Quantifying Earthquake Collapse Risk of Tall Steel Moment Frame Buildings Using Rupture-to-Rafters Simulations

There is a sparse number of credible source models available from large-magnitude past earthquakes. A stochastic source model generation algorithm thus becomes necessary for robust risk quantification using scenario earthquakes. We present an algorithm that combines the physics of fault ruptures as imaged in laboratory earthquakes with stress estimates on the fault constrained by field observations to generate stochastic source models for large-magnitude (Mw 6.0-8.0) strike-slip earthquakes. The algorithm is validated through a statistical comparison of synthetic ground motion histories from a stochastically generated source model for a magnitude 7.90 earthquake and a kinematic finite-source inversion of an equivalent magnitude past earthquake on a geometrically similar fault. The synthetic dataset comprises of three-component ground motion waveforms, computed at 636 sites in southern California, for ten hypothetical rupture scenarios (five hypocenters, each with two rupture directions) on the southern San Andreas fault. A similar validation exercise is conducted for a magnitude 6.0 earthquake, the lower magnitude limit for the algorithm. Additionally, ground motions from the Mw7.9 earthquake simulations are compared against predictions by the Campbell-Bozorgnia NGA relation as well as the ShakeOut scenario earthquake. The algorithm is then applied to generate fifty source models for a hypothetical magnitude 7.9 earthquake originating at Parkfield, with rupture propagating from north to south (towards Wrightwood), similar to the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake. Using the spectral element method, three-component ground motion waveforms are computed in the Los Angeles basin for each scenario earthquake and the sensitivity of ground shaking intensity to seismic source parameters (such as the percentage of asperity area relative to the fault area, rupture speed, and risetime) is studied.

Under plausible San Andreas fault earthquakes in the next 30 years, modeled using the stochastic source algorithm, the performance of two 18-story steel moment frame buildings (UBC 1982 and 1997 designs) in southern California is quantified. The approach integrates rupture-to-rafters simulations into the PEER performance based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework. Using stochastic sources and computational seismic wave propagation, three-component ground motion histories at 636 sites in southern California are generated for sixty scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. The ruptures, with moment magnitudes in the range of 6.0-8.0, are assumed to occur at five locations on the southern section of the fault. Two unilateral rupture propagation directions are considered. The 30-year probabilities of all plausible ruptures in this magnitude range and in that section of the fault, as forecast by the United States Geological Survey, are distributed among these 60 earthquakes based on proximity and moment release. The response of the two 18-story buildings hypothetically located at each of the 636 sites under 3-component shaking from all 60 events is computed using 3-D nonlinear time-history analysis. Using these results, the probability of the structural response exceeding Immediate Occupancy (IO), Life-Safety (LS), and Collapse Prevention (CP) performance levels under San Andreas fault earthquakes over the next thirty years is evaluated.

Furthermore, the conditional and marginal probability distributions of peak ground velocity (PGV) and displacement (PGD) in Los Angeles and surrounding basins due to earthquakes occurring primarily on the mid-section of southern San Andreas fault are determined using Bayesian model class identification. Simulated ground motions at sites within 55-75km from the source from a suite of 60 earthquakes (Mw 6.0 − 8.0) primarily rupturing mid-section of San Andreas fault are considered for PGV and PGD data.

Effect of nonuniform seismic input on arch dams

Standard earthquake analyses of civil engineering structures use uniform ground motions even though considerable variations in both amplitude and phase can occur along the foundation interface for long-span bridges and large dams. The objective of this thesis is to quantify the effect that these nonuniformities have on the structural response.

The nonuniform, free-field motions of the foundation interface are assumed to be caused by incident plane body waves. The medium in which these waves travel is a linear, elastic half-space containing a canyon of uniform cross section in which the structure is placed. The solutions for the free-field motions that are due to incident SH, P and SV waves are calculated using the boundary element method.

An analysis of Pacoima (arch) dam located near Los Angeles, California, is performed for both uniform and nonuniform excitations. The important effect of nonuniformities in the free-field motions, sometimes leading to a decrease in the dam response and sometimes to an increase, is quantified.

