Markets and microstructure

This document contains three papers examining the microstructure of financial interaction in development and market settings. I first examine the industrial organization of financial exchanges, specifically limit order markets. In this section, I perform a case study of Google stock surrounding a surprising earnings announcement in the 3rd quarter of 2009, uncovering parameters that describe information flows and liquidity provision. I then explore the disbursement process for community-driven development projects. This section is game theoretic in nature, using a novel three-player ultimatum structure. I finally develop econometric tools to simulate equilibrium and identify equilibrium models in limit order markets.

In chapter two, I estimate an equilibrium model using limit order data, finding parameters that describe information and liquidity preferences for trading. As a case study, I estimate the model for Google stock surrounding an unexpected good-news earnings announcement in the 3rd quarter of 2009. I find a substantial decrease in asymmetric information prior to the earnings announcement. I also simulate counterfactual dealer markets and find empirical evidence that limit order markets perform more efficiently than do their dealer market counterparts.

In chapter three, I examine Community-Driven Development. Community-Driven Development is considered a tool empowering communities to develop their own aid projects. While evidence has been mixed as to the effectiveness of CDD in achieving disbursement to intended beneficiaries, the literature maintains that local elites generally take control of most programs. I present a three player ultimatum game which describes a potential decentralized aid procurement process. Players successively split a dollar in aid money, and the final player--the targeted community member--decides between whistle blowing or not. Despite the elite capture present in my model, I find conditions under which money reaches targeted recipients. My results describe a perverse possibility in the decentralized aid process which could make detection of elite capture more difficult than previously considered. These processes may reconcile recent empirical work claiming effectiveness of the decentralized aid process with case studies which claim otherwise.

In chapter four, I develop in more depth the empirical and computational means to estimate model parameters in the case study in chapter two. I describe the liquidity supplier problem and equilibrium among those suppliers. I then outline the analytical forms for computing certainty-equivalent utilities for the informed trader. Following this, I describe a recursive algorithm which facilitates computing equilibrium in supply curves. Finally, I outline implementation of the Method of Simulated Moments in this context, focusing on Indirect Inference and formulating the pseudo model.

Growth and characterization of novel, III-V semiconductor heterostructures

The material presented in this thesis concerns the growth and characterization of III-V semiconductor heterostructures. Studies of the interactions between bound states in coupled quantum wells and between well and barrier bound states in AlAs/GaAs heterostructures are presented. We also demonstrate the broad array of novel tunnel structures realizable in the InAs/GaSb/AlSb material system. Because of the unique broken-gap band alignment of InAs/GaSb these structures involve transport between the conduction- and valence-bands of adjacent layers. These devices possess a wide range of electrical properties and are fundamentally different from conventional AlAs/GaAs tunnel devices. We report on the fabrication of a novel tunnel transistor with the largest reported room temperature current gains. We also present time-resolved studies of the growth fronts of InAs/GainSb strained layer superlattices and investigations of surface anion exchange reactions.

Chapter 2 covers tunneling studies of conventional AlAs/GaAs RTD's. The results of two studies are presented: (i) A test of coherent vs. sequential tunneling in triple barrier heterostructures, (ii) An optical measurement of the effect of barrier X-point states on Γ-point well states. In the first it was found if two quantum wells are separated by a sufficiently thin barrier, then the eigenstates of the system extend coherently across both wells and the central barriers. For thicker barriers between the wells, the electrons become localized in the individual wells and transport is best described by the electrons hopping between the wells. In the second, it was found that Γ-point well states and X-point barrier states interact strongly. The barrier X-point states modify the energies of the well states and increase the escape rate for carriers in the quantum well.

The results of several experimental studies of a novel class of tunnel devices realized in the InAs/GaSb/AlSb material system are presented in Chapter 3. These interband tunnel structures involve transport between conduction- and valence-band states in adjacent material layers. These devices are compared and contrasted with the conventional AlAs/GaAs structures discussed in Chapter 2 and experimental results are presented for both resonant and nonresonant devices. These results are compared with theoretical simulations and necessary extensions to the theoretical models are discussed.

In chapter 4 experimental results from a novel tunnel transistor are reported. The measured current gains in this transistor exceed 100 at room temperature. This is the highest reported gain at room temperature for any tunnel transistor. The device is analyzed and the current conduction and gain mechanisms are discussed.

