Robot navigation in dense crowds : statistical models and experimental studies of human robot cooperation

This thesis explores the problem of mobile robot navigation in dense human crowds. We begin by considering a fundamental impediment to classical motion planning algorithms called the freezing robot problem: once the environment surpasses a certain level of complexity, the planner decides that all forward paths are unsafe, and the robot freezes in place (or performs unnecessary maneuvers) to avoid collisions. Since a feasible path typically exists, this behavior is suboptimal. Existing approaches have focused on reducing predictive uncertainty by employing higher fidelity individual dynamics models or heuristically limiting the individual predictive covariance to prevent overcautious navigation. We demonstrate that both the individual prediction and the individual predictive uncertainty have little to do with this undesirable navigation behavior. Additionally, we provide evidence that dynamic agents are able to navigate in dense crowds by engaging in joint collision avoidance, cooperatively making room to create feasible trajectories. We accordingly develop interacting Gaussian processes, a prediction density that captures cooperative collision avoidance, and a "multiple goal" extension that models the goal driven nature of human decision making. Navigation naturally emerges as a statistic of this distribution.

Most importantly, we empirically validate our models in the Chandler dining hall at Caltech during peak hours, and in the process, carry out the first extensive quantitative study of robot navigation in dense human crowds (collecting data on 488 runs). The multiple goal interacting Gaussian processes algorithm performs comparably with human teleoperators in crowd densities nearing 1 person/m², while a state of the art noncooperative planner exhibits unsafe behavior more than 3 times as often as the multiple goal extension, and twice as often as the basic interacting Gaussian process approach. Furthermore, a reactive planner based on the widely used dynamic window approach proves insufficient for crowd densities above 0.55 people/m². We also show that our noncooperative planner or our reactive planner capture the salient characteristics of nearly any dynamic navigation algorithm. For inclusive validation purposes, we show that either our non-interacting planner or our reactive planner captures the salient characteristics of nearly any existing dynamic navigation algorithm. Based on these experimental results and theoretical observations, we conclude that a cooperation model is critical for safe and efficient robot navigation in dense human crowds.

Finally, we produce a large database of ground truth pedestrian crowd data. We make this ground truth database publicly available for further scientific study of crowd prediction models, learning from demonstration algorithms, and human robot interaction models in general.

Design strategies for ultra-high efficiency photovoltaics

While concentrator photovoltaic cells have shown significant improvements in efficiency in the past ten years, once these cells are integrated into concentrating optics, connected to a power conditioning system and deployed in the field, the overall module efficiency drops to only 34 to 36%. This efficiency is impressive compared to conventional flat plate modules, but it is far short of the theoretical limits for solar energy conversion. Designing a system capable of achieving ultra high efficiency of 50% or greater cannot be achieved by refinement and iteration of current design approaches.

This thesis takes a systems approach to designing a photovoltaic system capable of 50% efficient performance using conventional diode-based solar cells. The effort began with an exploration of the limiting efficiency of spectrum splitting ensembles with 2 to 20 sub cells in different electrical configurations. Incorporating realistic non-ideal performance with the computationally simple detailed balance approach resulted in practical limits that are useful to identify specific cell performance requirements. This effort quantified the relative benefit of additional cells and concentration for system efficiency, which will help in designing practical optical systems.

Efforts to improve the quality of the solar cells themselves focused on the development of tunable lattice constant epitaxial templates. Initially intended to enable lattice matched multijunction solar cells, these templates would enable increased flexibility in band gap selection for spectrum splitting ensembles and enhanced radiative quality relative to metamorphic growth. The III-V material family is commonly used for multijunction solar cells both for its high radiative quality and for the ease of integrating multiple band gaps into one monolithic growth. The band gap flexibility is limited by the lattice constant of available growth templates. The virtual substrate consists of a thin III-V film with the desired lattice constant. The film is grown strained on an available wafer substrate, but the thickness is below the dislocation nucleation threshold. By removing the film from the growth substrate, allowing the strain to relax elastically, and bonding it to a supportive handle, a template with the desired lattice constant is formed. Experimental efforts towards this structure and initial proof of concept are presented.

