13 resultados para Economics, General
em CaltechTHESIS
Resumo:
Various families of exact solutions to the Einstein and Einstein-Maxwell field equations of General Relativity are treated for situations of sufficient symmetry that only two independent variables arise. The mathematical problem then reduces to consideration of sets of two coupled nonlinear differential equations.
The physical situations in which such equations arise include: a) the external gravitational field of an axisymmetric, uncharged steadily rotating body, b) cylindrical gravitational waves with two degrees of freedom, c) colliding plane gravitational waves, d) the external gravitational and electromagnetic fields of a static, charged axisymmetric body, and e) colliding plane electromagnetic and gravitational waves. Through the introduction of suitable potentials and coordinate transformations, a formalism is presented which treats all these problems simultaneously. These transformations and potentials may be used to generate new solutions to the Einstein-Maxwell equations from solutions to the vacuum Einstein equations, and vice-versa.
The calculus of differential forms is used as a tool for generation of similarity solutions and generalized similarity solutions. It is further used to find the invariance group of the equations; this in turn leads to various finite transformations that give new, physically distinct solutions from old. Some of the above results are then generalized to the case of three independent variables.
Resumo:
This thesis examines foundational questions in behavioral economics—also called psychology and economics—and the neural foundations of varied sources of utility. We have three primary aims: First, to provide the field of behavioral economics with psychological theories of behavior that are derived from neuroscience and to use those theories to identify novel evidence for behavioral biases. Second, we provide neural and micro foundations of behavioral preferences that give rise to well-documented empirical phenomena in behavioral economics. Finally, we show how a deep understanding of the neural foundations of these behavioral preferences can feed back into our theories of social preferences and reference-dependent utility.
The first chapter focuses on classical conditioning and its application in identifying the psychological underpinnings of a pricing phenomenon. We return to classical conditioning again in the third chapter where we use fMRI to identify varied sources of utility—here, reference dependent versus direct utility—and cross-validate our interpretation with a conditioning experiment. The second chapter engages social preferences and, more broadly, causative utility (wherein the decision-maker derives utility from making or avoiding particular choices).
Resumo:
The dissertation studies the general area of complex networked systems that consist of interconnected and active heterogeneous components and usually operate in uncertain environments and with incomplete information. Problems associated with those systems are typically large-scale and computationally intractable, yet they are also very well-structured and have features that can be exploited by appropriate modeling and computational methods. The goal of this thesis is to develop foundational theories and tools to exploit those structures that can lead to computationally-efficient and distributed solutions, and apply them to improve systems operations and architecture.
Specifically, the thesis focuses on two concrete areas. The first one is to design distributed rules to manage distributed energy resources in the power network. The power network is undergoing a fundamental transformation. The future smart grid, especially on the distribution system, will be a large-scale network of distributed energy resources (DERs), each introducing random and rapid fluctuations in power supply, demand, voltage and frequency. These DERs provide a tremendous opportunity for sustainability, efficiency, and power reliability. However, there are daunting technical challenges in managing these DERs and optimizing their operation. The focus of this dissertation is to develop scalable, distributed, and real-time control and optimization to achieve system-wide efficiency, reliability, and robustness for the future power grid. In particular, we will present how to explore the power network structure to design efficient and distributed market and algorithms for the energy management. We will also show how to connect the algorithms with physical dynamics and existing control mechanisms for real-time control in power networks.
The second focus is to develop distributed optimization rules for general multi-agent engineering systems. A central goal in multiagent systems is to design local control laws for the individual agents to ensure that the emergent global behavior is desirable with respect to the given system level objective. Ideally, a system designer seeks to satisfy this goal while conditioning each agent’s control on the least amount of information possible. Our work focused on achieving this goal using the framework of game theory. In particular, we derived a systematic methodology for designing local agent objective functions that guarantees (i) an equivalence between the resulting game-theoretic equilibria and the system level design objective and (ii) that the resulting game possesses an inherent structure that can be exploited for distributed learning, e.g., potential games. The control design can then be completed by applying any distributed learning algorithm that guarantees convergence to the game-theoretic equilibrium. One main advantage of this game theoretic approach is that it provides a hierarchical decomposition between the decomposition of the systemic objective (game design) and the specific local decision rules (distributed learning algorithms). This decomposition provides the system designer with tremendous flexibility to meet the design objectives and constraints inherent in a broad class of multiagent systems. Furthermore, in many settings the resulting controllers will be inherently robust to a host of uncertainties including asynchronous clock rates, delays in information, and component failures.
