The strategic behavior of rational novices

There is a growing amount of experimental evidence that suggests people often deviate from the predictions of game theory. Some scholars attempt to explain the observations by introducing errors into behavioral models. However, most of these modifications are situation dependent and do not generalize. A new theory, called the rational novice model, is introduced as an attempt to provide a general theory that takes account of erroneous behavior. The rational novice model is based on two central principals. The first is that people systematically make inaccurate guesses when they are evaluating their options in a game-like situation. The second is that people treat their decisions similar to a portfolio problem. As a result, non optimal actions in a game theoretic sense may be included in the rational novice strategy profile with positive weights.

The rational novice model can be divided into two parts: the behavioral model and the equilibrium concept. In a theoretical chapter, the mathematics of the behavioral model and the equilibrium concept are introduced. The existence of the equilibrium is established. In addition, the Nash equilibrium is shown to be a special case of the rational novice equilibrium. In another chapter, the rational novice model is applied to a voluntary contribution game. Numerical methods were used to obtain the solution. The model is estimated with data obtained from the Palfrey and Prisbrey experimental study of the voluntary contribution game. It is found that the rational novice model explains the data better than the Nash model. Although a formal statistical test was not used, pseudo R^2 analysis indicates that the rational novice model is better than a Probit model similar to the one used in the Palfrey and Prisbrey study.

The rational novice model is also applied to a first price sealed bid auction. Again, computing techniques were used to obtain a numerical solution. The data obtained from the Chen and Plott study were used to estimate the model. The rational novice model outperforms the CRRAM, the primary Nash model studied in the Chen and Plott study. However, the rational novice model is not the best amongst all models. A sophisticated rule-of-thumb, called the SOPAM, offers the best explanation of the data.

Mathematical study of complex networks : brain, internet, and power grid

The dissertation is concerned with the mathematical study of various network problems. First, three real-world networks are considered: (i) the human brain network (ii) communication networks, (iii) electric power networks. Although these networks perform very different tasks, they share similar mathematical foundations. The high-level goal is to analyze and/or synthesis each of these systems from a “control and optimization” point of view. After studying these three real-world networks, two abstract network problems are also explored, which are motivated by power systems. The first one is “flow optimization over a flow network” and the second one is “nonlinear optimization over a generalized weighted graph”. The results derived in this dissertation are summarized below.

Brain Networks: Neuroimaging data reveals the coordinated activity of spatially distinct brain regions, which may be represented mathematically as a network of nodes (brain regions) and links (interdependencies). To obtain the brain connectivity network, the graphs associated with the correlation matrix and the inverse covariance matrix—describing marginal and conditional dependencies between brain regions—have been proposed in the literature. A question arises as to whether any of these graphs provides useful information about the brain connectivity. Due to the electrical properties of the brain, this problem will be investigated in the context of electrical circuits. First, we consider an electric circuit model and show that the inverse covariance matrix of the node voltages reveals the topology of the circuit. Second, we study the problem of finding the topology of the circuit based on only measurement. In this case, by assuming that the circuit is hidden inside a black box and only the nodal signals are available for measurement, the aim is to find the topology of the circuit when a limited number of samples are available. For this purpose, we deploy the graphical lasso technique to estimate a sparse inverse covariance matrix. It is shown that the graphical lasso may find most of the circuit topology if the exact covariance matrix is well-conditioned. However, it may fail to work well when this matrix is ill-conditioned. To deal with ill-conditioned matrices, we propose a small modification to the graphical lasso algorithm and demonstrate its performance. Finally, the technique developed in this work will be applied to the resting-state fMRI data of a number of healthy subjects.

Communication Networks: Congestion control techniques aim to adjust the transmission rates of competing users in the Internet in such a way that the network resources are shared efficiently. Despite the progress in the analysis and synthesis of the Internet congestion control, almost all existing fluid models of congestion control assume that every link in the path of a flow observes the original source rate. To address this issue, a more accurate model is derived in this work for the behavior of the network under an arbitrary congestion controller, which takes into account of the effect of buffering (queueing) on data flows. Using this model, it is proved that the well-known Internet congestion control algorithms may no longer be stable for the common pricing schemes, unless a sufficient condition is satisfied. It is also shown that these algorithms are guaranteed to be stable if a new pricing mechanism is used.

