Real-Time Bayesian Analysis of Ground Motion Envelopes for Earthquake Early Warning

Current earthquake early warning systems usually make magnitude and location predictions and send out a warning to the users based on those predictions. We describe an algorithm that assesses the validity of the predictions in real-time. Our algorithm monitors the envelopes of horizontal and vertical acceleration, velocity, and displacement. We compare the observed envelopes with the ones predicted by Cua & Heaton's envelope ground motion prediction equations (Cua 2005). We define a "test function" as the logarithm of the ratio between observed and predicted envelopes at every second in real-time. Once the envelopes deviate beyond an acceptable threshold, we declare a misfit. Kurtosis and skewness of a time evolving test function are used to rapidly identify a misfit. Real-time kurtosis and skewness calculations are also inputs to both probabilistic (Logistic Regression and Bayesian Logistic Regression) and nonprobabilistic (Least Squares and Linear Discriminant Analysis) models that ultimately decide if there is an unacceptable level of misfit. This algorithm is designed to work at a wide range of amplitude scales. When tested with synthetic and actual seismic signals from past events, it works for both small and large events.

Photographic investigations in molecular spectroscopy

The determination of the energy levels and the probabilities of transition between them, by the formal analysis of observed electronic, vibrational, and rotational band structures, forms the direct goal of all investigations of molecular spectra, but the significance of such data lies in the possibility of relating them theoretically to more concrete properties of molecules and the radiation field. From the well developed electronic spectra of diatomic molecules, it has been possible, with the aid of the non-relativistic quantum mechanics, to obtain accurate moments of inertia, molecular potential functions, electronic structures, and detailed information concerning the coupling of spin and orbital angular monenta with the angular momentum of nuclear rotation. The silicon fluori1e molecule has been investigated in this laboratory, and is found to emit bands whose vibrational and rotational structures can be analyzed in this detailed fashion.

Like silicon fluoride, however, the great majority of diatomic molecules are formed only under the unusual conditions of electrical discharge, or in high temperature furnaces, so that although their spectra are of great theoretical interest, the chemist is eager to proceed to a study of polyatomic molecules, in the hope that their more practically interesting structures might also be determined with the accuracy and assurance which characterize the spectroscopic determinations of the constants of diatomic molecules. Some progress has been made in the determination of molecule potential functions from the vibrational term values deduced from Raman and infrared spectra, but in no case can the calculations be carried out with great generality, since the number of known term values is always small compared with the total number of potential constants in even so restricted a potential function as the simple quadratic type. For the determination of nuclear configurations and bond distances, however, a knowledge of the rotational terms is required. The spectra of about twelve of the simpler polyatomic molecules have been subjected to rotational analyses, and a number of bond distances are known with considerable accuracy, yet the number of molecules whose rotational fine structure has been resolved even with the most powerful instruments is small. Consequently, it was felt desirable to investigate the spectra of a number of other promising polyatomic molecules, with the purpose of carrying out complete rotational analyses of all resolvable bands, and ascertaining the value of the unresolved band envelopes in determining the structures of such molecules, in the cases in which resolution is no longer possible. Although many of the compounds investigated absorbed too feebly to be photographed under high dispersion with the present infrared sensitizations, the location and relative intensities of their bands, determined by low dispersion measurements, will be reported in the hope that these compounds may be reinvestigated in the future with improved techniques.

Nonstationary response of structures and its application to earthquake engineering

This thesis presents a simplified state-variable method to solve for the nonstationary response of linear MDOF systems subjected to a modulated stationary excitation in both time and frequency domains. The resulting covariance matrix and evolutionary spectral density matrix of the response may be expressed as a product of a constant system matrix and a time-dependent matrix, the latter can be explicitly evaluated for most envelopes currently prevailing in engineering. The stationary correlation matrix of the response may be found by taking the limit of the covariance response when a unit step envelope is used. The reliability analysis can then be performed based on the first two moments of the response obtained.

The method presented facilitates obtaining explicit solutions for general linear MDOF systems and is flexible enough to be applied to different stochastic models of excitation such as the stationary models, modulated stationary models, filtered stationary models, and filtered modulated stationary models and their stochastic equivalents including the random pulse train model, filtered shot noise, and some ARMA models in earthquake engineering. This approach may also be readily incorporated into finite element codes for random vibration analysis of linear structures.

A set of explicit solutions for the response of simple linear structures subjected to modulated white noise earthquake models with four different envelopes are presented as illustration. In addition, the method has been applied to three selected topics of interest in earthquake engineering, namely, nonstationary analysis of primary-secondary systems with classical or nonclassical dampings, soil layer response and related structural reliability analysis, and the effect of the vertical components on seismic performance of structures. For all the three cases, explicit solutions are obtained, dynamic characteristics of structures are investigated, and some suggestions are given for aseismic design of structures.

The needle in the hundred square degree haystack: The hunt for binary neutron star mergers with LIGO and Palomar Transient Factory

The Advanced LIGO and Virgo experiments are poised to detect gravitational waves (GWs) directly for the first time this decade. The ultimate prize will be joint observation of a compact binary merger in both gravitational and electromagnetic channels. However, GW sky locations that are uncertain by hundreds of square degrees will pose a challenge. I describe a real-time detection pipeline and a rapid Bayesian parameter estimation code that will make it possible to search promptly for optical counterparts in Advanced LIGO. Having analyzed a comprehensive population of simulated GW sources, we describe the sky localization accuracy that the GW detector network will achieve as each detector comes online and progresses toward design sensitivity. Next, in preparation for the optical search with the intermediate Palomar Transient Factory (iPTF), we have developed a unique capability to detect optical afterglows of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) detected by the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM). Its comparable error regions offer a close parallel to the Advanced LIGO problem, but Fermi's unique access to MeV-GeV photons and its near all-sky coverage may allow us to look at optical afterglows in a relatively unexplored part of the GRB parameter space. We present the discovery and broadband follow-up observations (X-ray, UV, optical, millimeter, and radio) of eight GBM-IPTF afterglows. Two of the bursts (GRB 130702A / iPTF13bxl and GRB 140606B / iPTF14bfu) are at low redshift (z=0.145 and z = 0.384, respectively), are sub-luminous with respect to "standard" cosmological bursts, and have spectroscopically confirmed broad-line type Ic supernovae. These two bursts are possibly consistent with mildly relativistic shocks breaking out from the progenitor envelopes rather than the standard mechanism of internal shocks within an ultra-relativistic jet. On a technical level, the GBM--IPTF effort is a prototype for locating and observing optical counterparts of GW events in Advanced LIGO with the Zwicky Transient Facility.

Lq estimates for rearrangements of Fourier series

This work is concerned with estimating the upper envelopes S* of the absolute values of the partial sums of rearranged trigonometric sums. A.M. Garsia [Annals of Math. 79 (1964), 634-9] gave an estimate for the L₂ norms of the S*, averaged over all rearrangements of the original (finite) sum. This estimate enabled him to prove that the Fourier series of any function in L₂ can be rearranged so that it converges a.e. The main result of this thesis is a similar estimate of the L_q norms of the S*, for all even integers q. This holds for finite linear combinations of functions which satisfy a condition which is a generalization of orthonormality in the L₂ case. This estimate for finite sums is extended to Fourier series of L_q functions; it is shown that there are functions to which the Men’shov-Paley Theorem does not apply, but whose Fourier series can nevertheless be rearranged so that the S* of the rearranged series is in L_q.