Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

Essays in behavioral and neuro-economics

This thesis examines foundational questions in behavioral economics—also called psychology and economics—and the neural foundations of varied sources of utility. We have three primary aims: First, to provide the field of behavioral economics with psychological theories of behavior that are derived from neuroscience and to use those theories to identify novel evidence for behavioral biases. Second, we provide neural and micro foundations of behavioral preferences that give rise to well-documented empirical phenomena in behavioral economics. Finally, we show how a deep understanding of the neural foundations of these behavioral preferences can feed back into our theories of social preferences and reference-dependent utility.

The first chapter focuses on classical conditioning and its application in identifying the psychological underpinnings of a pricing phenomenon. We return to classical conditioning again in the third chapter where we use fMRI to identify varied sources of utility—here, reference dependent versus direct utility—and cross-validate our interpretation with a conditioning experiment. The second chapter engages social preferences and, more broadly, causative utility (wherein the decision-maker derives utility from making or avoiding particular choices).

Essays on economics networks

This thesis belongs to the growing field of economic networks. In particular, we develop three essays in which we study the problem of bargaining, discrete choice representation, and pricing in the context of networked markets. Despite analyzing very different problems, the three essays share the common feature of making use of a network representation to describe the market of interest.

In Chapter 1 we present an analysis of bargaining in networked markets. We make two contributions. First, we characterize market equilibria in a bargaining model, and find that players' equilibrium payoffs coincide with their degree of centrality in the network, as measured by Bonacich's centrality measure. This characterization allows us to map, in a simple way, network structures into market equilibrium outcomes, so that payoffs dispersion in networked markets is driven by players' network positions. Second, we show that the market equilibrium for our model converges to the so called eigenvector centrality measure. We show that the economic condition for reaching convergence is that the players' discount factor goes to one. In particular, we show how the discount factor, the matching technology, and the network structure interact in a very particular way in order to see the eigenvector centrality as the limiting case of our market equilibrium.

We point out that the eigenvector approach is a way of finding the most central or relevant players in terms of the “global” structure of the network, and to pay less attention to patterns that are more “local”. Mathematically, the eigenvector centrality captures the relevance of players in the bargaining process, using the eigenvector associated to the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix of a given network. Thus our result may be viewed as an economic justification of the eigenvector approach in the context of bargaining in networked markets.

As an application, we analyze the special case of seller-buyer networks, showing how our framework may be useful for analyzing price dispersion as a function of sellers and buyers' network positions.

Finally, in Chapter 3 we study the problem of price competition and free entry in networked markets subject to congestion effects. In many environments, such as communication networks in which network flows are allocated, or transportation networks in which traffic is directed through the underlying road architecture, congestion plays an important role. In particular, we consider a network with multiple origins and a common destination node, where each link is owned by a firm that sets prices in order to maximize profits, whereas users want to minimize the total cost they face, which is given by the congestion cost plus the prices set by firms. In this environment, we introduce the notion of Markovian traffic equilibrium to establish the existence and uniqueness of a pure strategy price equilibrium, without assuming that the demand functions are concave nor imposing particular functional forms for the latency functions. We derive explicit conditions to guarantee existence and uniqueness of equilibria. Given this existence and uniqueness result, we apply our framework to study entry decisions and welfare, and establish that in congested markets with free entry, the number of firms exceeds the social optimum.

Where Tori fear to tread : hypermassive neutron star remnants and absolute event horizons Or topics in computational general relativity

Computational general relativity is a field of study which has reached maturity only within the last decade. This thesis details several studies that elucidate phenomena related to the coalescence of compact object binaries. Chapters 2 and 3 recounts work towards developing new analytical tools for visualizing and reasoning about dynamics in strongly curved spacetimes. In both studies, the results employ analogies with the classical theory of electricity and magnitism, first (Ch. 2) in the post-Newtonian approximation to general relativity and then (Ch. 3) in full general relativity though in the absence of matter sources. In Chapter 4, we examine the topological structure of absolute event horizons during binary black hole merger simulations conducted with the SpEC code. Chapter 6 reports on the progress of the SpEC code in simulating the coalescence of neutron star-neutron star binaries, while Chapter 7 tests the effects of various numerical gauge conditions on the robustness of black hole formation from stellar collapse in SpEC. In Chapter 5, we examine the nature of pseudospectral expansions of non-smooth functions motivated by the need to simulate the stellar surface in Chapters 6 and 7. In Chapter 8, we study how thermal effects in the nuclear equation of state effect the equilibria and stability of hypermassive neutron stars. Chapter 9 presents supplements to the work in Chapter 8, including an examination of the stability question raised in Chapter 8 in greater mathematical detail.

Computational modeling and psychophysics in low- and mid-level vision

This thesis addresses a series of topics related to the question of how people find the foreground objects from complex scenes. With both computer vision modeling, as well as psychophysical analyses, we explore the computational principles for low- and mid-level vision.

