Robot navigation in dense crowds : statistical models and experimental studies of human robot cooperation

This thesis explores the problem of mobile robot navigation in dense human crowds. We begin by considering a fundamental impediment to classical motion planning algorithms called the freezing robot problem: once the environment surpasses a certain level of complexity, the planner decides that all forward paths are unsafe, and the robot freezes in place (or performs unnecessary maneuvers) to avoid collisions. Since a feasible path typically exists, this behavior is suboptimal. Existing approaches have focused on reducing predictive uncertainty by employing higher fidelity individual dynamics models or heuristically limiting the individual predictive covariance to prevent overcautious navigation. We demonstrate that both the individual prediction and the individual predictive uncertainty have little to do with this undesirable navigation behavior. Additionally, we provide evidence that dynamic agents are able to navigate in dense crowds by engaging in joint collision avoidance, cooperatively making room to create feasible trajectories. We accordingly develop interacting Gaussian processes, a prediction density that captures cooperative collision avoidance, and a "multiple goal" extension that models the goal driven nature of human decision making. Navigation naturally emerges as a statistic of this distribution.

Most importantly, we empirically validate our models in the Chandler dining hall at Caltech during peak hours, and in the process, carry out the first extensive quantitative study of robot navigation in dense human crowds (collecting data on 488 runs). The multiple goal interacting Gaussian processes algorithm performs comparably with human teleoperators in crowd densities nearing 1 person/m², while a state of the art noncooperative planner exhibits unsafe behavior more than 3 times as often as the multiple goal extension, and twice as often as the basic interacting Gaussian process approach. Furthermore, a reactive planner based on the widely used dynamic window approach proves insufficient for crowd densities above 0.55 people/m². We also show that our noncooperative planner or our reactive planner capture the salient characteristics of nearly any dynamic navigation algorithm. For inclusive validation purposes, we show that either our non-interacting planner or our reactive planner captures the salient characteristics of nearly any existing dynamic navigation algorithm. Based on these experimental results and theoretical observations, we conclude that a cooperation model is critical for safe and efficient robot navigation in dense human crowds.

Finally, we produce a large database of ground truth pedestrian crowd data. We make this ground truth database publicly available for further scientific study of crowd prediction models, learning from demonstration algorithms, and human robot interaction models in general.

Statistical and econometric analysis of the treatment of HIV/AIDS

The epidemic of HIV/AIDS in the United States is constantly changing and evolving, starting from patient zero to now an estimated 650,000 to 900,000 Americans infected. The nature and course of HIV changed dramatically with the introduction of antiretrovirals. This discourse examines many different facets of HIV from the beginning where there wasn't any treatment for HIV until the present era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). By utilizing statistical analysis of clinical data, this paper examines where we were, where we are and projections as to where treatment of HIV/AIDS is headed.

Chapter Two describes the datasets that were used for the analyses. The primary database utilized was collected by myself from an outpatient HIV clinic. The data included dates from 1984 until the present. The second database was from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) public dataset. The data from the MACS cover the time between 1984 and October 1992. Comparisons are made between both datasets.

Chapter Three discusses where we were. Before the first anti-HIV drugs (called antiretrovirals) were approved, there was no treatment to slow the progression of HIV. The first generation of antiretrovirals, reverse transcriptase inhibitors such as AZT (zidovudine), DDI (didanosine), DDC (zalcitabine), and D4T (stavudine) provided the first treatment for HIV. The first clinical trials showed that these antiretrovirals had a significant impact on increasing patient survival. The trials also showed that patients on these drugs had increased CD4+ T cell counts. Chapter Three examines the distributions of CD4 T cell counts. The results show that the estimated distributions of CD4 T cell counts are distinctly non-Gaussian. Thus distributional assumptions regarding CD4 T cell counts must be taken, into account when performing analyses with this marker. The results also show the estimated CD4 T cell distributions for each disease stage: asymptomatic, symptomatic and AIDS are non-Gaussian. Interestingly, the distribution of CD4 T cell counts for the asymptomatic period is significantly below that of the CD4 T cell distribution for the uninfected population suggesting that even in patients with no outward symptoms of HIV infection, there exists high levels of immunosuppression.

