Robot navigation in dense crowds : statistical models and experimental studies of human robot cooperation

This thesis explores the problem of mobile robot navigation in dense human crowds. We begin by considering a fundamental impediment to classical motion planning algorithms called the freezing robot problem: once the environment surpasses a certain level of complexity, the planner decides that all forward paths are unsafe, and the robot freezes in place (or performs unnecessary maneuvers) to avoid collisions. Since a feasible path typically exists, this behavior is suboptimal. Existing approaches have focused on reducing predictive uncertainty by employing higher fidelity individual dynamics models or heuristically limiting the individual predictive covariance to prevent overcautious navigation. We demonstrate that both the individual prediction and the individual predictive uncertainty have little to do with this undesirable navigation behavior. Additionally, we provide evidence that dynamic agents are able to navigate in dense crowds by engaging in joint collision avoidance, cooperatively making room to create feasible trajectories. We accordingly develop interacting Gaussian processes, a prediction density that captures cooperative collision avoidance, and a "multiple goal" extension that models the goal driven nature of human decision making. Navigation naturally emerges as a statistic of this distribution.

Most importantly, we empirically validate our models in the Chandler dining hall at Caltech during peak hours, and in the process, carry out the first extensive quantitative study of robot navigation in dense human crowds (collecting data on 488 runs). The multiple goal interacting Gaussian processes algorithm performs comparably with human teleoperators in crowd densities nearing 1 person/m², while a state of the art noncooperative planner exhibits unsafe behavior more than 3 times as often as the multiple goal extension, and twice as often as the basic interacting Gaussian process approach. Furthermore, a reactive planner based on the widely used dynamic window approach proves insufficient for crowd densities above 0.55 people/m². We also show that our noncooperative planner or our reactive planner capture the salient characteristics of nearly any dynamic navigation algorithm. For inclusive validation purposes, we show that either our non-interacting planner or our reactive planner captures the salient characteristics of nearly any existing dynamic navigation algorithm. Based on these experimental results and theoretical observations, we conclude that a cooperation model is critical for safe and efficient robot navigation in dense human crowds.

Finally, we produce a large database of ground truth pedestrian crowd data. We make this ground truth database publicly available for further scientific study of crowd prediction models, learning from demonstration algorithms, and human robot interaction models in general.

Theoretical studies of novel organic systems : biradicals, polyradicals, and conducting polymers

Chapter 1

Cyclobutanediyl has been studied in both its singlet and triplet states by ab initio electronic structure theory. The triplet, which is the ground state of the molecule, exists in both C_(2h) and C_(2v) forms, which interconvert via a C_s transition state. For the singlet, only a C_(2h) form is found. It passes, via a C_s transition state, onto the C_(2v) surface on which bicyclobutane is the only minimum. The ring-flipping (inversion) process in bicyclobutane includes the singlet biradical as an intermediate, and involves a novel, nonleast motion pathway. Semiclassical periodic orbit theory indicates that the various minima on both the singlet and triplet surfaces can interconvert via quantum mechanical tunneling.

Chapter 2

The dimethylenepolycyclobutadienes (n) are the non-Kekulé analogues of the classical acenes. Application of a variety of theoretical methods reveals several novel features of such structures. Most interesting is the emergence of a parity rule. When n is even, n is predicted to be a singlet, with n disjoint NBMOs. When n is odd, theory predicts a triplet ground state with (n+1) NBMOs that are not fully disjoint.

Chapter 3

Bi(cyclobutadienyl) (2), the cyclobutadiene analogue of biphenyl, and its homologues tri- (3) and tetra(cyclobutadienyl) (4) have been studied using electronic structure theory. Ab initio calculations on 2 reveal that the central bond is a true double bond, and that the structure is best thought of as two allyl radicals plus an ethylene. The singlet and triplet states are essentially degenerate. Trimer 3 is two allyls plus a dimethylenecyclobutanediyl, while 4 is two coplanar bi(cyclobutadienyl) units connected by a single bond. For both 3 and 4, the quintet, triplet, and singlet states are essentially degenerate, indicating that they are tetraradicals. The infinite polymer, polycyclobutadiene, has been studied by HMO, EHCO, and VEH methods. Several geometries based on the structures of 3 and 4 have been studied, and the band structures are quite intriguing. A novel crossing between the valence and conduction bands produces a small band gap and a high density of states at the Fermi level.