Electrical Power Networks: Optimal power flow (OPF) has been one of the most studied problems for power systems since its introduction by Carpentier in 1962. This problem is concerned with finding an optimal operating point of a power network minimizing the total power generation cost subject to network and physical constraints. It is well known that OPF is computationally hard to solve due to the nonlinear interrelation among the optimization variables. The objective is to identify a large class of networks over which every OPF problem can be solved in polynomial time. To this end, a convex relaxation is proposed, which solves the OPF problem exactly for every radial network and every meshed network with a sufficient number of phase shifters, provided power over-delivery is allowed. The concept of “power over-delivery” is equivalent to relaxing the power balance equations to inequality constraints.

Flow Networks: In this part of the dissertation, the minimum-cost flow problem over an arbitrary flow network is considered. In this problem, each node is associated with some possibly unknown injection, each line has two unknown flows at its ends related to each other via a nonlinear function, and all injections and flows need to satisfy certain box constraints. This problem, named generalized network flow (GNF), is highly non-convex due to its nonlinear equality constraints. Under the assumption of monotonicity and convexity of the flow and cost functions, a convex relaxation is proposed, which always finds the optimal injections. A primary application of this work is in the OPF problem. The results of this work on GNF prove that the relaxation on power balance equations (i.e., load over-delivery) is not needed in practice under a very mild angle assumption.

Generalized Weighted Graphs: Motivated by power optimizations, this part aims to find a global optimization technique for a nonlinear optimization defined over a generalized weighted graph. Every edge of this type of graph is associated with a weight set corresponding to the known parameters of the optimization (e.g., the coefficients). The motivation behind this problem is to investigate how the (hidden) structure of a given real/complex valued optimization makes the problem easy to solve, and indeed the generalized weighted graph is introduced to capture the structure of an optimization. Various sufficient conditions are derived, which relate the polynomial-time solvability of different classes of optimization problems to weak properties of the generalized weighted graph such as its topology and the sign definiteness of its weight sets. As an application, it is proved that a broad class of real and complex optimizations over power networks are polynomial-time solvable due to the passivity of transmission lines and transformers.

Phase behavior of complex superprotonic solid acids

Superprotonic phase transitions and thermal behaviors of three complex solid acid systems are presented, namely Rb3H(SO4)2-RbHSO4 system, Rb3H(SeO4)2-Cs3H(SeO4)2 solid solution system, and Cs6(H2SO4)3(H1.5PO4)4. These material systems present a rich set of phase transition characteristics that set them apart from other, simpler solid acids. A.C. impedance spectroscopy, high-temperature X-ray powder diffraction, and thermal analysis, as well as other characterization techniques, were employed to investigate the phase behavior of these systems.

Rb3H(SO4)2 is an atypical member of the M3H(XO4)2 class of compounds (M = alkali metal or NH4+ and X = S or Se) in that a transition to a high-conductivity state involves disproportionation into two phases rather than a simple polymorphic transition [1]. In the present work, investigations of the Rb3H(SO4)2-RbHSO4 system have revealed the disproportionation products to be Rb2SO4 and the previously unknown compound Rb5H3(SO4)4. The new compound becomes stable at a temperature between 25 and 140 °C and is isostructural to a recently reported trigonal phase with space group P3̅m of Cs5H3(SO4)4 [2]. At 185 °C the compound undergoes an apparently polymorphic transformation with a heat of transition of 23.8 kJ/mol and a slight additional increase in conductivity.

The compounds Rb3H(SeO4)2 and Cs3H(SeO4)2, though not isomorphous at ambient temperatures, are quintessential examples of superprotonic materials. Both adopt monoclinic structures at ambient temperatures and ultimately transform to a trigonal (R3̅m) superprotonic structure at slightly elevated temperatures, 178 and 183 °C, respectively. The compounds are completely miscible above the superprotonic transition and show extensive solubility below it. Beyond a careful determination of the phase boundaries, we find a remarkable 40-fold increase in the superprotonic conductivity in intermediate compositions rich in Rb as compared to either end-member.

