Probability in Quantum Mechanics: The Everett Interpretation and the Decision-Theoretic Program

The Everett interpretation of quantum mechanics is an increasingly popular alternative to the traditional Copenhagen interpretation, but there are a few major issues that prevent the widespread adoption. One of these issues is the origin of probabilities in the Everett interpretation, which this thesis will attempt to survey. The most successful resolution of the probability problem thus far is the decision-theoretic program, which attempts to frame probabilities as outcomes of rational decision making. This marks a departure from orthodox interpretations of probabilities in the physical sciences, where probabilities are thought to be objective, stemming from symmetry considerations. This thesis will attempt to offer evaluations on the decision-theoretic program.

On the thermal budget of Pahoehoe lava flows

In this thesis I investigate some aspects of the thermal budget of pahoehoe lava flows. This is done with a combination of general field observations, quantitative modeling, and specific field experiments. The results of this work apply to pahoehoe flows in general, even though the vast bulk of the work has been conducted on the lavas formed by the Pu'u 'O'o - Kupaianaha eruption of Kilauea Volcano on Hawai'i. The field observations rely heavily on discussions with the staff of the United States Geological Survey's Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO), under whom I labored repeatedly in 1991-1993 for a period totaling about 10 months.

The quantitative models I have constructed are based on the physical processes observed by others and myself to be active on pahoehoe lava flows. By building up these models from the basic physical principles involved, this work avoids many of the pitfalls of earlier attempts to fit field observations with "intuitively appropriate" mathematical expressions. Unlike many earlier works, my model results can be analyzed in terms of the interactions between the different physical processes. I constructed models to: (1) describe the initial cooling of small pahoehoe flow lobes and (2) understand the thermal budget of lava tubes.

The field experiments were designed either to validate model results or to constrain key input parameters. In support of the cooling model for pahoehoe flow lobes, attempts were made to measure: (1) the cooling within the flow lobes, (2) the amount of heat transported away from the lava by wind, and (3) the growth of the crust on the lobes. Field data collected by Jones [1992], Hon et al. [1994b], and Denlinger [Keszthelyi and Denlinger, in prep.] were also particularly useful in constraining my cooling model for flow lobes. Most of the field observations I have used to constrain the thermal budget of lava tubes were collected by HVO (geological and geophysical monitoring) and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (airborne infrared imagery [Realmuto et al., 1992]). I was able to assist HVO for part of their lava tube monitoring program and also to collect helicopterborne and ground-based IR video in collaboration with JPL [Keszthelyi et al., 1993].

The most significant results of this work are (1) the quantitative demonstration that the emplacement of pahoehoe and 'a'a flows are the fundamentally different, (2) confirmation that even the longest lava flows observed in our Solar System could have formed as low effusion rate, tube-fed pahoehoe flows, and (3) the recognition that the atmosphere plays a very important role throughout the cooling of history of pahoehoe lava flows. In addition to answering specific questions about the thermal budget of tube-fed pahoehoe lava flows, this thesis has led to some additional, more general, insights into the emplacement of these lava flows. This general understanding of the tube-fed pahoehoe lava flow as a system has suggested foci for future research in this part of physical volcanology.