Dynamics of the East Asian Summer Monsoon in Present and Future Climates

This thesis aims at enhancing our fundamental understanding of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), and mechanisms implicated in its climatology in present-day and warmer climates. We focus on the most prominent feature of the EASM, i.e., the so-called Meiyu-Baiu (MB), which is characterized by a well-defined, southwest to northeast elongated quasi-stationary rainfall band, spanning from eastern China to Japan and into the northwestern Pacific Ocean in June and July.

We begin with an observational study of the energetics of the MB front in present-day climate. Analyses of the moist static energy (MSE) budget of the MB front indicate that horizontal advection of moist enthalpy, primarily of dry enthalpy, sustains the front in a region of otherwise negative net energy input into the atmospheric column. A decomposition of the horizontal dry enthalpy advection into mean, transient, and stationary eddy fluxes identifies the longitudinal thermal gradient due to zonal asymmetries and the meridional stationary eddy velocity as the most influential factors determining the pattern of horizontal moist enthalpy advection. Numerical simulations in which the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is either retained or removed show that the TP influences the stationary enthalpy flux, and hence the MB front, primarily by changing the meridional stationary eddy velocity, with reinforced southerly wind on the northwestern flank of the north Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) over the MB region and northerly wind to its north. Changes in the longitudinal thermal gradient are mainly confined to the near downstream of the TP, with the resulting changes in zonal warm air advection having a lesser impact on the rainfall in the extended MB region.

Similar mechanisms are shown to be implicated in present climate simulations in the Couple Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. We find that the spatial distribution of the EASM precipitation simulated by different models is highly correlated with the meridional stationary eddy velocity. The correlation becomes more robust when energy fluxes into the atmospheric column are considered, consistent with the observational analyses. The spread in the area-averaged rainfall amount can be partially explained by the spread in the simulated globally-averaged precipitation, with the rest primarily due to the lower-level meridional wind convergence. Clear relationships between precipitation and zonal and meridional eddy velocities are observed.

Finally, the response of the EASM to greenhouse gas forcing is investigated at different time scales in CMIP5 model simulations. The reduction of radiative cooling and the increase in continental surface temperature occur much more rapidly than changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Without changes in SSTs, the rainfall in the monsoon region decreases (increases) over ocean (land) in most models. On longer time scales, as SSTs increase, rainfall changes are opposite. The total response to atmospheric CO^2 forcing and subsequent SST warming is a large (modest) increase in rainfall over ocean (land) in the EASM region. Dynamic changes, in spite of significant contributions from the thermodynamic component, play an important role in setting up the spatial pattern of precipitation changes. Rainfall anomalies over East China are a direct consequence of local land-sea contrast, while changes in the larger-scale oceanic rainfall band are closely associated with the displacement of the larger-scale NPSH. Numerical simulations show that topography and SST patterns play an important role in rainfall changes in the EASM region.

On the Cesari fixed point method in a Banach space

In a paper published in 1961, L. Cesari [1] introduces a method which extends certain earlier existence theorems of Cesari and Hale ([2] to [6]) for perturbation problems to strictly nonlinear problems. Various authors ([1], [7] to [15]) have now applied this method to nonlinear ordinary and partial differential equations. The basic idea of the method is to use the contraction principle to reduce an infinite-dimensional fixed point problem to a finite-dimensional problem which may be attacked using the methods of fixed point indexes.

The following is my formulation of the Cesari fixed point method:

Let B be a Banach space and let S be a finite-dimensional linear subspace of B. Let P be a projection of B onto S and suppose Г≤B such that pГ is compact and such that for every x in PГ, P^-1x∩Г is closed. Let W be a continuous mapping from Г into B. The Cesari method gives sufficient conditions for the existence of a fixed point of W in Г.

Let I denote the identity mapping in B. Clearly y = Wy for some y in Г if and only if both of the following conditions hold:

(i) Py = PWy.

(ii) y = (P + (I - P)W)y.

Definition. The Cesari fixed paint method applies to (Г, W, P) if and only if the following three conditions are satisfied:

(1) For each x in PГ, P + (I - P)W is a contraction from P^-1x∩Г into itself. Let y(x) be that element (uniqueness follows from the contraction principle) of P^-1x∩Г which satisfies the equation y(x) = Py(x) + (I-P)Wy(x).

(2) The function y just defined is continuous from PГ into B.

(3) There are no fixed points of PWy on the boundary of PГ, so that the (finite- dimensional) fixed point index i(PWy, int PГ) is defined.

Definition. If the Cesari fixed point method applies to (Г, W, P) then define i(Г, W, P) to be the index i(PWy, int PГ).

The three theorems of this thesis can now be easily stated.

Theorem 1 (Cesari). If i(Г, W, P) is defined and i(Г, W, P) ≠0, then there is a fixed point of W in Г.

Theorem 2. Let the Cesari fixed point method apply to both (Г, W, P₁) and (Г, W, P₂). Assume that P₂P₁=P₁P₂=P₁ and assume that either of the following two conditions holds:

(1) For every b in B and every z in the range of P₂, we have that ‖b=P₂b‖ ≤ ‖b-z‖

(2)P₂Г is convex.

Then i(Г, W, P₁) = i(Г, W, P₂).

Theorem 3. If Ω is a bounded open set and W is a compact operator defined on Ω so that the (infinite-dimensional) Leray-Schauder index i_LS(W, Ω) is defined, and if the Cesari fixed point method applies to (Ω, W, P), then i(Ω, W, P) = i_LS(W, Ω).

Theorems 2 and 3 are proved using mainly a homotopy theorem and a reduction theorem for the finite-dimensional and the Leray-Schauder indexes. These and other properties of indexes will be listed before the theorem in which they are used.