4 resultados para Initial-experience

em CaltechTHESIS


Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

On October 24, 1871, a massacre of eighteen Chinese in Los Angeles brought the small southern California settlement into the national spotlight. Within a few days, news of this “night of horrors” was reported in newspapers across the country. This massacre has been cited in Asian American narratives as the first documented outbreak of ethnic violence against a Chinese community in the United States. This is ironic because Los Angeles’ small population has generally placed it on the periphery in historical studies of the California anti-Chinese movement. Because the massacre predated Los Angeles’ organized Chinese exclusion movements of the late 1870s, it has often been erroneously dismissed as an aberration in the history of the city.

The violence of 1871 was an outburst highlighting existing community tensions that would become part of public debate by decade’s close. The purpose of this study is to insert the massacre into a broader context of anti-Chinese sentiments, legal discrimination, and dehumanization in nineteenth century Los Angeles. While a second incident of widespread anti-Chinese violence never occurred, brutal attacks directed at Chinese small businessmen and others highlighted continued community conflict. Similarly, economic rivalries and concerns over Chinese prostitution that underlay the 1871 massacre were manifest in later campaigns of economic discrimination and vice suppression that sought to minimize Chinese influence within municipal limits. An analysis of the massacre in terms of anti-Chinese legal, social and economic strategies in nineteenth-century Los Angeles will elucidate these important continuities.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC2) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC2 criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC2 criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC2 to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The early stage of laminar-turbulent transition in a hypervelocity boundary layer is studied using a combination of modal linear stability analysis, transient growth analysis, and direct numerical simulation. Modal stability analysis is used to clarify the behavior of first and second mode instabilities on flat plates and sharp cones for a wide range of high enthalpy flow conditions relevant to experiments in impulse facilities. Vibrational nonequilibrium is included in this analysis, its influence on the stability properties is investigated, and simple models for predicting when it is important are described.

Transient growth analysis is used to determine the optimal initial conditions that lead to the largest possible energy amplification within the flow. Such analysis is performed for both spatially and temporally evolving disturbances. The analysis again targets flows that have large stagnation enthalpy, such as those found in shock tunnels, expansion tubes, and atmospheric flight at high Mach numbers, and clarifies the effects of Mach number and wall temperature on the amplification achieved. Direct comparisons between modal and non-modal growth are made to determine the relative importance of these mechanisms under different flow regimes.

Conventional stability analysis employs the assumption that disturbances evolve with either a fixed frequency (spatial analysis) or a fixed wavenumber (temporal analysis). Direct numerical simulations are employed to relax these assumptions and investigate the downstream propagation of wave packets that are localized in space and time, and hence contain a distribution of frequencies and wavenumbers. Such wave packets are commonly observed in experiments and hence their amplification is highly relevant to boundary layer transition prediction. It is demonstrated that such localized wave packets experience much less growth than is predicted by spatial stability analysis, and therefore it is essential that the bandwidth of localized noise sources that excite the instability be taken into account in making transition estimates. A simple model based on linear stability theory is also developed which yields comparable results with an enormous reduction in computational expense. This enables the amplification of finite-width wave packets to be taken into account in transition prediction.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This investigation deals with certain generalizations of the classical uniqueness theorem for the second boundary-initial value problem in the linearized dynamical theory of not necessarily homogeneous nor isotropic elastic solids. First, the regularity assumptions underlying the foregoing theorem are relaxed by admitting stress fields with suitably restricted finite jump discontinuities. Such singularities are familiar from known solutions to dynamical elasticity problems involving discontinuous surface tractions or non-matching boundary and initial conditions. The proof of the appropriate uniqueness theorem given here rests on a generalization of the usual energy identity to the class of singular elastodynamic fields under consideration.

Following this extension of the conventional uniqueness theorem, we turn to a further relaxation of the customary smoothness hypotheses and allow the displacement field to be differentiable merely in a generalized sense, thereby admitting stress fields with square-integrable unbounded local singularities, such as those encountered in the presence of focusing of elastic waves. A statement of the traction problem applicable in these pathological circumstances necessitates the introduction of "weak solutions'' to the field equations that are accompanied by correspondingly weakened boundary and initial conditions. A uniqueness theorem pertaining to this weak formulation is then proved through an adaptation of an argument used by O. Ladyzhenskaya in connection with the first boundary-initial value problem for a second-order hyperbolic equation in a single dependent variable. Moreover, the second uniqueness theorem thus obtained contains, as a special case, a slight modification of the previously established uniqueness theorem covering solutions that exhibit only finite stress-discontinuities.