Optimal procurement and contracting with research and development

Government procurement of a new good or service is a process that usually includes basic research, development, and production. Empirical evidences indicate that investments in research and development (R and D) before production are significant in many defense procurements. Thus, optimal procurement policy should not be only to select the most efficient producer, but also to induce the contractors to design the best product and to develop the best technology. It is difficult to apply the current economic theory of optimal procurement and contracting, which has emphasized production, but ignored R and D, to many cases of procurement.

In this thesis, I provide basic models of both R and D and production in the procurement process where a number of firms invest in private R and D and compete for a government contract. R and D is modeled as a stochastic cost-reduction process. The government is considered both as a profit-maximizer and a procurement cost minimizer. In comparison to the literature, the following results derived from my models are significant. First, R and D matters in procurement contracting. When offering the optimal contract the government will be better off if it correctly takes into account costly private R and D investment. Second, competition matters. The optimal contract and the total equilibrium R and D expenditures vary with the number of firms. The government usually does not prefer infinite competition among firms. Instead, it prefers free entry of firms. Third, under a R and D technology with the constant marginal returns-to-scale, it is socially optimal to have only one firm to conduct all of the R and D and production. Fourth, in an independent private values environment with risk-neutral firms, an informed government should select one of four standard auction procedures with an appropriate announced reserve price, acting as if it does not have any private information.

Nonexistence of looping trajectories in hydromagnetic waves of finite amplitude. Breaking of waves in a cold collision-free plasma in a magnetic field. On stabilities of periodic waves in a cold collision-free plasma in a magnetic field.

This dissertation consists of three parts. In Part I, it is shown that looping trajectories cannot exist in finite amplitude stationary hydromagnetic waves propagating across a magnetic field in a quasi-neutral cold collision-free plasma. In Part II, time-dependent solutions in series expansion are presented for the magnetic piston problem, which describes waves propagating into a quasi-neutral cold collision-free plasma, ensuing from magnetic disturbances on the boundary of the plasma. The expansion is equivalent to Picard's successive approximations. It is then shown that orbit crossings of plasma particles occur on the boundary for strong disturbances and inside the plasma for weak disturbances. In Part III, the existence of periodic waves propagating at an arbitrary angle to the magnetic field in a plasma is demonstrated by Stokes expansions in amplitude. Then stability analysis is made for such periodic waves with respect to side-band frequency disturbances. It is shown that waves of slow mode are unstable whereas waves of fast mode are stable if the frequency is below the cutoff frequency. The cutoff frequency depends on the propagation angle. For longitudinal propagation the cutoff frequency is equal to one-fourth of the electron's gyrofrequency. For transverse propagation the cutoff frequency is so high that waves of all frequencies are stable.

A new ground motion intensity measure, peak filtered acceleration (PFA), to estimate collapse vulnerability of buildings in earthquakes

In this thesis, we develop an efficient collapse prediction model, the PFA (Peak Filtered Acceleration) model, for buildings subjected to different types of ground motions.

For the structural system, the PFA model covers modern steel and reinforced concrete moment-resisting frame buildings (potentially reinforced concrete shear wall buildings). For ground motions, the PFA model covers ramp-pulse-like ground motions, long-period ground motions, and short-period ground motions.

To predict whether a building will collapse in response to a given ground motion, we first extract long-period components from the ground motion using a Butterworth low-pass filter with suggested order and cutoff frequency. The order depends on the type of ground motion, and the cutoff frequency depends on the building’s natural frequency and ductility. We then compare the filtered acceleration time history with the capacity of the building. The capacity of the building is a constant for 2-dimentional buildings and a limit domain for 3-dimentional buildings. If the filtered acceleration exceeds the building’s capacity, the building is predicted to collapse. Otherwise, it is expected to survive the ground motion.

The parameters used in PFA model, which include fundamental period, global ductility and lateral capacity, can be obtained either from numerical analysis or interpolation based on the reference building system proposed in this thesis.

The PFA collapse prediction model greatly reduces computational complexity while archiving good accuracy. It is verified by FEM simulations of 13 frame building models and 150 ground motion records.

Based on the developed collapse prediction model, we propose to use PFA (Peak Filtered Acceleration) as a new ground motion intensity measure for collapse prediction. We compare PFA with traditional intensity measures PGA, PGV, PGD, and Sa in collapse prediction and find that PFA has the best performance among all the intensity measures.

