Financial equilibrium, voting procedures, and coalition structures in allocational mechanisms

This thesis is comprised of three chapters, each of which is concerned with properties of allocational mechanisms which include voting procedures as part of their operation. The theme of interaction between economic and political forces recurs in the three chapters, as described below.

Chapter One demonstrates existence of a non-controlling interest shareholders' equilibrium for a stylized one-period stock market economy with fewer securities than states of the world. The economy has two decision mechanisms: Owners vote to change firms' production plans across states, fixing shareholdings; and individuals trade shares and the current production / consumption good, fixing production plans. A shareholders' equilibrium is a production plan profile, and a shares / current good allocation stable for both mechanisms. In equilibrium, no (Kramer direction-restricted) plan revision is supported by a share-weighted majority, and there exists no Pareto superior reallocation.

Chapter Two addresses efficient management of stationary-site, fixed-budget, partisan voter registration drives. Sufficient conditions obtain for unique optimal registrar deployment within contested districts. Each census tract is assigned an expected net plurality return to registration investment index, computed from estimates of registration, partisanship, and turnout. Optimum registration intensity is a logarithmic transformation of a tract's index. These conditions are tested using a merged data set including both census variables and Los Angeles County Registrar data from several 1984 Assembly registration drives. Marginal registration spending benefits, registrar compensation, and the general campaign problem are also discussed.

The last chapter considers social decision procedures at a higher level of abstraction. Chapter Three analyzes the structure of decisive coalition families, given a quasitransitive-valued social decision procedure satisfying the universal domain and ITA axioms. By identifying those alternatives X* ⊆ X on which the Pareto principle fails, imposition in the social ranking is characterized. Every coaliton is weakly decisive for X* over X~X*, and weakly antidecisive for X~X* over X*; therefore, alternatives in X~X* are never socially ranked above X*. Repeated filtering of alternatives causing Pareto failure shows states in X^n*~X^((n+1))* are never socially ranked above X^((n+1))*. Limiting results of iterated application of the *-operator are also discussed.

Disorder driven transitions in non-equilibrium quantum systems

This thesis presents studies of the role of disorder in non-equilibrium quantum systems. The quantum states relevant to dynamics in these systems are very different from the ground state of the Hamiltonian. Two distinct systems are studied, (i) periodically driven Hamiltonians in two dimensions, and (ii) electrons in a one-dimensional lattice with power-law decaying hopping amplitudes. In the first system, the novel phases that are induced from the interplay of periodic driving, topology and disorder are studied. In the second system, the Anderson transition in all the eigenstates of the Hamiltonian are studied, as a function of the power-law exponent of the hopping amplitude.

In periodically driven systems the study focuses on the effect of disorder in the nature of the topology of the steady states. First, we investigate the robustness to disorder of Floquet topological insulators (FTIs) occurring in semiconductor quantum wells. Such FTIs are generated by resonantly driving a transition between the valence and conduction band. We show that when disorder is added, the topological nature of such FTIs persists as long as there is a gap at the resonant quasienergy. For strong enough disorder, this gap closes and all the states become localized as the system undergoes a transition to a trivial insulator.

Interestingly, the effects of disorder are not necessarily adverse, disorder can also induce a transition from a trivial to a topological system, thereby establishing a Floquet Topological Anderson Insulator (FTAI). Such a state would be a dynamical realization of the topological Anderson insulator. We identify the conditions on the driving field necessary for observing such a transition. We realize such a disorder induced topological Floquet spectrum in the driven honeycomb lattice and quantum well models.

Finally, we show that two-dimensional periodically driven quantum systems with spatial disorder admit a unique topological phase, which we call the anomalous Floquet-Anderson insulator (AFAI). The AFAI is characterized by a quasienergy spectrum featuring chiral edge modes coexisting with a fully localized bulk. Such a spectrum is impossible for a time-independent, local Hamiltonian. These unique characteristics of the AFAI give rise to a new topologically protected nonequilibrium transport phenomenon: quantized, yet nonadiabatic, charge pumping. We identify the topological invariants that distinguish the AFAI from a trivial, fully localized phase, and show that the two phases are separated by a phase transition.