Chapter 4

At the level of Hückel theory, polyfulvene has a HOCO-LUCO degeneracy much like that seen in polyacetylene. Higher levels of theory remove the degeneracy, but the band gap (E_g) is predicted to be significantly smaller than analogous structures such as polythiophene and polypyrrole at the fulvenoid geometry. An alternative geometry, which we have termed quinoid, is also conceivable for polyfulvene, and it is predicted to have a much larger E_g. The effects of benzannelation to produce analogues of polyisothianaphthene have been evaluated. We propose a new model for such structures based on conventional orbital mixing arguments. Several of the proposed structures have quite interesting properties, which suggest that they are excellent candidates for conducting polymers.

Chapter 5

Theoretical studies of polydimethylenecyclobutene and polydiisopropylidene- cyclobutene reveal that, because of steric crowding, they cannot achieve a planar, fully conjugated structure in either their undoped or doped states. Rather, the structure consists of essentially orthogonal hexatriene units. Such a structure is incompatible with conventional conduction mechanisms involving polarons and bipolarons.

1. Ultrasonic studies of binary liquid structure in the critical region. Theory and experiment for the 2,6-lutidine/water system. 2. Hartree-Fock calculations of electric polarizabilities of some simple atoms and molecules, and their practicality. 3. Calculation of vibrational transition probabilities in collinear atom-diatom and diatom-diatom collisions with Lennard-Jones interaction

Part 1. Many interesting visual and mechanical phenomena occur in the critical region of fluids, both for the gas-liquid and liquid-liquid transitions. The precise thermodynamic and transport behavior here has some broad consequences for the molecular theory of liquids. Previous studies in this laboratory on a liquid-liquid critical mixture via ultrasonics supported a basically classical analysis of fluid behavior by M. Fixman (e. g., the free energy is assumed analytic in intensive variables in the thermodynamics)--at least when the fluid is not too close to critical. A breakdown in classical concepts is evidenced close to critical, in some well-defined ways. We have studied herein a liquid-liquid critical system of complementary nature (possessing a lower critical mixing or consolute temperature) to all previous mixtures, to look for new qualitative critical behavior. We did not find such new behavior in the ultrasonic absorption ascribable to the critical fluctuations, but we did find extra absorption due to chemical processes (yet these are related to the mixing behavior generating the lower consolute point). We rederived, corrected, and extended Fixman's analysis to interpret our experimental results in these more complex circumstances. The entire account of theory and experiment is prefaced by an extensive introduction recounting the general status of liquid state theory. The introduction provides a context for our present work, and also points out problems deserving attention. Interest in these problems was stimulated by this work but also by work in Part 3.

Part 2. Among variational theories of electronic structure, the Hartree-Fock theory has proved particularly valuable for a practical understanding of such properties as chemical binding, electric multipole moments, and X-ray scattering intensity. It also provides the most tractable method of calculating first-order properties under external or internal one-electron perturbations, either developed explicitly in orders of perturbation theory or in the fully self-consistent method. The accuracy and consistency of first-order properties are poorer than those of zero-order properties, but this is most often due to the use of explicit approximations in solving the perturbed equations, or to inadequacy of the variational basis in size or composition. We have calculated the electric polarizabilities of H₂, He, Li, Be, LiH, and N₂ by Hartree-Fock theory, using exact perturbation theory or the fully self-consistent method, as dictated by convenience. By careful studies on total basis set composition, we obtained good approximations to limiting Hartree-Fock values of polarizabilities with bases of reasonable size. The values for all species, and for each direction in the molecular cases, are within 8% of experiment, or of best theoretical values in the absence of the former. Our results support the use of unadorned Hartree-Pock theory for static polarizabilities needed in interpreting electron-molecule scattering data, collision-induced light scattering experiments, and other phenomena involving experimentally inaccessible polarizabilities.

Part 3. Numerical integration of the close-coupled scattering equations has been carried out to obtain vibrational transition probabilities for some models of the electronically adiabatic H₂-H₂ collision. All the models use a Lennard-Jones interaction potential between nearest atoms in the collision partners. We have analyzed the results for some insight into the vibrational excitation process in its dependence on the energy of collision, the nature of the vibrational binding potential, and other factors. We conclude also that replacement of earlier, simpler models of the interaction potential by the Lennard-Jones form adds very little realism for all the complication it introduces. A brief introduction precedes the presentation of our work and places it in the context of attempts to understand the collisional activation process in chemical reactions as well as some other chemical dynamics.