Optimal procurement and contracting with research and development

Government procurement of a new good or service is a process that usually includes basic research, development, and production. Empirical evidences indicate that investments in research and development (R and D) before production are significant in many defense procurements. Thus, optimal procurement policy should not be only to select the most efficient producer, but also to induce the contractors to design the best product and to develop the best technology. It is difficult to apply the current economic theory of optimal procurement and contracting, which has emphasized production, but ignored R and D, to many cases of procurement.

In this thesis, I provide basic models of both R and D and production in the procurement process where a number of firms invest in private R and D and compete for a government contract. R and D is modeled as a stochastic cost-reduction process. The government is considered both as a profit-maximizer and a procurement cost minimizer. In comparison to the literature, the following results derived from my models are significant. First, R and D matters in procurement contracting. When offering the optimal contract the government will be better off if it correctly takes into account costly private R and D investment. Second, competition matters. The optimal contract and the total equilibrium R and D expenditures vary with the number of firms. The government usually does not prefer infinite competition among firms. Instead, it prefers free entry of firms. Third, under a R and D technology with the constant marginal returns-to-scale, it is socially optimal to have only one firm to conduct all of the R and D and production. Fourth, in an independent private values environment with risk-neutral firms, an informed government should select one of four standard auction procedures with an appropriate announced reserve price, acting as if it does not have any private information.

An economic approach to consumer product ratings

In three essays we examine user-generated product ratings with aggregation. While recommendation systems have been studied extensively, this simple type of recommendation system has been neglected, despite its prevalence in the field. We develop a novel theoretical model of user-generated ratings. This model improves upon previous work in three ways: it considers rational agents and allows them to abstain from rating when rating is costly; it incorporates rating aggregation (such as averaging ratings); and it considers the effect on rating strategies of multiple simultaneous raters. In the first essay we provide a partial characterization of equilibrium behavior. In the second essay we test this theoretical model in laboratory, and in the third we apply established behavioral models to the data generated in the lab. This study provides clues to the prevalence of extreme-valued ratings in field implementations. We show theoretically that in equilibrium, ratings distributions do not represent the value distributions of sincere ratings. Indeed, we show that if rating strategies follow a set of regularity conditions, then in equilibrium the rate at which players participate is increasing in the extremity of agents' valuations of the product. This theoretical prediction is realized in the lab. We also find that human subjects show a disproportionate predilection for sincere rating, and that when they do send insincere ratings, they are almost always in the direction of exaggeration. Both sincere and exaggerated ratings occur with great frequency despite the fact that such rating strategies are not in subjects' best interest. We therefore apply the behavioral concepts of quantal response equilibrium (QRE) and cursed equilibrium (CE) to the experimental data. Together, these theories explain the data significantly better than does a theory of rational, Bayesian behavior -- accurately predicting key comparative statics. However, the theories fail to predict the high rates of sincerity, and it is clear that a better theory is needed.

I. Application of multi-Regge theory to production processes. II. High energy model for proton-proton scattering

This dissertation consists of two parts. The first part presents an explicit procedure for applying multi-Regge theory to production processes. As an illustrative example, the case of three body final states is developed in detail, both with respect to kinematics and multi-Regge dynamics. Next, the experimental consistency of the multi-Regge hypothesis is tested in a specific high energy reaction; the hypothesis is shown to provide a good qualitative fit to the data. In addition, the results demonstrate a severe suppression of double Pomeranchon exchange, and show the coupling of two "Reggeons" to an external particle to be strongly damped as the particle's mass increases. Finally, with the use of two body Regge parameters, order of magnitude estimates of the multi-Regge cross section for various reactions are given.

The second part presents a diffraction model for high energy proton-proton scattering. This model developed by Chou and Yang assumes high energy elastic scattering results from absorption of the incident wave into the many available inelastic channels, with the absorption proportional to the amount of interpenetrating hadronic matter. The assumption that the hadronic matter distribution is proportional to the charge distribution relates the scattering amplitude for pp scattering to the proton form factor. The Chou-Yang model with the empirical proton form factor as input is then applied to calculate a high energy, fixed momentum transfer limit for the scattering cross section, This limiting cross section exhibits the same "dip" or "break" structure indicated in present experiments, but falls significantly below them in magnitude. Finally, possible spin dependence is introduced through a weak spin-orbit type term which gives rather good agreement with pp polarization data.

