Sunyaev-Zel'dovich observations using large-format millimeter arrays

Galaxy clusters are the largest gravitationally bound objects in the observable universe, and they are formed from the largest perturbations of the primordial matter power spectrum. During initial cluster collapse, matter is accelerated to supersonic velocities, and the baryonic component is heated as it passes through accretion shocks. This process stabilizes when the pressure of the bound matter prevents further gravitational collapse. Galaxy clusters are useful cosmological probes, because their formation progressively freezes out at the epoch when dark energy begins to dominate the expansion and energy density of the universe. A diverse set of observables, from radio through X-ray wavelengths, are sourced from galaxy clusters, and this is useful for self-calibration. The distributions of these observables trace a cluster's dark matter halo, which represents more than 80% of the cluster's gravitational potential. One such observable is the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect (SZE), which results when the ionized intercluster medium blueshifts the cosmic microwave background via Compton scattering. Great technical advances in the last several decades have made regular observation of the SZE possible. Resolved SZE science, such as is explored in this analysis, has benefitted from the construction of large-format camera arrays consisting of highly sensitive millimeter-wave detectors, such as Bolocam. Bolocam is a submillimeter camera, sensitive to 140 GHz and 268 GHz radiation, located at one of the best observing sites in the world: the Caltech Submillimeter Observatory on Mauna Kea in Hawaii. Bolocam fielded 144 of the original spider web NTD bolometers used in an entire generation of ground-based, balloon-borne, and satellite-borne millimeter wave instrumention. Over approximately six years, our group at Caltech has developed a mature galaxy cluster observational program with Bolocam. This thesis describes the construction of the instrument's full cluster catalog: BOXSZ. Using this catalog, I have scaled the Bolocam SZE measurements with X-ray mass approximations in an effort to characterize the SZE signal as a viable mass probe for cosmology. This work has confirmed the SZE to be a low-scatter tracer of cluster mass. The analysis has also revealed how sensitive the SZE-mass scaling is to small biases in the adopted mass approximation. Future Bolocam analysis efforts are set on resolving these discrepancies by approximating cluster mass jointly with different observational probes.

Conserved quantities and the formation of black holes in the Brans-Dicke theory of gravitation

In Part I, we construct a symmetric stress-energy-momentum pseudo-tensor for the gravitational fields of Brans-Dicke theory, and use this to establish rigorously conserved integral expressions for energy-momentum Pⁱ and angular momentum J^ik. Application of the two-dimensional surface integrals to the exact static spherical vacuum solution of Brans leads to an identification of our conserved mass with the active gravitational mass. Application to the distant fields of an arbitrary stationary source reveals that Pⁱ and J^ik have the same physical interpretation as in general relativity. For gravitational waves whose wavelength is small on the scale of the background radius of curvature, averaging over several wavelengths in the Brill-Hartle-Isaacson manner produces a stress-energy-momentum tensor for gravitational radiation which may be used to calculate the changes in Pⁱ and J^ik of their source.

In Part II, we develop strong evidence in favor of a conjecture by Penrose--that, in the Brans-Dicke theory, relativistic gravitational collapse in three dimensions produce black holes identical to those of general relativity. After pointing out that any black hole solution of general relativity also satisfies Brans-Dicke theory, we establish the Schwarzschild and Kerr geometries as the only possible spherical and axially symmetric black hole exteriors, respectively. Also, we show that a Schwarzschild geometry is necessarily formed in the collapse of an uncharged sphere.

Appendices discuss relationships among relativistic gravity theories and an example of a theory in which black holes do not exist.

Topics in gravitational-wave science : macroscopic quantum mechanics and black hole physics

The theories of relativity and quantum mechanics, the two most important physics discoveries of the 20th century, not only revolutionized our understanding of the nature of space-time and the way matter exists and interacts, but also became the building blocks of what we currently know as modern physics. My thesis studies both subjects in great depths --- this intersection takes place in gravitational-wave physics.

