Determination of source finiteness and depth of large earthquakes

In this thesis, a method to retrieve the source finiteness, depth of faulting, and the mechanisms of large earthquakes from long-period surface waves is developed and applied to several recent large events.

In Chapter 1, source finiteness parameters of eleven large earthquakes were determined from long-period Rayleigh waves recorded at IDA and GDSN stations. The basic data set is the seismic spectra of periods from 150 to 300 sec. Two simple models of source finiteness are studied. The first model is a point source with finite duration. In the determination of the duration or source-process times, we used Furumoto's phase method and a linear inversion method, in which we simultaneously inverted the spectra and determined the source-process time that minimizes the error in the inversion. These two methods yielded consistent results. The second model is the finite fault model. Source finiteness of large shallow earthquakes with rupture on a fault plane with a large aspect ratio was modeled with the source-finiteness function introduced by Ben-Menahem. The spectra were inverted to find the extent and direction of the rupture of the earthquake that minimize the error in the inversion. This method is applied to the 1977 Sumbawa, Indonesia, 1979 Colombia-Ecuador, 1983 Akita-Oki, Japan, 1985 Valparaiso, Chile, and 1985 Michoacan, Mexico earthquakes. The method yielded results consistent with the rupture extent inferred from the aftershock area of these earthquakes.

In Chapter 2, the depths and source mechanisms of nine large shallow earthquakes were determined. We inverted the data set of complex source spectra for a moment tensor (linear) or a double couple (nonlinear). By solving a least-squares problem, we obtained the centroid depth or the extent of the distributed source for each earthquake. The depths and source mechanisms of large shallow earthquakes determined from long-period Rayleigh waves depend on the models of source finiteness, wave propagation, and the excitation. We tested various models of the source finiteness, Q, the group velocity, and the excitation in the determination of earthquake depths.

The depth estimates obtained using the Q model of Dziewonski and Steim (1982) and the excitation functions computed for the average ocean model of Regan and Anderson (1984) are considered most reasonable. Dziewonski and Steim's Q model represents a good global average of Q determined over a period range of the Rayleigh waves used in this study. Since most of the earthquakes studied here occurred in subduction zones Regan and Anderson's average ocean model is considered most appropriate.

Our depth estimates are in general consistent with the Harvard CMT solutions. The centroid depths and their 90 % confidence intervals (numbers in the parentheses) determined by the Student's t test are: Colombia-Ecuador earthquake (12 December 1979), d = 11 km, (9, 24) km; Santa Cruz Is. earthquake (17 July 1980), d = 36 km, (18, 46) km; Samoa earthquake (1 September 1981), d = 15 km, (9, 26) km; Playa Azul, Mexico earthquake (25 October 1981), d = 41 km, (28, 49) km; El Salvador earthquake (19 June 1982), d = 49 km, (41, 55) km; New Ireland earthquake (18 March 1983), d = 75 km, (72, 79) km; Chagos Bank earthquake (30 November 1983), d = 31 km, (16, 41) km; Valparaiso, Chile earthquake (3 March 1985), d = 44 km, (15, 54) km; Michoacan, Mexico earthquake (19 September 1985), d = 24 km, (12, 34) km.

In Chapter 3, the vertical extent of faulting of the 1983 Akita-Oki, and 1977 Sumbawa, Indonesia earthquakes are determined from fundamental and overtone Rayleigh waves. Using fundamental Rayleigh waves, the depths are determined from the moment tensor inversion and fault inversion. The observed overtone Rayleigh waves are compared to the synthetic overtone seismograms to estimate the depth of faulting of these earthquakes. The depths obtained from overtone Rayleigh waves are consistent with the depths determined from fundamental Rayleigh waves for the two earthquakes. Appendix B gives the observed seismograms of fundamental and overtone Rayleigh waves for eleven large earthquakes.

Earthquakes of the Nepal Himalaya : towards a physical model of the seismic cycle

