Earthquakes of the Nepal Himalaya : towards a physical model of the seismic cycle

Home to hundreds of millions of souls and land of excessiveness, the Himalaya is also the locus of a unique seismicity whose scope and peculiarities still remain to this day somewhat mysterious. Having claimed the lives of kings, or turned ancient timeworn cities into heaps of rubbles and ruins, earthquakes eerily inhabit Nepalese folk tales with the fatalistic message that nothing lasts forever. From a scientific point of view as much as from a human perspective, solving the mysteries of Himalayan seismicity thus represents a challenge of prime importance. Documenting geodetic strain across the Nepal Himalaya with various GPS and leveling data, we show that unlike other subduction zones that exhibit a heterogeneous and patchy coupling pattern along strike, the last hundred kilometers of the Main Himalayan Thrust fault, or MHT, appear to be uniformly locked, devoid of any of the “creeping barriers” that traditionally ward off the propagation of large events. The approximately 20 mm/yr of reckoned convergence across the Himalaya matching previously established estimates of the secular deformation at the front of the arc, the slip accumulated at depth has to somehow elastically propagate all the way to the surface at some point. And yet, neither large events from the past nor currently recorded microseismicity nearly compensate for the massive moment deficit that quietly builds up under the giant mountains. Along with this large unbalanced moment deficit, the uncommonly homogeneous coupling pattern on the MHT raises the question of whether or not the locked portion of the MHT can rupture all at once in a giant earthquake. Univocally answering this question appears contingent on the still elusive estimate of the magnitude of the largest possible earthquake in the Himalaya, and requires tight constraints on local fault properties. What makes the Himalaya enigmatic also makes it the potential source of an incredible wealth of information, and we exploit some of the oddities of Himalayan seismicity in an effort to improve the understanding of earthquake physics and cipher out the properties of the MHT. Thanks to the Himalaya, the Indo-Gangetic plain is deluged each year under a tremendous amount of water during the annual summer monsoon that collects and bears down on the Indian plate enough to pull it away from the Eurasian plate slightly, temporarily relieving a small portion of the stress mounting on the MHT. As the rainwater evaporates in the dry winter season, the plate rebounds and tension is increased back on the fault. Interestingly, the mild waggle of stress induced by the monsoon rains is about the same size as that from solid-Earth tides which gently tug at the planets solid layers, but whereas changes in earthquake frequency correspond with the annually occurring monsoon, there is no such correlation with Earth tides, which oscillate back-and-forth twice a day. We therefore investigate the general response of the creeping and seismogenic parts of MHT to periodic stresses in order to link these observations to physical parameters. First, the response of the creeping part of the MHT is analyzed with a simple spring-and-slider system bearing rate-strengthening rheology, and we show that at the transition with the locked zone, where the friction becomes near velocity neutral, the response of the slip rate may be amplified at some periods, which values are analytically related to the physical parameters of the problem. Such predictions therefore hold the potential of constraining fault properties on the MHT, but still await observational counterparts to be applied, as nothing indicates that the variations of seismicity rate on the locked part of the MHT are the direct expressions of variations of the slip rate on its creeping part, and no variations of the slip rate have been singled out from the GPS measurements to this day. When shifting to the locked seismogenic part of the MHT, spring-and-slider models with rate-weakening rheology are insufficient to explain the contrasted responses of the seismicity to the periodic loads that tides and monsoon both place on the MHT. Instead, we resort to numerical simulations using the Boundary Integral CYCLes of Earthquakes algorithm and examine the response of a 2D finite fault embedded with a rate-weakening patch to harmonic stress perturbations of various periods. We show that such simulations are able to reproduce results consistent with a gradual amplification of sensitivity as the perturbing period get larger, up to a critical period corresponding to the characteristic time of evolution of the seismicity in response to a step-like perturbation of stress. This increase of sensitivity was not reproduced by simple 1D-spring-slider systems, probably because of the complexity of the nucleation process, reproduced only by 2D-fault models. When the nucleation zone is close to its critical unstable size, its growth becomes highly sensitive to any external perturbations and the timings of produced events may therefore find themselves highly affected. A fully analytical framework has yet to be developed and further work is needed to fully describe the behavior of the fault in terms of physical parameters, which will likely provide the keys to deduce constitutive properties of the MHT from seismological observations.