Chapters 5 and 6 are studies of the growth of structures involving layers with different anions. Chapter 5 covers the growth of InAs/GainSb superlattices for far infrared detectors and time resolved, in-situ studies of their growth fronts. It was found that the bandgap of superlattices with identical layer thicknesses and compositions varied by as much as 40 meV depending on how their internal interfaces are formed. The absorption lengths in superlattices with identical bandgaps but whose interfaces were formed in different ways varied by as much as a factor of two. First the superlattice is discussed including an explanation of the device and the complications involved in its growth. The experimental technique of reflection high energy electron diffraction (RHEED) is reviewed, and the results of RHEED studies of the growth of these complicated structures are presented. The development of a time resolved, in-situ characterization of the internal interfaces of these superlattices is described. Chapter 6 describes the result of a detailed study of some of the phenomena described in chapter 5. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) studies of anion exchange reactions on the growth fronts of these superlattices are reported. Concurrent RHEED studies of the same physical systems studied with XPS are presented. Using the RHEED and XPS results, a real-time, indirect measurement of surface exchange reactions was developed.

Searches for new symmetries in pp collisions with the razor kinematic variables at √s = 7 TeV

The construction and LHC phenomenology of the razor variables M_R, an event-by-event indicator of the heavy particle mass scale, and R, a dimensionless variable related to the transverse momentum imbalance of events and missing transverse energy, are presented.  The variables are used  in the analysis of the first proton-proton collisions dataset at CMS  (35 pb^-1) in a search for superpartners of the quarks and gluons, targeting indirect hints of dark matter candidates in the context of supersymmetric theoretical frameworks. The analysis produced the highest sensitivity results for SUSY to date and extended the LHC reach far beyond the previous Tevatron results.  A generalized inclusive search is subsequently presented for new heavy particle pairs produced in √s = 7 TeV proton-proton collisions at the LHC using 4.7±0.1 fb^-1 of integrated luminosity from the second LHC run of 2011.  The selected events are analyzed in the 2D razor-space of M_R and R and the analysis is performed in 12 tiers of all-hadronic, single and double leptons final states in the presence and absence of b-quarks, probing the third generation sector using the event heavy-flavor content.   The search is sensitive to generic supersymmetry models with minimal assumptions about the superpartner decay chains. No excess is observed in the number or shape of event yields relative to Standard Model predictions. Exclusion limits are derived in the CMSSM framework with  gluino masses up to 800 GeV and squark masses up to 1.35 TeV excluded at 95% confidence level, depending on the model parameters. The results are also interpreted for a collection of simplified models, in which gluinos are excluded with masses as large as 1.1 TeV, for small neutralino masses, and the first-two generation squarks, stops and sbottoms are excluded for masses up to about 800, 425 and 400 GeV, respectively.

With the discovery of a new boson by the CMS and ATLAS experiments in the γ-γ and 4 lepton final states, the identity of the putative Higgs candidate must be established through the measurements of its properties. The spin and quantum numbers are of particular importance, and we describe a method for measuring the J^PC of this particle using the observed signal events in the H to ZZ^* to 4 lepton channel developed before the discovery. Adaptations of the razor kinematic variables are introduced for the H to WW^* to 2 lepton/2 neutrino channel, improving the resonance mass resolution and increasing the discovery significance. The prospects for incorporating this channel in an examination of the new boson J^PC is discussed, with indications that this it could provide complementary information to the H to ZZ^* to 4 lepton final state, particularly for measuring CP-violation in these decays.

Structural requirements for catalysis: studies on RTEM-1 β-lactamase

β-lactamases are a group of enzymes that confer resistance to penam and cephem antibiotics by hydrolysis of the β-lactam ring, thereby inactivating the antibiotic. Crystallographic and computer modeling studies of RTEM-1 β-lactamase have indicated that Asp 132, a strictly conserved residue among the class A β-lactamases, appears to be involved in substrate binding, catalysis, or both. To study the contribution of residue 132 to β-lactamase function, site saturation mutagenesis was used to generate mutants coding for all 20 amino acids at position 132. Phenotypic screening of all mutants indicated that position 132 is very sensitive to amino acid changes, with only N132C, N132D, N132E, and N132Q showing any appreciable activity. Kinetic analysis of three of these mutants showed increases in K_M, along with substantial decreases in k_(cat). Efforts to trap a stable acyl-enzyme intermediate were unsuccessfuL These results indicate that residue 132 is involved in substrate binding, as well as catalysis, and supports the involvement of this residue in acylation as suggested by Strynadka et al.