On the solution of first excursion problems by simulation with applications to probabilistic seismic performance assessment

In a probabilistic assessment of the performance of structures subjected to uncertain environmental loads such as earthquakes, an important problem is to determine the probability that the structural response exceeds some specified limits within a given duration of interest. This problem is known as the first excursion problem, and it has been a challenging problem in the theory of stochastic dynamics and reliability analysis. In spite of the enormous amount of attention the problem has received, there is no procedure available for its general solution, especially for engineering problems of interest where the complexity of the system is large and the failure probability is small.

The application of simulation methods to solving the first excursion problem is investigated in this dissertation, with the objective of assessing the probabilistic performance of structures subjected to uncertain earthquake excitations modeled by stochastic processes. From a simulation perspective, the major difficulty in the first excursion problem comes from the large number of uncertain parameters often encountered in the stochastic description of the excitation. Existing simulation tools are examined, with special regard to their applicability in problems with a large number of uncertain parameters. Two efficient simulation methods are developed to solve the first excursion problem. The first method is developed specifically for linear dynamical systems, and it is found to be extremely efficient compared to existing techniques. The second method is more robust to the type of problem, and it is applicable to general dynamical systems. It is efficient for estimating small failure probabilities because the computational effort grows at a much slower rate with decreasing failure probability than standard Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation methods are applied to assess the probabilistic performance of structures subjected to uncertain earthquake excitation. Failure analysis is also carried out using the samples generated during simulation, which provide insight into the probable scenarios that will occur given that a structure fails.

Modeling and analysis of hysteretic structural behavior

For damaging response, the force-displacement relationship of a structure is highly nonlinear and history-dependent. For satisfactory analysis of such behavior, it is important to be able to characterize and to model the phenomenon of hysteresis accurately. A number of models have been proposed for response studies of hysteretic structures, some of which are examined in detail in this thesis. There are two popular classes of models used in the analysis of curvilinear hysteretic systems. The first is of the distributed element or assemblage type, which models the physical behavior of the system by using well-known building blocks. The second class of models is of the differential equation type, which is based on the introduction of an extra variable to describe the history dependence of the system.

Owing to their mathematical simplicity, the latter models have been used extensively for various applications in structural dynamics, most notably in the estimation of the response statistics of hysteretic systems subjected to stochastic excitation. But the fundamental characteristics of these models are still not clearly understood. A response analysis of systems using both the Distributed Element model and the differential equation model when subjected to a variety of quasi-static and dynamic loading conditions leads to the following conclusion: Caution must be exercised when employing the models belonging to the second class in structural response studies as they can produce misleading results.

The Massing's hypothesis, originally proposed for steady-state loading, can be extended to general transient loading as well, leading to considerable simplification in the analysis of the Distributed Element models. A simple, nonparametric identification technique is also outlined, by means of which an optimal model representation involving one additional state variable is determined for hysteretic systems.

Generalized modal identification of linear and nonlinear dynamic systems

This dissertation is concerned with the problem of determining the dynamic characteristics of complicated engineering systems and structures from the measurements made during dynamic tests or natural excitations. Particular attention is given to the identification and modeling of the behavior of structural dynamic systems in the nonlinear hysteretic response regime. Once a model for the system has been identified, it is intended to use this model to assess the condition of the system and to predict the response to future excitations.

A new identification methodology based upon a generalization of the method of modal identification for multi-degree-of-freedom dynaimcal systems subjected to base motion is developed. The situation considered herein is that in which only the base input and the response of a small number of degrees-of-freedom of the system are measured. In this method, called the generalized modal identification method, the response is separated into "modes" which are analogous to those of a linear system. Both parametric and nonparametric models can be employed to extract the unknown nature, hysteretic or nonhysteretic, of the generalized restoring force for each mode.