Home to hundreds of millions of souls and land of excessiveness, the Himalaya is also the locus of a unique seismicity whose scope and peculiarities still remain to this day somewhat mysterious. Having claimed the lives of kings, or turned ancient timeworn cities into heaps of rubbles and ruins, earthquakes eerily inhabit Nepalese folk tales with the fatalistic message that nothing lasts forever. From a scientific point of view as much as from a human perspective, solving the mysteries of Himalayan seismicity thus represents a challenge of prime importance. Documenting geodetic strain across the Nepal Himalaya with various GPS and leveling data, we show that unlike other subduction zones that exhibit a heterogeneous and patchy coupling pattern along strike, the last hundred kilometers of the Main Himalayan Thrust fault, or MHT, appear to be uniformly locked, devoid of any of the “creeping barriers” that traditionally ward off the propagation of large events. The approximately 20 mm/yr of reckoned convergence across the Himalaya matching previously established estimates of the secular deformation at the front of the arc, the slip accumulated at depth has to somehow elastically propagate all the way to the surface at some point. And yet, neither large events from the past nor currently recorded microseismicity nearly compensate for the massive moment deficit that quietly builds up under the giant mountains. Along with this large unbalanced moment deficit, the uncommonly homogeneous coupling pattern on the MHT raises the question of whether or not the locked portion of the MHT can rupture all at once in a giant earthquake. Univocally answering this question appears contingent on the still elusive estimate of the magnitude of the largest possible earthquake in the Himalaya, and requires tight constraints on local fault properties. What makes the Himalaya enigmatic also makes it the potential source of an incredible wealth of information, and we exploit some of the oddities of Himalayan seismicity in an effort to improve the understanding of earthquake physics and cipher out the properties of the MHT. Thanks to the Himalaya, the Indo-Gangetic plain is deluged each year under a tremendous amount of water during the annual summer monsoon that collects and bears down on the Indian plate enough to pull it away from the Eurasian plate slightly, temporarily relieving a small portion of the stress mounting on the MHT. As the rainwater evaporates in the dry winter season, the plate rebounds and tension is increased back on the fault. Interestingly, the mild waggle of stress induced by the monsoon rains is about the same size as that from solid-Earth tides which gently tug at the planets solid layers, but whereas changes in earthquake frequency correspond with the annually occurring monsoon, there is no such correlation with Earth tides, which oscillate back-and-forth twice a day. We therefore investigate the general response of the creeping and seismogenic parts of MHT to periodic stresses in order to link these observations to physical parameters. First, the response of the creeping part of the MHT is analyzed with a simple spring-and-slider system bearing rate-strengthening rheology, and we show that at the transition with the locked zone, where the friction becomes near velocity neutral, the response of the slip rate may be amplified at some periods, which values are analytically related to the physical parameters of the problem. Such predictions therefore hold the potential of constraining fault properties on the MHT, but still await observational counterparts to be applied, as nothing indicates that the variations of seismicity rate on the locked part of the MHT are the direct expressions of variations of the slip rate on its creeping part, and no variations of the slip rate have been singled out from the GPS measurements to this day. When shifting to the locked seismogenic part of the MHT, spring-and-slider models with rate-weakening rheology are insufficient to explain the contrasted responses of the seismicity to the periodic loads that tides and monsoon both place on the MHT. Instead, we resort to numerical simulations using the Boundary Integral CYCLes of Earthquakes algorithm and examine the response of a 2D finite fault embedded with a rate-weakening patch to harmonic stress perturbations of various periods. We show that such simulations are able to reproduce results consistent with a gradual amplification of sensitivity as the perturbing period get larger, up to a critical period corresponding to the characteristic time of evolution of the seismicity in response to a step-like perturbation of stress. This increase of sensitivity was not reproduced by simple 1D-spring-slider systems, probably because of the complexity of the nucleation process, reproduced only by 2D-fault models. When the nucleation zone is close to its critical unstable size, its growth becomes highly sensitive to any external perturbations and the timings of produced events may therefore find themselves highly affected. A fully analytical framework has yet to be developed and further work is needed to fully describe the behavior of the fault in terms of physical parameters, which will likely provide the keys to deduce constitutive properties of the MHT from seismological observations.

Frictional properties of faults : from observation on the Longitudinal Valley Fault, Taiwan, to dynamic simulations

Faults can slip either aseismically or through episodic seismic ruptures, but we still do not understand the factors which determine the partitioning between these two modes of slip. This challenge can now be addressed thanks to the dense set of geodetic and seismological networks that have been deployed in various areas with active tectonics. The data from such networks, as well as modern remote sensing techniques, indeed allow documenting of the spatial and temporal variability of slip mode and give some insight. This is the approach taken in this study, which is focused on the Longitudinal Valley Fault (LVF) in Eastern Taiwan. This fault is particularly appropriate since the very fast slip rate (about 5 cm/yr) is accommodated by both seismic and aseismic slip. Deformation of anthropogenic features shows that aseismic creep accounts for a significant fraction of fault slip near the surface, but this fault also released energy seismically, since it has produced five M_w>6.8 earthquakes in 1951 and 2003. Moreover, owing to the thrust component of slip, the fault zone is exhumed which allows investigation of deformation mechanisms. In order to put constraint on the factors that control the mode of slip, we apply a multidisciplinary approach that combines modeling of geodetic observations, structural analysis and numerical simulation of the "seismic cycle". Analyzing a dense set of geodetic and seismological data across the Longitudinal Valley, including campaign-mode GPS, continuous GPS (cGPS), leveling, accelerometric, and InSAR data, we document the partitioning between seismic and aseismic slip on the fault. For the time period 1992 to 2011, we found that about 80-90% of slip on the LVF in the 0-26 km seismogenic depth range is actually aseismic. The clay-rich Lichi M\'elange is identified as the key factor promoting creep at shallow depth. Microstructural investigations show that deformation within the fault zone must have resulted from a combination of frictional sliding at grain boundaries, cataclasis and pressure solution creep. Numerical modeling of earthquake sequences have been performed to investigate the possibility of reproducing the results from the kinematic inversion of geodetic and seismological data on the LVF. We first investigate the different modeling strategy that was developed to explore the role and relative importance of different factors on the manner in which slip accumulates on faults. We compare the results of quasi dynamic simulations and fully dynamic ones, and we conclude that ignoring the transient wave-mediated stress transfers would be inappropriate. We therefore carry on fully dynamic simulations and succeed in qualitatively reproducing the wide range of observations for the southern segment of the LVF. We conclude that the spatio-temporal evolution of fault slip on the Longitudinal Valley Fault over 1997-2011 is consistent to first order with prediction from a simple model in which a velocity-weakening patch is embedded in a velocity-strengthening area.