Crystallographic and computer modeling studies of RTEM-1 β-lactamase have indicated that Lys 73 and Glu 166, two strictly conserved residues among the class A β-lactamases, appear to be involved in substrate binding, catalysis, or both. To study the contribution of these residues to β-lactamase function, site saturation mutagenesis was used to generate mutants coding for all 20 amino acids at positions 73 and 166. Then all 400 possible combinations of mutants were created by combinatorial mutagenesis. The colonies harboring the mutants were screened for growth in the presence of ampicillin. The competent colonys' DNA were sequenced, and kinetic parameters investigated. It was found that lysine is essential at position 73, and that position 166 only tolerated fairly conservative changes (Aspartic acid, Histidine, and Tyrosine). These functional mutants exhibited decreased kcat's, but K_M was close to wild-type levels. The results of the combinatorial mutagenesis experiments indicate that Lysis absolutely required for activity at position 73; no mutation at residue 166 can compensate for loss of the long side chain amine. The active mutants found--K73K/E166D, K73KIE166H, and K73KIE166Y were studied by kinetic analysis. These results reaffirmed the function of residue 166 as important in catalysis, specifically deacylation.

The identity of the residue responsible for enhancing the active site serine (Ser 70) in RTEM-1 β-lactamase has been disputed for some time. Recently, analysis of a crystal structure of RTEM-1 β-lactamase with covalently bound intermediate was published, and it was suggested that Lys 73, a strictly conserved residue among the class A β-lactamases, was acting as a general base, activating Ser 70. For this to be possible, the pK_a of Lys 73 would have to be depressed significantly. In an attempt to assay the pK_a of Lys 73, the mutation K73C was made. This mutant protein can be reacted with 2-bromoethylamine, and activity is restored to near wild type levels. ^(15)N-2-bromoethylamine hydrobromide and ^(13)C-2-bromoethylamine hydrobromide were synthesized. Reacting these compounds with the K73C mutant gives stable isotopic enrichment at residue 73 in the form of aminoethylcysteine, a lysine homologue. The pK_a of an amine can be determined by NMR titration, following the change in chemical shift of either the ^(15)N-amine nuclei or adjacent Be nuclei as pH is changed. Unfortunately, low protein solubility, along with probable label scrambling in the Be experiment, did not permit direct observation of either the ^(15)N or ^(13)C signals. Indirect detection experiments were used to observe the protons bonded directly to the ^(13)C atoms. Two NMR signals were seen, and their chemical shift change with pH variation was noted. The peak which was determined to correspond to the aminoethylcysteine residue shifted from 3.2 ppm down to 2.8 ppm over a pH range of 6.6 to 12.5. The pK_a of the amine at position 73 was determined to be ~10. This indicates that residue 73 does not function as a general base in the acylation step of the reaction. However the experimental measurement takes place in the absence of substrate. Since the enzyme undergoes conformational changes upon substrate binding, the measured pK_a of the free enzyme may not correspond to the pK_a of the enzyme substrate complex.

Topics in gravitational-wave science : macroscopic quantum mechanics and black hole physics

The theories of relativity and quantum mechanics, the two most important physics discoveries of the 20th century, not only revolutionized our understanding of the nature of space-time and the way matter exists and interacts, but also became the building blocks of what we currently know as modern physics. My thesis studies both subjects in great depths --- this intersection takes place in gravitational-wave physics.

Gravitational waves are "ripples of space-time", long predicted by general relativity. Although indirect evidence of gravitational waves has been discovered from observations of binary pulsars, direct detection of these waves is still actively being pursued. An international array of laser interferometer gravitational-wave detectors has been constructed in the past decade, and a first generation of these detectors has taken several years of data without a discovery. At this moment, these detectors are being upgraded into second-generation configurations, which will have ten times better sensitivity. Kilogram-scale test masses of these detectors, highly isolated from the environment, are probed continuously by photons. The sensitivity of such a quantum measurement can often be limited by the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle, and during such a measurement, the test masses can be viewed as evolving through a sequence of nearly pure quantum states.