In this study, a simple four-term nonparametric model is used first to provide a nonhysteretic estimate of the nonlinear stiffness and energy dissipation behavior. To extract the hysteretic nature of nonlinear systems, a two-parameter distributed element model is then employed. This model exploits the results of the nonparametric identification as an initial estimate for the model parameters. This approach greatly improves the convergence of the subsequent optimization process.

The capability of the new method is verified using simulated response data from a three-degree-of-freedom system. The new method is also applied to the analysis of response data obtained from the U.S.-Japan cooperative pseudo-dynamic test of a full-scale six-story steel-frame structure.

The new system identification method described has been found to be both accurate and computationally efficient. It is believed that it will provide a useful tool for the analysis of structural response data.

Probabilistic robust control : theory and applications

In this work, the development of a probabilistic approach to robust control is motivated by structural control applications in civil engineering. Often in civil structural applications, a system's performance is specified in terms of its reliability. In addition, the model and input uncertainty for the system may be described most appropriately using probabilistic or "soft" bounds on the model and input sets. The probabilistic robust control methodology contrasts with existing H∞/μ robust control methodologies that do not use probability information for the model and input uncertainty sets, yielding only the guaranteed (i.e., "worst-case") system performance, and no information about the system's probable performance which would be of interest to civil engineers.

The design objective for the probabilistic robust controller is to maximize the reliability of the uncertain structure/controller system for a probabilistically-described uncertain excitation. The robust performance is computed for a set of possible models by weighting the conditional performance probability for a particular model by the probability of that model, then integrating over the set of possible models. This integration is accomplished efficiently using an asymptotic approximation. The probable performance can be optimized numerically over the class of allowable controllers to find the optimal controller. Also, if structural response data becomes available from a controlled structure, its probable performance can easily be updated using Bayes's Theorem to update the probability distribution over the set of possible models. An updated optimal controller can then be produced, if desired, by following the original procedure. Thus, the probabilistic framework integrates system identification and robust control in a natural manner.

The probabilistic robust control methodology is applied to two systems in this thesis. The first is a high-fidelity computer model of a benchmark structural control laboratory experiment. For this application, uncertainty in the input model only is considered. The probabilistic control design minimizes the failure probability of the benchmark system while remaining robust with respect to the input model uncertainty. The performance of an optimal low-order controller compares favorably with higher-order controllers for the same benchmark system which are based on other approaches. The second application is to the Caltech Flexible Structure, which is a light-weight aluminum truss structure actuated by three voice coil actuators. A controller is designed to minimize the failure probability for a nominal model of this system. Furthermore, the method for updating the model-based performance calculation given new response data from the system is illustrated.

Optimal design of building structures using genetic algorithms

A general framework for multi-criteria optimal design is presented which is well-suited for automated design of structural systems. A systematic computer-aided optimal design decision process is developed which allows the designer to rapidly evaluate and improve a proposed design by taking into account the major factors of interest related to different aspects such as design, construction, and operation.

The proposed optimal design process requires the selection of the most promising choice of design parameters taken from a large design space, based on an evaluation using specified criteria. The design parameters specify a particular design, and so they relate to member sizes, structural configuration, etc. The evaluation of the design uses performance parameters which may include structural response parameters, risks due to uncertain loads and modeling errors, construction and operating costs, etc. Preference functions are used to implement the design criteria in a "soft" form. These preference functions give a measure of the degree of satisfaction of each design criterion. The overall evaluation measure for a design is built up from the individual measures for each criterion through a preference combination rule. The goal of the optimal design process is to obtain a design that has the highest overall evaluation measure - an optimization problem.

Genetic algorithms are stochastic optimization methods that are based on evolutionary theory. They provide the exploration power necessary to explore high-dimensional search spaces to seek these optimal solutions. Two special genetic algorithms, hGA and vGA, are presented here for continuous and discrete optimization problems, respectively.

The methodology is demonstrated with several examples involving the design of truss and frame systems. These examples are solved by using the proposed hGA and vGA.