Constraints on the carbon cycle and climate during the early evolution of animals

One of the greatest challenges in science lies in disentangling causality in complex, coupled systems. This is illustrated no better than in the dynamic interplay between the Earth and life. The early evolution and diversification of animals occurred within a backdrop of global change, yet reconstructing the potential role of the environment in this evolutionary transition is challenging. In the 200 million years from the end-Cryogenian to the Ordovician, enigmatic Ediacaran fauna explored body plans, animals diversified and began to biomineralize, forever changing the ocean's chemical cycles, and the biological community in shallow marine ecosystems transitioned from a microbial one to an animal one.

In the following dissertation, a multi-faceted approach combining macro- and micro-scale analyses is presented that draws on the sedimentology, geochemistry and paleontology of the rocks that span this transition to better constrain the potential environmental changes during this interval.

In Chapter 1, the potential of clumped isotope thermometry in deep time is explored by assessing the importance of burial and diagenesis on the thermometer. Eocene- to Precambrian-aged carbonates from the Sultanate of Oman were analyzed from current burial depths of 350-5850 meters. Two end-member styles of diagenesis independent of burial depth were observed.

Chapters 2, 3 and 4 explore the fallibility of the Ediacaran carbon isotope record and aspects of the sedimentology and geochemistry of the rocks preserving the largest negative carbon isotope excursion on record---the Shuram Excursion. Chapter 2 documents the importance of temperature, fluid composition and mineralogy on the delta 18-O min record and interrogates the bulk trace metal signal. Chapter 3 explores the spatial variability in delta 13-C recorded in the transgressive Johnnie Oolite and finds a north-to-south trend recording the onset of the excursion. Chapter 4 investigates the nature of seafloor precipitation during this excursion and more broadly. We document the potential importance of microbial respiratory reactions on the carbonate chemistry of the sediment-water interface through time.

Chapter 5 investigates the latest Precambrian sedimentary record in carbonates from the Sultanate of Oman, including how delta 13-C and delta 34-S CAS vary across depositional and depth gradients. A new model for the correlation of the Buah and Ara formations across Oman is presented. Isotopic results indicate delta 13-C varies with relative eustatic change and delta 34-S CAS may vary in absolute magnitude across Oman.

Chapter 6 investigates the secular rise in delta 18-Omin in the early Paleozoic by using clumped isotope geochemistry on calcitic and phosphatic fossils from the Cambrian and Ordovician. Results do not indicate extreme delta 18-O seawater depletion and instead suggest warmer equatorial temperatures across the early Paleozoic.

Extracting material response from simple mechanical tests on hardening-softening-hardening viscoplastic solids

Compliant foams are usually characterized by a wide range of desirable mechanical properties. These properties include viscoelasticity at different temperatures, energy absorption, recoverability under cyclic loading, impact resistance, and thermal, electrical, acoustic and radiation-resistance. Some foams contain nano-sized features and are used in small-scale devices. This implies that the characteristic dimensions of foams span multiple length scales, rendering modeling their mechanical properties difficult. Continuum mechanics-based models capture some salient experimental features like the linear elastic regime, followed by non-linear plateau stress regime. However, they lack mesostructural physical details. This makes them incapable of accurately predicting local peaks in stress and strain distributions, which significantly affect the deformation paths. Atomistic methods are capable of capturing the physical origins of deformation at smaller scales, but suffer from impractical computational intensity. Capturing deformation at the so-called meso-scale, which is capable of describing the phenomenon at a continuum level, but with some physical insights, requires developing new theoretical approaches.

A fundamental question that motivates the modeling of foams is ‘how to extract the intrinsic material response from simple mechanical test data, such as stress vs. strain response?’ A 3D model was developed to simulate the mechanical response of foam-type materials. The novelty of this model includes unique features such as the hardening-softening-hardening material response, strain rate-dependence, and plastically compressible solids with plastic non-normality. Suggestive links from atomistic simulations of foams were borrowed to formulate a physically informed hardening material input function. Motivated by a model that qualitatively captured the response of foam-type vertically aligned carbon nanotube (VACNT) pillars under uniaxial compression [2011,“Analysis of Uniaxial Compression of Vertically Aligned Carbon Nanotubes,” J. Mech.Phys. Solids, 59, pp. 2227–2237, Erratum 60, 1753–1756 (2012)], the property space exploration was advanced to three types of simple mechanical tests: 1) uniaxial compression, 2) uniaxial tension, and 3) nanoindentation with a conical and a flat-punch tip. The simulations attempt to explain some of the salient features in experimental data, like
1) The initial linear elastic response.
2) One or more nonlinear instabilities, yielding, and hardening.