The first part of this thesis (Chapter 2) concerns how to minimize the adverse effect of thermal fluctuations on the sensitivity of advanced gravitational detectors, thereby making them closer to being quantum-limited. My colleagues and I present a detailed analysis of coating thermal noise in advanced gravitational-wave detectors, which is the dominant noise source of Advanced LIGO in the middle of the detection frequency band. We identified the two elastic loss angles, clarified the different components of the coating Brownian noise, and obtained their cross spectral densities.

The second part of this thesis (Chapters 3-7) concerns formulating experimental concepts and analyzing experimental results that demonstrate the quantum mechanical behavior of macroscopic objects - as well as developing theoretical tools for analyzing quantum measurement processes. In Chapter 3, we study the open quantum dynamics of optomechanical experiments in which a single photon strongly influences the quantum state of a mechanical object. We also explain how to engineer the mechanical oscillator's quantum state by modifying the single photon's wave function.

In Chapters 4-5, we build theoretical tools for analyzing the so-called "non-Markovian" quantum measurement processes. Chapter 4 establishes a mathematical formalism that describes the evolution of a quantum system (the plant), which is coupled to a non-Markovian bath (i.e., one with a memory) while at the same time being under continuous quantum measurement (by the probe field). This aims at providing a general framework for analyzing a large class of non-Markovian measurement processes. Chapter 5 develops a way of characterizing the non-Markovianity of a bath (i.e.,whether and to what extent the bath remembers information about the plant) by perturbing the plant and watching for changes in the its subsequent evolution. Chapter 6 re-analyzes a recent measurement of a mechanical oscillator's zero-point fluctuations, revealing nontrivial correlation between the measurement device's sensing noise and the quantum rack-action noise.

Chapter 7 describes a model in which gravity is classical and matter motions are quantized, elaborating how the quantum motions of matter are affected by the fact that gravity is classical. It offers an experimentally plausible way to test this model (hence the nature of gravity) by measuring the center-of-mass motion of a macroscopic object.

The most promising gravitational waves for direct detection are those emitted from highly energetic astrophysical processes, sometimes involving black holes - a type of object predicted by general relativity whose properties depend highly on the strong-field regime of the theory. Although black holes have been inferred to exist at centers of galaxies and in certain so-called X-ray binary objects, detecting gravitational waves emitted by systems containing black holes will offer a much more direct way of observing black holes, providing unprecedented details of space-time geometry in the black-holes' strong-field region.

The third part of this thesis (Chapters 8-11) studies black-hole physics in connection with gravitational-wave detection.

Chapter 8 applies black hole perturbation theory to model the dynamics of a light compact object orbiting around a massive central Schwarzschild black hole. In this chapter, we present a Hamiltonian formalism in which the low-mass object and the metric perturbations of the background spacetime are jointly evolved. Chapter 9 uses WKB techniques to analyze oscillation modes (quasi-normal modes or QNMs) of spinning black holes. We obtain analytical approximations to the spectrum of the weakly-damped QNMs, with relative error O(1/L^2), and connect these frequencies to geometrical features of spherical photon orbits in Kerr spacetime. Chapter 11 focuses mainly on near-extremal Kerr black holes, we discuss a bifurcation in their QNM spectra for certain ranges of (l,m) (the angular quantum numbers) as a/M → 1. With tools prepared in Chapter 9 and 10, in Chapter 11 we obtain an analytical approximate for the scalar Green function in Kerr spacetime.

Wire array photovoltaics

Over the past five years, the cost of solar panels has dropped drastically and, in concert, the number of installed modules has risen exponentially. However, solar electricity is still more than twice as expensive as electricity from a natural gas plant. Fortunately, wire array solar cells have emerged as a promising technology for further lowering the cost of solar.

Si wire array solar cells are formed with a unique, low cost growth method and use 100 times less material than conventional Si cells. The wires can be embedded in a transparent, flexible polymer to create a free-standing array that can be rolled up for easy installation in a variety of form factors. Furthermore, by incorporating multijunctions into the wire morphology, higher efficiencies can be achieved while taking advantage of the unique defect relaxation pathways afforded by the 3D wire geometry.

