Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

Essays on economics networks

This thesis belongs to the growing field of economic networks. In particular, we develop three essays in which we study the problem of bargaining, discrete choice representation, and pricing in the context of networked markets. Despite analyzing very different problems, the three essays share the common feature of making use of a network representation to describe the market of interest.

In Chapter 1 we present an analysis of bargaining in networked markets. We make two contributions. First, we characterize market equilibria in a bargaining model, and find that players' equilibrium payoffs coincide with their degree of centrality in the network, as measured by Bonacich's centrality measure. This characterization allows us to map, in a simple way, network structures into market equilibrium outcomes, so that payoffs dispersion in networked markets is driven by players' network positions. Second, we show that the market equilibrium for our model converges to the so called eigenvector centrality measure. We show that the economic condition for reaching convergence is that the players' discount factor goes to one. In particular, we show how the discount factor, the matching technology, and the network structure interact in a very particular way in order to see the eigenvector centrality as the limiting case of our market equilibrium.

We point out that the eigenvector approach is a way of finding the most central or relevant players in terms of the “global” structure of the network, and to pay less attention to patterns that are more “local”. Mathematically, the eigenvector centrality captures the relevance of players in the bargaining process, using the eigenvector associated to the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix of a given network. Thus our result may be viewed as an economic justification of the eigenvector approach in the context of bargaining in networked markets.

As an application, we analyze the special case of seller-buyer networks, showing how our framework may be useful for analyzing price dispersion as a function of sellers and buyers' network positions.

Finally, in Chapter 3 we study the problem of price competition and free entry in networked markets subject to congestion effects. In many environments, such as communication networks in which network flows are allocated, or transportation networks in which traffic is directed through the underlying road architecture, congestion plays an important role. In particular, we consider a network with multiple origins and a common destination node, where each link is owned by a firm that sets prices in order to maximize profits, whereas users want to minimize the total cost they face, which is given by the congestion cost plus the prices set by firms. In this environment, we introduce the notion of Markovian traffic equilibrium to establish the existence and uniqueness of a pure strategy price equilibrium, without assuming that the demand functions are concave nor imposing particular functional forms for the latency functions. We derive explicit conditions to guarantee existence and uniqueness of equilibria. Given this existence and uniqueness result, we apply our framework to study entry decisions and welfare, and establish that in congested markets with free entry, the number of firms exceeds the social optimum.

Controlling wave propagation through nonlinear engineered granular systems

We study the fundamental dynamic behavior of a special class of ordered granular systems in order to design new, structured materials with unique physical properties. The dynamic properties of granular systems are dictated by the nonlinear, Hertzian, potential in compression and zero tensile strength resulting from the discrete material structure. Engineering the underlying particle arrangement of granular systems allows for unique dynamic properties, not observed in natural, disordered granular media. While extensive studies on 1D granular crystals have suggested their usefulness for a variety of engineering applications, considerably less attention has been given to higher-dimensional systems. The extension of these studies in higher dimensions could enable the discovery of richer physical phenomena not possible in 1D, such as spatial redirection and anisotropic energy trapping. We present experiments, numerical simulation (based on a discrete particle model), and in some cases theoretical predictions for several engineered granular systems, studying the effects of particle arrangement on the highly nonlinear transient wave propagation to develop means for controlling the wave propagation pathways. The first component of this thesis studies the stress wave propagation resulting from a localized impulsive loading for three different 2D particle lattice structures: square, centered square, and hexagonal granular crystals. By varying the lattice structure, we observe a wide range of properties for the propagating stress waves: quasi-1D solitary wave propagation, fully 2D wave propagation with tunable wave front shapes, and 2D pulsed wave propagation. Additionally the effects of weak disorder, inevitably present in real granular systems, are investigated. The second half of this thesis studies the solitary wave propagation through 2D and 3D ordered networks of granular chains, reducing the effective density compared to granular crystals by selectively placing wave guiding chains to control the acoustic wave transmission. The rapid wave front amplitude decay exhibited by these granular networks makes them highly attractive for impact mitigation applications. The agreement between experiments, numerical simulations, and applicable theoretical predictions validates the wave guiding capabilities of these engineered granular crystals and networks and opens a wide range of possibilities for the realization of increasingly complex granular material design.

