

The forces cells apply to their surroundings control biological processes such as growth, adhesion, development, and migration. In the past 20 years, a number of experimental techniques have been developed to measure such cell tractions. These approaches have primarily measured the tractions applied by cells to synthetic two-dimensional substrates, which do not mimic in vivo conditions for most cell types. Many cell types live in a fibrous three-dimensional (3D) matrix environment. While studying cell behavior in such 3D matrices will provide valuable insights for the mechanobiology and tissue engineering communities, no experimental approaches have yet measured cell tractions in a fibrous 3D matrix.

This thesis describes the development and application of an experimental technique for quantifying cellular forces in a natural 3D matrix. Cells and their surrounding matrix are imaged in three dimensions with high speed confocal microscopy. The cell-induced matrix displacements are computed from the 3D image volumes using digital volume correlation. The strain tensor in the 3D matrix is computed by differentiating the displacements, and the stress tensor is computed by applying a constitutive law. Finally, tractions applied by the cells to the matrix are computed directly from the stress tensor.

The 3D traction measurement approach is used to investigate how cells mechanically interact with the matrix in biologically relevant processes such as division and invasion. During division, a single mother cell undergoes a drastic morphological change to split into two daughter cells. In a 3D matrix, dividing cells apply tensile force to the matrix through thin, persistent extensions that in turn direct the orientation and location of the daughter cells. Cell invasion into a 3D matrix is the first step required for cell migration in three dimensions. During invasion, cells initially apply minimal tractions to the matrix as they extend thin protrusions into the matrix fiber network. The invading cells anchor themselves to the matrix using these protrusions, and subsequently pull on the matrix to propel themselves forward.

Lastly, this thesis describes a constitutive model for the 3D fibrous matrix that uses a finite element (FE) approach. The FE model simulates the fibrous microstructure of the matrix and matches the cell-induced matrix displacements observed experimentally using digital volume correlation. The model is applied to predict how cells mechanically sense one another in a 3D matrix. It is found that cell-induced matrix displacements localize along linear paths. These linear paths propagate over a long range through the fibrous matrix, and provide a mechanism for cell-cell signaling and mechanosensing. The FE model developed here has the potential to reveal the effects of matrix density, inhomogeneity, and anisotropy in signaling cell behavior through mechanotransduction.

Geochemistry and resonance ionization of platinum-group elements

Experimental studies were conducted with the goals of 1) determining the origin of Pt- group element (PGE) alloys and associated mineral assemblages in refractory inclusions from meteorites and 2) developing a new ultrasensitive method for the in situ chemical and isotopic analysis of PGE. A general review of the geochemistry and cosmochemistry of the PGE is given, and specific research contributions are presented within the context of this broad framework.

An important step toward understanding the cosmochemistry of the PGE is the determination of the origin of POE-rich metallic phases (most commonly εRu-Fe) that are found in Ca, AJ-rich refractory inclusions (CAI) in C3V meteorites. These metals occur along with γNi-Fe metals, Ni-Fe sulfides and Fe oxides in multiphase opaque assemblages. Laboratory experiments were used to show that the mineral assemblages and textures observed in opaque assemblages could be produced by sulfidation and oxidation of once homogeneous Ni-Fe-PGE metals. Phase equilibria, partitioning and diffusion kinetics were studied in the Ni-Fe-Ru system in order to quantify the conditions of opaque assemblage formation. Phase boundaries and tie lines in the Ni-Fe-Ru system were determined at 1273, 1073 and 873K using an experimental technique that allowed the investigation of a large portion of the Ni-Fe-Ru system with a single experiment at each temperature by establishing a concentration gradient within which local equilibrium between coexisting phases was maintained. A wide miscibility gap was found to be present at each temperature, separating a hexagonal close-packed εRu-Fe phase from a face-centered cubic γNi-Fe phase. Phase equilibria determined here for the Ni-Fe-Ru system, and phase equilibria from the literature for the Ni-Fe-S and Ni-Fe-O systems, were compared with analyses of minerals from opaque assemblages to estimate the temperature and chemical conditions of opaque assemblage formation. It was determined that opaque assemblages equilibrated at a temperature of ~770K, a sulfur fugacity 10 times higher than an equilibrium solar gas, and an oxygen fugacity 10⁶ times higher than an equilibrium solar gas.

