An economic approach to consumer product ratings

In three essays we examine user-generated product ratings with aggregation. While recommendation systems have been studied extensively, this simple type of recommendation system has been neglected, despite its prevalence in the field. We develop a novel theoretical model of user-generated ratings. This model improves upon previous work in three ways: it considers rational agents and allows them to abstain from rating when rating is costly; it incorporates rating aggregation (such as averaging ratings); and it considers the effect on rating strategies of multiple simultaneous raters. In the first essay we provide a partial characterization of equilibrium behavior. In the second essay we test this theoretical model in laboratory, and in the third we apply established behavioral models to the data generated in the lab. This study provides clues to the prevalence of extreme-valued ratings in field implementations. We show theoretically that in equilibrium, ratings distributions do not represent the value distributions of sincere ratings. Indeed, we show that if rating strategies follow a set of regularity conditions, then in equilibrium the rate at which players participate is increasing in the extremity of agents' valuations of the product. This theoretical prediction is realized in the lab. We also find that human subjects show a disproportionate predilection for sincere rating, and that when they do send insincere ratings, they are almost always in the direction of exaggeration. Both sincere and exaggerated ratings occur with great frequency despite the fact that such rating strategies are not in subjects' best interest. We therefore apply the behavioral concepts of quantal response equilibrium (QRE) and cursed equilibrium (CE) to the experimental data. Together, these theories explain the data significantly better than does a theory of rational, Bayesian behavior -- accurately predicting key comparative statics. However, the theories fail to predict the high rates of sincerity, and it is clear that a better theory is needed.

Mathematical study of complex networks : brain, internet, and power grid

The dissertation is concerned with the mathematical study of various network problems. First, three real-world networks are considered: (i) the human brain network (ii) communication networks, (iii) electric power networks. Although these networks perform very different tasks, they share similar mathematical foundations. The high-level goal is to analyze and/or synthesis each of these systems from a “control and optimization” point of view. After studying these three real-world networks, two abstract network problems are also explored, which are motivated by power systems. The first one is “flow optimization over a flow network” and the second one is “nonlinear optimization over a generalized weighted graph”. The results derived in this dissertation are summarized below.

Brain Networks: Neuroimaging data reveals the coordinated activity of spatially distinct brain regions, which may be represented mathematically as a network of nodes (brain regions) and links (interdependencies). To obtain the brain connectivity network, the graphs associated with the correlation matrix and the inverse covariance matrix—describing marginal and conditional dependencies between brain regions—have been proposed in the literature. A question arises as to whether any of these graphs provides useful information about the brain connectivity. Due to the electrical properties of the brain, this problem will be investigated in the context of electrical circuits. First, we consider an electric circuit model and show that the inverse covariance matrix of the node voltages reveals the topology of the circuit. Second, we study the problem of finding the topology of the circuit based on only measurement. In this case, by assuming that the circuit is hidden inside a black box and only the nodal signals are available for measurement, the aim is to find the topology of the circuit when a limited number of samples are available. For this purpose, we deploy the graphical lasso technique to estimate a sparse inverse covariance matrix. It is shown that the graphical lasso may find most of the circuit topology if the exact covariance matrix is well-conditioned. However, it may fail to work well when this matrix is ill-conditioned. To deal with ill-conditioned matrices, we propose a small modification to the graphical lasso algorithm and demonstrate its performance. Finally, the technique developed in this work will be applied to the resting-state fMRI data of a number of healthy subjects.

Communication Networks: Congestion control techniques aim to adjust the transmission rates of competing users in the Internet in such a way that the network resources are shared efficiently. Despite the progress in the analysis and synthesis of the Internet congestion control, almost all existing fluid models of congestion control assume that every link in the path of a flow observes the original source rate. To address this issue, a more accurate model is derived in this work for the behavior of the network under an arbitrary congestion controller, which takes into account of the effect of buffering (queueing) on data flows. Using this model, it is proved that the well-known Internet congestion control algorithms may no longer be stable for the common pricing schemes, unless a sufficient condition is satisfied. It is also shown that these algorithms are guaranteed to be stable if a new pricing mechanism is used.

Electrical Power Networks: Optimal power flow (OPF) has been one of the most studied problems for power systems since its introduction by Carpentier in 1962. This problem is concerned with finding an optimal operating point of a power network minimizing the total power generation cost subject to network and physical constraints. It is well known that OPF is computationally hard to solve due to the nonlinear interrelation among the optimization variables. The objective is to identify a large class of networks over which every OPF problem can be solved in polynomial time. To this end, a convex relaxation is proposed, which solves the OPF problem exactly for every radial network and every meshed network with a sufficient number of phase shifters, provided power over-delivery is allowed. The concept of “power over-delivery” is equivalent to relaxing the power balance equations to inequality constraints.