The model-inherent relationships between the material properties and the overall stress-strain behavior were validated against the available experimental data. The material properties include the gradient in stiffness along the height, plastic and elastic compressibility, and hardening. Each of these tests was evaluated in terms of their efficiency in extracting material properties. The uniaxial simulation results proved to be a combination of structural and material influences. Out of all deformation paths, flat-punch indentation proved to be superior since it is the most sensitive in capturing the material properties.

Iridium and rhodium analogues of the Shilov cycle catalyst; and the investigation and applications of the Reduction-Coupled Oxo Activation (ROA) mechanistic motif towards alkane upgrading

This dissertation will cover several disparate topics, with the overarching theme centering on the investigation of organometallic C-H activation and hydrocarbon transformation and upgrading. Chapters 2 and 3 discuss iridium and rhodium analogues of the Shilov cycle catalyst for methane to methanol oxidation, and Chapter 4 on the recently discovered ROA mechanistic motif in catalysts for various alkane partial oxidation reactions. In addition, Chapter 5 discusses the mechanism of nickel pyridine bisoxazoline Negishi catalysts for asymmetric and stereoconvergent C-C coupling, and the appendices discuss smaller projects on rhodium H/D exchange catalysts and DFT method benchmarking.

Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

Part I. Synchronization of the cell division cycle of HeLa cells in suspension cultures. Part II. Studies on chromosomal proteins of HeLa cells during the cell division cycle

Part I

These studies investigate the potential of single and double treatments with either 5-fluorodeoxyuridine of excess thymidine to induce cell division synchrony in suspension cultures of HeLa cells. The patterns of nucleic acid synthesis and cell proliferation have been analyzed in cultures thus synchronized. Several changes in cell population during long incubation with 5-fluorodeoxyuridine or excess thymidine are also described. These results are subjected to detailed evaluation in terms of the degree and quality of synchrony finally achieved.

Part II

Histones and non-histone proteins associated with interphase and metaphase chromosomes of HeLa cells have been qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed. Histones were fractionated by chromatography on Amberlite CG-50 and further characterized by analytical disc electrophoresis and amino acid analysis of each chromatographic fraction. It is concluded that histones of HeLa cells are comprised of only a small number of major components and that these components are homologous to those of other higher organisms. Of all the histones, arginine-rich histone III alone contains cysteine and can polymerize through formation of intermolecular disulfide bridges between histone III monomers.

A detailed comparison by chromatography and disc electrophoresis established that interphase and metaphase histones are made up of similar components. However, certain quantitative differences in proportions of different histones of interphase and metaphase cells are reported. Indirect evidence indicates that a certain proportion of metaphase histone III is polymerized through intermolecular disulfide links, whereas interphase histone III occurs mainly in the monomeric form.

Metaphase chromosomes are associated with an additional acid-soluble protein fraction which is absent from interphase chromosomes. All of these additional acid-soluble proteins of metaphase chromosomes are shown to be non-histones and it is concluded that the histone/DNA ratio is identical in interphase and metaphase chromosomes. The bulk of acid-soluble non-histone proteins of metaphase chromosomes were found to be polymerized through disulfide bridges; corresponding interphase non-histone proteins displayed no evidence of similar polymerization.

The factors responsible for the condensed configuration and metabolic inactivity of metaphase chromosomes are discussed in light of these findings.

The relationship between histone and DNA synthesis in nondividing differentiated chicken erythrocyte cells and in rapidly dividing undifferentiated HeLa cells is also investigated. Of all the histones, only arginine-rich histones are synthesized in mature erythrocytes. Histone synthesis in HeLa cells was studied in both unsynchronized and synchronized cultures. In HeLa cells, only part of the synthesis of all histone fractions is dependent on concurrent DNA synthesis, whereas all histones are synthesized in varying degrees even in the absence of DNA synthesis.

Stationary Eddies and Zonal Variations of the Global Hydrological Cycle in a Changing Climate

This thesis advances our physical understanding of the sensitivity of the hydrological cycle to global warming. Specifically, it focuses on changes in the longitudinal (zonal) variation of precipitation minus evaporation (P - E), which is predominantly controlled by planetary-scale stationary eddies. By studying idealized general circulation model (GCM) experiments with zonally varying boundary conditions, this thesis examines the mechanisms controlling the strength of stationary-eddy circulations and their role in the hydrological cycle. The overarching goal of this research is to understand the cause of changes in regional P - E with global warming. An understanding of such changes can be useful for impact studies focusing on water availability, ecosystem management, and flood risk.

