Characterization of diverse megathrust fault behavior related to seismic supercycles, Mentawai Islands, Sumatra

Long paleoseismic histories are necessary for understanding the full range of behavior of faults, as the most destructive events often have recurrence intervals longer than local recorded history. The Sunda megathrust, the interface along which the Australian plate subducts beneath Southeast Asia, provides an ideal natural laboratory for determining a detailed paleoseismic history over many seismic cycles. The outer-arc islands above the seismogenic portion of the megathrust cyclically rise and subside in response to processes on the underlying megathrust, providing uncommonly good illumination of megathrust behavior. Furthermore, the growth histories of coral microatolls, which record tectonic uplift and subsidence via relative sea level, can be used to investigate the detailed coseismic and interseismic deformation patterns. One particularly interesting area is the Mentawai segment of the megathrust, which has been shown to characteristically fail in a series of ruptures over decades, rather than a single end-to-end rupture. This behavior has been termed a seismic “supercycle.” Prior to the current rupture sequence, which began in 2007, the segment previously ruptured during the 14th century, the late 16th to late 17th century, and most recently during historical earthquakes in 1797 and 1833. In this study, we examine each of these previous supercycles in turn.

First, we expand upon previous analysis of the 1797–1833 rupture sequence with a comprehensive review of previously published coral microatoll data and the addition of a significant amount of new data. We present detailed maps of coseismic uplift during the two great earthquakes and of interseismic deformation during the periods 1755–1833 and 1950–1997 and models of the corresponding slip and coupling on the underlying megathrust. We derive magnitudes of Mw 8.7–9.0 for the two historical earthquakes, and determine that the 1797 earthquake fundamentally changed the state of coupling on the fault for decades afterward. We conclude that while major earthquakes generally do not involve rupture of the entire Mentawai segment, they undoubtedly influence the progression of subsequent ruptures, even beyond their own rupture area. This concept is of vital importance for monitoring and forecasting the progression of the modern rupture sequence.

Turning our attention to the 14th century, we present evidence of a shallow slip event in approximately A.D. 1314, which preceded the “conventional” megathrust rupture sequence. We calculate a suite of slip models, slightly deeper and/or larger than the 2010 Pagai Islands earthquake, that are consistent with the large amount of subsidence recorded at our study site. Sea-level records from older coral microatolls suggest that these events occur at least once every millennium, but likely far less frequently than their great downdip neighbors. The revelation that shallow slip events are important contributors to the seismic cycle of the Mentawai segment further complicates our understanding of this subduction megathrust and our assessment of the region’s exposure to seismic and tsunami hazards.

Finally, we present an outline of the complex intervening rupture sequence that took place in the 16th and 17th centuries, which involved at least five distinct uplift events. We conclude that each of the supercycles had unique features, and all of the types of fault behavior we observe are consistent with highly heterogeneous frictional properties of the megathrust beneath the south-central Mentawai Islands. We conclude that the heterogeneous distribution of asperities produces terminations and overlap zones between fault ruptures, resulting in the seismic “supercycle” phenomenon.

Future of earthquake early warning : quantifying uncertainty and making fast automated decisions for applications

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications.

Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake.

To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that can capture the uncertainties in EEW information and the decision process is used. This approach is called the Performance-Based Earthquake Early Warning, which is based on the PEER Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering method. Use of surrogate models is suggested to improve computational efficiency. Also, new models are proposed to add the influence of lead time into the cost-benefit analysis. For example, a value of information model is used to quantify the potential value of delaying the activation of a mitigation action for a possible reduction of the uncertainty of EEW information in the next update. Two practical examples, evacuation alert and elevator control, are studied to illustrate the ePAD framework. Potential advanced EEW applications, such as the case of multiple-action decisions and the synergy of EEW and structural health monitoring systems, are also discussed.

Seismic structure along transitions from flat to normal subduction: central Mexico, southern Peru, and southwest Japan

The fine-scale seismic structure of the central Mexico, southern Peru, and southwest Japan subduction zones is studied using intraslab earthquakes recorded by temporary and permanent regional seismic arrays. The morphology of the transition from flat to normal subduction is explored in central Mexico and southern Peru, while in southwest Japan the spatial coincidence of a thin ultra-slow velocity layer (USL) atop the flat slab with locations of slow slip events (SSEs) is explored. This USL is also observed in central Mexico and southern Peru, where its lateral extent is used as one constraint on the nature of the flat-to-normal transitions.

In western central Mexico, I find an edge to this USL which is coincident with the western boundary of the projected Orozco Fracture Zone (OFZ) region. Forward modeling of the 2D structure of the subducted Cocos plate using a finite-difference algorithm provides constraints on the velocity and geometry of the slab’s seismic structure in this region and confirms the location of the USL edge. I propose that the Cocos slab is currently fragmenting into a North Cocos plate and a South Cocos plate along the projection of the OFZ, by a process analogous to that which occurred when the Rivera plate separated from the proto-Cocos plate 10 Ma.

In eastern central Mexico, observations of a sharp transition in slab dip near the abrupt end of the Trans Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) suggest a possible slab tear located within the subducted South Cocos plate. The eastern lateral extent of the USL is found to be coincident with these features and with the western boundary of a zone of decreased seismicity, indicating a change in structure which I interpret as evidence of a possible tear. Analysis of intraslab seismicity patterns and focal mechanism orientations and faulting types provides further support for a possible tear in the South Cocos slab. This potential tear, together with the tear along the projection of the OFZ to the northwest, indicates a slab rollback mechanism in which separate slab segments move independently, allowing for mantle flow between the segments.

In southern Peru, observations of a gradual increase in slab dip coupled with a lack of any gaps or vertical offsets in the intraslab seismicity suggest a smooth contortion of the slab. Concentrations of focal mechanisms at orientations which are indicative of slab bending are also observed along the change in slab geometry. The lateral extent of the USL atop the horizontal Nazca slab is found to be coincident with the margin of the projected linear continuation of the subducting Nazca Ridge, implying a causal relationship, but not a slab tear. Waveform modeling of the 2D structure in southern Peru provides constraints on the velocity and geometry of the slab’s seismic structure and confirms the absence of any tears in the slab.

In southwest Japan, I estimate the location of a possible USL along the Philippine Sea slab surface and find this region of low velocity to be coincident with locations of SSEs that have occurred in this region. I interpret the source of the possible USL in this region as fluids dehydrated from the subducting plate, forming a high pore-fluid pressure layer, which would be expected to decrease the coupling on the plate interface and promote SSEs.