Gravitational waves are "ripples of space-time", long predicted by general relativity. Although indirect evidence of gravitational waves has been discovered from observations of binary pulsars, direct detection of these waves is still actively being pursued. An international array of laser interferometer gravitational-wave detectors has been constructed in the past decade, and a first generation of these detectors has taken several years of data without a discovery. At this moment, these detectors are being upgraded into second-generation configurations, which will have ten times better sensitivity. Kilogram-scale test masses of these detectors, highly isolated from the environment, are probed continuously by photons. The sensitivity of such a quantum measurement can often be limited by the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle, and during such a measurement, the test masses can be viewed as evolving through a sequence of nearly pure quantum states.

The first part of this thesis (Chapter 2) concerns how to minimize the adverse effect of thermal fluctuations on the sensitivity of advanced gravitational detectors, thereby making them closer to being quantum-limited. My colleagues and I present a detailed analysis of coating thermal noise in advanced gravitational-wave detectors, which is the dominant noise source of Advanced LIGO in the middle of the detection frequency band. We identified the two elastic loss angles, clarified the different components of the coating Brownian noise, and obtained their cross spectral densities.

The second part of this thesis (Chapters 3-7) concerns formulating experimental concepts and analyzing experimental results that demonstrate the quantum mechanical behavior of macroscopic objects - as well as developing theoretical tools for analyzing quantum measurement processes. In Chapter 3, we study the open quantum dynamics of optomechanical experiments in which a single photon strongly influences the quantum state of a mechanical object. We also explain how to engineer the mechanical oscillator's quantum state by modifying the single photon's wave function.

In Chapters 4-5, we build theoretical tools for analyzing the so-called "non-Markovian" quantum measurement processes. Chapter 4 establishes a mathematical formalism that describes the evolution of a quantum system (the plant), which is coupled to a non-Markovian bath (i.e., one with a memory) while at the same time being under continuous quantum measurement (by the probe field). This aims at providing a general framework for analyzing a large class of non-Markovian measurement processes. Chapter 5 develops a way of characterizing the non-Markovianity of a bath (i.e.,whether and to what extent the bath remembers information about the plant) by perturbing the plant and watching for changes in the its subsequent evolution. Chapter 6 re-analyzes a recent measurement of a mechanical oscillator's zero-point fluctuations, revealing nontrivial correlation between the measurement device's sensing noise and the quantum rack-action noise.

Chapter 7 describes a model in which gravity is classical and matter motions are quantized, elaborating how the quantum motions of matter are affected by the fact that gravity is classical. It offers an experimentally plausible way to test this model (hence the nature of gravity) by measuring the center-of-mass motion of a macroscopic object.

The most promising gravitational waves for direct detection are those emitted from highly energetic astrophysical processes, sometimes involving black holes - a type of object predicted by general relativity whose properties depend highly on the strong-field regime of the theory. Although black holes have been inferred to exist at centers of galaxies and in certain so-called X-ray binary objects, detecting gravitational waves emitted by systems containing black holes will offer a much more direct way of observing black holes, providing unprecedented details of space-time geometry in the black-holes' strong-field region.

The third part of this thesis (Chapters 8-11) studies black-hole physics in connection with gravitational-wave detection.

Chapter 8 applies black hole perturbation theory to model the dynamics of a light compact object orbiting around a massive central Schwarzschild black hole. In this chapter, we present a Hamiltonian formalism in which the low-mass object and the metric perturbations of the background spacetime are jointly evolved. Chapter 9 uses WKB techniques to analyze oscillation modes (quasi-normal modes or QNMs) of spinning black holes. We obtain analytical approximations to the spectrum of the weakly-damped QNMs, with relative error O(1/L^2), and connect these frequencies to geometrical features of spherical photon orbits in Kerr spacetime. Chapter 11 focuses mainly on near-extremal Kerr black holes, we discuss a bifurcation in their QNM spectra for certain ranges of (l,m) (the angular quantum numbers) as a/M → 1. With tools prepared in Chapter 9 and 10, in Chapter 11 we obtain an analytical approximate for the scalar Green function in Kerr spacetime.

