Dynamic rupture simulation integrated with earthquake observations

Dynamic rupture simulations are unique in their contributions to the study of earthquake physics. The current rapid development of dynamic rupture simulations poses several new questions: Do the simulations reflect the real world? Do the simulations have predictive power? Which one should we believe when the simulations disagree? This thesis illustrates how integration with observations can help address these questions and reduce the effects of non-uniqueness of both dynamic rupture simulations and kinematic inversion problems. Dynamic rupture simulations with observational constraints can effectively identify non-physical features inferred from observations. Moreover, the integrative technique can also provide more physical insights into the mechanisms of earthquakes. This thesis demonstrates two examples of such kinds of integration: dynamic rupture simulations of the M_w 9.0 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and of earthquake ruptures in damaged fault zones:

(1) We develop simulations of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake based on a variety of observations and minimum assumptions of model parameters. The simulations provide realistic estimations of stress drop and fracture energy of the region and explain the physical mechanisms of high-frequency radiation in the deep region. We also find that the overridding subduction wedge contributes significantly to the up-dip rupture propagation and large final slip in the shallow region. Such findings are also applicable to other megathrust earthquakes.

(2) Damaged fault zones are usually found around natural faults, but their effects on earthquake ruptures have been largely unknown. We simulate earthquake ruptures in damaged fault zones with material properties constrained by seismic and geological observations. We show that reflected waves in fault zones are effective at generating pulse-like ruptures and head waves tend to accelerate and decelerate rupture speeds. These mechanisms are robust in natural fault zones with large attenuation and off-fault plasticity. Moreover, earthquakes in damaged fault zones can propagate at super-Rayleigh speeds that are unstable in homogeneous media. Supershear transitions in fault zones do not require large fault stresses. In the end, we present observations in the Big Bear region, where variability of rupture speeds of small earthquakes correlates with the laterally variable materials in a damaged fault zone.

Equilibrium in dynamic economic models

The main theme running through these three chapters is that economic agents are often forced to respond to events that are not a direct result of their actions or other agents actions. The optimal response to these shocks will necessarily depend on agents' understanding of how these shocks arise. The economic environment in the first two chapters is analogous to the classic chain store game. In this setting, the addition of unintended trembles by the agents creates an environment better suited to reputation building. The third chapter considers the competitive equilibrium price dynamics in an overlapping generations environment when there are supply and demand shocks.

The first chapter is a game theoretic investigation of a reputation building game. A sequential equilibrium model, called the "error prone agents" model, is developed. In this model, agents believe that all actions are potentially subjected to an error process. Inclusion of this belief into the equilibrium calculation provides for a richer class of reputation building possibilities than when perfect implementation is assumed.

In the second chapter, maximum likelihood estimation is employed to test the consistency of this new model and other models with data from experiments run by other researchers that served as the basis for prominent papers in this field. The alternate models considered are essentially modifications to the standard sequential equilibrium. While some models perform quite well in that the nature of the modification seems to explain deviations from the sequential equilibrium quite well, the degree to which these modifications must be applied shows no consistency across different experimental designs.

The third chapter is a study of price dynamics in an overlapping generations model. It establishes the existence of a unique perfect-foresight competitive equilibrium price path in a pure exchange economy with a finite time horizon when there are arbitrarily many shocks to supply or demand. One main reason for the interest in this equilibrium is that overlapping generations environments are very fruitful for the study of price dynamics, especially in experimental settings. The perfect foresight assumption is an important place to start when examining these environments because it will produce the ex post socially efficient allocation of goods. This characteristic makes this a natural baseline to which other models of price dynamics could be compared.

Topics in gravitational-wave science : macroscopic quantum mechanics and black hole physics

The theories of relativity and quantum mechanics, the two most important physics discoveries of the 20th century, not only revolutionized our understanding of the nature of space-time and the way matter exists and interacts, but also became the building blocks of what we currently know as modern physics. My thesis studies both subjects in great depths --- this intersection takes place in gravitational-wave physics.

Gravitational waves are "ripples of space-time", long predicted by general relativity. Although indirect evidence of gravitational waves has been discovered from observations of binary pulsars, direct detection of these waves is still actively being pursued. An international array of laser interferometer gravitational-wave detectors has been constructed in the past decade, and a first generation of these detectors has taken several years of data without a discovery. At this moment, these detectors are being upgraded into second-generation configurations, which will have ten times better sensitivity. Kilogram-scale test masses of these detectors, highly isolated from the environment, are probed continuously by photons. The sensitivity of such a quantum measurement can often be limited by the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle, and during such a measurement, the test masses can be viewed as evolving through a sequence of nearly pure quantum states.