Resumo:
This thesis belongs to the growing field of economic networks. In particular, we develop three essays in which we study the problem of bargaining, discrete choice representation, and pricing in the context of networked markets. Despite analyzing very different problems, the three essays share the common feature of making use of a network representation to describe the market of interest.
In Chapter 1 we present an analysis of bargaining in networked markets. We make two contributions. First, we characterize market equilibria in a bargaining model, and find that players' equilibrium payoffs coincide with their degree of centrality in the network, as measured by Bonacich's centrality measure. This characterization allows us to map, in a simple way, network structures into market equilibrium outcomes, so that payoffs dispersion in networked markets is driven by players' network positions. Second, we show that the market equilibrium for our model converges to the so called eigenvector centrality measure. We show that the economic condition for reaching convergence is that the players' discount factor goes to one. In particular, we show how the discount factor, the matching technology, and the network structure interact in a very particular way in order to see the eigenvector centrality as the limiting case of our market equilibrium.
We point out that the eigenvector approach is a way of finding the most central or relevant players in terms of the “global” structure of the network, and to pay less attention to patterns that are more “local”. Mathematically, the eigenvector centrality captures the relevance of players in the bargaining process, using the eigenvector associated to the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix of a given network. Thus our result may be viewed as an economic justification of the eigenvector approach in the context of bargaining in networked markets.
As an application, we analyze the special case of seller-buyer networks, showing how our framework may be useful for analyzing price dispersion as a function of sellers and buyers' network positions.
Finally, in Chapter 3 we study the problem of price competition and free entry in networked markets subject to congestion effects. In many environments, such as communication networks in which network flows are allocated, or transportation networks in which traffic is directed through the underlying road architecture, congestion plays an important role. In particular, we consider a network with multiple origins and a common destination node, where each link is owned by a firm that sets prices in order to maximize profits, whereas users want to minimize the total cost they face, which is given by the congestion cost plus the prices set by firms. In this environment, we introduce the notion of Markovian traffic equilibrium to establish the existence and uniqueness of a pure strategy price equilibrium, without assuming that the demand functions are concave nor imposing particular functional forms for the latency functions. We derive explicit conditions to guarantee existence and uniqueness of equilibria. Given this existence and uniqueness result, we apply our framework to study entry decisions and welfare, and establish that in congested markets with free entry, the number of firms exceeds the social optimum.
Resumo:
Computational general relativity is a field of study which has reached maturity only within the last decade. This thesis details several studies that elucidate phenomena related to the coalescence of compact object binaries. Chapters 2 and 3 recounts work towards developing new analytical tools for visualizing and reasoning about dynamics in strongly curved spacetimes. In both studies, the results employ analogies with the classical theory of electricity and magnitism, first (Ch. 2) in the post-Newtonian approximation to general relativity and then (Ch. 3) in full general relativity though in the absence of matter sources. In Chapter 4, we examine the topological structure of absolute event horizons during binary black hole merger simulations conducted with the SpEC code. Chapter 6 reports on the progress of the SpEC code in simulating the coalescence of neutron star-neutron star binaries, while Chapter 7 tests the effects of various numerical gauge conditions on the robustness of black hole formation from stellar collapse in SpEC. In Chapter 5, we examine the nature of pseudospectral expansions of non-smooth functions motivated by the need to simulate the stellar surface in Chapters 6 and 7. In Chapter 8, we study how thermal effects in the nuclear equation of state effect the equilibria and stability of hypermassive neutron stars. Chapter 9 presents supplements to the work in Chapter 8, including an examination of the stability question raised in Chapter 8 in greater mathematical detail.
Resumo:
In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.
We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC2) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC2 criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC2 criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC2 to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.
We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.
In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.
In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.
We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.
In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.