The steady-state response of multidegree-of-freedom systems with a spatially localized nonlinearity

This thesis is concerned with the dynamic response of a General multidegree-of-freedom linear system with a one dimensional nonlinear constraint attached between two points. The nonlinear constraint is assumed to consist of rate-independent conservative and hysteretic nonlinearities and may contain a viscous dissipation element. The dynamic equations for general spatial and temporal load distributions are derived for both continuous and discrete systems. The method of equivalent linearization is used to develop equations which govern the approximate steady-state response to generally distributed loads with harmonic time dependence.

The qualitative response behavior of a class of undamped chainlike structures with a nonlinear terminal constraint is investigated. It is shown that the hardening or softening behavior of every resonance curve is similar and is determined by the properties of the constraint. Also examined are the number and location of resonance curves, the boundedness of the forced response, the loci of response extrema, and other characteristics of the response. Particular consideration is given to the dependence of the response characteristics on the properties of the linear system, the nonlinear constraint, and the load distribution.

Numerical examples of the approximate steady-state response of three structural systems are presented. These examples illustrate the application of the formulation and qualitative theory. It is shown that disconnected response curves and response curves which cross are obtained for base excitation of a uniform shear beam with a cubic spring foundation. Disconnected response curves are also obtained for the steady-state response to a concentrated load of a chainlike structure with a hardening hysteretic constraint. The accuracy of the approximate response curves is investigated.

Nonstationary response of structures and its application to earthquake engineering

This thesis presents a simplified state-variable method to solve for the nonstationary response of linear MDOF systems subjected to a modulated stationary excitation in both time and frequency domains. The resulting covariance matrix and evolutionary spectral density matrix of the response may be expressed as a product of a constant system matrix and a time-dependent matrix, the latter can be explicitly evaluated for most envelopes currently prevailing in engineering. The stationary correlation matrix of the response may be found by taking the limit of the covariance response when a unit step envelope is used. The reliability analysis can then be performed based on the first two moments of the response obtained.

The method presented facilitates obtaining explicit solutions for general linear MDOF systems and is flexible enough to be applied to different stochastic models of excitation such as the stationary models, modulated stationary models, filtered stationary models, and filtered modulated stationary models and their stochastic equivalents including the random pulse train model, filtered shot noise, and some ARMA models in earthquake engineering. This approach may also be readily incorporated into finite element codes for random vibration analysis of linear structures.

A set of explicit solutions for the response of simple linear structures subjected to modulated white noise earthquake models with four different envelopes are presented as illustration. In addition, the method has been applied to three selected topics of interest in earthquake engineering, namely, nonstationary analysis of primary-secondary systems with classical or nonclassical dampings, soil layer response and related structural reliability analysis, and the effect of the vertical components on seismic performance of structures. For all the three cases, explicit solutions are obtained, dynamic characteristics of structures are investigated, and some suggestions are given for aseismic design of structures.

Earthquake response of steel braces and braced steel frames

This thesis consists of three parts. Chapter 2 deals with the dynamic buckling behavior of steel braces under cyclic axial end displacement. Braces under such a loading condition belong to a class of "acceleration magnifying" structural components, in which a small motion at the loading points can cause large internal acceleration and inertia. This member-level inertia is frequently ignored in current studies of braces and braced structures. This chapter shows that, under certain conditions, the inclusion of the member-level inertia can lead to brace behavior fundamentally different from that predicted by the quasi-static method. This result is to have significance in the correct use of the quasi-static, pseudo-dynamic and static condensation methods in the simulation of braces or braced structures under dynamic loading. The strain magnitude and distribution in the braces are also studied in this chapter.

Chapter 3 examines the effect of column uplift on the earthquake response of braced steel frames and explores the feasibility of flexible column-base anchoring. It is found that fully anchored braced-bay columns can induce extremely large internal forces in the braced-bay members and their connections, thus increasing the risk of failures observed in recent earthquakes. Flexible braced-bay column anchoring can significantly reduce the braced bay member force, but at the same time also introduces large story drift and column uplift. The pounding of an uplifting column with its support can result in very high compressive axial force.