Diffusion rates between -γNi-Fe and εRu-Fe metal play a critical role in determining the time (with respect to CAI petrogenesis) and duration of the opaque assemblage equilibration process. The diffusion coefficient for Ru in Ni (D^Ru_Ni) was determined as an analog for the Ni-Fe-Ru system by the thin-film diffusion method in the temperature range of 1073 to 1673K and is given by the expression:

D^Ru_Ni (cm² sec^-1) = 5.0(±0.7) x 10^-3 exp(-2.3(±0.1) x 10¹² erg mole^-1/RT) where R is the gas constant and T is the temperature in K. Based on the rates of dissolution and exsolution of metallic phases in the Ni-Fe-Ru system it is suggested that opaque assemblages equilibrated after the melting and crystallization of host CAI during a metamorphic event of ≥ 10³ years duration. It is inferred that opaque assemblages originated as immiscible metallic liquid droplets in the CAI silicate liquid. The bulk compositions of PGE in these precursor alloys reflects an early stage of condensation from the solar nebula and the partitioning of V between the precursor alloys and CAI silicate liquid reflects the reducing nebular conditions under which CAI were melted. The individual mineral phases now observed in opaque assemblages do not preserve an independent history prior to CAI melting and crystallization, but instead provide important information on the post-accretionary history of C3V meteorites and allow the quantification of the temperature, sulfur fugacity and oxygen fugacity of cooling planetary environments. This contrasts with previous models that called upon the formation of opaque assemblages by aggregation of phases that formed independently under highly variable conditions in the solar nebula prior to the crystallization of CAI.

Analytical studies were carried out on PGE-rich phases from meteorites and the products of synthetic experiments using traditional electron microprobe x-ray analytical techniques. The concentrations of PGE in common minerals from meteorites and terrestrial rocks are far below the ~100 ppm detection limit of the electron microprobe. This has limited the scope of analytical studies to the very few cases where PGE are unusually enriched. To study the distribution of PGE in common minerals will require an in situ analytical technique with much lower detection limits than any methods currently in use. To overcome this limitation, resonance ionization of sputtered atoms was investigated for use as an ultrasensitive in situ analytical technique for the analysis of PGE. The mass spectrometric analysis of Os and Re was investigated using a pulsed primary Ar⁺ ion beam to provide sputtered atoms for resonance ionization mass spectrometry. An ionization scheme for Os that utilizes three resonant energy levels (including an autoionizing energy level) was investigated and found to have superior sensitivity and selectivity compared to nonresonant and one and two energy level resonant ionization schemes. An elemental selectivity for Os over Re of ≥ 10³ was demonstrated. It was found that detuning the ionizing laser from the autoionizing energy level to an arbitrary region in the ionization continuum resulted in a five-fold decrease in signal intensity and a ten-fold decrease in elemental selectivity. Osmium concentrations in synthetic metals and iron meteorites were measured to demonstrate the analytical capabilities of the technique. A linear correlation between Os⁺ signal intensity and the known Os concentration was observed over a range of nearly 10⁴ in Os concentration with an accuracy of ~ ±10%, a millimum detection limit of 7 parts per billion atomic, and a useful yield of 1%. Resonance ionization of sputtered atoms samples the dominant neutral-fraction of sputtered atoms and utilizes multiphoton resonance ionization to achieve high sensitivity and to eliminate atomic and molecular interferences. Matrix effects should be small compared to secondary ion mass spectrometry because ionization occurs in the gas phase and is largely independent of the physical properties of the matrix material. Resonance ionization of sputtered atoms can be applied to in situ chemical analysis of most high ionization potential elements (including all of the PGE) in a wide range of natural and synthetic materials. The high useful yield and elemental selectivity of this method should eventually allow the in situ measurement of Os isotope ratios in some natural samples and in sample extracts enriched in PGE by fire assay fusion.

Phase equilibria and diffusion experiments have provided the basis for a reinterpretation of the origin of opaque assemblages in CAI and have yielded quantitative information on conditions in the primitive solar nebula and cooling planetary environments. Development of the method of resonance ionization of sputtered atoms for the analysis of Os has shown that this technique has wide applications in geochemistry and will for the first time allow in situ studies of the distribution of PGE at the low concentration levels at which they occur in common minerals.