The work in this thesis shepherded Si wires from undoped arrays to flexible, functional large area devices and laid the groundwork for multijunction wire array cells. Fabrication techniques were developed to turn intrinsic Si wires into full p-n junctions and the wires were passivated with a-Si:H and a-SiNx:H. Single wire devices yielded open circuit voltages of 600 mV and efficiencies of 9%. The arrays were then embedded in a polymer and contacted with a transparent, flexible, Ni nanoparticle and Ag nanowire top contact. The contact connected >99% of the wires in parallel and yielded flexible, substrate free solar cells featuring hundreds of thousands of wires.

Building on the success of the Si wire arrays, GaP was epitaxially grown on the material to create heterostructures for photoelectrochemistry. These cells were limited by low absorption in the GaP due to its indirect bandgap, and poor current collection due to a diffusion length of only 80 nm. However, GaAsP on SiGe offers a superior combination of materials, and wire architectures based on these semiconductors were investigated for multijunction arrays. These devices offer potential efficiencies of 34%, as demonstrated through an analytical model and optoelectronic simulations. SiGe and Ge wires were fabricated via chemical-vapor deposition and reactive ion etching. GaAs was then grown on these substrates at the National Renewable Energy Lab and yielded ns lifetime components, as required for achieving high efficiency devices.

Aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions in marine stratocumulus clouds

Marine stratocumulus clouds are generally optically thick and shallow, exerting a net cooling influence on climate. Changes in atmospheric aerosol levels alter cloud microphysics (e.g., droplet size) and cloud macrophysics (e.g., liquid water path, cloud thickness), thereby affecting cloud albedo and Earth’s radiative balance. To understand the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions and to explore the dynamical effects, three-dimensional large-eddy simulations (LES) with detailed bin-resolved microphysics are performed to explore the diurnal variation of marine stratocumulus clouds under different aerosol levels and environmental conditions. It is shown that the marine stratocumulus cloud albedo is sensitive to aerosol perturbation under clean background conditions, and to environmental conditions such as large-scale divergence rate and free tropospheric humidity.

Based on the in-situ Eastern Pacific Emitted Aerosol Cloud Experiment (E-PEACE) during Jul. and Aug. 2011, and A-Train satellite observation of 589 individual ship tracks during Jun. 2006-Dec. 2009, an analysis of cloud albedo responses in ship tracks is presented. It is found that the albedo response in ship tracks depends on the mesoscale cloud structure, the free tropospheric humidity, and cloud top height. Under closed cell structure (i.e., cloud cells ringed by a perimeter of clear air), with sufficiently dry air above cloud tops and/or higher cloud top heights, the cloud albedo can become lower in ship tracks. Based on the satellite data, nearly 25% of ship tracks exhibited a decreased albedo. The cloud macrophysical responses are crucial in determining both the strength and the sign of the cloud albedo response to aerosols.

To understand the aerosol indirect effects on global marine warm clouds, multisensory satellite observations, including CloudSat, MODIS, CALIPSO, AMSR-E, ECMWF, CERES, and NCEP, have been applied to study the sensitivity of cloud properties to aerosol levels and to large scale environmental conditions. With an estimate of anthropogenic aerosol fraction, the global aerosol indirect radiative forcing has been assessed.

As the coupling among aerosol, cloud, precipitation, and meteorological conditions in the marine boundary layer is complex, the integration of LES modeling, in-situ aircraft measurements, and global multisensory satellite data analyses improves our understanding of this complex system.

Statistical and econometric analysis of the treatment of HIV/AIDS

The epidemic of HIV/AIDS in the United States is constantly changing and evolving, starting from patient zero to now an estimated 650,000 to 900,000 Americans infected. The nature and course of HIV changed dramatically with the introduction of antiretrovirals. This discourse examines many different facets of HIV from the beginning where there wasn't any treatment for HIV until the present era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). By utilizing statistical analysis of clinical data, this paper examines where we were, where we are and projections as to where treatment of HIV/AIDS is headed.

Chapter Two describes the datasets that were used for the analyses. The primary database utilized was collected by myself from an outpatient HIV clinic. The data included dates from 1984 until the present. The second database was from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) public dataset. The data from the MACS cover the time between 1984 and October 1992. Comparisons are made between both datasets.

