Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction.

The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance Dc, apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time-dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of Dc apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of Dc is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks.

Nonuniformity of the constitutive law parameters for shear rupture and quasistatic nucleation to dynamic rupture: a physical model of earthquake generation processes.

Based on the recent high-resolution laboratory experiments on propagating shear rupture, the constitutive law that governs shear rupture processes is discussed in view of the physical principles and constraints, and a specific constitutive law is proposed for shear rupture. It is demonstrated that nonuniform distributions of the constitutive law parameters on the fault are necessary for creating the nucleation process, which consists of two phases: (i) a stable, quasistatic phase, and (ii) the subsequent accelerating phase. Physical models of the breakdown zone and the nucleation zone are presented for shear rupture in the brittle regime. The constitutive law for shear rupture explicitly includes a scaling parameter Dc that enables one to give a common interpretation to both small scale rupture in the laboratory and large scale rupture as earthquake source in the Earth. Both the breakdown zone size Xc and the nucleation zone size L are prescribed and scaled by Dc, which in turn is prescribed by a characteristic length lambda c representing geometrical irregularities of the fault. The models presented here make it possible to understand the earthquake generation process from nucleation to unstable, dynamic rupture propagation in terms of physics. Since the nucleation process itself is an immediate earthquake precursor, deep understanding of the nucleation process in terms of physics is crucial for the short-term (or immediate) earthquake prediction.

Slip complexity in earthquake fault models.

We summarize studies of earthquake fault models that give rise to slip complexities like those in natural earthquakes. For models of smooth faults between elastically deformable continua, it is critical that the friction laws involve a characteristic distance for slip weakening or evolution of surface state. That results in a finite nucleation size, or coherent slip patch size, h*. Models of smooth faults, using numerical cell size properly small compared to h*, show periodic response or complex and apparently chaotic histories of large events but have not been found to show small event complexity like the self-similar (power law) Gutenberg-Richter frequency-size statistics. This conclusion is supported in the present paper by fully inertial elastodynamic modeling of earthquake sequences. In contrast, some models of locally heterogeneous faults with quasi-independent fault segments, represented approximately by simulations with cell size larger than h* so that the model becomes "inherently discrete," do show small event complexity of the Gutenberg-Richter type. Models based on classical friction laws without a weakening length scale or for which the numerical procedure imposes an abrupt strength drop at the onset of slip have h* = 0 and hence always fall into the inherently discrete class. We suggest that the small-event complexity that some such models show will not survive regularization of the constitutive description, by inclusion of an appropriate length scale leading to a finite h*, and a corresponding reduction of numerical grid size.

The organization of seismicity on fault networks.

Although models of homogeneous faults develop seismicity that has a Gutenberg-Richter distribution, this is only a transient state that is followed by events that are strongly influenced by the nature of the boundaries. Models with geometrical inhomogeneities of fracture thresholds can limit the sizes of earthquakes but now favor the characteristic earthquake model for large earthquakes. The character of the seismicity is extremely sensitive to distributions of inhomogeneities, suggesting that statistical rules for large earthquakes in one region may not be applicable to large earthquakes in another region. Model simulations on simple networks of faults with inhomogeneities of threshold develop episodes of lacunarity on all members of the network. There is no validity to the popular assumption that the average rate of slip on individual faults is a constant. Intermediate term precursory activity such as local quiescence and increases in intermediate-magnitude activity at long range are simulated well by the assumption that strong weakening of faults by injection of fluids and weakening of asperities on inhomogeneous models of fault networks is the dominant process; the heat flow paradox, the orientation of the stress field, and the low average stress drop in some earthquakes are understood in terms of the asperity model of inhomogeneous faulting.