Nonlinear oscillations in discrete and continuous systems

The first thesis topic is a perturbation method for resonantly coupled nonlinear oscillators. By successive near-identity transformations of the original equations, one obtains new equations with simple structure that describe the long time evolution of the motion. This technique is related to two-timing in that secular terms are suppressed in the transformation equations. The method has some important advantages. Appropriate time scalings are generated naturally by the method, and don't need to be guessed as in two-timing. Furthermore, by continuing the procedure to higher order, one extends (formally) the time scale of valid approximation. Examples illustrate these claims. Using this method, we investigate resonance in conservative, non-conservative and time dependent problems. Each example is chosen to highlight a certain aspect of the method.

The second thesis topic concerns the coupling of nonlinear chemical oscillators. The first problem is the propagation of chemical waves of an oscillating reaction in a diffusive medium. Using two-timing, we derive a nonlinear equation that determines how spatial variations in the phase of the oscillations evolves in time. This result is the key to understanding the propagation of chemical waves. In particular, we use it to account for certain experimental observations on the Belusov-Zhabotinskii reaction.

Next, we analyse the interaction between a pair of coupled chemical oscillators. This time, we derive an equation for the phase shift, which measures how much the oscillators are out of phase. This result is the key to understanding M. Marek's and I. Stuchl's results on coupled reactor systems. In particular, our model accounts for synchronization and its bifurcation into rhythm splitting.

Finally, we analyse large systems of coupled chemical oscillators. Using a continuum approximation, we demonstrate mechanisms that cause auto-synchronization in such systems.

Asymptotic scaling in the two-dimensional O(3) Nonlinear sigma model: a Monte Carlo study on parallel computers

We investigate the 2d O(3) model with the standard action by Monte Carlo simulation at couplings β up to 2.05. We measure the energy density, mass gap and susceptibility of the model, and gather high statistics on lattices of size L ≤ 1024 using the Floating Point Systems T-series vector hypercube and the Thinking Machines Corp.'s Connection Machine 2. Asymptotic scaling does not appear to set in for this action, even at β = 2.10, where the correlation length is 420. We observe a 20% difference between our estimate m/Λ^─_(Ms) = 3.52(6) at this β and the recent exact analytical result . We use the overrelaxation algorithm interleaved with Metropolis updates and show that decorrelation time scales with the correlation length and the number of overrelaxation steps per sweep. We determine its effective dynamical critical exponent to be z' = 1.079(10); thus critical slowing down is reduced significantly for this local algorithm that is vectorizable and parallelizable.

We also use the cluster Monte Carlo algorithms, which are non-local Monte Carlo update schemes which can greatly increase the efficiency of computer simulations of spin models. The major computational task in these algorithms is connected component labeling, to identify clusters of connected sites on a lattice. We have devised some new SIMD component labeling algorithms, and implemented them on the Connection Machine. We investigate their performance when applied to the cluster update of the two dimensional Ising spin model.

Finally we use a Monte Carlo Renormalization Group method to directly measure the couplings of block Hamiltonians at different blocking levels. For the usual averaging block transformation we confirm the renormalized trajectory (RT) observed by Okawa. For another improved probabilistic block transformation we find the RT, showing that it is much closer to the Standard Action. We then use this block transformation to obtain the discrete β-function of the model which we compare to the perturbative result. We do not see convergence, except when using a rescaled coupling β_E to effectively resum the series. For the latter case we see agreement for m/ Λ^─_(Ms) at , β = 2.14, 2.26, 2.38 and 2.50. To three loops m/Λ^─_(Ms) = 3.047(35) at β = 2.50, which is very close to the exact value m/ Λ^─_(Ms) = 2.943. Our last point at β = 2.62 disagrees with this estimate however.

