The political econmoy of state government debt : an analysis of constitutional limitations (1961-1990)

Over the past decade, scholarly interest concerning the use of limitations to constrain government spending and taxing has noticeably increased. The call for constitutional restrictions can be credited, in part, to Washington's apparent inability to legislate any significant reductions in government expenditures or in the size of the national debt. At the present time, the federal government is far from instituting any constitutional limitations on spending or borrowing; however, the states have incorporated many controls on revenues and expenditures, the oldest being strictures on full faith and credit borrowing. This dissertations examines the efficacy of these restrictions on borrowing across the states (excluding Alaska) for the period dating from 1961 to 1990 and also studies the limitations on taxing and spending synonymous with the Tax Revolt.

We include socio-economic information in our calculations to control for factors other than the institutional variables that affect state borrowing levels. Our results show that certain constitutional restrictions (in particular, the referendum requirement and the dollar debt limit) are more effective than others. The apparent ineffectiveness of other limitations, such as the flexible debt limit, seem related to the bindingness of the limitations in at least half of the cases. Other variables, such as crime rates, number of schoolage children, and state personal income do affect the levels of full faith and credit debt, but not as strongly as the limitations. While some degree of circumvention can be detected (the amount of full faith and credit debt does inversely affect the levels of nonguaranteed debt), it is so small when compared to the effectiveness of the constitutional restrictions that it is almost negligible. The examination of the tax revolt era limitations yielded quite similar conclusions, with the additional fact that constitutional restrictions appear more binding than statutory ones. Our research demonstrates that constitutional limitations on borrowing can be applied effectively to constrain excessive borrowing, but caution must be used. The efficacy of these restrictions decrease dramatically as the number of loopholes increase.

Awakening a sleeping giant: The riddle of Latino political participation

For some time now, the Latino voice has been gradually gaining strength in American politics, particularly in such states as California, Florida, Illinois, New York, and Texas, where large numbers of Latino immigrants have settled and large numbers of electoral votes are at stake. Yet the issues public officials in these states espouse and the laws they enact often do not coincide with the interests and preferences of Latinos. The fact that Latinos in California and elsewhere have not been able to influence the political agenda in a way that is commensurate with their numbers may reflect their failure to participate fully in the political process by first registering to vote and then consistently turning out on election day to cast their ballots.

To understand Latino voting behavior, I first examine Latino political participation in California during the ten general elections of the 1980s and 1990s, seeking to understand what percentage of the eligible Latino population registers to vote, with what political party they register, how many registered Latinos to go the polls on election day, and what factors might increase their participation in politics. To ensure that my findings are not unique to California, I also consider Latino voter registration and turnout in Texas for the five general elections of the 1990s and compare these results with my California findings.

I offer a new approach to studying Latino political participation in which I rely on county-level aggregate data, rather than on individual survey data, and employ the ecological inference method of generalized bounds. I calculate and compare Latino and white voting-age populations, registration rates, turnout rates, and party affiliation rates for California's fifty-eight counties. Then, in a secondary grouped logit analysis, I consider the factors that influence these Latino and white registration, turnout, and party affiliation rates.

I find that California Latinos register and turn out at substantially lower rates than do whites and that these rates are more volatile than those of whites. I find that Latino registration is motivated predominantly by age and education, with older and more educated Latinos being more likely to register. Motor voter legislation, which was passed to ease and simplify the registration process, has not encouraged Latino registration . I find that turnout among California's Latino voters is influenced primarily by issues, income, educational attainment, and the size of the Spanish-speaking communities in which they reside. Although language skills may be an obstacle to political participation for an individual, the number of Spanish-speaking households in a community does not encourage or discourage registration but may encourage turnout, suggesting that cultural and linguistic assimilation may not be the entire answer.

With regard to party identification, I find that Democrats can expect a steady Latino political identification rate between 50 and 60 percent, while Republicans attract 20 to 30 percent of Latino registrants. I find that education and income are the dominant factors in determining Latino political party identification, which appears to be no more volatile than that of the larger electorate.

Next, when I consider registration and turnout in Texas, I find that Latino registration rates are nearly equal to those of whites but that Texas Latino turnout rates are volatile and substantially lower than those of whites.

Low turnout rates among Latinos and the volatility of these rates may explain why Latinos in California and Texas have had little influence on the political agenda even though their numbers are large and increasing. Simply put, the voices of Latinos are little heard in the halls of government because they do not turn out consistently to cast their votes on election day.