Flow Networks: In this part of the dissertation, the minimum-cost flow problem over an arbitrary flow network is considered. In this problem, each node is associated with some possibly unknown injection, each line has two unknown flows at its ends related to each other via a nonlinear function, and all injections and flows need to satisfy certain box constraints. This problem, named generalized network flow (GNF), is highly non-convex due to its nonlinear equality constraints. Under the assumption of monotonicity and convexity of the flow and cost functions, a convex relaxation is proposed, which always finds the optimal injections. A primary application of this work is in the OPF problem. The results of this work on GNF prove that the relaxation on power balance equations (i.e., load over-delivery) is not needed in practice under a very mild angle assumption.

Generalized Weighted Graphs: Motivated by power optimizations, this part aims to find a global optimization technique for a nonlinear optimization defined over a generalized weighted graph. Every edge of this type of graph is associated with a weight set corresponding to the known parameters of the optimization (e.g., the coefficients). The motivation behind this problem is to investigate how the (hidden) structure of a given real/complex valued optimization makes the problem easy to solve, and indeed the generalized weighted graph is introduced to capture the structure of an optimization. Various sufficient conditions are derived, which relate the polynomial-time solvability of different classes of optimization problems to weak properties of the generalized weighted graph such as its topology and the sign definiteness of its weight sets. As an application, it is proved that a broad class of real and complex optimizations over power networks are polynomial-time solvable due to the passivity of transmission lines and transformers.

Design, specification, and synthesis of aircraft electric power systems control logic

Cyber-physical systems integrate computation, networking, and physical processes. Substantial research challenges exist in the design and verification of such large-scale, distributed sensing, ac- tuation, and control systems. Rapidly improving technology and recent advances in control theory, networked systems, and computer science give us the opportunity to drastically improve our approach to integrated flow of information and cooperative behavior. Current systems rely on text-based spec- ifications and manual design. Using new technology advances, we can create easier, more efficient, and cheaper ways of developing these control systems. This thesis will focus on design considera- tions for system topologies, ways to formally and automatically specify requirements, and methods to synthesize reactive control protocols, all within the context of an aircraft electric power system as a representative application area.

This thesis consists of three complementary parts: synthesis, specification, and design. The first section focuses on the synthesis of central and distributed reactive controllers for an aircraft elec- tric power system. This approach incorporates methodologies from computer science and control. The resulting controllers are correct by construction with respect to system requirements, which are formulated using the specification language of linear temporal logic (LTL). The second section addresses how to formally specify requirements and introduces a domain-specific language for electric power systems. A software tool automatically converts high-level requirements into LTL and synthesizes a controller.

The final sections focus on design space exploration. A design methodology is proposed that uses mixed-integer linear programming to obtain candidate topologies, which are then used to synthesize controllers. The discrete-time control logic is then verified in real-time by two methods: hardware and simulation. Finally, the problem of partial observability and dynamic state estimation is ex- plored. Given a set placement of sensors on an electric power system, measurements from these sensors can be used in conjunction with control logic to infer the state of the system.

Singularities and horizons in the collisions of gravitational waves

This thesis presents a study of the dynamical, nonlinear interaction of colliding gravitational waves, as described by classical general relativity. It is focused mainly on two fundamental questions: First, what is the general structure of the singularities and Killing-Cauchy horizons produced in the collisions of exactly plane-symmetric gravitational waves? Second, under what conditions will the collisions of almost-plane gravitational waves (waves with large but finite transverse sizes) produce singularities?

In the work on the collisions of exactly-plane waves, it is shown that Killing horizons in any plane-symmetric spacetime are unstable against small plane-symmetric perturbations. It is thus concluded that the Killing-Cauchy horizons produced by the collisions of some exactly plane gravitational waves are nongeneric, and that generic initial data for the colliding plane waves always produce "pure" spacetime singularities without such horizons. This conclusion is later proved rigorously (using the full nonlinear theory rather than perturbation theory), in connection with an analysis of the asymptotic singularity structure of a general colliding plane-wave spacetime. This analysis also proves that asymptotically the singularities created by colliding plane waves are of inhomogeneous-Kasner type; the asymptotic Kasner axes and exponents of these singularities in general depend on the spatial coordinate that runs tangentially to the singularity in the non-plane-symmetric direction.