The thesis also present the study of disordered systems using Wegner's Flow equations. The Flow Equation Method was proposed as a technique for studying excited states in an interacting system in one dimension. We apply this method to a one-dimensional tight binding problem with power-law decaying hoppings. This model presents a transition as a function of the exponent of the decay. It is shown that the the entire phase diagram, i.e. the delocalized, critical and localized phases in these systems can be studied using this technique. Based on this technique, we develop a strong-bond renormalization group that procedure where we solve the Flow Equations iteratively. This renormalization group approach provides a new framework to study the transition in this system.

The stochastic exit problem for dynamical systems

The problem of "exit against a flow" for dynamical systems subject to small Gaussian white noise excitation is studied. Here the word "flow" refers to the behavior in phase space of the unperturbed system's state variables. "Exit against a flow" occurs if a perturbation causes the phase point to leave a phase space region within which it would normally be confined. In particular, there are two components of the problem of exit against a flow:

i) the mean exit time

ii) the phase-space distribution of exit locations.

When the noise perturbing the dynamical systems is small, the solution of each component of the problem of exit against a flow is, in general, the solution of a singularly perturbed, degenerate elliptic-parabolic boundary value problem.

Singular perturbation techniques are used to express the asymptotic solution in terms of an unknown parameter. The unknown parameter is determined using the solution of the adjoint boundary value problem.

The problem of exit against a flow for several dynamical systems of physical interest is considered, and the mean exit times and distributions of exit positions are calculated. The systems are then simulated numerically, using Monte Carlo techniques, in order to determine the validity of the asymptotic solutions.

Some modified bifurcation problems with application to imperfection sensitivity in buckling

The branching theory of solutions of certain nonlinear elliptic partial differential equations is developed, when the nonlinear term is perturbed from unforced to forced. We find families of branching points and the associated nonisolated solutions which emanate from a bifurcation point of the unforced problem. Nontrivial solution branches are constructed which contain the nonisolated solutions, and the branching is exhibited. An iteration procedure is used to establish the existence of these solutions, and a formal perturbation theory is shown to give asymptotically valid results. The stability of the solutions is examined and certain solution branches are shown to consist of minimal positive solutions. Other solution branches which do not contain branching points are also found in a neighborhood of the bifurcation point.

The qualitative features of branching points and their associated nonisolated solutions are used to obtain useful information about buckling of columns and arches. Global stability characteristics for the buckled equilibrium states of imperfect columns and arches are discussed. Asymptotic expansions for the imperfection sensitive buckling load of a column on a nonlinearly elastic foundation are found and rigorously justified.

Some problems in nonlinear elasticity

Two separate problems are discussed: axisymmetric equilibrium configurations of a circular membrane under pressure and subject to thrust along its edge, and the buckling of a circular cylindrical shell.

An ordinary differential equation governing the circular membrane is imbedded in a family of n-dimensional nonlinear equations. Phase plane methods are used to examine the number of solutions corresponding to a parameter which generalizes the thrust, as well as other parameters determining the shape of the nonlinearity and the undeformed shape of the membrane. It is found that in any number of dimensions there exists a value of the generalized thrust for which a countable infinity of solutions exist if some of the remaining parameters are made sufficiently large. Criteria describing the number of solutions in other cases are also given.