Cells with high radiative quality present the opportunity to recover a large amount of their radiative losses if they are incorporated in an ensemble that couples emission from one cell to another. This effect is well known, but has been explored previously in the context of sub cells that independently operate at their maximum power point. This analysis explicitly accounts for the system interaction and identifies ways to enhance overall performance by operating some cells in an ensemble at voltages that reduce the power converted in the individual cell. Series connected multijunctions, which by their nature facilitate strong optical coupling between sub-cells, are reoptimized with substantial performance benefit.

Photovoltaic efficiency is usually measured relative to a standard incident spectrum to allow comparison between systems. Deployed in the field systems may differ in energy production due to sensitivity to changes in the spectrum. The series connection constraint in particular causes system efficiency to decrease as the incident spectrum deviates from the standard spectral composition. This thesis performs a case study comparing performance of systems over a year at a particular location to identify the energy production penalty caused by series connection relative to independent electrical connection.

The oculomotor system: (1) Vertical-horizontal interaction and signal recognition, (2) Time delays and power spectra

In the first section of this thesis, two-dimensional properties of the human eye movement control system were studied. The vertical - horizontal interaction was investigated by using a two-dimensional target motion consisting of a sinusoid in one of the directions vertical or horizontal, and low-pass filtered Gaussian random motion of variable bandwidth (and hence information content) in the orthogonal direction. It was found that the random motion reduced the efficiency of the sinusoidal tracking. However, the sinusoidal tracking was only slightly dependent on the bandwidth of the random motion. Thus the system should be thought of as consisting of two independent channels with a small amount of mutual cross-talk.

These target motions were then rotated to discover whether or not the system is capable of recognizing the two-component nature of the target motion. That is, the sinusoid was presented along an oblique line (neither vertical nor horizontal) with the random motion orthogonal to it. The system did not simply track the vertical and horizontal components of motion, but rotated its frame of reference so that its two tracking channels coincided with the directions of the two target motion components. This recognition occurred even when the two orthogonal motions were both random, but with different bandwidths.

In the second section, time delays, prediction and power spectra were examined. Time delays were calculated in response to various periodic signals, various bandwidths of narrow-band Gaussian random motions and sinusoids. It was demonstrated that prediction occurred only when the target motion was periodic, and only if the harmonic content was such that the signal was sufficiently narrow-band. It appears as if general periodic motions are split into predictive and non-predictive components.

For unpredictable motions, the relationship between the time delay and the average speed of the retinal image was linear. Based on this I proposed a model explaining the time delays for both random and periodic motions. My experiments did not prove that the system is sampled data, or that it is continuous. However, the model can be interpreted as representative of a sample data system whose sample interval is a function of the target motion.

It was shown that increasing the bandwidth of the low-pass filtered Gaussian random motion resulted in an increase of the eye movement bandwidth. Some properties of the eyeball-muscle dynamics and the extraocular muscle "active state tension" were derived.

Control mechanisms in the human binocular oculomotor system

A study of human eye movements was made in order to elucidate the nature of the control mechanism in the binocular oculomotor system.

We first examined spontaneous eye movements during monocular and binocular fixation in order to determine the corrective roles of flicks and drifts. It was found that both types of motion correct fixational errors, although flicks are somewhat more active in this respect. Vergence error is a stimulus for correction by drifts but not by flicks, while binocular vertical discrepancy of the visual axes does not trigger corrective movements.

Second, we investigated the non-linearities of the oculomotor system by examining the eye movement responses to point targets moving in two dimensions in a subjectively unpredictable manner. Such motions consisted of hand-limited Gaussian random motion and also of the sum of several non-integrally related sinusoids. We found that there is no direct relationship between the phase and the gain of the oculomotor system. Delay of eye movements relative to target motion is determined by the necessity of generating a minimum afferent (input) signal at the retina in order to trigger corrective eye movements. The amplitude of the response is a function of the biological constraints of the efferent (output) portion of the system: for target motions of narrow bandwidth, the system responds preferentially to the highest frequency; for large bandwidth motions, the system distributes the available energy equally over all frequencies. Third, the power spectra of spontaneous eye movements were compared with the spectra of tracking eye movements for Gaussian random target motions of varying bandwidths. It was found that there is essentially no difference among the various curves. The oculomotor system tracks a target, not by increasing the mean rate of impulses along the motoneurons of the extra-ocular muscles, but rather by coordinating those spontaneous impulses which propagate along the motoneurons during stationary fixation. Thus, the system operates at full output at all times.