Nuclear weak interaction rates during stellar evolution and collapse

Nuclear weak interaction rates, including electron and positron emission rates, and continuum electron and positron capture rates , as well as the associated v and –/v energy loss rates are calculated on a detailed grid of temperature and density for the free nucleons and 226 nuclei with masses between A = 21 and 60. Gamow-Teller and Fermi discrete-state transition matrix element systematics and the Gamow-Teller T^< →/← T^> resonance transitions are discussed in depth and are implemented in the stellar rate calculations. Results of the calculations are presented on an abbreviated grid of temperature and density and comparison is made to terrestrial weak transition rates where possible. Neutron shell blocking of allowed electron capture on heavy nuclei during stellar core collapse is discussed along with several unblocking mechanisms operative at high temperature and density. The results of one-zone collapse calculations are presented which suggest that the effect of neutron shell blocking is to produce a larger core lepton fraction at neutrino trapping which leads to a larger inner-core mass and hence a stronger post-bounce shock.

A new ground motion intensity measure, peak filtered acceleration (PFA), to estimate collapse vulnerability of buildings in earthquakes

In this thesis, we develop an efficient collapse prediction model, the PFA (Peak Filtered Acceleration) model, for buildings subjected to different types of ground motions.

For the structural system, the PFA model covers modern steel and reinforced concrete moment-resisting frame buildings (potentially reinforced concrete shear wall buildings). For ground motions, the PFA model covers ramp-pulse-like ground motions, long-period ground motions, and short-period ground motions.

To predict whether a building will collapse in response to a given ground motion, we first extract long-period components from the ground motion using a Butterworth low-pass filter with suggested order and cutoff frequency. The order depends on the type of ground motion, and the cutoff frequency depends on the building’s natural frequency and ductility. We then compare the filtered acceleration time history with the capacity of the building. The capacity of the building is a constant for 2-dimentional buildings and a limit domain for 3-dimentional buildings. If the filtered acceleration exceeds the building’s capacity, the building is predicted to collapse. Otherwise, it is expected to survive the ground motion.

The parameters used in PFA model, which include fundamental period, global ductility and lateral capacity, can be obtained either from numerical analysis or interpolation based on the reference building system proposed in this thesis.

The PFA collapse prediction model greatly reduces computational complexity while archiving good accuracy. It is verified by FEM simulations of 13 frame building models and 150 ground motion records.

Based on the developed collapse prediction model, we propose to use PFA (Peak Filtered Acceleration) as a new ground motion intensity measure for collapse prediction. We compare PFA with traditional intensity measures PGA, PGV, PGD, and Sa in collapse prediction and find that PFA has the best performance among all the intensity measures.

We also provide a close form in term of a vector intensity measure (PGV, PGD) of the PFA collapse prediction model for practical collapse risk assessment.

Singularities and horizons in the collisions of gravitational waves

This thesis presents a study of the dynamical, nonlinear interaction of colliding gravitational waves, as described by classical general relativity. It is focused mainly on two fundamental questions: First, what is the general structure of the singularities and Killing-Cauchy horizons produced in the collisions of exactly plane-symmetric gravitational waves? Second, under what conditions will the collisions of almost-plane gravitational waves (waves with large but finite transverse sizes) produce singularities?

In the work on the collisions of exactly-plane waves, it is shown that Killing horizons in any plane-symmetric spacetime are unstable against small plane-symmetric perturbations. It is thus concluded that the Killing-Cauchy horizons produced by the collisions of some exactly plane gravitational waves are nongeneric, and that generic initial data for the colliding plane waves always produce "pure" spacetime singularities without such horizons. This conclusion is later proved rigorously (using the full nonlinear theory rather than perturbation theory), in connection with an analysis of the asymptotic singularity structure of a general colliding plane-wave spacetime. This analysis also proves that asymptotically the singularities created by colliding plane waves are of inhomogeneous-Kasner type; the asymptotic Kasner axes and exponents of these singularities in general depend on the spatial coordinate that runs tangentially to the singularity in the non-plane-symmetric direction.