Resumo:
This thesis consists of two parts. In Part I, we develop a multipole moment formalism in general relativity and use it to analyze the motion and precession of compact bodies. More specifically, the generic, vacuum, dynamical gravitational field of the exterior universe in the vicinity of a freely moving body is expanded in positive powers of the distance r away from the body's spatial origin (i.e., in the distance r from its timelike-geodesic world line). The expansion coefficients, called "external multipole moments,'' are defined covariantly in terms of the Riemann curvature tensor and its spatial derivatives evaluated on the body's central world line. In a carefully chosen class of de Donder coordinates, the expansion of the external field involves only integral powers of r ; no logarithmic terms occur. The expansion is used to derive higher-order corrections to previously known laws of motion and precession for black holes and other bodies. The resulting laws of motion and precession are expressed in terms of couplings of the time derivatives of the body's quadrupole and octopole moments to the external moments, i.e., to the external curvature and its gradient.
In part II, we study the interaction of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves in a black-hole magnetosphere with the "dragging of inertial frames" effect of the hole's rotation - i.e., with the hole's "gravitomagnetic field." More specifically: we first rewrite the laws of perfect general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics (GRMHD) in 3+1 language in a general spacetime, in terms of quantities (magnetic field, flow velocity, ...) that would be measured by the ''fiducial observers” whose world lines are orthogonal to (arbitrarily chosen) hypersurfaces of constant time. We then specialize to a stationary spacetime and MHD flow with one arbitrary spatial symmetry (e.g., the stationary magnetosphere of a Kerr black hole); and for this spacetime we reduce the GRMHD equations to a set of algebraic equations. The general features of the resulting stationary, symmetric GRMHD magnetospheric solutions are discussed, including the Blandford-Znajek effect in which the gravitomagnetic field interacts with the magnetosphere to produce an outflowing jet. Then in a specific model spacetime with two spatial symmetries, which captures the key features of the Kerr geometry, we derive the GRMHD equations which govern weak, linealized perturbations of a stationary magnetosphere with outflowing jet. These perturbation equations are then Fourier analyzed in time t and in the symmetry coordinate x, and subsequently solved numerically. The numerical solutions describe the interaction of MHD waves with the gravitomagnetic field. It is found that, among other features, when an oscillatory external force is applied to the region of the magnetosphere where plasma (e+e-) is being created, the magnetosphere responds especially strongly at a particular, resonant, driving frequency. The resonant frequency is that for which the perturbations appear to be stationary (time independent) in the common rest frame of the freshly created plasma and the rotating magnetic field lines. The magnetosphere of a rotating black hole, when buffeted by nonaxisymmetric magnetic fields anchored in a surrounding accretion disk, might exhibit an analogous resonance. If so then the hole's outflowing jet might be modulated at resonant frequencies ω=(m/2) ΩH where m is an integer and ΩH is the hole's angular velocity.
Resumo:
Herein are described the total syntheses of all members of the transtaganolide and basiliolide natural product family. Utilitzation of an Ireland–Claisen rearrangement/Diels–Alder cycloaddition cascade (ICR/DA) allowed for rapid assembly of the transtaganolide and basiliolide oxabicyclo[2.2.2]octane core. This methodology is general and was applicable to all members of the natural product family.
A brief introduction outlines all the synthetic progress previously disclosed by Lee, Dudley, and Johansson. This also includes the initial syntheses of transtaganolides C and D, as well as basiliolide B and epi-basiliolide B accomplished by Stoltz in 2011. Lastly, we discuss our racemic synthesis of basililide C and epi-basiliolide C, which utilized an ICR/DA cascade to constuct the oxabicyclo[2.2.2]octane core and formal [5+2] annulation to form the ketene-acetal containing 7-membered C-ring.
Next, we describe a strategy for an asymmetric ICR/DA cascade, by incorporation of a chiral silane directing group. This allowed for enantioselective construction of the C8 all-carbon quaternary center formed in the Ireland–Claisen rearrangement. Furthermore, a single hydride reduction and subsequent translactonization of a C4 methylester bearing oxabicyclo[2.2.2]octane core demonstrated a viable strategy for the desired skeletal rearrangement to obtain pentacyclic transtaganolides A and B. Application of the asymmetric strategy culminated in the total syntheses of (–)-transtaganolide A, (+)-transtaganolide B, (+)-transtaganolide C, and (–)-transtaganolide D. Comparison of the optical rotation data of the synthetically derived transtaganolides to that from the isolated counterparts has overarching biosynthetic implications which are discussed.