The compound Cs6(H2SO4)3(H1.5PO4)4 is unusual amongst solid acid compounds in that it has a complex cubic structure at ambient temperature and apparently transforms to a simpler cubic structure of the CsCl-type (isostructural with CsH2PO4) at its transition temperature of 100-120 °C [3]. Here it is found that, depending on the level of humidification, the superprotonic transition of this material is superimposed with a decomposition reaction, which involves both exsolution of (liquid) acid and loss of H2O. This reaction can be suppressed by application of sufficiently high humidity, in which case Cs6(H2SO4)3(H1.5PO4)4 undergoes a true superprotonic transition. It is proposed that, under conditions of low humidity, the decomposition/dehydration reaction transforms the compound to Cs6(H2-0.5xSO4)3(H1.5PO4)4-x, also of the CsCl structure type at the temperatures of interest, but with a smaller unit cell. With increasing temperature, the decomposition/dehydration proceeds to greater and greater extent and unit cell of the solid phase decreases. This is identified to be the source of the apparent negative thermal expansion behavior.

References

[1] L.A. Cowan, R.M. Morcos, N. Hatada, A. Navrotsky, S.M. Haile, Solid State Ionics 179 (2008) (9-10) 305.

[2] M. Sakashita, H. Fujihisa, K.I. Suzuki, S. Hayashi, K. Honda, Solid State Ionics 178 (2007) (21-22) 1262.

[3] C.R.I. Chisholm, Superprotonic Phase Transitions in Solid Acids: Parameters affecting the presence and stability of superprotonic transitions in the MHnXO4 family of compounds (X=S, Se, P, As; M=Li, Na, K, NH4, Rb, Cs), Materials Science, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California (2003).

Using space geodesy to constrain variations in seismogenic behavior on subduction megathrusts

The concept of seismogenic asperities and aseismic barriers has become a useful paradigm within which to understand the seismogenic behavior of major faults. Since asperities and barriers can be thought of as defining the potential rupture area of large megathrust earthquakes, it is thus important to identify their respective spatial extents, constrain their temporal longevity, and to develop a physical understanding for their behavior. Space geodesy is making critical contributions to the identification of slip asperities and barriers but progress in many geographical regions depends on improving the accuracy and precision of the basic measurements. This thesis begins with technical developments aimed at improving satellite radar interferometric measurements of ground deformation whereby we introduce an empirical correction algorithm for unwanted effects due to interferometric path delays that are due to spatially and temporally variable radar wave propagation speeds in the atmosphere. In chapter 2, I combine geodetic datasets with complementary spatio-temporal resolutions to improve our understanding of the spatial distribution of crustal deformation sources and their associated temporal evolution – here we use observations from Long Valley Caldera (California) as our test bed. In the third chapter I apply the tools developed in the first two chapters to analyze postseismic deformation associated with the 2010 Mw=8.8 Maule (Chile) earthquake. The result delimits patches where afterslip occurs, explores their relationship to coseismic rupture, quantifies frictional properties associated with inferred patches of afterslip, and discusses the relationship of asperities and barriers to long-term topography. The final chapter investigates interseismic deformation of the eastern Makran subduction zone by using satellite radar interferometry only, and demonstrates that with state-of-art techniques it is possible to quantify tectonic signals with small amplitude and long wavelength. Portions of the eastern Makran for which we estimate low fault coupling correspond to areas where bathymetric features on the downgoing plate are presently subducting, whereas the region of the 1945 M=8.1 earthquake appears to be more highly coupled.

Techniques for strength measurement at high pressures and strain-rates using transverse waves

The study of the strength of a material is relevant to a variety of applications including automobile collisions, armor penetration and inertial confinement fusion. Although dynamic behavior of materials at high pressures and strain-rates has been studied extensively using plate impact experiments, the results provide measurements in one direction only. Material behavior that is dependent on strength is unaccounted for. The research in this study proposes two novel configurations to mitigate this problem.