In the work on collisions of almost-plane gravitational waves, first some general properties of single almost-plane gravitational-wave spacetimes are explored. It is shown that, by contrast with an exact plane wave, an almost-plane gravitational wave cannot have a propagation direction that is Killing; i.e., it must diffract and disperse as it propagates. It is also shown that an almost-plane wave cannot be precisely sandwiched between two null wavefronts; i.e., it must leave behind tails in the spacetime region through which it passes. Next, the occurrence of spacetime singularities in the collisions of almost-plane waves is investigated. It is proved that if two colliding, almost-plane gravitational waves are initially exactly plane-symmetric across a central region of sufficiently large but finite transverse dimensions, then their collision produces a spacetime singularity with the same local structure as in the exact-plane-wave collision. Finally, it is shown that a singularity still forms when the central regions are only approximately plane-symmetric initially. Stated more precisely, it is proved that if the colliding almost-plane waves are initially sufficiently close to being exactly plane-symmetric across a bounded central region of sufficiently large transverse dimensions, then their collision necessarily produces spacetime singularities. In this case, nothing is now known about the local and global structures of the singularities.

Experiments with a laser interferometric gravitational wave antenna

Sources and effects of astrophysical gravitational radiation are explained briefly to motivate discussion of the Caltech 40 meter antenna, which employs laser interferometry to monitor proper distances between inertial test masses. Practical considerations in construction of the apparatus are described. Redesign of test mass systems has resulted in a reduction of noise from internal mass vibrations by up to two orders of magnitude at some frequencies. A laser frequency stabilization system was developed which corrects the frequency of an argon ion laser to a residual fluctuation level bounded by the spectral density √s_v(f) ≤ 60µHz/√Hz, at fluctuation frequencies near 1.2 kHz. These and other improvements have contributed to reducing the spectral density of equivalent gravitational wave strain noise to √s_h(f)≈10^(-19)/√ Hz at these frequencies.

Finally, observations made with the antenna in February and March of 1987 are described. Kilohertz-band gravitational waves produced by the remnant of the recent supernova are shown to be theoretically unlikely at the strength required for confident detection in this antenna (then operating at poorer sensitivity than that quoted above). A search for periodic waves in the recorded data, comprising Fourier analysis of four 105-second samples of the antenna strain signal, was used to place new upper limits on periodic gravitational radiation at frequencies between 305 Hz and 5 kHz. In particular, continuous waves of any polarization are ruled out above strain amplitudes of 1.2 x 10^(-18) R.M.S. for waves emanating from the direction of the supernova, and 6.2 x 10^(-19) R.M.S. for waves emanating from the galactic center, between 1.5 and 4 kilohertz. Between 305 Hz and 5kHz no strains greater than 1.2 x 10^(-17) R.M.S. were detected from either direction. Limitations of the analysis and potential improvements are discussed, as are prospects for future searches.

Dynamical stability of nascent neutron stars

This thesis presents a study of the dynamical stability of nascent neutron stars resulting from the accretion induced collapse of rapidly rotating white dwarfs.

Chapter 2 and part of Chapter 3 study the equilibrium models for these neutron stars. They are constructed by assuming that the neutron stars have the same masses, angular momenta, and specific angular momentum distributions as the pre-collapse white dwarfs. If the pre-collapse white dwarf is rapidly rotating, the collapsed object will contain a high density central core of size about 20 km, surrounded by a massive accretion torus extending to hundreds of kilometers from the rotation axis. The ratio of the rotational kinetic energy to gravitational binding energy, β, of these neutron stars is all found to be less than 0.27.

Chapter 3 studies the dynamical stability of these neutron stars by numerically evolving the linearized hydrodynamical equations. A dynamical bar-mode instability is observed when the β of the star is greater than the critical value β_d ≈ 0.25. It is expected that the unstable mode will persist until a substantial amount of angular momentum is carried away by gravitational radiation. The detectability of these sources is studied and it is estimated that LIGO II is unlikely to detect them unless the event rate is greater than 10^-6/year/galaxy.