Lastly, improvement to the formal [5+2] annulation strategy is described. Negishi cross-coupling of methoxyethynyl zinc chloride using a palladium Xantphos catalyst is optimized for iodo-cyclohexene. Application of this technology to an iodo-pyrone geranyl ester allowed for formation and isolation of the eneyne product. Hydration of the enenye product forms natural metabolite basiliopyrone. Furthermore, the eneyne product can undergo an ICR/DA cascade and form transtaganolides C and D in a single step from an achiral monocyclic precursor.
Resumo:
This thesis presents a new class of solvers for the subsonic compressible Navier-Stokes equations in general two- and three-dimensional spatial domains. The proposed methodology incorporates: 1) A novel linear-cost implicit solver based on use of higher-order backward differentiation formulae (BDF) and the alternating direction implicit approach (ADI); 2) A fast explicit solver; 3) Dispersionless spectral spatial discretizations; and 4) A domain decomposition strategy that negotiates the interactions between the implicit and explicit domains. In particular, the implicit methodology is quasi-unconditionally stable (it does not suffer from CFL constraints for adequately resolved flows), and it can deliver orders of time accuracy between two and six in the presence of general boundary conditions. In fact this thesis presents, for the first time in the literature, high-order time-convergence curves for Navier-Stokes solvers based on the ADI strategy---previous ADI solvers for the Navier-Stokes equations have not demonstrated orders of temporal accuracy higher than one. An extended discussion is presented in this thesis which places on a solid theoretical basis the observed quasi-unconditional stability of the methods of orders two through six. The performance of the proposed solvers is favorable. For example, a two-dimensional rough-surface configuration including boundary layer effects at Reynolds number equal to one million and Mach number 0.85 (with a well-resolved boundary layer, run up to a sufficiently long time that single vortices travel the entire spatial extent of the domain, and with spatial mesh sizes near the wall of the order of one hundred-thousandth the length of the domain) was successfully tackled in a relatively short (approximately thirty-hour) single-core run; for such discretizations an explicit solver would require truly prohibitive computing times. As demonstrated via a variety of numerical experiments in two- and three-dimensions, further, the proposed multi-domain parallel implicit-explicit implementations exhibit high-order convergence in space and time, useful stability properties, limited dispersion, and high parallel efficiency.
Resumo:
We present a complete system for Spectral Cauchy characteristic extraction (Spectral CCE). Implemented in C++ within the Spectral Einstein Code (SpEC), the method employs numerous innovative algorithms to efficiently calculate the Bondi strain, news, and flux.
Spectral CCE was envisioned to ensure physically accurate gravitational wave-forms computed for the Laser Interferometer Gravitational wave Observatory (LIGO) and similar experiments, while working toward a template bank with more than a thousand waveforms to span the binary black hole (BBH) problem’s seven-dimensional parameter space.
The Bondi strain, news, and flux are physical quantities central to efforts to understand and detect astrophysical gravitational wave sources within the Simulations of eXtreme Spacetime (SXS) collaboration, with the ultimate aim of providing the first strong field probe of the Einstein field equation.
In a series of included papers, we demonstrate stability, convergence, and gauge invariance. We also demonstrate agreement between Spectral CCE and the legacy Pitt null code, while achieving a factor of 200 improvement in computational efficiency.
Spectral CCE represents a significant computational advance. It is the foundation upon which further capability will be built, specifically enabling the complete calculation of junk-free, gauge-free, and physically valid waveform data on the fly within SpEC.
Resumo:
A person living in an industrialized society has almost no choice but to receive information daily with negative implications for himself or others. His attention will often be drawn to the ups and downs of economic indicators or the alleged misdeeds of leaders and organizations. Reacting to new information is central to economics, but economics typically ignores the affective aspect of the response, for example, of stress or anger. These essays present the results of considering how the affective aspect of the response can influence economic outcomes.