Based on a moisture-budget analysis of ERA-Interim data, we establish an approximation for zonally anomalous P - E in terms of surface moisture content and stationary-eddy vertical motion in the lower troposphere. Part of the success of this approximation comes from our finding that transient-eddy moisture fluxes partially cancel the effect of stationary-eddy moisture advection, allowing divergent circulations to dominate the moisture budget. The lower-tropospheric vertical motion is related to horizontal motion in stationary eddies by Sverdrup and Ekman balance. These moisture- and vorticity-budget balances also hold in idealized and comprehensive GCM simulations across a range of climates.

By examining climate changes in the idealized and comprehensive GCM simulations, we are able to show the utility of the vertical motion P - E approximation for splitting changes in zonally anomalous P - E into thermodynamic and dynamic components. Shifts in divergent stationary-eddy circulations dominate changes in zonally anomalous P - E. This limits the local utility of the "wet gets wetter, dry gets drier” idea, where existing P - E patterns are amplified with warming by the increase in atmospheric moisture content, with atmospheric circulations held fixed. The increase in atmospheric moisture content manifests instead in an increase in the amplitude of the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle as measured by the zonal variance of P - E. However, dynamic changes, particularly the slowdown of divergent stationary-eddy circulations, limit the strengthening of the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle. In certain idealized cases, dynamic changes are even strong enough to reverse the tendency towards "wet gets wetter, dry gets drier” with warming.

Motivated by the importance of stationary-eddy vertical velocities in the moisture budget analysis, we examine controls on the amplitude of stationary eddies across a wide range of climates in an idealized GCM with simple topographic and ocean-heating zonal asymmetries. An analysis of the thermodynamic equation in the vicinity of topographic forcing reveals the importance of on-slope surface winds, the midlatitude isentropic slope, and latent heating in setting the amplitude of stationary waves. The response of stationary eddies to climate change is determined primarily by the strength of zonal surface winds hitting the mountain. The sensitivity of stationary-eddies to this surface forcing increases with climate change as the slope of midlatitude isentropes decreases. However, latent heating also plays an important role in damping the stationary-eddy response, and this damping becomes stronger with warming as the atmospheric moisture content increases. We find that the response of tropical overturning circulations forced by ocean heat-flux convergence is described by changes in the vertical structure of moist static energy and deep convection. This is used to derive simple scalings for the Walker circulation strength that capture the monotonic decrease with warming found in our idealized simulations.

Through the work of this thesis, the advances made in understanding the amplitude of stationary-waves in a changing climate can be directly applied to better understand and predict changes in the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle.

Circadian clock mutants of Drosophila melanogaster

Three mutants of Drosophila melanogaster have been isolated in which the free-running period of the circadian eclosion rhythm and the adult locomotor activity rhythm is affected. One mutant is arrhythmic, another has a short period of 19 hours, and the third has a long period of 28 hours. The mutants retain their phenotypes over the temperature range 18° to 25° C. All three mutants map near the tip of the X chromosome (distal to the centromere). By deficiency mapping, the short-period mutation has been localized to the 3B1-2 region. Complementation tests show that all three mutations affect the same functional gene.

Analysis of activity rhythms of individual mosaic flies indicates that the site of action of the short-period mutation is probably located in the head of the fly. A few activity patterns of split-head and mixed-head mosaics appear to possess both mutant and heterozygous components, suggesting that the fly head may contain two complete clocks capable of maintaining their periodicities independently.

The short-period mutation affects both the duration of the light-insensitive part of the oscillation and the degree to which the clock can be reset during the light-sensitive part of the oscillation.

Both the short-period and long-period mutant eclosion rhythms can be entrained to a period of 24 hours by a 12:12 light-dark cycle having a light intensity at least two orders of magnitude greater than that required to entrain the normal rhythm. The arrhythmic mutant does not entrain under these conditions. In the presence of a temperature cycle, however, the arrhythmic mutant does entrain, but its rhythm damps out when the temperature cycle is removed.

Evidence is presented that Pittendrigh's two-oscillator model for the clock in D. pseudoobscura applies to D. melanogaster as well. The three clock mutations primarily affect the light- sensitive driving oscillator. The arrhythmic mutation appears to have eliminated the driving oscillator while leaving the temperature-sensitive driven oscillator relatively intact.