Chapter Four discusses where we are at present. HIV quickly grew resistant to reverse transcriptase inhibitors which were given sequentially as mono or dual therapy. As resistance grew, the positive effects of the reverse transcriptase inhibitors on CD4 T cell counts and survival dissipated. As the old era faded a new era characterized by a new class of drugs and new technology changed the way that we treat HIV-infected patients. Viral load assays were able to quantify the levels of HIV RNA in the blood. By quantifying the viral load, one now had a faster, more direct way to test antiretroviral regimen efficacy. Protease inhibitors, which attacked a different region of HIV than reverse transcriptase inhibitors, when used in combination with other antiretroviral agents were found to dramatically and significantly reduce the HIV RNA levels in the blood. Patients also experienced significant increases in CD4 T cell counts. For the first time in the epidemic, there was hope. It was hypothesized that with HAART, viral levels could be kept so low that the immune system as measured by CD4 T cell counts would be able to recover. If these viral levels could be kept low enough, it would be possible for the immune system to eradicate the virus. The hypothesis of immune reconstitution, that is bringing CD4 T cell counts up to levels seen in uninfected patients, is tested in Chapter Four. It was found that for these patients, there was not enough of a CD4 T cell increase to be consistent with the hypothesis of immune reconstitution.

In Chapter Five, the effectiveness of long-term HAART is analyzed. Survival analysis was conducted on 213 patients on long-term HAART. The primary endpoint was presence of an AIDS defining illness. A high level of clinical failure, or progression to an endpoint, was found.

Chapter Six yields insights into where we are going. New technology such as viral genotypic testing, that looks at the genetic structure of HIV and determines where mutations have occurred, has shown that HIV is capable of producing resistance mutations that confer multiple drug resistance. This section looks at resistance issues and speculates, ceterus parabis, where the state of HIV is going. This section first addresses viral genotype and the correlates of viral load and disease progression. A second analysis looks at patients who have failed their primary attempts at HAART and subsequent salvage therapy. It was found that salvage regimens, efforts to control viral replication through the administration of different combinations of antiretrovirals, were not effective in 90 percent of the population in controlling viral replication. Thus, primary attempts at therapy offer the best change of viral suppression and delay of disease progression. Documentation of transmission of drug-resistant virus suggests that the public health crisis of HIV is far from over. Drug resistant HIV can sustain the epidemic and hamper our efforts to treat HIV infection. The data presented suggest that the decrease in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV/AIDS is transient. Deaths due to HIV will increase and public health officials must prepare for this eventuality unless new treatments become available. These results also underscore the importance of the vaccine effort.

The final chapter looks at the economic issues related to HIV. The direct and indirect costs of treating HIV/AIDS are very high. For the first time in the epidemic, there exists treatment that can actually slow disease progression. The direct costs for HAART are estimated. It is estimated that the direct lifetime costs for treating each HIV infected patient with HAART is between $353,000 to $598,000 depending on how long HAART prolongs life. If one looks at the incremental cost per year of life saved it is only $101,000. This is comparable with the incremental costs per year of life saved from coronary artery bypass surgery.

Policy makers need to be aware that although HAART can delay disease progression, it is not a cure and HIV is not over. The results presented here suggest that the decreases in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV are transient. Policymakers need to be prepared for the eventual increase in AIDS incidence and mortality. Costs associated with HIV/AIDS are also projected to increase. The cost savings seen recently have been from the dramatic decreases in the incidence of AIDS defining opportunistic infections. As patients who have been on HAART the longest start to progress to AIDS, policymakers and insurance companies will find that the cost of treating HIV/AIDS will increase.

Injection Locked Clocking and Transmitter Equalization Techniques for Chip to Chip Interconnects

Semiconductor technology scaling has enabled drastic growth in the computational capacity of integrated circuits (ICs). This constant growth drives an increasing demand for high bandwidth communication between ICs. Electrical channel bandwidth has not been able to keep up with this demand, making I/O link design more challenging. Interconnects which employ optical channels have negligible frequency dependent loss and provide a potential solution to this I/O bandwidth problem. Apart from the type of channel, efficient high-speed communication also relies on generation and distribution of multi-phase, high-speed, and high-quality clock signals. In the multi-gigahertz frequency range, conventional clocking techniques have encountered several design challenges in terms of power consumption, skew and jitter. Injection-locking is a promising technique to address these design challenges for gigahertz clocking. However, its small locking range has been a major contributor in preventing its ubiquitous acceptance.

In the first part of this dissertation we describe a wideband injection locking scheme in an LC oscillator. Phase locked loop (PLL) and injection locking elements are combined symbiotically to achieve wide locking range while retaining the simplicity of the latter. This method does not require a phase frequency detector or a loop filter to achieve phase lock. A mathematical analysis of the system is presented and the expression for new locking range is derived. A locking range of 13.4 GHz–17.2 GHz (25%) and an average jitter tracking bandwidth of up to 400 MHz are measured in a high-Q LC oscillator. This architecture is used to generate quadrature phases from a single clock without any frequency division. It also provides high frequency jitter filtering while retaining the low frequency correlated jitter essential for forwarded clock receivers.