The first chapter presents an experiment in which individuals were presented with information about various non-profit organizations and allowed to take actions that rewarded or punished those organizations. When social interaction was introduced into this environment an asymmetry between rewarding and punishing appeared. The net effects of punishment became greater and more variable, whereas the effects of reward were unchanged. The individuals were more strongly influenced by negative social information and used that information to target unpopular organizations. These behaviors contributed to an increase in inequality among the outcomes of the organizations.
The second and third chapters present empirical studies of reactions to negative information about local economic conditions. Economic factors are among the most prevalent stressors, and stress is known to have numerous negative effects on health. These chapters document localized, transient effects of the announcement of information about large-scale job losses. News of mass layoffs and shut downs of large military bases are found to decrease birth weights and gestational ages among babies born in the affected regions. The effect magnitudes are close to those estimated in similar studies of disasters.
Resumo:
Time, risk, and attention are all integral to economic decision making. The aim of this work is to understand those key components of decision making using a variety of approaches: providing axiomatic characterizations to investigate time discounting, generating measures of visual attention to infer consumers' intentions, and examining data from unique field settings.
Chapter 2, co-authored with Federico Echenique and Kota Saito, presents the first revealed-preference characterizations of exponentially-discounted utility model and its generalizations. My characterizations provide non-parametric revealed-preference tests. I apply the tests to data from a recent experiment, and find that the axiomatization delivers new insights on a dataset that had been analyzed by traditional parametric methods.
Chapter 3, co-authored with Min Jeong Kang and Colin Camerer, investigates whether "pre-choice" measures of visual attention improve in prediction of consumers' purchase intentions. We measure participants' visual attention using eyetracking or mousetracking while they make hypothetical as well as real purchase decisions. I find that different patterns of visual attention are associated with hypothetical and real decisions. I then demonstrate that including information on visual attention improves prediction of purchase decisions when attention is measured with mousetracking.
Chapter 4 investigates individuals' attitudes towards risk in a high-stakes environment using data from a TV game show, Jeopardy!. I first quantify players' subjective beliefs about answering questions correctly. Using those beliefs in estimation, I find that the representative player is risk averse. I then find that trailing players tend to wager more than "folk" strategies that are known among the community of contestants and fans, and this tendency is related to their confidence. I also find gender differences: male players take more risk than female players, and even more so when they are competing against two other male players.
Chapter 5, co-authored with Colin Camerer, investigates the dynamics of the favorite-longshot bias (FLB) using data on horse race betting from an online exchange that allows bettors to trade "in-play." I find that probabilistic forecasts implied by market prices before start of the races are well-calibrated, but the degree of FLB increases significantly as the events approach toward the end.
Resumo:
Structural design is a decision-making process in which a wide spectrum of requirements, expectations, and concerns needs to be properly addressed. Engineering design criteria are considered together with societal and client preferences, and most of these design objectives are affected by the uncertainties surrounding a design. Therefore, realistic design frameworks must be able to handle multiple performance objectives and incorporate uncertainties from numerous sources into the process.
In this study, a multi-criteria based design framework for structural design under seismic risk is explored. The emphasis is on reliability-based performance objectives and their interaction with economic objectives. The framework has analysis, evaluation, and revision stages. In the probabilistic response analysis, seismic loading uncertainties as well as modeling uncertainties are incorporated. For evaluation, two approaches are suggested: one based on preference aggregation and the other based on socio-economics. Both implementations of the general framework are illustrated with simple but informative design examples to explore the basic features of the framework.
The first approach uses concepts similar to those found in multi-criteria decision theory, and directly combines reliability-based objectives with others. This approach is implemented in a single-stage design procedure. In the socio-economics based approach, a two-stage design procedure is recommended in which societal preferences are treated through reliability-based engineering performance measures, but emphasis is also given to economic objectives because these are especially important to the structural designer's client. A rational net asset value formulation including losses from uncertain future earthquakes is used to assess the economic performance of a design. A recently developed assembly-based vulnerability analysis is incorporated into the loss estimation.
The presented performance-based design framework allows investigation of various design issues and their impact on a structural design. It is a flexible one that readily allows incorporation of new methods and concepts in seismic hazard specification, structural analysis, and loss estimation.