Experimental study study of antiproton-proton annihilation into a pair of charged Pi-Mesons or K-Mesons for incident antiproton mementa in the range from 0.72 GeV/c to 2.62 GeV/c

The cross sections for the two antiproton-proton annihilation-in-flight modes,

ˉp + p → π⁺ + π^-

ˉp + p → k⁺ + k^-

were measured for fifteen laboratory antiproton beam momenta ranging from 0.72 to 2.62 GeV/c. No magnets were used to determine the charges in the final state. As a result, the angular distributions were obtained in the form [dσ/dΩ (Θ_C.M.) + dσ/dΩ (π – Θ_C.M.)] for 45 ≲ Θ_C.M. ≲ 135°.

A hodoscope-counter system was used to discriminate against events with final states having more than two particles and antiproton-proton elastic scattering events. One spark chamber was used to record the track of each of the two charged final particles. A total of about 40,000 pictures were taken. The events were analyzed by measuring the laboratory angle of the track in each chamber. The value of the square of the mass of the final particles was calculated for each event assuming the reaction

ˉp + p → a pair of particles with equal masses.

About 20,000 events were found to be either annihilation into π ^±-pair or k ^±-pair events. The two different charged meson pair modes were also distinctly separated.

The average differential cross section of ˉp + p → π⁺ + π^- varied from ~ 25 µb/sr at antiproton beam momentum 0.72 GeV/c (total energy in center-of-mass system, √s = 2.0 GeV) to ~ 2 µb/sr at beam momentum 2.62 GeV/c (√s = 2.64 GeV). The most striking feature in the angular distribution was a peak at Θ_C.M. = 90° (cos Θ_C.M. = 0) which increased with √s and reached a maximum at √s ~ 2.1 GeV (beam momentum ~ 1.1 GeV/c). Then it diminished and seemed to disappear completely at √s ~ 2.5 GeV (beam momentum ~ 2.13 GeV/c). A valley in the angular distribution occurred at cos Θ_C.M. ≈ 0.4. The differential cross section then increased as cos Θ_C.M. approached 1.

The average differential cross section for ˉp + p → k⁺ + k^- was about one third of that of the π^±-pair mode throughout the energy range of this experiment. At the lower energies, the angular distribution, unlike that of the π^±-pair mode, was quite isotropic. However, a peak at Θ_C.M. = 90° seemed to develop at √s ~ 2.37 GeV (antiproton beam momentum ~ 1.82 GeV/c). No observable change was seen at that energy in the π^±-pair cross section.

The possible connection of these features with the observed meson resonances at 2.2 GeV and 2.38 GeV, and its implications, were discussed.

Thermodynamic and kinetic behavior of an argon plasma jet. Decomposition of nitric oxide between 1300 - 1750 degrees K in an argon plasma

In the first part of the study, an RF coupled, atmospheric pressure, laminar plasma jet of argon was investigated for thermodynamic equilibrium and some rate processes.

Improved values of transition probabilities for 17 lines of argon I were developed from known values for 7 lines. The effect of inhomogeneity of the source was pointed out.

The temperatures, T, and the electron densities, n_e , were determined spectroscopically from the population densities of the higher excited states assuming the Saha-Boltzmann relationship to be valid for these states. The axial velocities, v_z, were measured by tracing the paths of particles of boron nitride using a three-dimentional mapping technique. The above quantities varied in the following ranges: 10¹² ˂ n_e ˂ 10¹⁵ particles/cm³, 3500 ˂ T ˂ 11000 °K, and 200 ˂ v_z ˂ 1200 cm/sec.

The absence of excitation equilibrium for the lower excitation population including the ground state under certain conditions of T and n_e was established and the departure from equilibrium was examined quantitatively. The ground state was shown to be highly underpopulated for the decaying plasma.

Rates of recombination between electrons and ions were obtained by solving the steady-state equation of continuity for electrons. The observed rates were consistent with a dissociative-molecular ion mechanism with a steady-state assumption for the molecular ions.