All the calculations on the structure and stability of the neutron stars in Chapters 2 and 3 are carried out using Newtonian hydrodynamics and gravity. Chapter 4 studies the relativistic effects on the structure of these neutron stars. New techniques are developed and used to construct neutron star models to the first post-Newtonian (1PN) order. The structures of the 1PN models are qualitatively similar to the corresponding Newtonian models, but the values of β are somewhat smaller. The maximum β for these 1PN neutron stars is found to be 0.24, which is 8% smaller than the Newtonian result (0.26). However, relativistic effects will also change the critical value β_d. A detailed post-Newtonian stability analysis has yet to be carried out to study the relativistic effects on the dynamical stability of these neutron stars.

The importance of spin for observing gravitational waves from coalescing compact binaries with LIGO and Virgo

General Relativity predicts the existence of gravitational waves, which carry information about the physical and dynamical properties of their source. One of the many promising sources of gravitational waves observable by ground-based instruments, such as in LIGO and Virgo, is the coalescence of two compact objects (neutron star or black hole). Black holes and neutron stars sometimes form binaries with short orbital periods, radiating so strongly in gravitational waves that they coalesce on astrophysically short timescales. General Relativity gives precise predictions for the form of the signal emitted by these systems. The most recent searches for theses events used waveform models that neglected the effects of black hole and neutron star spin. However, real astrophysical compact objects, especially black holes, are expected to have large spins. We demonstrate here a data analysis infrastructure which achieves an improved sensitivity to spinning compact binaries by the inclusion of spin effects in the template waveforms. This infrastructure is designed for scalable, low-latency data analysis, ideal for rapid electromagnetic followup of gravitational wave events.

The search for gravitational waves from the coalescence of black hole binary systems in data from the LIGO and Virgo detectors. Or: A dark walk through a random forest

The LIGO and Virgo gravitational-wave observatories are complex and extremely sensitive strain detectors that can be used to search for a wide variety of gravitational waves from astrophysical and cosmological sources. In this thesis, I motivate the search for the gravitational wave signals from coalescing black hole binary systems with total mass between 25 and 100 solar masses. The mechanisms for formation of such systems are not well-understood, and we do not have many observational constraints on the parameters that guide the formation scenarios. Detection of gravitational waves from such systems — or, in the absence of detection, the tightening of upper limits on the rate of such coalescences — will provide valuable information that can inform the astrophysics of the formation of these systems. I review the search for these systems and place upper limits on the rate of black hole binary coalescences with total mass between 25 and 100 solar masses. I then show how the sensitivity of this search can be improved by up to 40% by the the application of the multivariate statistical classifier known as a random forest of bagged decision trees to more effectively discriminate between signal and non-Gaussian instrumental noise. I also discuss the use of this classifier in the search for the ringdown signal from the merger of two black holes with total mass between 50 and 450 solar masses and present upper limits. I also apply multivariate statistical classifiers to the problem of quantifying the non-Gaussianity of LIGO data. Despite these improvements, no gravitational-wave signals have been detected in LIGO data so far. However, the use of multivariate statistical classification can significantly improve the sensitivity of the Advanced LIGO detectors to such signals.

Simulation of shock-induced bubble collapse with application to vascular injury in shockwave lithotripsy