The first part of this thesis (Chapter 2) concerns how to minimize the adverse effect of thermal fluctuations on the sensitivity of advanced gravitational detectors, thereby making them closer to being quantum-limited. My colleagues and I present a detailed analysis of coating thermal noise in advanced gravitational-wave detectors, which is the dominant noise source of Advanced LIGO in the middle of the detection frequency band. We identified the two elastic loss angles, clarified the different components of the coating Brownian noise, and obtained their cross spectral densities.

The second part of this thesis (Chapters 3-7) concerns formulating experimental concepts and analyzing experimental results that demonstrate the quantum mechanical behavior of macroscopic objects - as well as developing theoretical tools for analyzing quantum measurement processes. In Chapter 3, we study the open quantum dynamics of optomechanical experiments in which a single photon strongly influences the quantum state of a mechanical object. We also explain how to engineer the mechanical oscillator's quantum state by modifying the single photon's wave function.

In Chapters 4-5, we build theoretical tools for analyzing the so-called "non-Markovian" quantum measurement processes. Chapter 4 establishes a mathematical formalism that describes the evolution of a quantum system (the plant), which is coupled to a non-Markovian bath (i.e., one with a memory) while at the same time being under continuous quantum measurement (by the probe field). This aims at providing a general framework for analyzing a large class of non-Markovian measurement processes. Chapter 5 develops a way of characterizing the non-Markovianity of a bath (i.e.,whether and to what extent the bath remembers information about the plant) by perturbing the plant and watching for changes in the its subsequent evolution. Chapter 6 re-analyzes a recent measurement of a mechanical oscillator's zero-point fluctuations, revealing nontrivial correlation between the measurement device's sensing noise and the quantum rack-action noise.

Chapter 7 describes a model in which gravity is classical and matter motions are quantized, elaborating how the quantum motions of matter are affected by the fact that gravity is classical. It offers an experimentally plausible way to test this model (hence the nature of gravity) by measuring the center-of-mass motion of a macroscopic object.

The most promising gravitational waves for direct detection are those emitted from highly energetic astrophysical processes, sometimes involving black holes - a type of object predicted by general relativity whose properties depend highly on the strong-field regime of the theory. Although black holes have been inferred to exist at centers of galaxies and in certain so-called X-ray binary objects, detecting gravitational waves emitted by systems containing black holes will offer a much more direct way of observing black holes, providing unprecedented details of space-time geometry in the black-holes' strong-field region.

The third part of this thesis (Chapters 8-11) studies black-hole physics in connection with gravitational-wave detection.

Chapter 8 applies black hole perturbation theory to model the dynamics of a light compact object orbiting around a massive central Schwarzschild black hole. In this chapter, we present a Hamiltonian formalism in which the low-mass object and the metric perturbations of the background spacetime are jointly evolved. Chapter 9 uses WKB techniques to analyze oscillation modes (quasi-normal modes or QNMs) of spinning black holes. We obtain analytical approximations to the spectrum of the weakly-damped QNMs, with relative error O(1/L^2), and connect these frequencies to geometrical features of spherical photon orbits in Kerr spacetime. Chapter 11 focuses mainly on near-extremal Kerr black holes, we discuss a bifurcation in their QNM spectra for certain ranges of (l,m) (the angular quantum numbers) as a/M → 1. With tools prepared in Chapter 9 and 10, in Chapter 11 we obtain an analytical approximate for the scalar Green function in Kerr spacetime.

Frictional properties of faults : from observation on the Longitudinal Valley Fault, Taiwan, to dynamic simulations