Probabilistic robust control : theory and applications

In this work, the development of a probabilistic approach to robust control is motivated by structural control applications in civil engineering. Often in civil structural applications, a system's performance is specified in terms of its reliability. In addition, the model and input uncertainty for the system may be described most appropriately using probabilistic or "soft" bounds on the model and input sets. The probabilistic robust control methodology contrasts with existing H∞/μ robust control methodologies that do not use probability information for the model and input uncertainty sets, yielding only the guaranteed (i.e., "worst-case") system performance, and no information about the system's probable performance which would be of interest to civil engineers.

The design objective for the probabilistic robust controller is to maximize the reliability of the uncertain structure/controller system for a probabilistically-described uncertain excitation. The robust performance is computed for a set of possible models by weighting the conditional performance probability for a particular model by the probability of that model, then integrating over the set of possible models. This integration is accomplished efficiently using an asymptotic approximation. The probable performance can be optimized numerically over the class of allowable controllers to find the optimal controller. Also, if structural response data becomes available from a controlled structure, its probable performance can easily be updated using Bayes's Theorem to update the probability distribution over the set of possible models. An updated optimal controller can then be produced, if desired, by following the original procedure. Thus, the probabilistic framework integrates system identification and robust control in a natural manner.

The probabilistic robust control methodology is applied to two systems in this thesis. The first is a high-fidelity computer model of a benchmark structural control laboratory experiment. For this application, uncertainty in the input model only is considered. The probabilistic control design minimizes the failure probability of the benchmark system while remaining robust with respect to the input model uncertainty. The performance of an optimal low-order controller compares favorably with higher-order controllers for the same benchmark system which are based on other approaches. The second application is to the Caltech Flexible Structure, which is a light-weight aluminum truss structure actuated by three voice coil actuators. A controller is designed to minimize the failure probability for a nominal model of this system. Furthermore, the method for updating the model-based performance calculation given new response data from the system is illustrated.

Kinetic theory of normal quantum fluids

Close to equilibrium, a normal Bose or Fermi fluid can be described by an exact kinetic equation whose kernel is nonlocal in space and time. The general expression derived for the kernel is evaluated to second order in the interparticle potential. The result is a wavevector- and frequency-dependent generalization of the linear Uehling-Uhlenbeck kernel with the Born approximation cross section.

The theory is formulated in terms of second-quantized phase space operators whose equilibrium averages are the n-particle Wigner distribution functions. Convenient expressions for the commutators and anticommutators of the phase space operators are obtained. The two-particle equilibrium distribution function is analyzed in terms of momentum-dependent quantum generalizations of the classical pair distribution function h(k) and direct correlation function c(k). The kinetic equation is presented as the equation of motion of a two -particle correlation function, the phase space density-density anticommutator, and is derived by a formal closure of the quantum BBGKY hierarchy. An alternative derivation using a projection operator is also given. It is shown that the method used for approximating the kernel by a second order expansion preserves all the sum rules to the same order, and that the second-order kernel satisfies the appropriate positivity and symmetry conditions.

Approximate theory for the flow through a cascade of cambered airfoils

An approximate theory for steady irrotational flow through a cascade of thin cambered airfoils is developed. Isolated thin airfoils have only slight camber is most applications, and the well known methods that replace the source and vorticity distributions of the curved camber line by similar distributions on the straight chord line are adequate. In cascades, however, the camber is usually appreciable, and significant errors are introduced if the vorticity and source distributions on the camber line are approximated by the same distribution on the chord line.

The calculation of the flow field becomes very clumsy in practice if the vorticity and source distributions are not confined to a straight line. A new method is proposed and investigated; in this method, at each point on the camber line, the vorticity and sources are assumed to be distributed along a straight line tangent to the camber line at that point, and corrections are determined to account for the deviation of the actual camber line from the tangent line. Hence, the basic calculation for the cambered airfoils is reduced to the simpler calculation of the straight line airfoils, with the equivalent straight line airfoils changing from point to point.