The first configuration introduced is the oblique wedge experiment, which is comprised of a driver material, an angled target of interest and a backing material used to measure in-situ velocities. Upon impact, a shock wave is generated in the driver material. As the shock encounters the angled target, it is reflected back into the driver and transmitted into the target. Due to the angle of obliquity of the incident wave, a transverse wave is generated that allows the target to be subjected to shear while being compressed by the initial longitudinal shock such that the material does not slip. Using numerical simulations, this study shows that a variety of oblique wedge configurations can be used to study the shear response of materials and this can be extended to strength measurement as well. Experiments were performed on an oblique wedge setup with a copper impactor, polymethylmethacrylate driver, aluminum 6061-t6 target, and a lithium fluoride window. Particle velocities were measured using laser interferometry and results agree well with the simulations.

The second novel configuration is the y-cut quartz sandwich design, which uses the anisotropic properties of y-cut quartz to generate a shear wave that is transmitted into a thin sample. By using an anvil material to back the thin sample, particle velocities measured at the rear surface of the backing plate can be implemented to calculate the shear stress in the material and subsequently the strength. Numerical simulations were conducted to show that this configuration has the ability to measure the strength for a variety of materials.

Scalable Methods for Deterministic Integration of Quantum Emitters in Photonic Crystal Cavities

We investigated four unique methods for achieving scalable, deterministic integration of quantum emitters into ultra-high Q{V photonic crystal cavities, including selective area heteroepitaxy, engineered photoemission from silicon nanostructures, wafer bonding and dimensional reduction of III-V quantum wells, and cavity-enhanced optical trapping. In these areas, we were able to demonstrate site-selective heteroepitaxy, size-tunable photoluminescence from silicon nanostructures, Purcell modification of QW emission spectra, and limits of cavity-enhanced optical trapping designs which exceed any reports in the literature and suggest the feasibility of capturing- and detecting nanostructures with dimensions below 10 nm. In addition to process scalability and the requirement for achieving accurate spectral- and spatial overlap between the emitter and cavity, these techniques paid specific attention to the ability to separate the cavity and emitter material systems in order to allow optimal selection of these independently, and eventually enable monolithic integration with other photonic and electronic circuitry.

We also developed an analytic photonic crystal design process yielding optimized cavity tapers with minimal computational effort, and reported on a general cavity modification which exhibits improved fabrication tolerance by relying exclusively on positional- rather than dimensional tapering. We compared several experimental coupling techniques for device characterization. Significant efforts were devoted to optimizing cavity fabrication, including the use of atomic layer deposition to improve surface quality, exploration into factors affecting the design fracturing, and automated analysis of SEM images. Using optimized fabrication procedures, we experimentally demonstrated 1D photonic crystal nanobeam cavities exhibiting the highest Q/V reported on substrate. Finally, we analyzed the bistable behavior of the devices to quantify the nonlinear optical response of our cavities.

Force chains, friction, and flow: Behavior of granular media across length scales

We study the behavior of granular materials at three length scales. At the smallest length scale, the grain-scale, we study inter-particle forces and "force chains". Inter-particle forces are the natural building blocks of constitutive laws for granular materials. Force chains are a key signature of the heterogeneity of granular systems. Despite their fundamental importance for calibrating grain-scale numerical models and elucidating constitutive laws, inter-particle forces have not been fully quantified in natural granular materials. We present a numerical force inference technique for determining inter-particle forces from experimental data and apply the technique to two-dimensional and three-dimensional systems under quasi-static and dynamic load. These experiments validate the technique and provide insight into the quasi-static and dynamic behavior of granular materials.

At a larger length scale, the mesoscale, we study the emergent frictional behavior of a collection of grains. Properties of granular materials at this intermediate scale are crucial inputs for macro-scale continuum models. We derive friction laws for granular materials at the mesoscale by applying averaging techniques to grain-scale quantities. These laws portray the nature of steady-state frictional strength as a competition between steady-state dilation and grain-scale dissipation rates. The laws also directly link the rate of dilation to the non-steady-state frictional strength.

At the macro-scale, we investigate continuum modeling techniques capable of simulating the distinct solid-like, liquid-like, and gas-like behaviors exhibited by granular materials in a single computational domain. We propose a Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) approach for granular materials with a viscoplastic constitutive law. The constitutive law uses a rate-dependent and dilation-dependent friction law. We provide a theoretical basis for a dilation-dependent friction law using similar analysis to that performed at the mesoscale. We provide several qualitative and quantitative validations of the technique and discuss ongoing work aiming to couple the granular flow with gas and fluid flows.