Fourth, we examined the relative magnitude and phase of motions of the left and the right visual axes during monocular and binocular viewing. We found that the two visual axes move vertically in perfect synchronization at all frequencies for any viewing condition. This is not true for horizontal motions: the amount of vergence noise is highest for stationary fixation and diminishes for tracking tasks as the bandwidth of the target motion increases. Furthermore, movements of the occluded eye are larger than those of the seeing eye in monocular viewing. This effect is more pronounced for horizontal motions, for stationary fixation, and for lower frequencies.

Finally, we have related our findings to previously known facts about the pertinent nerve pathways in order to postulate a model for the neurological binocular control of the visual axes.

1. Ultrasonic studies of binary liquid structure in the critical region. Theory and experiment for the 2,6-lutidine/water system. 2. Hartree-Fock calculations of electric polarizabilities of some simple atoms and molecules, and their practicality. 3. Calculation of vibrational transition probabilities in collinear atom-diatom and diatom-diatom collisions with Lennard-Jones interaction

Part 1. Many interesting visual and mechanical phenomena occur in the critical region of fluids, both for the gas-liquid and liquid-liquid transitions. The precise thermodynamic and transport behavior here has some broad consequences for the molecular theory of liquids. Previous studies in this laboratory on a liquid-liquid critical mixture via ultrasonics supported a basically classical analysis of fluid behavior by M. Fixman (e. g., the free energy is assumed analytic in intensive variables in the thermodynamics)--at least when the fluid is not too close to critical. A breakdown in classical concepts is evidenced close to critical, in some well-defined ways. We have studied herein a liquid-liquid critical system of complementary nature (possessing a lower critical mixing or consolute temperature) to all previous mixtures, to look for new qualitative critical behavior. We did not find such new behavior in the ultrasonic absorption ascribable to the critical fluctuations, but we did find extra absorption due to chemical processes (yet these are related to the mixing behavior generating the lower consolute point). We rederived, corrected, and extended Fixman's analysis to interpret our experimental results in these more complex circumstances. The entire account of theory and experiment is prefaced by an extensive introduction recounting the general status of liquid state theory. The introduction provides a context for our present work, and also points out problems deserving attention. Interest in these problems was stimulated by this work but also by work in Part 3.

Part 2. Among variational theories of electronic structure, the Hartree-Fock theory has proved particularly valuable for a practical understanding of such properties as chemical binding, electric multipole moments, and X-ray scattering intensity. It also provides the most tractable method of calculating first-order properties under external or internal one-electron perturbations, either developed explicitly in orders of perturbation theory or in the fully self-consistent method. The accuracy and consistency of first-order properties are poorer than those of zero-order properties, but this is most often due to the use of explicit approximations in solving the perturbed equations, or to inadequacy of the variational basis in size or composition. We have calculated the electric polarizabilities of H₂, He, Li, Be, LiH, and N₂ by Hartree-Fock theory, using exact perturbation theory or the fully self-consistent method, as dictated by convenience. By careful studies on total basis set composition, we obtained good approximations to limiting Hartree-Fock values of polarizabilities with bases of reasonable size. The values for all species, and for each direction in the molecular cases, are within 8% of experiment, or of best theoretical values in the absence of the former. Our results support the use of unadorned Hartree-Pock theory for static polarizabilities needed in interpreting electron-molecule scattering data, collision-induced light scattering experiments, and other phenomena involving experimentally inaccessible polarizabilities.

Part 3. Numerical integration of the close-coupled scattering equations has been carried out to obtain vibrational transition probabilities for some models of the electronically adiabatic H₂-H₂ collision. All the models use a Lennard-Jones interaction potential between nearest atoms in the collision partners. We have analyzed the results for some insight into the vibrational excitation process in its dependence on the energy of collision, the nature of the vibrational binding potential, and other factors. We conclude also that replacement of earlier, simpler models of the interaction potential by the Lennard-Jones form adds very little realism for all the complication it introduces. A brief introduction precedes the presentation of our work and places it in the context of attempts to understand the collisional activation process in chemical reactions as well as some other chemical dynamics.