The results of the approximate method are compared with numerical solutions for cambers as high as 25 per cent of the chord. The leaving angles of flow are predicted quite well, even at this high value of the camber. The present method also gives the functional relationship between the exit angle and the other parameters such as airfoil shape and cascade geometry.

Essays in Behavioral Decision Theory

This thesis studies decision making under uncertainty and how economic agents respond to information. The classic model of subjective expected utility and Bayesian updating is often at odds with empirical and experimental results; people exhibit systematic biases in information processing and often exhibit aversion to ambiguity. The aim of this work is to develop simple models that capture observed biases and study their economic implications.

In the first chapter I present an axiomatic model of cognitive dissonance, in which an agent's response to information explicitly depends upon past actions. I introduce novel behavioral axioms and derive a representation in which beliefs are directionally updated. The agent twists the information and overweights states in which his past actions provide a higher payoff. I then characterize two special cases of the representation. In the first case, the agent distorts the likelihood ratio of two states by a function of the utility values of the previous action in those states. In the second case, the agent's posterior beliefs are a convex combination of the Bayesian belief and the one which maximizes the conditional value of the previous action. Within the second case a unique parameter captures the agent's sensitivity to dissonance, and I characterize a way to compare sensitivity to dissonance between individuals. Lastly, I develop several simple applications and show that cognitive dissonance contributes to the equity premium and price volatility, asymmetric reaction to news, and belief polarization.

The second chapter characterizes a decision maker with sticky beliefs. That is, a decision maker who does not update enough in response to information, where enough means as a Bayesian decision maker would. This chapter provides axiomatic foundations for sticky beliefs by weakening the standard axioms of dynamic consistency and consequentialism. I derive a representation in which updated beliefs are a convex combination of the prior and the Bayesian posterior. A unique parameter captures the weight on the prior and is interpreted as the agent's measure of belief stickiness or conservatism bias. This parameter is endogenously identified from preferences and is easily elicited from experimental data.

The third chapter deals with updating in the face of ambiguity, using the framework of Gilboa and Schmeidler. There is no consensus on the correct way way to update a set of priors. Current methods either do not allow a decision maker to make an inference about her priors or require an extreme level of inference. In this chapter I propose and axiomatize a general model of updating a set of priors. A decision maker who updates her beliefs in accordance with the model can be thought of as one that chooses a threshold that is used to determine whether a prior is plausible, given some observation. She retains the plausible priors and applies Bayes' rule. This model includes generalized Bayesian updating and maximum likelihood updating as special cases.

A theory of strong and weak scintillations with applications to astrophysics

The propagation of waves in an extended, irregular medium is studied under the "quasi-optics" and the "Markov random process" approximations. Under these assumptions, a Fokker-Planck equation satisfied by the characteristic functional of the random wave field is derived. A complete set of the moment equations with different transverse coordinates and different wavenumbers is then obtained from the characteristic functional. The derivation does not require Gaussian statistics of the random medium and the result can be applied to the time-dependent problem. We then solve the moment equations for the phase correlation function, angular broadening, temporal pulse smearing, intensity correlation function, and the probability distribution of the random waves. The necessary and sufficient conditions for strong scintillation are also given.

We also consider the problem of diffraction of waves by a random, phase-changing screen. The intensity correlation function is solved in the whole Fresnel diffraction region and the temporal pulse broadening function is derived rigorously from the wave equation.

The method of smooth perturbations is applied to interplanetary scintillations. We formulate and calculate the effects of the solar-wind velocity fluctuations on the observed intensity power spectrum and on the ratio of the observed "pattern" velocity and the true velocity of the solar wind in the three-dimensional spherical model. The r.m.s. solar-wind velocity fluctuations are found to be ~200 km/sec in the region about 20 solar radii from the Sun.

We then interpret the observed interstellar scintillation data using the theories derived under the Markov approximation, which are also valid for the strong scintillation. We find that the Kolmogorov power-law spectrum with an outer scale of 10 to 100 pc fits the scintillation data and that the ambient averaged electron density in the interstellar medium is about 0.025 cm^-3. It is also found that there exists a region of strong electron density fluctuation with thickness ~10 pc and mean electron density ~7 cm^-3 between the PSR 0833-45 pulsar and the earth.

