3 resultados para Effective Reproduction Number

em CaltechTHESIS


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Detailed pulsed neutron measurements have been performed in graphite assemblies ranging in size from 30.48 cm x 38.10 cm x 38.10 cm to 91.44 cm x 66.67 cm x 66.67 cm. Results of the measurement have been compared to a modeled theoretical computation.

In the first set of experiments, we measured the effective decay constant of the neutron population in ten graphite stacks as a function of time after the source burst. We found the decay to be non-exponential in the six smallest assemblies, while in three larger assemblies the decay was exponential over a significant portion of the total measuring interval. The decay in the largest stack was exponential over the entire ten millisecond measuring interval. The non-exponential decay mode occurred when the effective decay constant exceeded 1600 sec^( -1).

In a second set of experiments, we measured the spatial dependence of the neutron population in four graphite stacks as a function of time after the source pulse. By doing an harmonic analysis of the spatial shape of the neutron distribution, we were able to compute the effective decay constants of the first two spatial modes. In addition, we were able to compute the time dependent effective wave number of neutron distribution in the stacks.

Finally, we used a Laplace transform technique and a simple modeled scattering kernel to solve a diffusion equation for the time and energy dependence of the neutron distribution in the graphite stacks. Comparison of these theoretical results with the results of the first set of experiments indicated that more exact theoretical analysis would be required to adequately describe the experiments.

The implications of our experimental results for the theory of pulsed neutron experiments in polycrystalline media are discussed in the last chapter.

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The objective of this thesis is to develop a framework to conduct velocity resolved - scalar modeled (VR-SM) simulations, which will enable accurate simulations at higher Reynolds and Schmidt (Sc) numbers than are currently feasible. The framework established will serve as a first step to enable future simulation studies for practical applications. To achieve this goal, in-depth analyses of the physical, numerical, and modeling aspects related to Sc>>1 are presented, specifically when modeling in the viscous-convective subrange. Transport characteristics are scrutinized by examining scalar-velocity Fourier mode interactions in Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) datasets and suggest that scalar modes in the viscous-convective subrange do not directly affect large-scale transport for high Sc. Further observations confirm that discretization errors inherent in numerical schemes can be sufficiently large to wipe out any meaningful contribution from subfilter models. This provides strong incentive to develop more effective numerical schemes to support high Sc simulations. To lower numerical dissipation while maintaining physically and mathematically appropriate scalar bounds during the convection step, a novel method of enforcing bounds is formulated, specifically for use with cubic Hermite polynomials. Boundedness of the scalar being transported is effected by applying derivative limiting techniques, and physically plausible single sub-cell extrema are allowed to exist to help minimize numerical dissipation. The proposed bounding algorithm results in significant performance gain in DNS of turbulent mixing layers and of homogeneous isotropic turbulence. Next, the combined physical/mathematical behavior of the subfilter scalar-flux vector is analyzed in homogeneous isotropic turbulence, by examining vector orientation in the strain-rate eigenframe. The results indicate no discernible dependence on the modeled scalar field, and lead to the identification of the tensor-diffusivity model as a good representation of the subfilter flux. Velocity resolved - scalar modeled simulations of homogeneous isotropic turbulence are conducted to confirm the behavior theorized in these a priori analyses, and suggest that the tensor-diffusivity model is ideal for use in the viscous-convective subrange. Simulations of a turbulent mixing layer are also discussed, with the partial objective of analyzing Schmidt number dependence of a variety of scalar statistics. Large-scale statistics are confirmed to be relatively independent of the Schmidt number for Sc>>1, which is explained by the dominance of subfilter dissipation over resolved molecular dissipation in the simulations. Overall, the VR-SM framework presented is quite effective in predicting large-scale transport characteristics of high Schmidt number scalars, however, it is determined that prediction of subfilter quantities would entail additional modeling intended specifically for this purpose. The VR-SM simulations presented in this thesis provide us with the opportunity to overlap with experimental studies, while at the same time creating an assortment of baseline datasets for future validation of LES models, thereby satisfying the objectives outlined for this work.

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The application of principles from evolutionary biology has long been used to gain new insights into the progression and clinical control of both infectious diseases and neoplasms. This iterative evolutionary process consists of expansion, diversification and selection within an adaptive landscape - species are subject to random genetic or epigenetic alterations that result in variations; genetic information is inherited through asexual reproduction and strong selective pressures such as therapeutic intervention can lead to the adaptation and expansion of resistant variants. These principles lie at the center of modern evolutionary synthesis and constitute the primary reasons for the development of resistance and therapeutic failure, but also provide a framework that allows for more effective control.

A model system for studying the evolution of resistance and control of therapeutic failure is the treatment of chronic HIV-1 infection by broadly neutralizing antibody (bNAb) therapy. A relatively recent discovery is that a minority of HIV-infected individuals can produce broadly neutralizing antibodies, that is, antibodies that inhibit infection by many strains of HIV. Passive transfer of human antibodies for the prevention and treatment of HIV-1 infection is increasingly being considered as an alternative to a conventional vaccine. However, recent evolution studies have uncovered that antibody treatment can exert selective pressure on virus that results in the rapid evolution of resistance. In certain cases, complete resistance to an antibody is conferred with a single amino acid substitution on the viral envelope of HIV.

The challenges in uncovering resistance mechanisms and designing effective combination strategies to control evolutionary processes and prevent therapeutic failure apply more broadly. We are motivated by two questions: Can we predict the evolution to resistance by characterizing genetic alterations that contribute to modified phenotypic fitness? Given an evolutionary landscape and a set of candidate therapies, can we computationally synthesize treatment strategies that control evolution to resistance?

To address the first question, we propose a mathematical framework to reason about evolutionary dynamics of HIV from computationally derived Gibbs energy fitness landscapes -- expanding the theoretical concept of an evolutionary landscape originally conceived by Sewall Wright to a computable, quantifiable, multidimensional, structurally defined fitness surface upon which to study complex HIV evolutionary outcomes.

To design combination treatment strategies that control evolution to resistance, we propose a methodology that solves for optimal combinations and concentrations of candidate therapies, and allows for the ability to quantifiably explore tradeoffs in treatment design, such as limiting the number of candidate therapies in the combination, dosage constraints and robustness to error. Our algorithm is based on the application of recent results in optimal control to an HIV evolutionary dynamics model and is constructed from experimentally derived antibody resistant phenotypes and their single antibody pharmacodynamics. This method represents a first step towards integrating principled engineering techniques with an experimentally based mathematical model in the rational design of combination treatment strategies and offers predictive understanding of the effects of combination therapies of evolutionary dynamics and resistance of HIV. Preliminary in vitro studies suggest that the combination antibody therapies predicted by our algorithm can neutralize heterogeneous viral populations despite containing resistant mutations.