The strategic behavior of rational novices

There is a growing amount of experimental evidence that suggests people often deviate from the predictions of game theory. Some scholars attempt to explain the observations by introducing errors into behavioral models. However, most of these modifications are situation dependent and do not generalize. A new theory, called the rational novice model, is introduced as an attempt to provide a general theory that takes account of erroneous behavior. The rational novice model is based on two central principals. The first is that people systematically make inaccurate guesses when they are evaluating their options in a game-like situation. The second is that people treat their decisions similar to a portfolio problem. As a result, non optimal actions in a game theoretic sense may be included in the rational novice strategy profile with positive weights.

The rational novice model can be divided into two parts: the behavioral model and the equilibrium concept. In a theoretical chapter, the mathematics of the behavioral model and the equilibrium concept are introduced. The existence of the equilibrium is established. In addition, the Nash equilibrium is shown to be a special case of the rational novice equilibrium. In another chapter, the rational novice model is applied to a voluntary contribution game. Numerical methods were used to obtain the solution. The model is estimated with data obtained from the Palfrey and Prisbrey experimental study of the voluntary contribution game. It is found that the rational novice model explains the data better than the Nash model. Although a formal statistical test was not used, pseudo R^2 analysis indicates that the rational novice model is better than a Probit model similar to the one used in the Palfrey and Prisbrey study.

The rational novice model is also applied to a first price sealed bid auction. Again, computing techniques were used to obtain a numerical solution. The data obtained from the Chen and Plott study were used to estimate the model. The rational novice model outperforms the CRRAM, the primary Nash model studied in the Chen and Plott study. However, the rational novice model is not the best amongst all models. A sophisticated rule-of-thumb, called the SOPAM, offers the best explanation of the data.

Lock Acquisition and Sensitivity Analysis of Advanced LIGO Interferometers

Laser interferometer gravitational wave observatory (LIGO) consists of two complex large-scale laser interferometers designed for direct detection of gravitational waves from distant astrophysical sources in the frequency range 10Hz - 5kHz. Direct detection of space-time ripples will support Einstein's general theory of relativity and provide invaluable information and new insight into physics of the Universe.

Initial phase of LIGO started in 2002, and since then data was collected during six science runs. Instrument sensitivity was improving from run to run due to the effort of commissioning team. Initial LIGO has reached designed sensitivity during the last science run, which ended in October 2010.

In parallel with commissioning and data analysis with the initial detector, LIGO group worked on research and development of the next generation detectors. Major instrument upgrade from initial to advanced LIGO started in 2010 and lasted till 2014.

This thesis describes results of commissioning work done at LIGO Livingston site from 2013 until 2015 in parallel with and after the installation of the instrument. This thesis also discusses new techniques and tools developed at the 40m prototype including adaptive filtering, estimation of quantization noise in digital filters and design of isolation kits for ground seismometers.

The first part of this thesis is devoted to the description of methods for bringing interferometer to the linear regime when collection of data becomes possible. States of longitudinal and angular controls of interferometer degrees of freedom during lock acquisition process and in low noise configuration are discussed in details.

Once interferometer is locked and transitioned to low noise regime, instrument produces astrophysics data that should be calibrated to units of meters or strain. The second part of this thesis describes online calibration technique set up in both observatories to monitor the quality of the collected data in real time. Sensitivity analysis was done to understand and eliminate noise sources of the instrument.

Coupling of noise sources to gravitational wave channel can be reduced if robust feedforward and optimal feedback control loops are implemented. The last part of this thesis describes static and adaptive feedforward noise cancellation techniques applied to Advanced LIGO interferometers and tested at the 40m prototype. Applications of optimal time domain feedback control techniques and estimators to aLIGO control loops are also discussed.

Commissioning work is still ongoing at the sites. First science run of advanced LIGO is planned for September 2015 and will last for 3-4 months. This run will be followed by a set of small instrument upgrades that will be installed on a time scale of few months. Second science run will start in spring 2016 and last for about 6 months. Since current sensitivity of advanced LIGO is already more than factor of 3 higher compared to initial detectors and keeps improving on a monthly basis, upcoming science runs have a good chance for the first direct detection of gravitational waves.

Distributed Optimal Control of Cyber-Physical Systems: Controller Synthesis, Architecture Design and System Identification

The centralized paradigm of a single controller and a single plant upon which modern control theory is built is no longer applicable to modern cyber-physical systems of interest, such as the power-grid, software defined networks or automated highways systems, as these are all large-scale and spatially distributed. Both the scale and the distributed nature of these systems has motivated the decentralization of control schemes into local sub-controllers that measure, exchange and act on locally available subsets of the globally available system information. This decentralization of control logic leads to different decision makers acting on asymmetric information sets, introduces the need for coordination between them, and perhaps not surprisingly makes the resulting optimal control problem much harder to solve. In fact, shortly after such questions were posed, it was realized that seemingly simple decentralized optimal control problems are computationally intractable to solve, with the Wistenhausen counterexample being a famous instance of this phenomenon. Spurred on by this perhaps discouraging result, a concerted 40 year effort to identify tractable classes of distributed optimal control problems culminated in the notion of quadratic invariance, which loosely states that if sub-controllers can exchange information with each other at least as quickly as the effect of their control actions propagates through the plant, then the resulting distributed optimal control problem admits a convex formulation.

The identification of quadratic invariance as an appropriate means of "convexifying" distributed optimal control problems led to a renewed enthusiasm in the controller synthesis community, resulting in a rich set of results over the past decade. The contributions of this thesis can be seen as being a part of this broader family of results, with a particular focus on closing the gap between theory and practice by relaxing or removing assumptions made in the traditional distributed optimal control framework. Our contributions are to the foundational theory of distributed optimal control, and fall under three broad categories, namely controller synthesis, architecture design and system identification.

We begin by providing two novel controller synthesis algorithms. The first is a solution to the distributed H-infinity optimal control problem subject to delay constraints, and provides the only known exact characterization of delay-constrained distributed controllers satisfying an H-infinity norm bound. The second is an explicit dynamic programming solution to a two player LQR state-feedback problem with varying delays. Accommodating varying delays represents an important first step in combining distributed optimal control theory with the area of Networked Control Systems that considers lossy channels in the feedback loop. Our next set of results are concerned with controller architecture design. When designing controllers for large-scale systems, the architectural aspects of the controller such as the placement of actuators, sensors, and the communication links between them can no longer be taken as given -- indeed the task of designing this architecture is now as important as the design of the control laws themselves. To address this task, we formulate the Regularization for Design (RFD) framework, which is a unifying computationally tractable approach, based on the model matching framework and atomic norm regularization, for the simultaneous co-design of a structured optimal controller and the architecture needed to implement it. Our final result is a contribution to distributed system identification. Traditional system identification techniques such as subspace identification are not computationally scalable, and destroy rather than leverage any a priori information about the system's interconnection structure. We argue that in the context of system identification, an essential building block of any scalable algorithm is the ability to estimate local dynamics within a large interconnected system. To that end we propose a promising heuristic for identifying the dynamics of a subsystem that is still connected to a large system. We exploit the fact that the transfer function of the local dynamics is low-order, but full-rank, while the transfer function of the global dynamics is high-order, but low-rank, to formulate this separation task as a nuclear norm minimization problem. Finally, we conclude with a brief discussion of future research directions, with a particular emphasis on how to incorporate the results of this thesis, and those of optimal control theory in general, into a broader theory of dynamics, control and optimization in layered architectures.