Characterization of diverse megathrust fault behavior related to seismic supercycles, Mentawai Islands, Sumatra

Long paleoseismic histories are necessary for understanding the full range of behavior of faults, as the most destructive events often have recurrence intervals longer than local recorded history. The Sunda megathrust, the interface along which the Australian plate subducts beneath Southeast Asia, provides an ideal natural laboratory for determining a detailed paleoseismic history over many seismic cycles. The outer-arc islands above the seismogenic portion of the megathrust cyclically rise and subside in response to processes on the underlying megathrust, providing uncommonly good illumination of megathrust behavior. Furthermore, the growth histories of coral microatolls, which record tectonic uplift and subsidence via relative sea level, can be used to investigate the detailed coseismic and interseismic deformation patterns. One particularly interesting area is the Mentawai segment of the megathrust, which has been shown to characteristically fail in a series of ruptures over decades, rather than a single end-to-end rupture. This behavior has been termed a seismic “supercycle.” Prior to the current rupture sequence, which began in 2007, the segment previously ruptured during the 14th century, the late 16th to late 17th century, and most recently during historical earthquakes in 1797 and 1833. In this study, we examine each of these previous supercycles in turn.

First, we expand upon previous analysis of the 1797–1833 rupture sequence with a comprehensive review of previously published coral microatoll data and the addition of a significant amount of new data. We present detailed maps of coseismic uplift during the two great earthquakes and of interseismic deformation during the periods 1755–1833 and 1950–1997 and models of the corresponding slip and coupling on the underlying megathrust. We derive magnitudes of Mw 8.7–9.0 for the two historical earthquakes, and determine that the 1797 earthquake fundamentally changed the state of coupling on the fault for decades afterward. We conclude that while major earthquakes generally do not involve rupture of the entire Mentawai segment, they undoubtedly influence the progression of subsequent ruptures, even beyond their own rupture area. This concept is of vital importance for monitoring and forecasting the progression of the modern rupture sequence.

Turning our attention to the 14th century, we present evidence of a shallow slip event in approximately A.D. 1314, which preceded the “conventional” megathrust rupture sequence. We calculate a suite of slip models, slightly deeper and/or larger than the 2010 Pagai Islands earthquake, that are consistent with the large amount of subsidence recorded at our study site. Sea-level records from older coral microatolls suggest that these events occur at least once every millennium, but likely far less frequently than their great downdip neighbors. The revelation that shallow slip events are important contributors to the seismic cycle of the Mentawai segment further complicates our understanding of this subduction megathrust and our assessment of the region’s exposure to seismic and tsunami hazards.

Finally, we present an outline of the complex intervening rupture sequence that took place in the 16th and 17th centuries, which involved at least five distinct uplift events. We conclude that each of the supercycles had unique features, and all of the types of fault behavior we observe are consistent with highly heterogeneous frictional properties of the megathrust beneath the south-central Mentawai Islands. We conclude that the heterogeneous distribution of asperities produces terminations and overlap zones between fault ruptures, resulting in the seismic “supercycle” phenomenon.

Sustainable energy solutions for irrigation and harvesting in developing countries

One of the critical problems currently being faced by agriculture industry in developing nations is the alarming rate of groundwater depletion. Irrigation accounts for over 70% of the total groundwater withdrawn everyday. Compounding this issue is the use of polluting diesel generators to pump groundwater for irrigation. This has made irrigation not only the biggest consumer of groundwater but also one of the major contributors to green house gases. The aim of this thesis is to present a solution to the energy-water nexus. To make agriculture less dependent on fossil fuels, the use of a solar-powered Stirling engine as the power generator for on-farm energy needs is discussed. The Stirling cycle is revisited and practical and ideal Stirling cycles are compared. Based on agricultural needs and financial constraints faced by farmers in developing countries, the use of a Fresnel lens as a solar-concentrator and a Beta-type Stirling engine unit is suggested for sustainable power generation on the farms. To reduce the groundwater consumption and to make irrigation more sustainable, the conceptual idea of using a Stirling engine in drip irrigation is presented. To tackle the shortage of over 37 million tonnes of cold-storage in India, the idea of cost-effective solar-powered on-farm cold storage unit is discussed.