Shockwave lithotripsy is a noninvasive medical procedure wherein shockwaves are repeatedly focused at the location of kidney stones in order to pulverize them. Stone comminution is thought to be the product of two mechanisms: the propagation of stress waves within the stone and cavitation erosion. However, the latter mechanism has also been implicated in vascular injury. In the present work, shock-induced bubble collapse is studied in order to understand the role that it might play in inducing vascular injury. A high-order accurate, shock- and interface-capturing numerical scheme is developed to simulate the three-dimensional collapse of the bubble in both the free-field and inside a vessel phantom. The primary contributions of the numerical study are the characterization of the shock-bubble and shock-bubble-vessel interactions across a large parameter space that includes clinical shockwave lithotripsy pressure amplitudes, problem geometry and tissue viscoelasticity, and the subsequent correlation of these interactions to vascular injury. Specifically, measurements of the vessel wall pressures and displacements, as well as the finite strains in the fluid surrounding the bubble, are utilized with available experiments in tissue to evaluate damage potential. Estimates are made of the smallest injurious bubbles in the microvasculature during both the collapse and jetting phases of the bubble's life cycle. The present results suggest that bubbles larger than 1 μm in diameter could rupture blood vessels under clinical SWL conditions.

The Mechanical Genome in Regulation and Infection

Biological information storage and retrieval is a dynamic process that requires the genome to undergo dramatic structural rearrangements. Recent advances in single-molecule techniques have allowed precise quantification of the nano-mechanical properties of DNA [1, 2], and direct in vivo observation of molecules in action [3]. In this work, we will examine elasticity in protein-mediated DNA looping, whose structural rearrangement is essential for transcriptional regulation in both prokaryotes and eukaryotes. We will look at hydrodynamics in the process of viral DNA ejection, which mediates information transfer and exchange and has prominent implications in evolution. As in the case of Kepler's laws of planetary motion leading to Newton's gravitational theory, and the allometric scaling laws in biology revealing the organizing principles of complex networks [4], experimental data collapse in these biological phenomena has guided much of our studies and urged us to find the underlying physical principles.

Quantifying Earthquake Collapse Risk of Tall Steel Braced Frame Buildings Using Rupture-to-Rafters Simulations

This thesis examines collapse risk of tall steel braced frame buildings using rupture-to-rafters simulations due to suite of San Andreas earthquakes. Two key advancements in this work are the development of (i) a rational methodology for assigning scenario earthquake probabilities and (ii) an artificial correction-free approach to broadband ground motion simulation. The work can be divided into the following sections: earthquake source modeling, earthquake probability calculations, ground motion simulations, building response, and performance analysis.

As a first step the kinematic source inversions of past earthquakes in the magnitude range of 6-8 are used to simulate 60 scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. For each scenario earthquake a 30-year occurrence probability is calculated and we present a rational method to redistribute the forecast earthquake probabilities from UCERF to the simulated scenario earthquake. We illustrate the inner workings of the method through an example involving earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in southern California.

Next, three-component broadband ground motion histories are computed at 636 sites in the greater Los Angeles metropolitan area by superposing short-period (0.2~s-2.0~s) empirical Green's function synthetics on top of long-period ($>$ 2.0~s) spectral element synthetics. We superimpose these seismograms on low-frequency seismograms, computed from kinematic source models using the spectral element method, to produce broadband seismograms.

Using the ground motions at 636 sites for the 60 scenario earthquakes, 3-D nonlinear analysis of several variants of an 18-story steel braced frame building, designed for three soil types using the 1994 and 1997 Uniform Building Code provisions and subjected to these ground motions, are conducted. Model performance is classified into one of five performance levels: Immediate Occupancy, Life Safety, Collapse Prevention, Red-Tagged, and Model Collapse. The results are combined with the 30-year probability of occurrence of the San Andreas scenario earthquakes using the PEER performance based earthquake engineering framework to determine the probability of exceedance of these limit states over the next 30 years.

Gauge Invariant Spectral Cauchy Characteristic Extraction of Gravitational Waves in Computational General Relativity

We present a complete system for Spectral Cauchy characteristic extraction (Spectral CCE). Implemented in C++ within the Spectral Einstein Code (SpEC), the method employs numerous innovative algorithms to efficiently calculate the Bondi strain, news, and flux.

Spectral CCE was envisioned to ensure physically accurate gravitational wave-forms computed for the Laser Interferometer Gravitational wave Observatory (LIGO) and similar experiments, while working toward a template bank with more than a thousand waveforms to span the binary black hole (BBH) problem’s seven-dimensional parameter space.