Donnell-type equations are used to model a circular cylindrical shell. The static problem of bifurcation of buckled modes from Poisson expansion is analyzed using an iteration scheme and pertubation methods. Analysis shows that although buckling loads are usually simple eigenvalues, they may have arbitrarily large but finite multiplicity when the ratio of the shell's length and circumference is rational. A numerical study of the critical buckling load for simple eigenvalues indicates that the number of waves along the axis of the deformed shell is roughly proportional to the length of the shell, suggesting the possibility of a "characteristic length." Further numerical work indicates that initial post-buckling curves are typically steep, although the load may increase or decrease. It is shown that either a sheet of solutions or two distinct branches bifurcate from a double eigenvalue. Furthermore, a shell may be subject to a uniform torque, even though one is not prescribed at the ends of the shell, through the interaction of two modes with the same number of circumferential waves. Finally, multiple time scale techniques are used to study the dynamic buckling of a rectangular plate as well as a circular cylindrical shell; transition to a new steady state amplitude determined by the nonlinearity is shown. The importance of damping in determining equilibrium configurations independent of initial conditions is illustrated.

A singularly perturbed linear two-point boundary-value problem

We consider the following singularly perturbed linear two-point boundary-value problem:

Ly(x) ≡ Ω(ε)D_xy(x) - A(x,ε)y(x) = f(x,ε) 0≤x≤1 (1a)

By ≡ L(ε)y(0) + R(ε)y(1) = g(ε) ε → 0^+ (1b)

Here Ω(ε) is a diagonal matrix whose first m diagonal elements are 1 and last m elements are ε. Aside from reasonable continuity conditions placed on A, L, R, f, g, we assume the lower right mxm principle submatrix of A has no eigenvalues whose real part is zero. Under these assumptions a constructive technique is used to derive sufficient conditions for the existence of a unique solution of (1). These sufficient conditions are used to define when (1) is a regular problem. It is then shown that as ε → 0^+ the solution of a regular problem exists and converges on every closed subinterval of (0,1) to a solution of the reduced problem. The reduced problem consists of the differential equation obtained by formally setting ε equal to zero in (1a) and initial conditions obtained from the boundary conditions (1b). Several examples of regular problems are also considered.

A similar technique is used to derive the properties of the solution of a particular difference scheme used to approximate (1). Under restrictions on the boundary conditions (1b) it is shown that for the stepsize much larger than ε the solution of the difference scheme, when applied to a regular problem, accurately represents the solution of the reduced problem.

Furthermore, the existence of a similarity transformation which block diagonalizes a matrix is presented as well as exponential bounds on certain fundamental solution matrices associated with the problem (1).

Markets and microstructure

This document contains three papers examining the microstructure of financial interaction in development and market settings. I first examine the industrial organization of financial exchanges, specifically limit order markets. In this section, I perform a case study of Google stock surrounding a surprising earnings announcement in the 3rd quarter of 2009, uncovering parameters that describe information flows and liquidity provision. I then explore the disbursement process for community-driven development projects. This section is game theoretic in nature, using a novel three-player ultimatum structure. I finally develop econometric tools to simulate equilibrium and identify equilibrium models in limit order markets.

In chapter two, I estimate an equilibrium model using limit order data, finding parameters that describe information and liquidity preferences for trading. As a case study, I estimate the model for Google stock surrounding an unexpected good-news earnings announcement in the 3rd quarter of 2009. I find a substantial decrease in asymmetric information prior to the earnings announcement. I also simulate counterfactual dealer markets and find empirical evidence that limit order markets perform more efficiently than do their dealer market counterparts.

In chapter three, I examine Community-Driven Development. Community-Driven Development is considered a tool empowering communities to develop their own aid projects. While evidence has been mixed as to the effectiveness of CDD in achieving disbursement to intended beneficiaries, the literature maintains that local elites generally take control of most programs. I present a three player ultimatum game which describes a potential decentralized aid procurement process. Players successively split a dollar in aid money, and the final player--the targeted community member--decides between whistle blowing or not. Despite the elite capture present in my model, I find conditions under which money reaches targeted recipients. My results describe a perverse possibility in the decentralized aid process which could make detection of elite capture more difficult than previously considered. These processes may reconcile recent empirical work claiming effectiveness of the decentralized aid process with case studies which claim otherwise.

