Markets and microstructure

This document contains three papers examining the microstructure of financial interaction in development and market settings. I first examine the industrial organization of financial exchanges, specifically limit order markets. In this section, I perform a case study of Google stock surrounding a surprising earnings announcement in the 3rd quarter of 2009, uncovering parameters that describe information flows and liquidity provision. I then explore the disbursement process for community-driven development projects. This section is game theoretic in nature, using a novel three-player ultimatum structure. I finally develop econometric tools to simulate equilibrium and identify equilibrium models in limit order markets.

In chapter two, I estimate an equilibrium model using limit order data, finding parameters that describe information and liquidity preferences for trading. As a case study, I estimate the model for Google stock surrounding an unexpected good-news earnings announcement in the 3rd quarter of 2009. I find a substantial decrease in asymmetric information prior to the earnings announcement. I also simulate counterfactual dealer markets and find empirical evidence that limit order markets perform more efficiently than do their dealer market counterparts.

In chapter three, I examine Community-Driven Development. Community-Driven Development is considered a tool empowering communities to develop their own aid projects. While evidence has been mixed as to the effectiveness of CDD in achieving disbursement to intended beneficiaries, the literature maintains that local elites generally take control of most programs. I present a three player ultimatum game which describes a potential decentralized aid procurement process. Players successively split a dollar in aid money, and the final player--the targeted community member--decides between whistle blowing or not. Despite the elite capture present in my model, I find conditions under which money reaches targeted recipients. My results describe a perverse possibility in the decentralized aid process which could make detection of elite capture more difficult than previously considered. These processes may reconcile recent empirical work claiming effectiveness of the decentralized aid process with case studies which claim otherwise.

In chapter four, I develop in more depth the empirical and computational means to estimate model parameters in the case study in chapter two. I describe the liquidity supplier problem and equilibrium among those suppliers. I then outline the analytical forms for computing certainty-equivalent utilities for the informed trader. Following this, I describe a recursive algorithm which facilitates computing equilibrium in supply curves. Finally, I outline implementation of the Method of Simulated Moments in this context, focusing on Indirect Inference and formulating the pseudo model.

Large-eddy simulations of fully developed turbulent channel and pipe flows with smooth and rough walls

Studies in turbulence often focus on two flow conditions, both of which occur frequently in real-world flows and are sought-after for their value in advancing turbulence theory. These are the high Reynolds number regime and the effect of wall surface roughness. In this dissertation, a Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) recreates both conditions over a wide range of Reynolds numbers Re_τ = O(10²)-O(10⁸) and accounts for roughness by locally modeling the statistical effects of near-wall anisotropic fine scales in a thin layer immediately above the rough surface. A subgrid, roughness-corrected wall model is introduced to dynamically transmit this modeled information from the wall to the outer LES, which uses a stretched-vortex subgrid-scale model operating in the bulk of the flow. Of primary interest is the Reynolds number and roughness dependence of these flows in terms of first and second order statistics. The LES is first applied to a fully turbulent uniformly-smooth/rough channel flow to capture the flow dynamics over smooth, transitionally rough and fully rough regimes. Results include a Moody-like diagram for the wall averaged friction factor, believed to be the first of its kind obtained from LES. Confirmation is found for experimentally observed logarithmic behavior in the normalized stream-wise turbulent intensities. Tight logarithmic collapse, scaled on the wall friction velocity, is found for smooth-wall flows when Re_τ ≥ O(10⁶) and in fully rough cases. Since the wall model operates locally and dynamically, the framework is used to investigate non-uniform roughness distribution cases in a channel, where the flow adjustments to sudden surface changes are investigated. Recovery of mean quantities and turbulent statistics after transitions are discussed qualitatively and quantitatively at various roughness and Reynolds number levels. The internal boundary layer, which is defined as the border between the flow affected by the new surface condition and the unaffected part, is computed, and a collapse of the profiles on a length scale containing the logarithm of friction Reynolds number is presented. Finally, we turn to the possibility of expanding the present framework to accommodate more general geometries. As a first step, the whole LES framework is modified for use in the curvilinear geometry of a fully-developed turbulent pipe flow, with implementation carried out in a spectral element solver capable of handling complex wall profiles. The friction factors have shown favorable agreement with the superpipe data, and the LES estimates of the Karman constant and additive constant of the log-law closely match values obtained from experiment.