Optimal scaling in ductile fracture

This work is concerned with the derivation of optimal scaling laws, in the sense of matching lower and upper bounds on the energy, for a solid undergoing ductile fracture. The specific problem considered concerns a material sample in the form of an infinite slab of finite thickness subjected to prescribed opening displacements on its two surfaces. The solid is assumed to obey deformation-theory of plasticity and, in order to further simplify the analysis, we assume isotropic rigid-plastic deformations with zero plastic spin. When hardening exponents are given values consistent with observation, the energy is found to exhibit sublinear growth. We regularize the energy through the addition of nonlocal energy terms of the strain-gradient plasticity type. This nonlocal regularization has the effect of introducing an intrinsic length scale into the energy. We also put forth a physical argument that identifies the intrinsic length and suggests a linear growth of the nonlocal energy. Under these assumptions, ductile fracture emerges as the net result of two competing effects: whereas the sublinear growth of the local energy promotes localization of deformation to failure planes, the nonlocal regularization stabilizes this process, thus resulting in an orderly progression towards failure and a well-defined specific fracture energy. The optimal scaling laws derived here show that ductile fracture results from localization of deformations to void sheets, and that it requires a well-defined energy per unit fracture area. In particular, fractal modes of fracture are ruled out under the assumptions of the analysis. The optimal scaling laws additionally show that ductile fracture is cohesive in nature, i.e., it obeys a well-defined relation between tractions and opening displacements. Finally, the scaling laws supply a link between micromechanical properties and macroscopic fracture properties. In particular, they reveal the relative roles that surface energy and microplasticity play as contributors to the specific fracture energy of the material. Next, we present an experimental assessment of the optimal scaling laws. We show that when the specific fracture energy is renormalized in a manner suggested by the optimal scaling laws, the data falls within the bounds predicted by the analysis and, moreover, they ostensibly collapse---with allowances made for experimental scatter---on a master curve dependent on the hardening exponent, but otherwise material independent.

Mechanics of deformable glacier beds

My focus in this thesis is to contribute to a more thorough understanding of the mechanics of ice and deformable glacier beds. Glaciers flow under their own weight through a combination of deformation within the ice column and basal slip, which involves both sliding along and deformation within the bed. Deformable beds, which are made up of unfrozen sediment, are prevalent in nature and are often the primary contributors to ice flow wherever they are found. Their granular nature imbues them with unique mechanical properties that depend on the granular structure and hydrological properties of the bed. Despite their importance for understanding glacier flow and the response of glaciers to changing climate, the mechanics of deformable glacier beds are not well understood.

Our general approach to understanding the mechanics of bed deformation and their effect on glacier flow is to acquire synoptic observations of ice surface velocities and their changes over time and to use those observations to infer the mechanical properties of the bed. We focus on areas where changes in ice flow over time are due to known environmental forcings and where the processes of interest are largely isolated from other effects. To make this approach viable, we further develop observational methods that involve the use of mapping radar systems. Chapters 2 and 5 focus largely on the development of these methods and analysis of results from ice caps in central Iceland and an ice stream in West Antarctica. In Chapter 3, we use these observations to constrain numerical ice flow models in order to study the mechanics of the bed and the ice itself. We show that the bed in an Iceland ice cap deforms plastically and we derive an original mechanistic model of ice flow over plastically deforming beds that incorporates changes in bed strength caused by meltwater flux from the surface. Expanding on this work in Chapter 4, we develop a more detailed mechanistic model for till-covered beds that helps explain the mechanisms that cause some glaciers to surge quasi-periodically. In Antarctica, we observe and analyze the mechanisms that allow ocean tidal variations to modulate ice stream flow tens of kilometers inland. We find that the ice stream margins are significantly weakened immediately upstream of the area where ice begins to float and that this weakening likely allows changes in stress over the floating ice to propagate through the ice column.