Chapter Three discusses where we were. Before the first anti-HIV drugs (called antiretrovirals) were approved, there was no treatment to slow the progression of HIV. The first generation of antiretrovirals, reverse transcriptase inhibitors such as AZT (zidovudine), DDI (didanosine), DDC (zalcitabine), and D4T (stavudine) provided the first treatment for HIV. The first clinical trials showed that these antiretrovirals had a significant impact on increasing patient survival. The trials also showed that patients on these drugs had increased CD4+ T cell counts. Chapter Three examines the distributions of CD4 T cell counts. The results show that the estimated distributions of CD4 T cell counts are distinctly non-Gaussian. Thus distributional assumptions regarding CD4 T cell counts must be taken, into account when performing analyses with this marker. The results also show the estimated CD4 T cell distributions for each disease stage: asymptomatic, symptomatic and AIDS are non-Gaussian. Interestingly, the distribution of CD4 T cell counts for the asymptomatic period is significantly below that of the CD4 T cell distribution for the uninfected population suggesting that even in patients with no outward symptoms of HIV infection, there exists high levels of immunosuppression.

Chapter Four discusses where we are at present. HIV quickly grew resistant to reverse transcriptase inhibitors which were given sequentially as mono or dual therapy. As resistance grew, the positive effects of the reverse transcriptase inhibitors on CD4 T cell counts and survival dissipated. As the old era faded a new era characterized by a new class of drugs and new technology changed the way that we treat HIV-infected patients. Viral load assays were able to quantify the levels of HIV RNA in the blood. By quantifying the viral load, one now had a faster, more direct way to test antiretroviral regimen efficacy. Protease inhibitors, which attacked a different region of HIV than reverse transcriptase inhibitors, when used in combination with other antiretroviral agents were found to dramatically and significantly reduce the HIV RNA levels in the blood. Patients also experienced significant increases in CD4 T cell counts. For the first time in the epidemic, there was hope. It was hypothesized that with HAART, viral levels could be kept so low that the immune system as measured by CD4 T cell counts would be able to recover. If these viral levels could be kept low enough, it would be possible for the immune system to eradicate the virus. The hypothesis of immune reconstitution, that is bringing CD4 T cell counts up to levels seen in uninfected patients, is tested in Chapter Four. It was found that for these patients, there was not enough of a CD4 T cell increase to be consistent with the hypothesis of immune reconstitution.

In Chapter Five, the effectiveness of long-term HAART is analyzed. Survival analysis was conducted on 213 patients on long-term HAART. The primary endpoint was presence of an AIDS defining illness. A high level of clinical failure, or progression to an endpoint, was found.

Chapter Six yields insights into where we are going. New technology such as viral genotypic testing, that looks at the genetic structure of HIV and determines where mutations have occurred, has shown that HIV is capable of producing resistance mutations that confer multiple drug resistance. This section looks at resistance issues and speculates, ceterus parabis, where the state of HIV is going. This section first addresses viral genotype and the correlates of viral load and disease progression. A second analysis looks at patients who have failed their primary attempts at HAART and subsequent salvage therapy. It was found that salvage regimens, efforts to control viral replication through the administration of different combinations of antiretrovirals, were not effective in 90 percent of the population in controlling viral replication. Thus, primary attempts at therapy offer the best change of viral suppression and delay of disease progression. Documentation of transmission of drug-resistant virus suggests that the public health crisis of HIV is far from over. Drug resistant HIV can sustain the epidemic and hamper our efforts to treat HIV infection. The data presented suggest that the decrease in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV/AIDS is transient. Deaths due to HIV will increase and public health officials must prepare for this eventuality unless new treatments become available. These results also underscore the importance of the vaccine effort.

The final chapter looks at the economic issues related to HIV. The direct and indirect costs of treating HIV/AIDS are very high. For the first time in the epidemic, there exists treatment that can actually slow disease progression. The direct costs for HAART are estimated. It is estimated that the direct lifetime costs for treating each HIV infected patient with HAART is between $353,000 to $598,000 depending on how long HAART prolongs life. If one looks at the incremental cost per year of life saved it is only $101,000. This is comparable with the incremental costs per year of life saved from coronary artery bypass surgery.

Policy makers need to be aware that although HAART can delay disease progression, it is not a cure and HIV is not over. The results presented here suggest that the decreases in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV are transient. Policymakers need to be prepared for the eventual increase in AIDS incidence and mortality. Costs associated with HIV/AIDS are also projected to increase. The cost savings seen recently have been from the dramatic decreases in the incidence of AIDS defining opportunistic infections. As patients who have been on HAART the longest start to progress to AIDS, policymakers and insurance companies will find that the cost of treating HIV/AIDS will increase.