In chapter four, I develop in more depth the empirical and computational means to estimate model parameters in the case study in chapter two. I describe the liquidity supplier problem and equilibrium among those suppliers. I then outline the analytical forms for computing certainty-equivalent utilities for the informed trader. Following this, I describe a recursive algorithm which facilitates computing equilibrium in supply curves. Finally, I outline implementation of the Method of Simulated Moments in this context, focusing on Indirect Inference and formulating the pseudo model.

The strategic behavior of rational novices

There is a growing amount of experimental evidence that suggests people often deviate from the predictions of game theory. Some scholars attempt to explain the observations by introducing errors into behavioral models. However, most of these modifications are situation dependent and do not generalize. A new theory, called the rational novice model, is introduced as an attempt to provide a general theory that takes account of erroneous behavior. The rational novice model is based on two central principals. The first is that people systematically make inaccurate guesses when they are evaluating their options in a game-like situation. The second is that people treat their decisions similar to a portfolio problem. As a result, non optimal actions in a game theoretic sense may be included in the rational novice strategy profile with positive weights.

The rational novice model can be divided into two parts: the behavioral model and the equilibrium concept. In a theoretical chapter, the mathematics of the behavioral model and the equilibrium concept are introduced. The existence of the equilibrium is established. In addition, the Nash equilibrium is shown to be a special case of the rational novice equilibrium. In another chapter, the rational novice model is applied to a voluntary contribution game. Numerical methods were used to obtain the solution. The model is estimated with data obtained from the Palfrey and Prisbrey experimental study of the voluntary contribution game. It is found that the rational novice model explains the data better than the Nash model. Although a formal statistical test was not used, pseudo R^2 analysis indicates that the rational novice model is better than a Probit model similar to the one used in the Palfrey and Prisbrey study.

The rational novice model is also applied to a first price sealed bid auction. Again, computing techniques were used to obtain a numerical solution. The data obtained from the Chen and Plott study were used to estimate the model. The rational novice model outperforms the CRRAM, the primary Nash model studied in the Chen and Plott study. However, the rational novice model is not the best amongst all models. A sophisticated rule-of-thumb, called the SOPAM, offers the best explanation of the data.

Equilibrium in dynamic economic models

The main theme running through these three chapters is that economic agents are often forced to respond to events that are not a direct result of their actions or other agents actions. The optimal response to these shocks will necessarily depend on agents' understanding of how these shocks arise. The economic environment in the first two chapters is analogous to the classic chain store game. In this setting, the addition of unintended trembles by the agents creates an environment better suited to reputation building. The third chapter considers the competitive equilibrium price dynamics in an overlapping generations environment when there are supply and demand shocks.

The first chapter is a game theoretic investigation of a reputation building game. A sequential equilibrium model, called the "error prone agents" model, is developed. In this model, agents believe that all actions are potentially subjected to an error process. Inclusion of this belief into the equilibrium calculation provides for a richer class of reputation building possibilities than when perfect implementation is assumed.

In the second chapter, maximum likelihood estimation is employed to test the consistency of this new model and other models with data from experiments run by other researchers that served as the basis for prominent papers in this field. The alternate models considered are essentially modifications to the standard sequential equilibrium. While some models perform quite well in that the nature of the modification seems to explain deviations from the sequential equilibrium quite well, the degree to which these modifications must be applied shows no consistency across different experimental designs.

The third chapter is a study of price dynamics in an overlapping generations model. It establishes the existence of a unique perfect-foresight competitive equilibrium price path in a pure exchange economy with a finite time horizon when there are arbitrarily many shocks to supply or demand. One main reason for the interest in this equilibrium is that overlapping generations environments are very fruitful for the study of price dynamics, especially in experimental settings. The perfect foresight assumption is an important place to start when examining these environments because it will produce the ex post socially efficient allocation of goods. This characteristic makes this a natural baseline to which other models of price dynamics could be compared.