The Bondi strain, news, and flux are physical quantities central to efforts to understand and detect astrophysical gravitational wave sources within the Simulations of eXtreme Spacetime (SXS) collaboration, with the ultimate aim of providing the first strong field probe of the Einstein field equation.

In a series of included papers, we demonstrate stability, convergence, and gauge invariance. We also demonstrate agreement between Spectral CCE and the legacy Pitt null code, while achieving a factor of 200 improvement in computational efficiency.

Spectral CCE represents a significant computational advance. It is the foundation upon which further capability will be built, specifically enabling the complete calculation of junk-free, gauge-free, and physically valid waveform data on the fly within SpEC.

Quantifying Earthquake Collapse Risk of Tall Steel Moment Frame Buildings Using Rupture-to-Rafters Simulations

There is a sparse number of credible source models available from large-magnitude past earthquakes. A stochastic source model generation algorithm thus becomes necessary for robust risk quantification using scenario earthquakes. We present an algorithm that combines the physics of fault ruptures as imaged in laboratory earthquakes with stress estimates on the fault constrained by field observations to generate stochastic source models for large-magnitude (Mw 6.0-8.0) strike-slip earthquakes. The algorithm is validated through a statistical comparison of synthetic ground motion histories from a stochastically generated source model for a magnitude 7.90 earthquake and a kinematic finite-source inversion of an equivalent magnitude past earthquake on a geometrically similar fault. The synthetic dataset comprises of three-component ground motion waveforms, computed at 636 sites in southern California, for ten hypothetical rupture scenarios (five hypocenters, each with two rupture directions) on the southern San Andreas fault. A similar validation exercise is conducted for a magnitude 6.0 earthquake, the lower magnitude limit for the algorithm. Additionally, ground motions from the Mw7.9 earthquake simulations are compared against predictions by the Campbell-Bozorgnia NGA relation as well as the ShakeOut scenario earthquake. The algorithm is then applied to generate fifty source models for a hypothetical magnitude 7.9 earthquake originating at Parkfield, with rupture propagating from north to south (towards Wrightwood), similar to the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake. Using the spectral element method, three-component ground motion waveforms are computed in the Los Angeles basin for each scenario earthquake and the sensitivity of ground shaking intensity to seismic source parameters (such as the percentage of asperity area relative to the fault area, rupture speed, and risetime) is studied.

Under plausible San Andreas fault earthquakes in the next 30 years, modeled using the stochastic source algorithm, the performance of two 18-story steel moment frame buildings (UBC 1982 and 1997 designs) in southern California is quantified. The approach integrates rupture-to-rafters simulations into the PEER performance based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework. Using stochastic sources and computational seismic wave propagation, three-component ground motion histories at 636 sites in southern California are generated for sixty scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. The ruptures, with moment magnitudes in the range of 6.0-8.0, are assumed to occur at five locations on the southern section of the fault. Two unilateral rupture propagation directions are considered. The 30-year probabilities of all plausible ruptures in this magnitude range and in that section of the fault, as forecast by the United States Geological Survey, are distributed among these 60 earthquakes based on proximity and moment release. The response of the two 18-story buildings hypothetically located at each of the 636 sites under 3-component shaking from all 60 events is computed using 3-D nonlinear time-history analysis. Using these results, the probability of the structural response exceeding Immediate Occupancy (IO), Life-Safety (LS), and Collapse Prevention (CP) performance levels under San Andreas fault earthquakes over the next thirty years is evaluated.

Furthermore, the conditional and marginal probability distributions of peak ground velocity (PGV) and displacement (PGD) in Los Angeles and surrounding basins due to earthquakes occurring primarily on the mid-section of southern San Andreas fault are determined using Bayesian model class identification. Simulated ground motions at sites within 55-75km from the source from a suite of 60 earthquakes (Mw 6.0 − 8.0) primarily rupturing mid-section of San Andreas fault are considered for PGV and PGD data.