We first explore the computational methods of generating saliency maps from images and image sequences. We propose an extremely fast algorithm called Image Signature that detects the locations in the image that attract human eye gazes. With a series of experimental validations based on human behavioral data collected from various psychophysical experiments, we conclude that the Image Signature and its spatial-temporal extension, the Phase Discrepancy, are among the most accurate algorithms for saliency detection under various conditions.

In the second part, we bridge the gap between fixation prediction and salient object segmentation with two efforts. First, we propose a new dataset that contains both fixation and object segmentation information. By simultaneously presenting the two types of human data in the same dataset, we are able to analyze their intrinsic connection, as well as understanding the drawbacks of today’s “standard” but inappropriately labeled salient object segmentation dataset. Second, we also propose an algorithm of salient object segmentation. Based on our novel discoveries on the connections of fixation data and salient object segmentation data, our model significantly outperforms all existing models on all 3 datasets with large margins.

In the third part of the thesis, we discuss topics around the human factors of boundary analysis. Closely related to salient object segmentation, boundary analysis focuses on delimiting the local contours of an object. We identify the potential pitfalls of algorithm evaluation for the problem of boundary detection. Our analysis indicates that today’s popular boundary detection datasets contain significant level of noise, which may severely influence the benchmarking results. To give further insights on the labeling process, we propose a model to characterize the principles of the human factors during the labeling process.

The analyses reported in this thesis offer new perspectives to a series of interrelating issues in low- and mid-level vision. It gives warning signs to some of today’s “standard” procedures, while proposing new directions to encourage future research.

Future of earthquake early warning : quantifying uncertainty and making fast automated decisions for applications

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications.

Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake.

To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that can capture the uncertainties in EEW information and the decision process is used. This approach is called the Performance-Based Earthquake Early Warning, which is based on the PEER Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering method. Use of surrogate models is suggested to improve computational efficiency. Also, new models are proposed to add the influence of lead time into the cost-benefit analysis. For example, a value of information model is used to quantify the potential value of delaying the activation of a mitigation action for a possible reduction of the uncertainty of EEW information in the next update. Two practical examples, evacuation alert and elevator control, are studied to illustrate the ePAD framework. Potential advanced EEW applications, such as the case of multiple-action decisions and the synergy of EEW and structural health monitoring systems, are also discussed.

Computational design of self-assembling proteins and protein-DNA nanowires

Computational protein design (CPD) is a burgeoning field that uses a physical-chemical or knowledge-based scoring function to create protein variants with new or improved properties. This exciting approach has recently been used to generate proteins with entirely new functions, ones that are not observed in naturally occurring proteins. For example, several enzymes were designed to catalyze reactions that are not in the repertoire of any known natural enzyme. In these designs, novel catalytic activity was built de novo (from scratch) into a previously inert protein scaffold. In addition to de novo enzyme design, the computational design of protein-protein interactions can also be used to create novel functionality, such as neutralization of influenza. Our goal here was to design a protein that can self-assemble with DNA into nanowires. We used computational tools to homodimerize a transcription factor that binds a specific sequence of double-stranded DNA. We arranged the protein-protein and protein-DNA binding sites so that the self-assembly could occur in a linear fashion to generate nanowires. Upon mixing our designed protein homodimer with the double-stranded DNA, the molecules immediately self-assembled into nanowires. This nanowire topology was confirmed using atomic force microscopy. Co-crystal structure showed that the nanowire is assembled via the desired interactions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first example of a protein-DNA self-assembly that does not rely on covalent interactions. We anticipate that this new material will stimulate further interest in the development of advanced biomaterials.

Neural and computational representations of decision variables

These studies explore how, where, and when representations of variables critical to decision-making are represented in the brain. In order to produce a decision, humans must first determine the relevant stimuli, actions, and possible outcomes before applying an algorithm that will select an action from those available. When choosing amongst alternative stimuli, the framework of value-based decision-making proposes that values are assigned to the stimuli and that these values are then compared in an abstract “value space” in order to produce a decision. Despite much progress, in particular regarding the pinpointing of ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) as a region that encodes the value, many basic questions remain. In Chapter 2, I show that distributed BOLD signaling in vmPFC represents the value of stimuli under consideration in a manner that is independent of the type of stimulus it is. Thus the open question of whether value is represented in abstraction, a key tenet of value-based decision-making, is confirmed. However, I also show that stimulus-dependent value representations are also present in the brain during decision-making and suggest a potential neural pathway for stimulus-to-value transformations that integrates these two results.