Faults can slip either aseismically or through episodic seismic ruptures, but we still do not understand the factors which determine the partitioning between these two modes of slip. This challenge can now be addressed thanks to the dense set of geodetic and seismological networks that have been deployed in various areas with active tectonics. The data from such networks, as well as modern remote sensing techniques, indeed allow documenting of the spatial and temporal variability of slip mode and give some insight. This is the approach taken in this study, which is focused on the Longitudinal Valley Fault (LVF) in Eastern Taiwan. This fault is particularly appropriate since the very fast slip rate (about 5 cm/yr) is accommodated by both seismic and aseismic slip. Deformation of anthropogenic features shows that aseismic creep accounts for a significant fraction of fault slip near the surface, but this fault also released energy seismically, since it has produced five M_w>6.8 earthquakes in 1951 and 2003. Moreover, owing to the thrust component of slip, the fault zone is exhumed which allows investigation of deformation mechanisms. In order to put constraint on the factors that control the mode of slip, we apply a multidisciplinary approach that combines modeling of geodetic observations, structural analysis and numerical simulation of the "seismic cycle". Analyzing a dense set of geodetic and seismological data across the Longitudinal Valley, including campaign-mode GPS, continuous GPS (cGPS), leveling, accelerometric, and InSAR data, we document the partitioning between seismic and aseismic slip on the fault. For the time period 1992 to 2011, we found that about 80-90% of slip on the LVF in the 0-26 km seismogenic depth range is actually aseismic. The clay-rich Lichi M\'elange is identified as the key factor promoting creep at shallow depth. Microstructural investigations show that deformation within the fault zone must have resulted from a combination of frictional sliding at grain boundaries, cataclasis and pressure solution creep. Numerical modeling of earthquake sequences have been performed to investigate the possibility of reproducing the results from the kinematic inversion of geodetic and seismological data on the LVF. We first investigate the different modeling strategy that was developed to explore the role and relative importance of different factors on the manner in which slip accumulates on faults. We compare the results of quasi dynamic simulations and fully dynamic ones, and we conclude that ignoring the transient wave-mediated stress transfers would be inappropriate. We therefore carry on fully dynamic simulations and succeed in qualitatively reproducing the wide range of observations for the southern segment of the LVF. We conclude that the spatio-temporal evolution of fault slip on the Longitudinal Valley Fault over 1997-2011 is consistent to first order with prediction from a simple model in which a velocity-weakening patch is embedded in a velocity-strengthening area.

Programming chemical kinetics: engineering dynamic reaction networks with DNA strand displacement

Over the last century, the silicon revolution has enabled us to build faster, smaller and more sophisticated computers. Today, these computers control phones, cars, satellites, assembly lines, and other electromechanical devices. Just as electrical wiring controls electromechanical devices, living organisms employ "chemical wiring" to make decisions about their environment and control physical processes. Currently, the big difference between these two substrates is that while we have the abstractions, design principles, verification and fabrication techniques in place for programming with silicon, we have no comparable understanding or expertise for programming chemistry.

In this thesis we take a small step towards the goal of learning how to systematically engineer prescribed non-equilibrium dynamical behaviors in chemical systems. We use the formalism of chemical reaction networks (CRNs), combined with mass-action kinetics, as our programming language for specifying dynamical behaviors. Leveraging the tools of nucleic acid nanotechnology (introduced in Chapter 1), we employ synthetic DNA molecules as our molecular architecture and toehold-mediated DNA strand displacement as our reaction primitive.

Abstraction, modular design and systematic fabrication can work only with well-understood and quantitatively characterized tools. Therefore, we embark on a detailed study of the "device physics" of DNA strand displacement (Chapter 2). We present a unified view of strand displacement biophysics and kinetics by studying the process at multiple levels of detail, using an intuitive model of a random walk on a 1-dimensional energy landscape, a secondary structure kinetics model with single base-pair steps, and a coarse-grained molecular model that incorporates three-dimensional geometric and steric effects. Further, we experimentally investigate the thermodynamics of three-way branch migration. Our findings are consistent with previously measured or inferred rates for hybridization, fraying, and branch migration, and provide a biophysical explanation of strand displacement kinetics. Our work paves the way for accurate modeling of strand displacement cascades, which would facilitate the simulation and construction of more complex molecular systems.

In Chapters 3 and 4, we identify and overcome the crucial experimental challenges involved in using our general DNA-based technology for engineering dynamical behaviors in the test tube. In this process, we identify important design rules that inform our choice of molecular motifs and our algorithms for designing and verifying DNA sequences for our molecular implementation. We also develop flexible molecular strategies for "tuning" our reaction rates and stoichiometries in order to compensate for unavoidable non-idealities in the molecular implementation, such as imperfectly synthesized molecules and spurious "leak" pathways that compete with desired pathways.

We successfully implement three distinct autocatalytic reactions, which we then combine into a de novo chemical oscillator. Unlike biological networks, which use sophisticated evolved molecules (like proteins) to realize such behavior, our test tube realization is the first to demonstrate that Watson-Crick base pairing interactions alone suffice for oscillatory dynamics. Since our design pipeline is general and applicable to any CRN, our experimental demonstration of a de novo chemical oscillator could enable the systematic construction of CRNs with other dynamic behaviors.