To improve the locking range of an injection locked ring oscillator; QLL (Quadrature locked loop) is introduced. The inherent dynamics of injection locked quadrature ring oscillator are used to improve its locking range from 5% (7-7.4GHz) to 90% (4-11GHz). The QLL is used to generate accurate clock phases for a four channel optical receiver using a forwarded clock at quarter-rate. The QLL drives an injection locked oscillator (ILO) at each channel without any repeaters for local quadrature clock generation. Each local ILO has deskew capability for phase alignment. The optical-receiver uses the inherent frequency to voltage conversion provided by the QLL to dynamically body bias its devices. A wide locking range of the QLL helps to achieve a reliable data-rate of 16-32Gb/s and adaptive body biasing aids in maintaining an ultra-low power consumption of 153pJ/bit.

From the optical receiver we move on to discussing a non-linear equalization technique for a vertical-cavity surface-emitting laser (VCSEL) based optical transmitter, to enable low-power, high-speed optical transmission. A non-linear time domain optical model of the VCSEL is built and evaluated for accuracy. The modelling shows that, while conventional FIR-based pre-emphasis works well for LTI electrical channels, it is not optimum for the non-linear optical frequency response of the VCSEL. Based on the simulations of the model an optimum equalization methodology is derived. The equalization technique is used to achieve a data-rate of 20Gb/s with power efficiency of 0.77pJ/bit.

Contribution of the temporoammonic pathway to hippocampal processing

The temporoammonic (TA) pathway is the direct, monosynaptic projection from layer III of entorhinal cortex to the distal dendritic region of area CA1 of the hippo­ campus. Although this pathway has been implicated in various functions, such as memory encoding and retrieval, spatial navigation, generation of oscillatory activity, and control of hippocampal excitability, the details of its physiology are not well understood. In this thesis, I examine the contribution of the TA pathway to hippocampal processing. I find that, as has been previously reported, the TA pathway includes both excitatory, glutamatergic components and inhibitory, GABAergic components. Several new discoveries are reported in this thesis. I show that the TA pathway is subject to forms of short-term activity-dependent regulation, including paired-pulse and frequency­ dependent plasticity, similar to other hippocampal pathways such as the Schaffer collateral (SC) input from CA3 to CA1. The TA pathway provides a strongly excitatory input to stratum radiatum giant cells of CA1. The excitatory component of the TA pathway undergoes a long-lasting decrease in synaptic strength following low-frequency stimulation in a manner partially dependent on the activation of NMDA receptors. High­ frequency activation of the TA pathway recruits a feedforward inhibition that can prevent CA1 pyramidal cells from spiking in response to SC input; this spike-blocking effect shows that the TA pathway can act to regulate information flow through the hippocampal trisynaptic pathway.

Using Earth Deformation Caused by Surface Mass Loading to Constrain the Elastic Structure of the Crust and Mantle

Surface mass loads come in many different varieties, including the oceans, atmosphere, rivers, lakes, glaciers, ice caps, and snow fields. The loads migrate over Earth's surface on time scales that range from less than a day to many thousand years. The weights of the shifting loads exert normal forces on Earth's surface. Since the Earth is not perfectly rigid, the applied pressure deforms the shape of the solid Earth in a manner controlled by the material properties of Earth's interior. One of the most prominent types of surface mass loading, ocean tidal loading (OTL), comes from the periodic rise and fall in sea-surface height due to the gravitational influence of celestial objects, such as the moon and sun. Depending on geographic location, the surface displacements induced by OTL typically range from millimeters to several centimeters in amplitude, which may be inferred from Global Navigation and Satellite System (GNSS) measurements with sub-millimeter precision. Spatiotemporal characteristics of observed OTL-induced surface displacements may therefore be exploited to probe Earth structure. In this thesis, I present descriptions of contemporary observational and modeling techniques used to explore Earth's deformation response to OTL and other varieties of surface mass loading. With the aim to extract information about Earth's density and elastic structure from observations of the response to OTL, I investigate the sensitivity of OTL-induced surface displacements to perturbations in the material structure. As a case study, I compute and compare the observed and predicted OTL-induced surface displacements for a network of GNSS receivers across South America. The residuals in three distinct and dominant tidal bands are sub-millimeter in amplitude, indicating that modern ocean-tide and elastic-Earth models well predict the observed displacement response in that region. Nevertheless, the sub-millimeter residuals exhibit regional spatial coherency that cannot be explained entirely by random observational uncertainties and that suggests deficiencies in the forward-model assumptions. In particular, the discrepancies may reveal sensitivities to deviations from spherically symmetric, non-rotating, elastic, and isotropic (SNREI) Earth structure due to the presence of the South American craton.