Finite-Element Simulations of Earthquakes

This thesis discusses simulations of earthquake ground motions using prescribed ruptures and dynamic failure. Introducing sliding degrees of freedom led to an innovative technique for numerical modeling of earthquake sources. This technique allows efficient implementation of both prescribed ruptures and dynamic failure on an arbitrarily oriented fault surface. Off the fault surface the solution of the three-dimensional, dynamic elasticity equation uses well known finite-element techniques. We employ parallel processing to efficiently compute the ground motions in domains containing millions of degrees of freedom.

Using prescribed ruptures we study the sensitivity of long-period near-source ground motions to five earthquake source parameters for hypothetical events on a strike-slip fault (M_w 7.0 to 7.1) and a thrust fault (M_w 6.6 to 7.0). The directivity of the ruptures creates large displacement and velocity pulses in the ground motions in the forward direction. We found a good match between the severity of the shaking and the shape of the near-source factor from the 1997 Uniform Building Code for strike-slip faults and thrust faults with surface rupture. However, for blind thrust faults the peak displacement and velocities occur up-dip from the region with the peak near-source factor. We assert that a simple modification to the formulation of the near-source factor improves the match between the severity of the ground motion and the shape of the near-source factor.

For simulations with dynamic failure on a strike-slip fault or a thrust fault, we examine what constraints must be imposed on the coefficient of friction to produce realistic ruptures under the application of reasonable shear and normal stress distributions with depth. We found that variation of the coefficient of friction with the shear modulus and the depth produces realistic rupture behavior in both homogeneous and layered half-spaces. Furthermore, we observed a dependence of the rupture speed on the direction of propagation and fluctuations in the rupture speed and slip rate as the rupture encountered changes in the stress field. Including such behavior in prescribed ruptures would yield more realistic ground motions.

A novel methodology for simulating contact-line behavior in capillary-driven flows

Despite the wide swath of applications where multiphase fluid contact lines exist, there is still no consensus on an accurate and general simulation methodology. Most prior numerical work has imposed one of the many dynamic contact-angle theories at solid walls. Such approaches are inherently limited by the theory accuracy. In fact, when inertial effects are important, the contact angle may be history dependent and, thus, any single mathematical function is inappropriate. Given these limitations, the present work has two primary goals: 1) create a numerical framework that allows the contact angle to evolve naturally with appropriate contact-line physics and 2) develop equations and numerical methods such that contact-line simulations may be performed on coarse computational meshes.

Fluid flows affected by contact lines are dominated by capillary stresses and require accurate curvature calculations. The level set method was chosen to track the fluid interfaces because it is easy to calculate interface curvature accurately. Unfortunately, the level set reinitialization suffers from an ill-posed mathematical problem at contact lines: a ``blind spot'' exists. Standard techniques to handle this deficiency are shown to introduce parasitic velocity currents that artificially deform freely floating (non-prescribed) contact angles. As an alternative, a new relaxation equation reinitialization is proposed to remove these spurious velocity currents and its concept is further explored with level-set extension velocities.

To capture contact-line physics, two classical boundary conditions, the Navier-slip velocity boundary condition and a fixed contact angle, are implemented in direct numerical simulations (DNS). DNS are found to converge only if the slip length is well resolved by the computational mesh. Unfortunately, since the slip length is often very small compared to fluid structures, these simulations are not computationally feasible for large systems. To address the second goal, a new methodology is proposed which relies on the volumetric-filtered Navier-Stokes equations. Two unclosed terms, an average curvature and a viscous shear VS, are proposed to represent the missing microscale physics on a coarse mesh.

All of these components are then combined into a single framework and tested for a water droplet impacting a partially-wetting substrate. Very good agreement is found for the evolution of the contact diameter in time between the experimental measurements and the numerical simulation. Such comparison would not be possible with prior methods, since the Reynolds number Re and capillary number Ca are large. Furthermore, the experimentally approximated slip length ratio is well outside of the range currently achievable by DNS. This framework is a promising first step towards simulating complex physics in capillary-dominated flows at a reasonable computational expense.