While these findings suggest that there may not be any short-term or quick fixes to Latino participation, they also suggest that Latinos should be encouraged to participate more fully in the political process and that additional education may be one means of achieving this goal. Candidates should speak more directly to the issues that concern Latinos. Political parties should view Latinos as crossover voters rather than as potential converts. In other words, if Latinos were "a sleeping giant," they may now be a still-drowsy leviathan waiting to be wooed by either party's persuasive political messages and relevant issues.

The structure and petrology of the Johnny Lyon Hills area, Cochise County, Arizona

The Johnny Lyon Hills area is located in Cochise County in southeastern Arizona. The rocks of the area include a central core of Lower pre-Cambrian igneous and metamorphic rocks surrounded by a complexly faulted and tilted section of Upper pre-Cambrian and Paleozoic strata. Limited exposures of Mesozoic and Tertiary sedimentary and volcanic rocks are present at the north end of the map area. Late Tertiary and Quaternary alluvium almost completely surrounds and overlaps upon the older rocks.

The older pre-Cambrian rocks include a section of more than 9000 feet of generally moderately metamorphosed graywackes, slates and conglomerates of the Pinal schist injected in zones by somewhat younger rnyolite sheets. The original sediments were deposited in a geosyncline whose extent probably included large parts of Arizona, New Mexico and west Texas. During the Mazatzal Revolution the Pinal schist was deformed into northeast-trending, steeply dipping and plunging structures and the entire local section was overturned steeply toward the northwest. The pre-Cambrian Johnny Lyon granodiorite was emplaced as a large epi-tectonic pluton which modified the metamorphic character of part of the Pinal schist. Larsen method determinations indicate an age of about 715 million years for this rock, which is about the minimum age compatible with the geologic relations.

The Laramide orogeny produced numerous major thrust faults in the area involving all rocks older than and including the Lower Cretaceous Bisbee group. Major compression from the southwest and subsequent superimposed thrusting from the southeast and east are indicated. Minimum thrust displacements of more than a mile are clear and the probable displacements are of much greater magnitude. The crystalline core behaved as a single structural unit and probably caused important local divergences from the regional pattern of northeast-trending compressive forces. The massif was rotated as a unit 40 degrees or more about a northwest-trending axis overturning the pre-Cambrian fold axes in the Pinal schist.

Swarms of Late Cretaceous(?) or Early Tertiary(?) lamprophyric dikes cross the Laramide structures and are probably related to the large Texas Canyon stock several miles southeast of the map area. Intermittent high angle faulting, both older and younger than the dikes, has continued since the Laramide orogeny and has been superimposed on the older structures. This steep faulting combined with the fundamental northwesterly Laramide structural grain to produce the northwesterly trends characteristic of the mountain ridges and valleys of the area.

An economic air pollution control model-application : photochemical smog in Los Angeles County in 1975

An economic air pollution control model, which determines the least cost of reaching various air quality levels, is formulated. The model takes the form of a general, nonlinear, mathematical programming problem. Primary contaminant emission levels are the independent variables. The objective function is the cost of attaining various emission levels and is to be minimized subject to constraints that given air quality levels be attained.

The model is applied to a simplified statement of the photochemical smog problem in Los Angeles County in 1975 with emissions specified by a two-dimensional vector, total reactive hydrocarbon, (RHC), and nitrogen oxide, (NO_x), emissions. Air quality, also two-dimensional, is measured by the expected number of days per year that nitrogen dioxide, (NO₂), and mid-day ozone, (O₃), exceed standards in Central Los Angeles.

The minimum cost of reaching various emission levels is found by a linear programming model. The base or "uncontrolled" emission levels are those that will exist in 1975 with the present new car control program and with the degree of stationary source control existing in 1971. Controls, basically "add-on devices", are considered here for used cars, aircraft, and existing stationary sources. It is found that with these added controls, Los Angeles County emission levels [(1300 tons/day RHC, 1000 tons /day NO_x) in 1969] and [(670 tons/day RHC, 790 tons/day NO_x) at the base 1975 level], can be reduced to 260 tons/day RHC (minimum RHC program) and 460 tons/day NO_x (minimum NO_x program).

