Measurement of genetic structure within populations using Moran's spatial autocorrelation statistics.

Spatial structure of genetic variation within populations, an important interacting influence on evolutionary and ecological processes, can be analyzed in detail by using spatial autocorrelation statistics. This paper characterizes the statistical properties of spatial autocorrelation statistics in this context and develops estimators of gene dispersal based on data on standing patterns of genetic variation. Large numbers of Monte Carlo simulations and a wide variety of sampling strategies are utilized. The results show that spatial autocorrelation statistics are highly predictable and informative. Thus, strong hypothesis tests for neutral theory can be formulated. Most strikingly, robust estimators of gene dispersal can be obtained with practical sample sizes. Details about optimal sampling strategies are also described.

Analysis of variable (diversity) joining recombination in DNAdependent protein kinase (DNA-PK)-deficient mice reveals DNA-PK-independent pathways for both signal and coding joint formation

Previous studies have suggested that ionizing radiation causes irreparable DNA double-strand breaks in mice and cell lines harboring mutations in any of the three subunits of DNA-dependent protein kinase (DNA-PK) (the catalytic subunit, DNA-PKcs, or one of the DNA-binding subunits, Ku70 or Ku86). In actuality, these mutants vary in their ability to resolve double-strand breaks generated during variable (diversity) joining [V(D)J] recombination. Mutant cell lines and mice with targeted deletions in Ku70 or Ku86 are severely compromised in their ability to form coding and signal joints, the products of V(D)J recombination. It is noteworthy, however, that severe combined immunodeficient (SCID) mice, which bear a nonnull mutation in DNA-PKcs, are substantially less impaired in forming signal joints than coding joints. The current view holds that the defective protein encoded by the murine SCID allele retains enough residual function to support signal joint formation. An alternative hypothesis proposes that DNA-PKcs and Ku perform different roles in V(D)J recombination, with DNA-PKcs required only for coding joint formation. To resolve this issue, we examined V(D)J recombination in DNA-PKcs-deficient (SLIP) mice. We found that the effects of this mutation on coding and signal joint formation are identical to the effects of the SCID mutation. Signal joints are formed at levels 10-fold lower than in wild type, and one-half of these joints are aberrant. These data are incompatible with the notion that signal joint formation in SCID mice results from residual DNA-PKcs function, and suggest a third possibility: that DNA-PKcs normally plays an important but nonessential role in signal joint formation.

Hypothesis testing and earthquake prediction.

Requirements for testing include advance specification of the conditional rate density (probability per unit time, area, and magnitude) or, alternatively, probabilities for specified intervals of time, space, and magnitude. Here I consider testing fully specified hypotheses, with no parameter adjustments or arbitrary decisions allowed during the test period. Because it may take decades to validate prediction methods, it is worthwhile to formulate testable hypotheses carefully in advance. Earthquake prediction generally implies that the probability will be temporarily higher than normal. Such a statement requires knowledge of "normal behavior"--that is, it requires a null hypothesis. Hypotheses can be tested in three ways: (i) by comparing the number of actual earth-quakes to the number predicted, (ii) by comparing the likelihood score of actual earthquakes to the predicted distribution, and (iii) by comparing the likelihood ratio to that of a null hypothesis. The first two tests are purely self-consistency tests, while the third is a direct comparison of two hypotheses. Predictions made without a statement of probability are very difficult to test, and any test must be based on the ratio of earthquakes in and out of the forecast regions.