Random propagation in complex systems : nonlinear matrix recursions and epidemic spread

This dissertation studies long-term behavior of random Riccati recursions and mathematical epidemic model. Riccati recursions are derived from Kalman filtering. The error covariance matrix of Kalman filtering satisfies Riccati recursions. Convergence condition of time-invariant Riccati recursions are well-studied by researchers. We focus on time-varying case, and assume that regressor matrix is random and identical and independently distributed according to given distribution whose probability distribution function is continuous, supported on whole space, and decaying faster than any polynomial. We study the geometric convergence of the probability distribution. We also study the global dynamics of the epidemic spread over complex networks for various models. For instance, in the discrete-time Markov chain model, each node is either healthy or infected at any given time. In this setting, the number of the state increases exponentially as the size of the network increases. The Markov chain has a unique stationary distribution where all the nodes are healthy with probability 1. Since the probability distribution of Markov chain defined on finite state converges to the stationary distribution, this Markov chain model concludes that epidemic disease dies out after long enough time. To analyze the Markov chain model, we study nonlinear epidemic model whose state at any given time is the vector obtained from the marginal probability of infection of each node in the network at that time. Convergence to the origin in the epidemic map implies the extinction of epidemics. The nonlinear model is upper-bounded by linearizing the model at the origin. As a result, the origin is the globally stable unique fixed point of the nonlinear model if the linear upper bound is stable. The nonlinear model has a second fixed point when the linear upper bound is unstable. We work on stability analysis of the second fixed point for both discrete-time and continuous-time models. Returning back to the Markov chain model, we claim that the stability of linear upper bound for nonlinear model is strongly related with the extinction time of the Markov chain. We show that stable linear upper bound is sufficient condition of fast extinction and the probability of survival is bounded by nonlinear epidemic map.

Formal methods for control synthesis in partially observed environments : application to autonomous robotic manipulation

Modern robots are increasingly expected to function in uncertain and dynamically challenging environments, often in proximity with humans. In addition, wide scale adoption of robots requires on-the-fly adaptability of software for diverse application. These requirements strongly suggest the need to adopt formal representations of high level goals and safety specifications, especially as temporal logic formulas. This approach allows for the use of formal verification techniques for controller synthesis that can give guarantees for safety and performance. Robots operating in unstructured environments also face limited sensing capability. Correctly inferring a robot's progress toward high level goal can be challenging.

This thesis develops new algorithms for synthesizing discrete controllers in partially known environments under specifications represented as linear temporal logic (LTL) formulas. It is inspired by recent developments in finite abstraction techniques for hybrid systems and motion planning problems. The robot and its environment is assumed to have a finite abstraction as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP), which is a powerful model class capable of representing a wide variety of problems. However, synthesizing controllers that satisfy LTL goals over POMDPs is a challenging problem which has received only limited attention.

This thesis proposes tractable, approximate algorithms for the control synthesis problem using Finite State Controllers (FSCs). The use of FSCs to control finite POMDPs allows for the closed system to be analyzed as finite global Markov chain. The thesis explicitly shows how transient and steady state behavior of the global Markov chains can be related to two different criteria with respect to satisfaction of LTL formulas. First, the maximization of the probability of LTL satisfaction is related to an optimization problem over a parametrization of the FSC. Analytic computation of gradients are derived which allows the use of first order optimization techniques.

The second criterion encourages rapid and frequent visits to a restricted set of states over infinite executions. It is formulated as a constrained optimization problem with a discounted long term reward objective by the novel utilization of a fundamental equation for Markov chains - the Poisson equation. A new constrained policy iteration technique is proposed to solve the resulting dynamic program, which also provides a way to escape local maxima.

The algorithms proposed in the thesis are applied to the task planning and execution challenges faced during the DARPA Autonomous Robotic Manipulation - Software challenge.