Essays in revealed preference theory and behavioral economics

Time, risk, and attention are all integral to economic decision making. The aim of this work is to understand those key components of decision making using a variety of approaches: providing axiomatic characterizations to investigate time discounting, generating measures of visual attention to infer consumers' intentions, and examining data from unique field settings.

Chapter 2, co-authored with Federico Echenique and Kota Saito, presents the first revealed-preference characterizations of exponentially-discounted utility model and its generalizations. My characterizations provide non-parametric revealed-preference tests. I apply the tests to data from a recent experiment, and find that the axiomatization delivers new insights on a dataset that had been analyzed by traditional parametric methods.

Chapter 3, co-authored with Min Jeong Kang and Colin Camerer, investigates whether "pre-choice" measures of visual attention improve in prediction of consumers' purchase intentions. We measure participants' visual attention using eyetracking or mousetracking while they make hypothetical as well as real purchase decisions. I find that different patterns of visual attention are associated with hypothetical and real decisions. I then demonstrate that including information on visual attention improves prediction of purchase decisions when attention is measured with mousetracking.

Chapter 4 investigates individuals' attitudes towards risk in a high-stakes environment using data from a TV game show, Jeopardy!. I first quantify players' subjective beliefs about answering questions correctly. Using those beliefs in estimation, I find that the representative player is risk averse. I then find that trailing players tend to wager more than "folk" strategies that are known among the community of contestants and fans, and this tendency is related to their confidence. I also find gender differences: male players take more risk than female players, and even more so when they are competing against two other male players.

Chapter 5, co-authored with Colin Camerer, investigates the dynamics of the favorite-longshot bias (FLB) using data on horse race betting from an online exchange that allows bettors to trade "in-play." I find that probabilistic forecasts implied by market prices before start of the races are well-calibrated, but the degree of FLB increases significantly as the events approach toward the end.

On the distribution of the signs of the conjugates of the cyclotomic units in the maximal real subfield of the qth cyclotomic field, q A prime

Let F = Ǫ(ζ + ζ ^–1) be the maximal real subfield of the cyclotomic field Ǫ(ζ) where ζ is a primitive qth root of unity and q is an odd rational prime. The numbers u₁=-1, u_k=(ζ^k-ζ^-k)/(ζ-ζ^-1), k=2,…,p, p=(q-1)/2, are units in F and are called the cyclotomic units. In this thesis the sign distribution of the conjugates in F of the cyclotomic units is studied.

Let G(F/Ǫ) denote the Galoi's group of F over Ǫ, and let V denote the units in F. For each σϵ G(F/Ǫ) and μϵV define a mapping sgn_σ: V→GF(2) by sgn_σ(μ) = 1 iff σ(μ) ˂ 0 and sgn_σ(μ) = 0 iff σ(μ) ˃ 0. Let {σ₁, ... , σ_p} be a fixed ordering of G(F/Ǫ). The matrix M_q=(sgn_σj(v_i) ) , i, j = 1, ... , p is called the matrix of cyclotomic signatures. The rank of this matrix determines the sign distribution of the conjugates of the cyclotomic units. The matrix of cyclotomic signatures is associated with an ideal in the ring GF(2) [x] / (x^p+ 1) in such a way that the rank of the matrix equals the GF(2)-dimension of the ideal. It is shown that if p = (q-1)/ 2 is a prime and if 2 is a primitive root mod p, then M_q is non-singular. Also let p be arbitrary, let ℓ be a primitive root mod q and let L = {i | 0 ≤ i ≤ p-1, the least positive residue of defined by ℓⁱ mod q is greater than p}. Let H_q(x) ϵ GF(2)[x] be defined by H_q(x) = g. c. d. ((Σ xⁱ/I ϵ L) (x+1) + 1, x^p + 1). It is shown that the rank of M_q equals the difference p - degree H_q(x).