More broadly speaking, there is both neural and behavioral evidence that two distinct control systems are at work during action selection. These two systems compose the “goal-directed system”, which selects actions based on an internal model of the environment, and the “habitual” system, which generates responses based on antecedent stimuli only. Computational characterizations of these two systems imply that they have different informational requirements in terms of input stimuli, actions, and possible outcomes. Associative learning theory predicts that the habitual system should utilize stimulus and action information only, while goal-directed behavior requires that outcomes as well as stimuli and actions be processed. In Chapter 3, I test whether areas of the brain hypothesized to be involved in habitual versus goal-directed control represent the corresponding theorized variables.

The question of whether one or both of these neural systems drives Pavlovian conditioning is less well-studied. Chapter 4 describes an experiment in which subjects were scanned while engaged in a Pavlovian task with a simple non-trivial structure. After comparing a variety of model-based and model-free learning algorithms (thought to underpin goal-directed and habitual decision-making, respectively), it was found that subjects’ reaction times were better explained by a model-based system. In addition, neural signaling of precision, a variable based on a representation of a world model, was found in the amygdala. These data indicate that the influence of model-based representations of the environment can extend even to the most basic learning processes.

Knowledge of the state of hidden variables in an environment is required for optimal inference regarding the abstract decision structure of a given environment and therefore can be crucial to decision-making in a wide range of situations. Inferring the state of an abstract variable requires the generation and manipulation of an internal representation of beliefs over the values of the hidden variable. In Chapter 5, I describe behavioral and neural results regarding the learning strategies employed by human subjects in a hierarchical state-estimation task. In particular, a comprehensive model fit and comparison process pointed to the use of "belief thresholding". This implies that subjects tended to eliminate low-probability hypotheses regarding the state of the environment from their internal model and ceased to update the corresponding variables. Thus, in concert with incremental Bayesian learning, humans explicitly manipulate their internal model of the generative process during hierarchical inference consistent with a serial hypothesis testing strategy.

Computational Predictions of G Protein-Coupled Receptor Structures and Binding Sites

G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) are the largest family of proteins within the human genome. They consist of seven transmembrane (TM) helices, with a N-terminal region of varying length and structure on the extracellular side, and a C-terminus on the intracellular side. GPCRs are involved in transmitting extracellular signals to cells, and as such are crucial drug targets. Designing pharmaceuticals to target GPCRs is greatly aided by full-atom structural information of the proteins. In particular, the TM region of GPCRs is where small molecule ligands (much more bioavailable than peptide ligands) typically bind to the receptors. In recent years nearly thirty distinct GPCR TM regions have been crystallized. However, there are more than 1,000 GPCRs, leaving the vast majority of GPCRs with limited structural information. Additionally, GPCRs are known to exist in a myriad of conformational states in the body, rendering the static x-ray crystal structures an incomplete reflection of GPCR structures. In order to obtain an ensemble of GPCR structures, we have developed the GEnSeMBLE procedure to rapidly sample a large number of variations of GPCR helix rotations and tilts. The lowest energy GEnSeMBLE structures are then docked to small molecule ligands and optimized. The GPCR family consists of five subfamilies with little to no sequence homology between them: class A, B1, B2, C, and Frizzled/Taste2. Almost all of the GPCR crystal structures have been of class A GPCRs, and much is known about their conserved interactions and binding sites. In this work we particularly focus on class B1 GPCRs, and aim to understand that family’s interactions and binding sites both to small molecules and their native peptide ligands. Specifically, we predict the full atom structure and peptide binding site of the glucagon-like peptide receptor and the TM region and small molecule binding sites for eight other class B1 GPCRs: CALRL, CRFR1, GIPR, GLR, PACR, PTH1R, VIPR1, and VIPR2. Our class B1 work reveals multiple conserved interactions across the B1 subfamily as well as a consistent small molecule binding site centrally located in the TM bundle. Both the interactions and the binding sites are distinct from those seen in the more well-characterized class A GPCRs, and as such our work provides a strong starting point for drug design targeting class B1 proteins. We also predict the full structure of CXCR4 bound to a small molecule, a class A GPCR that was not closely related to any of the class A GPCRs at the time of the work.

Gauge Invariant Spectral Cauchy Characteristic Extraction of Gravitational Waves in Computational General Relativity

We present a complete system for Spectral Cauchy characteristic extraction (Spectral CCE). Implemented in C++ within the Spectral Einstein Code (SpEC), the method employs numerous innovative algorithms to efficiently calculate the Bondi strain, news, and flux.

Spectral CCE was envisioned to ensure physically accurate gravitational wave-forms computed for the Laser Interferometer Gravitational wave Observatory (LIGO) and similar experiments, while working toward a template bank with more than a thousand waveforms to span the binary black hole (BBH) problem’s seven-dimensional parameter space.

The Bondi strain, news, and flux are physical quantities central to efforts to understand and detect astrophysical gravitational wave sources within the Simulations of eXtreme Spacetime (SXS) collaboration, with the ultimate aim of providing the first strong field probe of the Einstein field equation.

