Characterization of diverse megathrust fault behavior related to seismic supercycles, Mentawai Islands, Sumatra

Long paleoseismic histories are necessary for understanding the full range of behavior of faults, as the most destructive events often have recurrence intervals longer than local recorded history. The Sunda megathrust, the interface along which the Australian plate subducts beneath Southeast Asia, provides an ideal natural laboratory for determining a detailed paleoseismic history over many seismic cycles. The outer-arc islands above the seismogenic portion of the megathrust cyclically rise and subside in response to processes on the underlying megathrust, providing uncommonly good illumination of megathrust behavior. Furthermore, the growth histories of coral microatolls, which record tectonic uplift and subsidence via relative sea level, can be used to investigate the detailed coseismic and interseismic deformation patterns. One particularly interesting area is the Mentawai segment of the megathrust, which has been shown to characteristically fail in a series of ruptures over decades, rather than a single end-to-end rupture. This behavior has been termed a seismic “supercycle.” Prior to the current rupture sequence, which began in 2007, the segment previously ruptured during the 14th century, the late 16th to late 17th century, and most recently during historical earthquakes in 1797 and 1833. In this study, we examine each of these previous supercycles in turn.

First, we expand upon previous analysis of the 1797–1833 rupture sequence with a comprehensive review of previously published coral microatoll data and the addition of a significant amount of new data. We present detailed maps of coseismic uplift during the two great earthquakes and of interseismic deformation during the periods 1755–1833 and 1950–1997 and models of the corresponding slip and coupling on the underlying megathrust. We derive magnitudes of Mw 8.7–9.0 for the two historical earthquakes, and determine that the 1797 earthquake fundamentally changed the state of coupling on the fault for decades afterward. We conclude that while major earthquakes generally do not involve rupture of the entire Mentawai segment, they undoubtedly influence the progression of subsequent ruptures, even beyond their own rupture area. This concept is of vital importance for monitoring and forecasting the progression of the modern rupture sequence.

Turning our attention to the 14th century, we present evidence of a shallow slip event in approximately A.D. 1314, which preceded the “conventional” megathrust rupture sequence. We calculate a suite of slip models, slightly deeper and/or larger than the 2010 Pagai Islands earthquake, that are consistent with the large amount of subsidence recorded at our study site. Sea-level records from older coral microatolls suggest that these events occur at least once every millennium, but likely far less frequently than their great downdip neighbors. The revelation that shallow slip events are important contributors to the seismic cycle of the Mentawai segment further complicates our understanding of this subduction megathrust and our assessment of the region’s exposure to seismic and tsunami hazards.

Finally, we present an outline of the complex intervening rupture sequence that took place in the 16th and 17th centuries, which involved at least five distinct uplift events. We conclude that each of the supercycles had unique features, and all of the types of fault behavior we observe are consistent with highly heterogeneous frictional properties of the megathrust beneath the south-central Mentawai Islands. We conclude that the heterogeneous distribution of asperities produces terminations and overlap zones between fault ruptures, resulting in the seismic “supercycle” phenomenon.

Proximity effect in Ag-Pb alloys

The superconducting properties and the microstructure of the Ag_100-xPb_x alloys, 1 ≤ x ≤ 5, prepared by rapid quenching from the liquid state with and without subsequent heat treatments, have been studied. The x-ray diffraction measurements show that supersaturated solid solutions of Pb in Ag can be obtained up to 3.2 at.% Pb as compared to less than 0.1 at.% Pb at equilibrium. It was found that by suitable heat treatment it is possible to vary the size and distribution of the Pb precipitates in the Ag matrix and reproducible superconducting properties in the alloy can be observed. The superconducting transition temperature of these samples can be qualitatively explained by the Silvert and Singh's theoretical calculation. The theory developed for the case of layer structure can be extended to three dimensions to explain the critical current versus temperature behavior. The critical current versus field behavior of these alloys can be explained by the modification of the Josephson effect. Combining these results together with the critical magnetic field measurements and the microstructure studies of the alloys, it can be concluded that the three-dimensional proximity effect is the main mechanism for the superconductivity in the Ag-Pb alloys. Based on the Hilsch empirical formula which was based on experimental results obtained on layer structures, the experimental data in this investigation show that the electron-phonon-electron interaction in silver is attractive. The interaction parameter NV obtained is approximately 0.06, which would lead to a value of 10^-5 °K for the superconducting transition temperature of Ag. These values are in agreement with other determinations which were done on vapor-deposited metallic film sandwiches. Hence, the Hilsch empirical relation valid for layer structures is also valid in the three-dimensional case. Because the transition temperature and the critical current can be varied in a wide range by controlling the heat treatments, the Ag-Pb superconductors might have some useful applications.

Effects of density differences on lateral mixing in open-channel flows

This study investigates lateral mixing of tracer fluids in turbulent open-channel flows when the tracer and ambient fluids have different densities. Longitudinal dispersion in flows with longitudinal density gradients is investigated also.

Lateral mixing was studied in a laboratory flume by introducing fluid tracers at the ambient flow velocity continuously and uniformly across a fraction of the flume width and over the entire depth of the ambient flow. Fluid samples were taken to obtain concentration distributions in cross-sections at various distances, x, downstream from the tracer source. The data were used to calculate variances of the lateral distributions of the depth-averaged concentration. When there was a difference in density between the tracer and the ambient fluids, lateral mixing close to the source was enhanced by density-induced secondary flows; however, far downstream where the density gradients were small, lateral mixing rates were independent of the initial density difference. A dimensional analysis of the problem and the data show that the normalized variance is a function of only three dimensionless numbers, which represent: (1) the x-coordinate, (2) the source width, and (3) the buoyancy flux from the source.

A simplified set of equations of motion for a fluid with a horizontal density gradient was integrated to give an expression for the density-induced velocity distribution. The dispersion coefficient due to this velocity distribution was also obtained. Using this dispersion coefficient in an analysis for predicting lateral mixing rates in the experiments of this investigation gave only qualitative agreement with the data. However, predicted longitudinal salinity distributions in an idealized laboratory estuary agree well with published data.