A molecular dynamics study of the microscopic properties of simple dense fluids

The microscopic properties of a two-dimensional model dense fluid of Lennard-Jones disks have been studied using the so-called "molecular dynamics" method. Analyses of the computer-generated simulation data in terms of "conventional" thermodynamic and distribution functions verify the physical validity of the model and the simulation technique.

The radial distribution functions g(r) computed from the simulation data exhibit several subsidiary features rather similar to those appearing in some of the g(r) functions obtained by X-ray and thermal neutron diffraction measurements on real simple liquids. In the case of the model fluid, these "anomalous" features are thought to reflect the existence of two or more alternative configurations for local ordering.

Graphical display techniques have been used extensively to provide some intuitive insight into the various microscopic phenomena occurring in the model. For example, "snapshots" of the instantaneous system configurations for different times show that the "excess" area allotted to the fluid is collected into relatively large, irregular, and surprisingly persistent "holes". Plots of the particle trajectories over intervals of 2.0 to 6.0 x 10^-12 sec indicate that the mechanism for diffusion in the dense model fluid is "cooperative" in nature, and that extensive diffusive migration is generally restricted to groups of particles in the vicinity of a hole.

A quantitative analysis of diffusion in the model fluid shows that the cooperative mechanism is not inconsistent with the statistical predictions of existing theories of singlet, or self-diffusion in liquids. The relative diffusion of proximate particles is, however, found to be retarded by short-range dynamic correlations associated with the cooperative mechanism--a result of some importance from the standpoint of bimolecular reaction kinetics in solution.

A new, semi-empirical treatment for relative diffusion in liquids is developed, and is shown to reproduce the relative diffusion phenomena observed in the model fluid quite accurately. When incorporated into the standard Smoluchowski theory of diffusion-controlled reaction kinetics, the more exact treatment of relative diffusion is found to lower the predicted rate of reaction appreciably.

Finally, an entirely new approach to an understanding of the liquid state is suggested. Our experience in dealing with the simulation data--and especially, graphical displays of the simulation data--has led us to conclude that many of the more frustrating scientific problems involving the liquid state would be simplified considerably, were it possible to describe the microscopic structures characteristic of liquids in a concise and precise manner. To this end, we propose that the development of a formal language of partially-ordered structures be investigated.

A hybrid-parallel framework for the nonlinear seismic analysis of very tall buildings

FRAME3D, a program for the nonlinear seismic analysis of steel structures, has previously been used to study the collapse mechanisms of steel buildings up to 20 stories tall. The present thesis is inspired by the need to conduct similar analysis for much taller structures. It improves FRAME3D in two primary ways.

First, FRAME3D is revised to address specific nonlinear situations involving large displacement/rotation increments, the backup-subdivide algorithm, element failure, and extremely narrow joint hysteresis. The revisions result in superior convergence capabilities when modeling earthquake-induced collapse. The material model of a steel fiber is also modified to allow for post-rupture compressive strength.

Second, a parallel FRAME3D (PFRAME3D) is developed. The serial code is optimized and then parallelized. A distributed-memory divide-and-conquer approach is used for both the global direct solver and element-state updates. The result is an implicit finite-element hybrid-parallel program that takes advantage of the narrow-band nature of very tall buildings and uses nearest-neighbor-only communication patterns.

Using three structures of varied sized, PFRAME3D is shown to compute reproducible results that agree with that of the optimized 1-core version (displacement time-history response root-mean-squared errors are ~〖10〗^(-5) m) with much less wall time (e.g., a dynamic time-history collapse simulation of a 60-story building is computed in 5.69 hrs with 128 cores—a speedup of 14.7 vs. the optimized 1-core version). The maximum speedups attained are shown to increase with building height (as the total number of cores used also increases), and the parallel framework can be expected to be suitable for buildings taller than the ones presented here.

PFRAME3D is used to analyze a hypothetical 60-story steel moment-frame tube building (fundamental period of 6.16 sec) designed according to the 1994 Uniform Building Code. Dynamic pushover and time-history analyses are conducted. Multi-story shear-band collapse mechanisms are observed around mid-height of the building. The use of closely-spaced columns and deep beams is found to contribute to the building's “somewhat brittle” behavior (ductility ratio ~2.0). Overall building strength is observed to be sensitive to whether a model is fracture-capable.