Essays on economics networks

This thesis belongs to the growing field of economic networks. In particular, we develop three essays in which we study the problem of bargaining, discrete choice representation, and pricing in the context of networked markets. Despite analyzing very different problems, the three essays share the common feature of making use of a network representation to describe the market of interest.

In Chapter 1 we present an analysis of bargaining in networked markets. We make two contributions. First, we characterize market equilibria in a bargaining model, and find that players' equilibrium payoffs coincide with their degree of centrality in the network, as measured by Bonacich's centrality measure. This characterization allows us to map, in a simple way, network structures into market equilibrium outcomes, so that payoffs dispersion in networked markets is driven by players' network positions. Second, we show that the market equilibrium for our model converges to the so called eigenvector centrality measure. We show that the economic condition for reaching convergence is that the players' discount factor goes to one. In particular, we show how the discount factor, the matching technology, and the network structure interact in a very particular way in order to see the eigenvector centrality as the limiting case of our market equilibrium.

We point out that the eigenvector approach is a way of finding the most central or relevant players in terms of the “global” structure of the network, and to pay less attention to patterns that are more “local”. Mathematically, the eigenvector centrality captures the relevance of players in the bargaining process, using the eigenvector associated to the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix of a given network. Thus our result may be viewed as an economic justification of the eigenvector approach in the context of bargaining in networked markets.

As an application, we analyze the special case of seller-buyer networks, showing how our framework may be useful for analyzing price dispersion as a function of sellers and buyers' network positions.

Finally, in Chapter 3 we study the problem of price competition and free entry in networked markets subject to congestion effects. In many environments, such as communication networks in which network flows are allocated, or transportation networks in which traffic is directed through the underlying road architecture, congestion plays an important role. In particular, we consider a network with multiple origins and a common destination node, where each link is owned by a firm that sets prices in order to maximize profits, whereas users want to minimize the total cost they face, which is given by the congestion cost plus the prices set by firms. In this environment, we introduce the notion of Markovian traffic equilibrium to establish the existence and uniqueness of a pure strategy price equilibrium, without assuming that the demand functions are concave nor imposing particular functional forms for the latency functions. We derive explicit conditions to guarantee existence and uniqueness of equilibria. Given this existence and uniqueness result, we apply our framework to study entry decisions and welfare, and establish that in congested markets with free entry, the number of firms exceeds the social optimum.

Application of microwave diagnostics to copper chloride and carbon dioxide lasers

Part A

A problem restricting the development of the CuCl laser has been the decrease in output power with increases of tube temperature above 400°C. At that temperature the CuCl vapor pressure is about .1 torr. This is a small fraction of the buffer gas pressure (He at 10 torr).

The aim of the project was to measure the peak radiation temperature (assumed related to the mean energy of electrons) in the laser discharge as a function of the tube temperature. A 24 gHz gated microwave radiometer was used.

It was found that at the tube temperatures at which the output power began to deteriorate, the electron radiation temperature showed a sharp increase (compared with radiation temperature in pure buffer).

Using the above result, we have postulated that this sudden increase is a result of Penning ionization of the Cu atoms. As a consequence of this process the number of Cu atoms available for lasing decrease.

PART B

The aim of the project was to study the dissociation of CO₂ in the glow discharge of flowing CO₂ lasers.

A TM₀₁₁ microwave (3 gHz) cavity was used to measure the radially averaged electron density n_e and the electron-neutral collision frequency in the laser discharge. An estimate of the electric field is made from these two measurements. A gas chromatograph was used to measure the chemical composition of the gases after going through the discharge. This instrument was checked against a mass spectrometer for accuracy and sensitivity.

Several typical laser mixtures were .used: CO₂-N₂-He (1,3,16), (1,3,0), (1,0,16), (1,2,10), (1,2,0), (1,0,10), (2,3,15), (2,3,0), (2,0,15), (1,3,16)+ H₂O and pure CO₂. Results show that for the conditions studied the dissociation as a function of the electron density is uniquely determined by the STP partial flow rate of CO₂, regardless of the amount of N₂ and/or He present. The presence of water vapor in the discharge decreased the degree of dissociation.