In a series of included papers, we demonstrate stability, convergence, and gauge invariance. We also demonstrate agreement between Spectral CCE and the legacy Pitt null code, while achieving a factor of 200 improvement in computational efficiency.

Spectral CCE represents a significant computational advance. It is the foundation upon which further capability will be built, specifically enabling the complete calculation of junk-free, gauge-free, and physically valid waveform data on the fly within SpEC.

Three essays on economics and information shocks

A person living in an industrialized society has almost no choice but to receive information daily with negative implications for himself or others. His attention will often be drawn to the ups and downs of economic indicators or the alleged misdeeds of leaders and organizations. Reacting to new information is central to economics, but economics typically ignores the affective aspect of the response, for example, of stress or anger. These essays present the results of considering how the affective aspect of the response can influence economic outcomes.

The first chapter presents an experiment in which individuals were presented with information about various non-profit organizations and allowed to take actions that rewarded or punished those organizations. When social interaction was introduced into this environment an asymmetry between rewarding and punishing appeared. The net effects of punishment became greater and more variable, whereas the effects of reward were unchanged. The individuals were more strongly influenced by negative social information and used that information to target unpopular organizations. These behaviors contributed to an increase in inequality among the outcomes of the organizations.

The second and third chapters present empirical studies of reactions to negative information about local economic conditions. Economic factors are among the most prevalent stressors, and stress is known to have numerous negative effects on health. These chapters document localized, transient effects of the announcement of information about large-scale job losses. News of mass layoffs and shut downs of large military bases are found to decrease birth weights and gestational ages among babies born in the affected regions. The effect magnitudes are close to those estimated in similar studies of disasters.

Computational microscopy: turning megapixels into gigapixels

The layout of a typical optical microscope has remained effectively unchanged over the past century. Besides the widespread adoption of digital focal plane arrays, relatively few innovations have helped improve standard imaging with bright-field microscopes. This thesis presents a new microscope imaging method, termed Fourier ptychography, which uses an LED to provide variable sample illumination and post-processing algorithms to recover useful sample information. Examples include increasing the resolution of megapixel-scale images to one gigapixel, measuring quantitative phase, achieving oil-immersion quality resolution without an immersion medium, and recovering complex three dimensional sample structure.

Essays in revealed preference theory and behavioral economics

Time, risk, and attention are all integral to economic decision making. The aim of this work is to understand those key components of decision making using a variety of approaches: providing axiomatic characterizations to investigate time discounting, generating measures of visual attention to infer consumers' intentions, and examining data from unique field settings.

Chapter 2, co-authored with Federico Echenique and Kota Saito, presents the first revealed-preference characterizations of exponentially-discounted utility model and its generalizations. My characterizations provide non-parametric revealed-preference tests. I apply the tests to data from a recent experiment, and find that the axiomatization delivers new insights on a dataset that had been analyzed by traditional parametric methods.

Chapter 3, co-authored with Min Jeong Kang and Colin Camerer, investigates whether "pre-choice" measures of visual attention improve in prediction of consumers' purchase intentions. We measure participants' visual attention using eyetracking or mousetracking while they make hypothetical as well as real purchase decisions. I find that different patterns of visual attention are associated with hypothetical and real decisions. I then demonstrate that including information on visual attention improves prediction of purchase decisions when attention is measured with mousetracking.

Chapter 4 investigates individuals' attitudes towards risk in a high-stakes environment using data from a TV game show, Jeopardy!. I first quantify players' subjective beliefs about answering questions correctly. Using those beliefs in estimation, I find that the representative player is risk averse. I then find that trailing players tend to wager more than "folk" strategies that are known among the community of contestants and fans, and this tendency is related to their confidence. I also find gender differences: male players take more risk than female players, and even more so when they are competing against two other male players.

Chapter 5, co-authored with Colin Camerer, investigates the dynamics of the favorite-longshot bias (FLB) using data on horse race betting from an online exchange that allows bettors to trade "in-play." I find that probabilistic forecasts implied by market prices before start of the races are well-calibrated, but the degree of FLB increases significantly as the events approach toward the end.

Computational Microscopy: Breaking the Limit of Conventional Optics

Computational imaging is flourishing thanks to the recent advancement in array photodetectors and image processing algorithms. This thesis presents Fourier ptychography, which is a computational imaging technique implemented in microscopy to break the limit of conventional optics. With the implementation of Fourier ptychography, the resolution of the imaging system can surpass the diffraction limit of the objective lens's numerical aperture; the quantitative phase information of a sample can be reconstructed from intensity-only measurements; and the aberration of a microscope system can be characterized and computationally corrected. This computational microscopy technique enhances the performance of conventional optical systems and expands the scope of their applications.