Information-theoretic Studies and Capacity Bounds: Group Network Codes and Energy Harvesting Communication Systems

Network information theory and channels with memory are two important but difficult frontiers of information theory. In this two-parted dissertation, we study these two areas, each comprising one part. For the first area we study the so-called entropy vectors via finite group theory, and the network codes constructed from finite groups. In particular, we identify the smallest finite group that violates the Ingleton inequality, an inequality respected by all linear network codes, but not satisfied by all entropy vectors. Based on the analysis of this group we generalize it to several families of Ingleton-violating groups, which may be used to design good network codes. Regarding that aspect, we study the network codes constructed with finite groups, and especially show that linear network codes are embedded in the group network codes constructed with these Ingleton-violating families. Furthermore, such codes are strictly more powerful than linear network codes, as they are able to violate the Ingleton inequality while linear network codes cannot. For the second area, we study the impact of memory to the channel capacity through a novel communication system: the energy harvesting channel. Different from traditional communication systems, the transmitter of an energy harvesting channel is powered by an exogenous energy harvesting device and a finite-sized battery. As a consequence, each time the system can only transmit a symbol whose energy consumption is no more than the energy currently available. This new type of power supply introduces an unprecedented input constraint for the channel, which is random, instantaneous, and has memory. Furthermore, naturally, the energy harvesting process is observed causally at the transmitter, but no such information is provided to the receiver. Both of these features pose great challenges for the analysis of the channel capacity. In this work we use techniques from channels with side information, and finite state channels, to obtain lower and upper bounds of the energy harvesting channel. In particular, we study the stationarity and ergodicity conditions of a surrogate channel to compute and optimize the achievable rates for the original channel. In addition, for practical code design of the system we study the pairwise error probabilities of the input sequences.

Experimental and finite element studies of a large arch dam

Forced vibration field tests and finite element studies have been conducted on Morrow Point (arch) Dam in order to investigate dynamic dam-water interaction and water compressibility. Design of the data acquisition system incorporates several special features to retrieve both amplitude and phase of the response in a low signal to noise environment. These features contributed to the success of the experimental program which, for the first time, produced field evidence of water compressibility; this effect seems to play a significant role only in the symmetric response of Morrow Point Dam in the frequency range examined. In the accompanying analysis, frequency response curves for measured accelerations and water pressures as well as their resonating shapes are compared to predictions from the current state-of-the-art finite element model for which water compressibility is both included and neglected. Calibration of the numerical model employs the antisymmetric response data since they are only slightly affected by water compressibility, and, after calibration, good agreement to the data is obtained whether or not water compressibility is included. In the effort to reproduce the symmetric response data, on which water compressibility has a significant influence, the calibrated model shows better correlation when water compressibility is included, but the agreement is still inadequate. Similar results occur using data obtained previously by others at a low water level. A successful isolation of the fundamental water resonance from the experimental data shows significantly different features from those of the numerical water model, indicating possible inaccuracy in the assumed geometry and/or boundary conditions for the reservoir. However, the investigation does suggest possible directions in which the numerical model can be improved.

The Equation of State and Petrogenesis of Komatiite

(1) Equation of State of Komatiite

The equation of state (EOS) of a molten komatiite (27 wt% MgO) was detennined in the 5 to 36 GPa pressure range via shock wave compression from 1550°C and 0 bar. Shock wave velocity, U_S, and particle velocity, U_P, in km/s follow the linear relationship U_S = 3.13(±0.03) + 1.47(±0.03) U_P. Based on a calculated density at 1550°C, 0 bar of 2.745±0.005 glee, this U_S-U_P relationship gives the isentropic bulk modulus K_S = 27.0 ± 0.6 GPa, and its first and second isentropic pressure derivatives, K'_S = 4.9 ± 0.1 and K"_S = -0.109 ± 0.003 GPa^-1.

The calculated liquidus compression curve agrees within error with the static compression results of Agee and Walker [1988a] to 6 GPa. We detennine that olivine (FO₉₄) will be neutrally buoyant in komatiitic melt of the composition we studied near 8.2 GPa. Clinopyroxene would also be neutrally buoyant near this pressure. Liquidus garnet-majorite may be less dense than this komatiitic liquid in the 20-24 GPa interval, however pyropic-garnet and perovskite phases are denser than this komatiitic liquid in their respective liquidus pressure intervals to 36 GPa. Liquidus perovskite may be neutrally buoyant near 70 GPa.