A simple theoretical model was developed using thermodynamic equilibrium. The electrons were replaced in the calculations by a distributed heat source.

The results are analyzed with a simple kinetic model.

Essays on Correlated Equilibrium and Voter Turnout

This thesis consists of three essays in the areas of political economy and game theory, unified by their focus on the effects of pre-play communication on equilibrium outcomes.

Communication is fundamental to elections. Chapter 2 extends canonical voter turnout models, where citizens, divided into two competing parties, choose between costly voting and abstaining, to include any form of communication, and characterizes the resulting set of Aumann's correlated equilibria. In contrast to previous research, high-turnout equilibria exist in large electorates and uncertain environments. This difference arises because communication can coordinate behavior in such a way that citizens find it incentive compatible to follow their correlated signals to vote more. The equilibria have expected turnout of at least twice the size of the minority for a wide range of positive voting costs.

In Chapter 3 I introduce a new equilibrium concept, called subcorrelated equilibrium, which fills the gap between Nash and correlated equilibrium, extending the latter to multiple mediators. Subcommunication equilibrium similarly extends communication equilibrium for incomplete information games. I explore the properties of these solutions and establish an equivalence between a subset of subcommunication equilibria and Myerson's quasi-principals' equilibria. I characterize an upper bound on expected turnout supported by subcorrelated equilibrium in the turnout game.

Chapter 4, co-authored with Thomas Palfrey, reports a new study of the effect of communication on voter turnout using a laboratory experiment. Before voting occurs, subjects may engage in various kinds of pre-play communication through computers. We study three communication treatments: No Communication, a control; Public Communication, where voters exchange public messages with all other voters, and Party Communication, where messages are exchanged only within one's own party. Our results point to a strong interaction effect between the form of communication and the voting cost. With a low voting cost, party communication increases turnout, while public communication decreases turnout. The data are consistent with correlated equilibrium play. With a high voting cost, public communication increases turnout. With communication, we find essentially no support for the standard Nash equilibrium turnout predictions.

Logarithmic Potential Theory on Riemann Surfaces

We develop a logarithmic potential theory on Riemann surfaces which generalizes logarithmic potential theory on the complex plane. We show the existence of an equilibrium measure and examine its structure. This leads to a formula for the structure of the equilibrium measure which is new even in the plane. We then use our results to study quadrature domains, Laplacian growth, and Coulomb gas ensembles on Riemann surfaces. We prove that the complement of the support of the equilibrium measure satisfies a quadrature identity. Furthermore, our setup allows us to naturally realize weak solutions of Laplacian growth (for a general time-dependent source) as an evolution of the support of equilibrium measures. When applied to the Riemann sphere this approach unifies the known methods for generating interior and exterior Laplacian growth. We later narrow our focus to a special class of quadrature domains which we call Algebraic Quadrature Domains. We show that many of the properties of quadrature domains generalize to this setting. In particular, the boundary of an Algebraic Quadrature Domain is the inverse image of a planar algebraic curve under a meromorphic function. This makes the study of the topology of Algebraic Quadrature Domains an interesting problem. We briefly investigate this problem and then narrow our focus to the study of the topology of classical quadrature domains. We extend the results of Lee and Makarov and prove (for n ≥ 3) c ≤ 5n-5, where c and n denote the connectivity and degree of a (classical) quadrature domain. At the same time we obtain a new upper bound on the number of isolated points of the algebraic curve corresponding to the boundary and thus a new upper bound on the number of special points. In the final chapter we study Coulomb gas ensembles on Riemann surfaces.

Study of the problem of the Los Angeles sewage disposal

No abstract.

Special Sewage Problem : Report on the Sewage Problem of the City of Los Angeles with Conclusions and Recommendations

Not available.