We also provide a close form in term of a vector intensity measure (PGV, PGD) of the PFA collapse prediction model for practical collapse risk assessment.

Polymerization of functionalized olefins with neutral group ten catalysts

This thesis describes the preparation, characterization, and application of welldefined single-component group ten salicylaldimine complexes for the polymerization of ethylene to high molecular weight materials as well as the copolymerization of ethylene and functionalized olefins. After an initial introduction to the field, Chapter 2 describes the preparation of PPh₃ complexes that contain a series of modified salicylaldimine and naphthaldimine ligands. Such complexes were activated for polymerization by the addition of cocatalysts such as Ni(COD)₂ or B(C₆F₅)₃. As the steric demand of the ligand set increased-the molecular weight, polymerization activity, and lifetime of the catalyst was observed to increase. In fact, complexes containing "bulky" ligands, such as the [^Anthr,HSal] ligand (2.5), were found to be highly-active single component complexes for the polymerization of ethylene. Model hydrido compound were prepared-allowing for a better understanding of both the mechanism of polymerization and one mode of decomposition.

Chapter 3 describes the effect which additives play on neutral Ni^II polymerization catalysts such as 2.5. The addition of excess ethers, esters, ketones, anhydrides, alcohols, and water do not deactivate the catalysts for polymerization. However, the addition of excess acid, thiols, and phosphines was observed to shut-down catalysis. Since excess phosphine was found to inhibit catalysis, "phosphine-free" complexes, such as the acetonittile complex (3.26), were prepared. The acetonitrile complex was found to be the most active neutral polymerization catalyst prepared to date.

Chapter 4 outlines the use of catalyst 2.5 and 3.26 for the preparation of linear functionalized copolymers containing alcohols, esters, anhydrides, and ethers. Copolymers can be prepared with γ-functionalized-α-olefins, functionalized norbornenes, and functionalized tricyclononenes, with up to 30 mol% comonomer incorporation.

Chapter 5 outlines the preparation of a series of Pt^II alkyl/olefin salicylaldimine complexes which serve as models for the active species in the Ni^II-catalyzed polymerization process. Understanding the nature of the M-olefin interaction as a the electronic and steric properties of the salicylaldimine ligand is varied has allowed for a number of predictions about the design of future polymerization systems.

Quantifying Earthquake Collapse Risk of Tall Steel Braced Frame Buildings Using Rupture-to-Rafters Simulations

This thesis examines collapse risk of tall steel braced frame buildings using rupture-to-rafters simulations due to suite of San Andreas earthquakes. Two key advancements in this work are the development of (i) a rational methodology for assigning scenario earthquake probabilities and (ii) an artificial correction-free approach to broadband ground motion simulation. The work can be divided into the following sections: earthquake source modeling, earthquake probability calculations, ground motion simulations, building response, and performance analysis.

As a first step the kinematic source inversions of past earthquakes in the magnitude range of 6-8 are used to simulate 60 scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. For each scenario earthquake a 30-year occurrence probability is calculated and we present a rational method to redistribute the forecast earthquake probabilities from UCERF to the simulated scenario earthquake. We illustrate the inner workings of the method through an example involving earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in southern California.

Next, three-component broadband ground motion histories are computed at 636 sites in the greater Los Angeles metropolitan area by superposing short-period (0.2~s-2.0~s) empirical Green's function synthetics on top of long-period ($>$ 2.0~s) spectral element synthetics. We superimpose these seismograms on low-frequency seismograms, computed from kinematic source models using the spectral element method, to produce broadband seismograms.

Using the ground motions at 636 sites for the 60 scenario earthquakes, 3-D nonlinear analysis of several variants of an 18-story steel braced frame building, designed for three soil types using the 1994 and 1997 Uniform Building Code provisions and subjected to these ground motions, are conducted. Model performance is classified into one of five performance levels: Immediate Occupancy, Life Safety, Collapse Prevention, Red-Tagged, and Model Collapse. The results are combined with the 30-year probability of occurrence of the San Andreas scenario earthquakes using the PEER performance based earthquake engineering framework to determine the probability of exceedance of these limit states over the next 30 years.