At 40 GPa, the density of shock-compressed molten komatiite would be approximately equal to the calculated density of an equivalent mixture of dense solid oxide components. This observation supports the model of Rigden et al. [1989] for compressibilities of liquid oxide components. Using their theoretical EOS for liquid forsterite and fayalite, we calculate the densities of a spectrum of melts from basaltic through peridotitic that are related to the experimentally studied komatiitic liquid by addition or subtraction of olivine. At low pressure, olivine fractionation lowers the density of basic magmas, but above 14 GPa this trend is reversed. All of these basic to ultrabasic liquids are predicted to have similar densities at 14 GPa, and this density is approximately equal to the bulk (PREM) mantle. This suggests that melts derived from a peridotitic mantle may be inhibited from ascending from depths greater than 400 km.

The EOS of ultrabasic magmas was used to model adiabatic melting in a peridotitic mantle. If komatiites are formed by >15% partial melting of a peridotitic mantle, then komatiites generated by adiabatic melting come from source regions in the lower transition zone (≈500-670 km) or the lower mantle (>670 km). The great depth of incipient melting implied by this model, and the melt density constraint mentioned above, suggest that komatiitic volcanism may be gravitationally hindered. Although komatiitic magmas are thought to separate from their coexisting crystals at a temperature =200°C greater than that for modern MORBs, their ultimate sources are predicted to be diapirs that, if adiabatically decompressed from initially solid mantle, were more than 700°C hotter than the sources of MORBs and derived from great depth.

We considered the evolution of an initially molten mantle, i.e., a magma ocean. Our model considers the thermal structure of the magma ocean, density constraints on crystal segregation, and approximate phase relationships for a nominally chondritic mantle. Crystallization will begin at the core-mantle boundary. Perovskite buoyancy at > 70 GPa may lead to a compositionally stratified lower mantle with iron-enriched mangesiowiistite content increasing with depth. The upper mantle may be depleted in perovskite components. Olivine neutral buoyancy may lead to the formation of a dunite septum in the upper mantle, partitioning the ocean into upper and lower reservoirs, but this septum must be permeable.

(2) Viscosity Measurement with Shock Waves

We have examined in detail the analytical method for measuring shear viscosity from the decay of perturbations on a corrugated shock front The relevance of initial conditions, finite shock amplitude, bulk viscosity, and the sensitivity of the measurements to the shock boundary conditions are discussed. The validity of the viscous perturbation approach is examined by numerically solving the second-order Navier-Stokes equations. These numerical experiments indicate that shock instabilities may occur even when the Kontorovich-D'yakov stability criteria are satisfied. The experimental results for water at 15 GPa are discussed, and it is suggested that the large effective viscosity determined by this method may reflect the existence of ice VII on the Rayleigh path of the Hugoniot This interpretation reconciles the experimental results with estimates and measurements obtained by other means, and is consistent with the relationship of the Hugoniot with the phase diagram for water. Sound waves are generated at 4.8 MHz at in the water experiments at 15 GPa. The existence of anelastic absorption modes near this frequency would also lead to large effective viscosity estimates.

(3) Equation of State of Molybdenum at 1400°C

Shock compression data to 96 GPa for pure molybdenum, initially heated to 1400°C, are presented. Finite strain analysis of the data gives a bulk modulus at 1400°C, K'_S. of 244±2 GPa and its pressure derivative, K'_OS of 4. A fit of shock velocity to particle velocity gives the coefficients of U_S = C_O+S U_P to be C_O = 4.77±0.06 km/s and S = 1.43±0.05. From the zero pressure sound speed, C_O, a bulk modulus of 232±6 GPa is calculated that is consistent with extrapolation of ultrasonic elasticity measurements. The temperature derivative of the bulk modulus at zero pressure, θK_OSθT|_P, is approximately -0.012 GPa/K. A thermodynamic model is used to show that the thermodynamic Grüneisen parameter is proportional to the density and independent of temperature. The Mie-Grüneisen equation of state adequately describes the high temperature behavior of molybdenum under the present range of shock loading conditions.