Baryon number violation beyond the standard model

This thesis describes simple extensions of the standard model with new sources of baryon number violation but no proton decay. The motivation for constructing such theories comes from the shortcomings of the standard model to explain the generation of baryon asymmetry in the universe, and from the absence of experimental evidence for proton decay. However, lack of any direct evidence for baryon number violation in general puts strong bounds on the naturalness of some of those models and favors theories with suppressed baryon number violation below the TeV scale. The initial part of the thesis concentrates on investigating models containing new scalars responsible for baryon number breaking. A model with new color sextet scalars is analyzed in more detail. Apart from generating cosmological baryon number, it gives nontrivial predictions for the neutron-antineutron oscillations, the electric dipole moment of the neutron, and neutral meson mixing. The second model discussed in the thesis contains a new scalar leptoquark. Although this model predicts mainly lepton flavor violation and a nonzero electric dipole moment of the electron, it includes, in its original form, baryon number violating nonrenormalizable dimension-five operators triggering proton decay. Imposing an appropriate discrete symmetry forbids such operators. Finally, a supersymmetric model with gauged baryon and lepton numbers is proposed. It provides a natural explanation for proton stability and predicts lepton number violating processes below the supersymmetry breaking scale, which can be tested at the Large Hadron Collider. The dark matter candidate in this model carries baryon number and can be searched for in direct detection experiments as well. The thesis is completed by constructing and briefly discussing a minimal extension of the standard model with gauged baryon, lepton, and flavor symmetries.

Baryon and lepton numbers in particle physics beyond the standard model

The works presented in this thesis explore a variety of extensions of the standard model of particle physics which are motivated by baryon number (B) and lepton number (L), or some combination thereof. In the standard model, both baryon number and lepton number are accidental global symmetries violated only by non-perturbative weak effects, though the combination B-L is exactly conserved. Although there is currently no evidence for considering these symmetries as fundamental, there are strong phenomenological bounds restricting the existence of new physics violating B or L. In particular, there are strict limits on the lifetime of the proton whose decay would violate baryon number by one unit and lepton number by an odd number of units.

The first paper included in this thesis explores some of the simplest possible extensions of the standard model in which baryon number is violated, but the proton does not decay as a result. The second paper extends this analysis to explore models in which baryon number is conserved, but lepton flavor violation is present. Special attention is given to the processes of μ to e conversion and μ → eγ which are bound by existing experimental limits and relevant to future experiments.

The final two papers explore extensions of the minimal supersymmetric standard model (MSSM) in which both baryon number and lepton number, or the combination B-L, are elevated to the status of being spontaneously broken local symmetries. These models have a rich phenomenology including new collider signatures, stable dark matter candidates, and alternatives to the discrete R-parity symmetry usually built into the MSSM in order to protect against baryon and lepton number violating processes.

Value Estimation and Comparison in Multi-Attribute Choice

The following work explores the processes individuals utilize when making multi-attribute choices. With the exception of extremely simple or familiar choices, most decisions we face can be classified as multi-attribute choices. In order to evaluate and make choices in such an environment, we must be able to estimate and weight the particular attributes of an option. Hence, better understanding the mechanisms involved in this process is an important step for economists and psychologists. For example, when choosing between two meals that differ in taste and nutrition, what are the mechanisms that allow us to estimate and then weight attributes when constructing value? Furthermore, how can these mechanisms be influenced by variables such as attention or common physiological states, like hunger?

In order to investigate these and similar questions, we use a combination of choice and attentional data, where the attentional data was collected by recording eye movements as individuals made decisions. Chapter 1 designs and tests a neuroeconomic model of multi-attribute choice that makes predictions about choices, response time, and how these variables are correlated with attention. Chapter 2 applies the ideas in this model to intertemporal decision-making, and finds that attention causally affects discount rates. Chapter 3 explores how hunger, a common physiological state, alters the mechanisms we utilize as we make simple decisions about foods.

Full and Model-Reduced Structure-Preserving Simulation of Incompressible Fluids

This thesis outlines the construction of several types of structured integrators for incompressible fluids. We first present a vorticity integrator, which is the Hamiltonian counterpart of the existing Lagrangian-based fluid integrator. We next present a model-reduced variational Eulerian integrator for incompressible fluids, which combines the efficiency gains of dimension reduction, the qualitative robustness to coarse spatial and temporal resolutions of geometric integrators, and the simplicity of homogenized boundary conditions on regular grids to deal with arbitrarily-shaped domains with sub-grid accuracy.

Both these numerical methods involve approximating the Lie group of volume-preserving diffeomorphisms by a finite-dimensional Lie-group and then restricting the resulting variational principle by means of a non-holonomic constraint. Advantages and limitations of this discretization method will be outlined. It will be seen that these derivation techniques are unable to yield symplectic integrators, but that energy conservation is easily obtained, as is a discretized version of Kelvin's circulation theorem.

Finally, we outline the basis of a spectral discrete exterior calculus, which may be a useful element in producing structured numerical methods for fluids in the future.