In the second part of the study, decomposition of NO was studied in the plasma at lower temperatures. The mole fractions of NO denoted by x_NO were determined gas-chromatographically and varied between 0.0012 ˂ x_NO ˂ 0.0055. The temperatures were measured pyrometrically and varied between 1300 ˂ T ˂ 1750°K. The observed rates of decomposition were orders of magnitude greater than those obtained by the previous workers under purely thermal reaction conditions. The overall activation energy was about 9 kcal/g mol which was considerably lower than the value under thermal conditions. The effect of excess nitrogen was to reduce the rate of decomposition of NO and to increase the order of the reaction with respect to NO from 1.33 to 1.85. The observed rates were consistent with a chain mechanism in which atomic nitrogen and oxygen act as chain carriers. The increased rates of decomposition and the reduced activation energy in the presence of the plasma could be explained on the basis of the observed large amount of atomic nitrogen which was probably formed as the result of reactions between excited atoms and ions of argon and the molecular nitrogen.

1. Ultrasonic studies of binary liquid structure in the critical region. Theory and experiment for the 2,6-lutidine/water system. 2. Hartree-Fock calculations of electric polarizabilities of some simple atoms and molecules, and their practicality. 3. Calculation of vibrational transition probabilities in collinear atom-diatom and diatom-diatom collisions with Lennard-Jones interaction

Part 1. Many interesting visual and mechanical phenomena occur in the critical region of fluids, both for the gas-liquid and liquid-liquid transitions. The precise thermodynamic and transport behavior here has some broad consequences for the molecular theory of liquids. Previous studies in this laboratory on a liquid-liquid critical mixture via ultrasonics supported a basically classical analysis of fluid behavior by M. Fixman (e. g., the free energy is assumed analytic in intensive variables in the thermodynamics)--at least when the fluid is not too close to critical. A breakdown in classical concepts is evidenced close to critical, in some well-defined ways. We have studied herein a liquid-liquid critical system of complementary nature (possessing a lower critical mixing or consolute temperature) to all previous mixtures, to look for new qualitative critical behavior. We did not find such new behavior in the ultrasonic absorption ascribable to the critical fluctuations, but we did find extra absorption due to chemical processes (yet these are related to the mixing behavior generating the lower consolute point). We rederived, corrected, and extended Fixman's analysis to interpret our experimental results in these more complex circumstances. The entire account of theory and experiment is prefaced by an extensive introduction recounting the general status of liquid state theory. The introduction provides a context for our present work, and also points out problems deserving attention. Interest in these problems was stimulated by this work but also by work in Part 3.

Part 2. Among variational theories of electronic structure, the Hartree-Fock theory has proved particularly valuable for a practical understanding of such properties as chemical binding, electric multipole moments, and X-ray scattering intensity. It also provides the most tractable method of calculating first-order properties under external or internal one-electron perturbations, either developed explicitly in orders of perturbation theory or in the fully self-consistent method. The accuracy and consistency of first-order properties are poorer than those of zero-order properties, but this is most often due to the use of explicit approximations in solving the perturbed equations, or to inadequacy of the variational basis in size or composition. We have calculated the electric polarizabilities of H₂, He, Li, Be, LiH, and N₂ by Hartree-Fock theory, using exact perturbation theory or the fully self-consistent method, as dictated by convenience. By careful studies on total basis set composition, we obtained good approximations to limiting Hartree-Fock values of polarizabilities with bases of reasonable size. The values for all species, and for each direction in the molecular cases, are within 8% of experiment, or of best theoretical values in the absence of the former. Our results support the use of unadorned Hartree-Pock theory for static polarizabilities needed in interpreting electron-molecule scattering data, collision-induced light scattering experiments, and other phenomena involving experimentally inaccessible polarizabilities.

Part 3. Numerical integration of the close-coupled scattering equations has been carried out to obtain vibrational transition probabilities for some models of the electronically adiabatic H₂-H₂ collision. All the models use a Lennard-Jones interaction potential between nearest atoms in the collision partners. We have analyzed the results for some insight into the vibrational excitation process in its dependence on the energy of collision, the nature of the vibrational binding potential, and other factors. We conclude also that replacement of earlier, simpler models of the interaction potential by the Lennard-Jones form adds very little realism for all the complication it introduces. A brief introduction precedes the presentation of our work and places it in the context of attempts to understand the collisional activation process in chemical reactions as well as some other chemical dynamics.