In the work on collisions of almost-plane gravitational waves, first some general properties of single almost-plane gravitational-wave spacetimes are explored. It is shown that, by contrast with an exact plane wave, an almost-plane gravitational wave cannot have a propagation direction that is Killing; i.e., it must diffract and disperse as it propagates. It is also shown that an almost-plane wave cannot be precisely sandwiched between two null wavefronts; i.e., it must leave behind tails in the spacetime region through which it passes. Next, the occurrence of spacetime singularities in the collisions of almost-plane waves is investigated. It is proved that if two colliding, almost-plane gravitational waves are initially exactly plane-symmetric across a central region of sufficiently large but finite transverse dimensions, then their collision produces a spacetime singularity with the same local structure as in the exact-plane-wave collision. Finally, it is shown that a singularity still forms when the central regions are only approximately plane-symmetric initially. Stated more precisely, it is proved that if the colliding almost-plane waves are initially sufficiently close to being exactly plane-symmetric across a bounded central region of sufficiently large transverse dimensions, then their collision necessarily produces spacetime singularities. In this case, nothing is now known about the local and global structures of the singularities.

Control of dynamical systems with temporal logic specifications

This thesis is motivated by safety-critical applications involving autonomous air, ground, and space vehicles carrying out complex tasks in uncertain and adversarial environments. We use temporal logic as a language to formally specify complex tasks and system properties. Temporal logic specifications generalize the classical notions of stability and reachability that are studied in the control and hybrid systems communities. Given a system model and a formal task specification, the goal is to automatically synthesize a control policy for the system that ensures that the system satisfies the specification. This thesis presents novel control policy synthesis algorithms for optimal and robust control of dynamical systems with temporal logic specifications. Furthermore, it introduces algorithms that are efficient and extend to high-dimensional dynamical systems.

The first contribution of this thesis is the generalization of a classical linear temporal logic (LTL) control synthesis approach to optimal and robust control. We show how we can extend automata-based synthesis techniques for discrete abstractions of dynamical systems to create optimal and robust controllers that are guaranteed to satisfy an LTL specification. Such optimal and robust controllers can be computed at little extra computational cost compared to computing a feasible controller.

The second contribution of this thesis addresses the scalability of control synthesis with LTL specifications. A major limitation of the standard automaton-based approach for control with LTL specifications is that the automaton might be doubly-exponential in the size of the LTL specification. We introduce a fragment of LTL for which one can compute feasible control policies in time polynomial in the size of the system and specification. Additionally, we show how to compute optimal control policies for a variety of cost functions, and identify interesting cases when this can be done in polynomial time. These techniques are particularly relevant for online control, as one can guarantee that a feasible solution can be found quickly, and then iteratively improve on the quality as time permits.

The final contribution of this thesis is a set of algorithms for computing feasible trajectories for high-dimensional, nonlinear systems with LTL specifications. These algorithms avoid a potentially computationally-expensive process of computing a discrete abstraction, and instead compute directly on the system's continuous state space. The first method uses an automaton representing the specification to directly encode a series of constrained-reachability subproblems, which can be solved in a modular fashion by using standard techniques. The second method encodes an LTL formula as mixed-integer linear programming constraints on the dynamical system. We demonstrate these approaches with numerical experiments on temporal logic motion planning problems with high-dimensional (10+ states) continuous systems.

Signal transduction, regulation, and developmental logic of EGFR signalling in C. elegans

RTKs-mediated signaling systems and the pathways with which they interact (e.g., those initiated by G protein-mediated signaling) involve a highly cooperative network that sense a large number of cellular inputs and then integrate, amplify, and process this information to orchestrate an appropriate set of cellular responses. The responses include virtually all aspects of cell function, from the most fundamental (proliferation, differentiation) to the most specialized (movement, metabolism, chemosensation). The basic tenets of RTK signaling system seem rather well established. Yet, new pathways and even new molecular players continue to be discovered. Although we believe that many of the essential modules of RTK signaling system are rather well understood, we have relatively little knowledge of the extent of interaction among these modules and their overall quantitative importance.