Further results are obtained by using the reciprocity theorem of class field theory. The reciprocity maps for a certain abelian extension of F and for the infinite primes in F are associated with the signs of conjugates. The product formula for the reciprocity maps is used to associate the signs of conjugates with the reciprocity maps at the primes which lie above (2). The case when (2) is a prime in F is studied in detail. Let T denote the group of totally positive units in F. Let U be the group generated by the cyclotomic units. Assume that (2) is a prime in F and that p is odd. Let F₍₂₎ denote the completion of F at (2) and let V₍₂₎ denote the units in F₍₂₎. The following statements are shown to be equivalent. 1) The matrix of cyclotomic signatures is non-singular. 2) U∩T = U². 3) U∩F²₍₂₎ = U². 4) V₍₂₎/ V₍₂₎² = ˂v₁ V₍₂₎²˃ ʘ…ʘ˂v_p V₍₂₎²˃ ʘ ˂3V₍₂₎²˃.

The rank of M_q was computed for 5≤q≤929 and the results appear in tables. On the basis of these results and additional calculations the following conjecture is made: If q and p = (q -1)/ 2 are both primes, then M_q is non-singular.

High frequency wave propagation in the earth: theory and observation

The wave-theoretical analysis of acoustic and elastic waves refracted by a spherical boundary across which both velocity and density increase abruptly and thence either increase or decrease continuously with depth is formulated in terms of the general problem of waves generated at a steady point source and scattered by a radially heterogeneous spherical body. A displacement potential representation is used for the elastic problem that results in high frequency decoupling of P-SV motion in a spherically symmetric, radially heterogeneous medium. Through the application of an earth-flattening transformation on the radial solution and the Watson transform on the sum over eigenfunctions, the solution to the spherical problem for high frequencies is expressed as a Weyl integral for the corresponding half-space problem in which the effect of boundary curvature maps into an effective positive velocity gradient. The results of both analytical and numerical evaluation of this integral can be summarized as follows for body waves in the crust and upper mantle:

1) In the special case of a critical velocity gradient (a gradient equal and opposite to the effective curvature gradient), the critically refracted wave reduces to the classical head wave for flat, homogeneous layers.

2) For gradients more negative than critical, the amplitude of the critically refracted wave decays more rapidly with distance than the classical head wave.

3) For positive, null, and gradients less negative than critical, the amplitude of the critically refracted wave decays less rapidly with distance than the classical head wave, and at sufficiently large distances, the refracted wave can be adequately described in terms of ray-theoretical diving waves. At intermediate distances from the critical point, the spectral amplitude of the refracted wave is scalloped due to multiple diving wave interference.

These theoretical results applied to published amplitude data for P-waves refracted by the major crustal and upper mantle horizons (the Pg, P*, and Pn travel-time branches) suggest that the 'granitic' upper crust, the 'basaltic' lower crust, and the mantle lid all have negative or near-critical velocity gradients in the tectonically active western United States. On the other hand, the corresponding horizons in the stable eastern United States appear to have null or slightly positive velocity gradients. The distribution of negative and positive velocity gradients correlates closely with high heat flow in tectonic regions and normal heat flow in stable regions. The velocity gradients inferred from the amplitude data are generally consistent with those inferred from ultrasonic measurements of the effects of temperature and pressure on crustal and mantle rocks and probable geothermal gradients. A notable exception is the strong positive velocity gradient in the mantle lid beneath the eastern United States (2 x 10^-3 sec^-1), which appears to require a compositional gradient to counter the effect of even a small geothermal gradient.

New seismic-refraction data were recorded along a 800 km profile extending due south from the Canadian border across the Columbia Plateau into eastern Oregon. The source for the seismic waves was a series of 20 high-energy chemical explosions detonated by the Canadian government in Greenbush Lake, British Columbia. The first arrivals recorded along this profile are on the Pn travel-time branch. In northern Washington and central Oregon their travel time is described by T = Δ/8.0 + 7.7 sec, but in the Columbia Plateau the Pn arrivals are as much as 0.9 sec early with respect to this line. An interpretation of these Pn arrivals together with later crustal arrivals suggest that the crust under the Columbia Plateau is thinner by about 10 km and has a higher average P-wave velocity than the 35-km-thick, 62-km/sec crust under the granitic-metamorphic terrain of northern Washington. A tentative interpretation of later arrivals recorded beyond 500 km from the shots suggests that a thin 8.4-km/sec horizon may be present in the upper mantle beneath the Columbia Plateau and that this horizon may form the lid to a pronounced low-velocity zone extending to a depth of about 140 km.