Probabilistic Imaging and Dynamic Modeling of Earthquake Source Processes

Investigation of large, destructive earthquakes is challenged by their infrequent occurrence and the remote nature of geophysical observations. This thesis sheds light on the source processes of large earthquakes from two perspectives: robust and quantitative observational constraints through Bayesian inference for earthquake source models, and physical insights on the interconnections of seismic and aseismic fault behavior from elastodynamic modeling of earthquake ruptures and aseismic processes.

To constrain the shallow deformation during megathrust events, we develop semi-analytical and numerical Bayesian approaches to explore the maximum resolution of the tsunami data, with a focus on incorporating the uncertainty in the forward modeling. These methodologies are then applied to invert for the coseismic seafloor displacement field in the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake using near-field tsunami waveforms and for the coseismic fault slip models in the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake with complementary tsunami and geodetic observations. From posterior estimates of model parameters and their uncertainties, we are able to quantitatively constrain the near-trench profiles of seafloor displacement and fault slip. Similar characteristic patterns emerge during both events, featuring the peak of uplift near the edge of the accretionary wedge with a decay toward the trench axis, with implications for fault failure and tsunamigenic mechanisms of megathrust earthquakes.

To understand the behavior of earthquakes at the base of the seismogenic zone on continental strike-slip faults, we simulate the interactions of dynamic earthquake rupture, aseismic slip, and heterogeneity in rate-and-state fault models coupled with shear heating. Our study explains the long-standing enigma of seismic quiescence on major fault segments known to have hosted large earthquakes by deeper penetration of large earthquakes below the seismogenic zone, where mature faults have well-localized creeping extensions. This conclusion is supported by the simulated relationship between seismicity and large earthquakes as well as by observations from recent large events. We also use the modeling to connect the geodetic observables of fault locking with the behavior of seismicity in numerical models, investigating how a combination of interseismic geodetic and seismological estimates could constrain the locked-creeping transition of faults and potentially their co- and post-seismic behavior.

I. Synthetic Studies Toward the Total Synthesis of Polycyclic Natural Products – Communesin F, Perophoramidine and Ineleganolide. II. Nickel Catalyzed Intramolecular C–O Bond Formation

Expedient synthetic approaches to the highly functionalized polycyclic alkaloids communesin F and perophoramidine are described using a unified approach featuring a key decarboxylative allylic alkylation to access a crucial and highly congested 3,3-disubstituted oxindole. Described are two distinct, stereoselective alkylations that produce structures in divergent diastereomeric series possessing the critical vicinal all-carbon quaternary centers needed for each synthesis. Synthetic studies toward these challenging core structures have revealed a number of unanticipated modes of reactivity inherent to these complex alkaloid scaffolds. Finally, a previously unknown mild and efficient deprotection protocol for the o-nitrobenzyl group is disclosed – this serendipitous discovery permitted a concise endgame for the formal syntheses of both communesin F and perophoramidine.

In addition, the atroposelective synthesis of PINAP ligands has been accomplished via a palladium-catalyzed C–P coupling process through dynamic kinetic resolution. These catalytic conditions allow access to a wide variety of alkoxy- and benzyloxy-substituted PINAP ligands in high enantiomeric excess.

An efficient and exceptionally mild intramolecular nickel-catalyzed carbon–oxygen bond-forming reaction between vinyl halides and primary, secondary, and tertiary alcohols has been achieved. This operationally simple method allows direct access to cyclic vinyl ethers in high yields in a single step.

Finally, synthetic studies toward polycyclic ineleganolide are described. The entire fragmented carbon framework has been constructed from this work. Highly (Z)-selective olefination was achieved by the method by the Ando group.