Chapter 4 conducts a comparative study on the effectiveness of a proposed non-buckling bracing system and several conventional bracing systems. The non-buckling bracing system eliminates buckling and thus can be composed of small individual braces distributed widely in a structure to reduce bracing force concentration and increase redundancy. The elimination of buckling results in a significantly more effective bracing system compared with the conventional bracing systems. Among the conventional bracing systems, bracing configurations and end conditions for the bracing members affect the effectiveness.

The studies in Chapter 3 and Chapter 4 also indicate that code-designed conventionally braced steel frames can experience unacceptably severe response under the strong ground motions recorded during the recent Northridge and Kobe earthquakes.

Three-dimensional nonlinear inelastic analysis of steel moment-frame buildings damaged by earthquake excitations

The Northridge earthquake of January 17, 1994, highlighted the two previously known problems of premature fracturing of connections and the damaging capabilities of near-source ground motion pulses. Large ground motions had not been experienced in a city with tall steel moment-frame buildings before. Some steel buildings exhibited fracture of welded connections or other types of structural degradation.

A sophisticated three-dimensional nonlinear inelastic program is developed that can accurately model many nonlinear properties commonly ignored or approximated in other programs. The program can assess and predict severely inelastic response of steel buildings due to strong ground motions, including collapse.

Three-dimensional fiber and segment discretization of elements is presented in this work. This element and its two-dimensional counterpart are capable of modeling various geometric and material nonlinearities such as moment amplification, spread of plasticity and connection fracture. In addition to introducing a three-dimensional element discretization, this work presents three-dimensional constraints that limit the number of equations required to solve various three-dimensional problems consisting of intersecting planar frames.

Two buildings damaged in the Northridge earthquake are investigated to verify the ability of the program to match the level of response and the extent and location of damage measured. The program is used to predict response of larger near-source ground motions using the properties determined from the matched response.

A third building is studied to assess three-dimensional effects on a realistic irregular building in the inelastic range of response considering earthquake directivity. Damage levels are observed to be significantly affected by directivity and torsional response.

Several strong recorded ground motions clearly exceed code-based levels. Properly designed buildings can have drifts exceeding code specified levels due to these ground motions. The strongest ground motions caused collapse if fracture was included in the model. Near-source ground displacement pulses can cause columns to yield prior to weaker-designed beams. Damage in tall buildings correlates better with peak-to-peak displacements than with peak-to-peak accelerations.

Dynamic response of tall buildings shows that higher mode response can cause more damage than first mode response. Leaking of energy between modes in conjunction with damage can cause torsional behavior that is not anticipated.

Various response parameters are used for all three buildings to determine what correlations can be made for inelastic building response. Damage levels can be dramatically different based on the inelastic model used. Damage does not correlate well with several common response parameters.

Realistic modeling of material properties and structural behavior is of great value for understanding the performance of tall buildings due to earthquake excitations.

Dynamic response of structures with uncertain parameters

This thesis presents a technique for obtaining the response of linear structural systems with parameter uncertainties subjected to either deterministic or random excitation. The parameter uncertainties are modeled as random variables or random fields, and are assumed to be time-independent. The new method is an extension of the deterministic finite element method to the space of random functions.

First, the general formulation of the method is developed, in the case where the excitation is deterministic in time. Next, the application of this formulation to systems satisfying the one-dimensional wave equation with uncertainty in their physical properties is described. A particular physical conceptualization of this equation is chosen for study, and some engineering applications are discussed in both an earthquake ground motion and a structural context.

Finally, the formulation of the new method is extended to include cases where the excitation is random in time. Application of this formulation to the random response of a primary-secondary system is described. It is found that parameter uncertainties can have a strong effect on the system response characteristics.

Studies of response to earthquake ground motion

A study is made of the accuracy of electronic digital computer calculations of ground displacement and response spectra from strong-motion earthquake accelerograms. This involves an investigation of methods of the preparatory reduction of accelerograms into a form useful for the digital computation and of the accuracy of subsequent digital calculations. Various checks are made for both the ground displacement and response spectra results, and it is concluded that the main errors are those involved in digitizing the original record. Differences resulting from various investigators digitizing the same experimental record may become as large as 100% of the maximum computed ground displacements. The spread of the results of ground displacement calculations is greater than that of the response spectra calculations. Standardized methods of adjustment and calculation are recommended, to minimize such errors.