My research has encompassed the study of both positive and negative signaling by RTKs in C. elegans. I identified the C. elegans S0S-1 gene and showed that it is necessary for multiple RAS-mediated developmental signals. In addition, I demonstrated that there is a SOS-1-independent signaling during RAS-mediated vulval differentiation. By assessing signal outputs from various triple mutants, I have concluded that this SOS-1-independent signaling is not mediated by PTP-2/SHP-2 or the removal of inhibition by GAP-1/ RasGAP and it is not under regulation by SLI-1/Cb1. I speculate that there is either another exchange factor for RASor an as yet unidentified signaling pathway operating during RAS-mediated vulval induction in C. elegans.

In an attempt to uncover the molecular mechanisms of negative regulation of EGFR signaling by SLI-1/Cb1, I and two other colleagues codiscovered that RING finger domain of SLI-1 is partially dispensable for activity. This structure-function analysis shows that there is an ubiquitin protein ligase-independent activity for SLI-1 in regulating EGFR signaling. Further, we identified an inhibitory tyrosine of LET-23/ EGFR requiring sli-1(+)for its effects: removal of this tyrosine closely mimics loss of sli-1 but not loss of other negative regulator function.

By comparative analysis of two RTK pathways with similar signaling mechanisms, I have found that clr-1, a previously identified negative regulator of egl-15 mediated FGFR signaling, is also involved in let-23 EGFR signaling. The success of this approach promises a similar reciprocal test and could potentially extend to the study of other signaling pathways with similar signaling logic.

Finally, by correlating the developmental expression of lin-3 EGF to let-23 EGFR signaling activity, I demonstrated the existence of reciprocal EGF signaling in coordinating the morphogenesis of epithelia. This developmental logic of EGF signaling could provide a basis to understand a universal mechanism for organogenesis.

The logic of receptor-ligand interactions in the Notch signaling pathway

The Notch signaling pathway enables neighboring cells to coordinate developmental fates in diverse processes such as angiogenesis, neuronal differentiation, and immune system development. Although key components and interactions in the Notch pathway are known, it remains unclear how they work together to determine a cell's signaling state, defined as its quantitative ability to send and receive signals using particular Notch receptors and ligands. Recent work suggests that several aspects of the system can lead to complex signaling behaviors: First, receptors and ligands interact in two distinct ways, inhibiting each other in the same cell (in cis) while productively interacting between cells (in trans) to signal. The ability of a cell to send or receive signals depends strongly on both types of interactions. Second, mammals have multiple types of receptors and ligands, which interact with different strengths, and are frequently co-expressed in natural systems. Third, the three mammalian Fringe proteins can modify receptor-ligand interaction strengths in distinct and ligand-specific ways. Consequently, cells can exhibit non-intuitive signaling states even with relatively few components.

In order to understand what signaling states occur in natural processes, and what types of signaling behaviors they enable, this thesis puts forward a quantitative and predictive model of how the Notch signaling state is determined by the expression levels of receptors, ligands, and Fringe proteins. To specify the parameters of the model, we constructed a set of cell lines that allow control of ligand and Fringe expression level, and readout of the resulting Notch activity. We subjected these cell lines to an assay to quantitatively assess the levels of Notch ligands and receptors on the surface of individual cells. We further analyzed the dependence of these interactions on the level and type of Fringe expression. We developed a mathematical modeling framework that uses these data to predict the signaling states of individual cells from component expression levels. These methods allow us to reconstitute and analyze a diverse set of Notch signaling configurations from the bottom up, and provide a comprehensive view of the signaling repertoire of this major signaling pathway.

Incremental Control Synthesis for Robotics in the Presence of Temporal Logic Specifications

This thesis presents methods for incrementally constructing controllers in the presence of uncertainty and nonlinear dynamics. The basic setting is motion planning subject to temporal logic specifications. Broadly, two categories of problems are treated. The first is reactive formal synthesis when so-called discrete abstractions are available. The fragment of linear-time temporal logic (LTL) known as GR(1) is used to express assumptions about an adversarial environment and requirements of the controller. Two problems of changes to a specification are posed that concern the two major aspects of GR(1): safety and liveness. Algorithms providing incremental updates to strategies are presented as solutions. In support of these, an annotation of strategies is developed that facilitates repeated modifications. A variety of properties are proven about it, including necessity of existence and sufficiency for a strategy to be winning. The second category of problems considered is non-reactive (open-loop) synthesis in the absence of a discrete abstraction. Instead, the presented stochastic optimization methods directly construct a control input sequence that achieves low cost and satisfies a LTL formula. Several relaxations are considered as heuristics to address the rarity of sampling trajectories that satisfy an LTL formula and demonstrated to improve convergence rates for Dubins car and single-integrators subject to a recurrence task.