"Phenomenological" or statistical air quality models provide the relationship between air quality and emissions. These models estimate the relationship by using atmospheric monitoring data taken at one (yearly) emission level and by using certain simple physical assumptions, (e. g., that emissions are reduced proportionately at all points in space and time). For NO₂, (concentrations assumed proportional to NO_x emissions), it is found that standard violations in Central Los Angeles, (55 in 1969), can be reduced to 25, 5, and 0 days per year by controlling emissions to 800, 550, and 300 tons /day, respectively. A probabilistic model reveals that RHC control is much more effective than NO_x control in reducing Central Los Angeles ozone. The 150 days per year ozone violations in 1969 can be reduced to 75, 30, 10, and 0 days per year by abating RHC emissions to 700, 450, 300, and 150 tons/day, respectively, (at the 1969 NO_x emission level).

The control cost-emission level and air quality-emission level relationships are combined in a graphical solution of the complete model to find the cost of various air quality levels. Best possible air quality levels with the controls considered here are 8 O₃ and 10 NO₂ violations per year (minimum ozone program) or 25 O₃ and 3 NO₂ violations per year (minimum NO₂ program) with an annualized cost of $230,000,000 (above the estimated $150,000,000 per year for the new car control program for Los Angeles County motor vehicles in 1975).

The Voting Rights Act, Shelby County, and Redistricting: Improving Estimates of Racially Polarized Voting in a Multiple-Election Context

The Supreme Court’s decision in Shelby County has severely limited the power of the Voting Rights Act. I argue that Congressional attempts to pass a new coverage formula are unlikely to gain the necessary Republican support. Instead, I propose a new strategy that takes a “carrot and stick” approach. As the stick, I suggest amending Section 3 to eliminate the need to prove that discrimination was intentional. For the carrot, I envision a competitive grant program similar to the highly successful Race to the Top education grants. I argue that this plan could pass the currently divided Congress.

Without Congressional action, Section 2 is more important than ever before. A successful Section 2 suit requires evidence that voting in the jurisdiction is racially polarized. Accurately and objectively assessing the level of polarization has been and continues to be a challenge for experts. Existing ecological inference methods require estimating polarization levels in individual elections. This is a problem because the Courts want to see a history of polarization across elections.

I propose a new 2-step method to estimate racially polarized voting in a multi-election context. The procedure builds upon the Rosen, Jiang, King, and Tanner (2001) multinomial-Dirichlet model. After obtaining election-specific estimates, I suggest regressing those results on election-specific variables, namely candidate quality, incumbency, and ethnicity of the minority candidate of choice. This allows researchers to estimate the baseline level of support for candidates of choice and test whether the ethnicity of the candidates affected how voters cast their ballots.

Geology of the Pacoima Area, Los Angeles County, California

The Pacoima area is located on an isolated hill in the northeast section of the San Fernando, the northeast portion of the Pacoima Quadrangle, Los Angeles County, California. Within it are exposed more than 2300 feet of Tertiary rocks, which comprise three units of Middle Miocene (?) age, and approximately 950 feet of Jurassic (?) granite basement. The formations are characterized by their mode of occurrence, marine and terrestial origin, diverse lithology, and structural features.

The basement complex is composed of intrusive granite, small masses of granodiorite and a granodiorite gneiss with the development of schistosity in sections. During the long period of erosion of the metamorphics, the granitic rocks were exposed and may have provided clastic constituents for the overlying formations.

As a result of rapid sedimentation in a transitional environment, the Middle Miocene Twin Peaks formation was laid down unconformably on the granite. This formation is essentially a large thinning bed of gray to buff pebble and cobble conglomerate grading to coarse yellow sandstone. The contact of conglomerate and granite is characterized by its faulted and depositional nature.

Beds of extrusive andesite, basalt porphyry, compact vesicular amygdaloidal basalts, andesite breccia, interbedded feldspathic sands and clays of terrestial origin, and mudflow breccia comprise the Pacoima formation which overlies the Twin Peaks formation unconformably. A transgressing shallow sea accompanied settling of the region and initiated deposition of fine clastic sediments.

The marine Topanga (?) formation is composed of brown to gray coarse sandstone grading into interbedded buff sandstones and gray shales. Intrusions of rhyolitedacite and ash beds mark continued but sporatic volcanism during this period.

The area mapped represents an arch in the Tertiary sediments. Forces that produced the uplift of the granite structural high created stresses that were relieved by jointing and faulting. Vertical and horizontal movement along these faults has displaced beds, offset contacts and complicated their structure. Uplift and erosion have exposed the present sequence of beds which dip gently to the northeast. The isolated hill is believed to be in an early stage of maturity.