Studies are made of the spread of response spectral values about their mean. The distribution is investigated experimentally by Monte Carlo techniques using an electric analog system with white noise excitation, and histograms are presented indicating the dependence of the distribution on the damping and period of the structure. Approximate distributions are obtained analytically by confirming and extending existing results with accurate digital computer calculations. A comparison of the experimental and analytical approaches indicates good agreement for low damping values where the approximations are valid. A family of distribution curves to be used in conjunction with existing average spectra is presented. The combination of analog and digital computations used with Monte Carlo techniques is a promising approach to the statistical problems of earthquake engineering.

Methods of analysis of very small earthquake ground motion records obtained simultaneously at different sites are discussed. The advantages of Fourier spectrum analysis for certain types of studies and methods of calculation of Fourier spectra are presented. The digitizing and analysis of several earthquake records is described and checks are made of the dependence of results on digitizing procedure, earthquake duration and integration step length. Possible dangers of a direct ratio comparison of Fourier spectra curves are pointed out and the necessity for some type of smoothing procedure before comparison is established. A standard method of analysis for the study of comparative ground motion at different sites is recommended.

Earthquake geology of Myanmar

This thesis describes the active structures of Myanmar and its surrounding regions, and the earthquake geology of the major active structures. Such investigation is needed urgently for this rapidly developing country that has suffered from destructive earthquakes in its long history. To archive a better understanding of the regional active tectonics and the seismic potential in the future, we utilized a global digital elevation model and optical satellite imagery to describe geomorphologic evidence for the principal neotectonic features of the western half of the Southeast Asia mainland. Our investigation shows three distinct active structural systems that accommodate the oblique convergence between the Indian plate and Southeast Asia and the extrusion of Asian territory around the eastern syntaxis of the Himalayan mountain range. Each of these active deformation belts can be further separated into several neotectonic domains, in which structures show distinctive active behaviors from one to another.

In order to better understand the behaviors of active structures, we focused on the active characteristics of the right-lateral Sagaing fault and the oblique subducting northern Sunda megathrust in the second part of this thesis. The detailed geomorphic investigations along these two major plate-interface faults revealed the recent slip behavior of these structures, and plausible recurrence intervals of major seismic events. We also documented the ground deformation of the 2011 Tarlay earthquake in remote eastern Myanmar from remote sensing datasets and post-earthquake field investigations. The field observation and the remote sensing measurements of surface ruptures of the Tarlay earthquake are the first study of this kind in the Myanmar region.

New applications that come from extending seismic networks into buildings

This thesis describes engineering applications that come from extending seismic networks into building structures. The proposed applications will benefit the data from the newly developed crowd-sourced seismic networks which are composed of low-cost accelerometers. An overview of the Community Seismic Network and the earthquake detection method are addressed. In the structural array components of crowd-sourced seismic networks, there may be instances in which a single seismometer is the only data source that is available from a building. A simple prismatic Timoshenko beam model with soil-structure interaction (SSI) is developed to approximate mode shapes of buildings using natural frequency ratios. A closed form solution with complete vibration modes is derived. In addition, a new method to rapidly estimate total displacement response of a building based on limited observational data, in some cases from a single seismometer, is presented. The total response of a building is modeled by the combination of the initial vibrating motion due to an upward traveling wave, and the subsequent motion as the low-frequency resonant mode response. Furthermore, the expected shaking intensities in tall buildings will be significantly different from that on the ground during earthquakes. Examples are included to estimate the characteristics of shaking that can be expected in mid-rise to high-rise buildings. Development of engineering applications (e.g., human comfort prediction and automated elevator control) for earthquake early warning system using probabilistic framework and statistical learning technique is addressed.