Considerations on the success rate in aeronautical engineering studies in Spain

The relationship between different learning evaluation methods and the academic success in an aeronautical engineering degree in Spain is analysed. The study is based on data about the evolution of academic achievement obtained along the last ten year, along which the evaluation and learning’s methods have suffered huge changes.

Analyzing Query Success and User Context

This paper describes the participation of DAEDALUS at the LogCLEF lab in CLEF 2011. This year, the objectives of our participation are twofold. The first topic is to analyze if there is any measurable effect on the success of the search queries if the native language and the interface language chosen by the user are different. The idea is to determine if this difference may condition the way in which the user interacts with the search application. The second topic is to analyze the user context and his/her interaction with the system in the case of successful queries, to discover out any relation among the user native language, the language of the resource involved and the interaction strategy adopted by the user to find out such resource. Only 6.89% of queries are successful out of the 628,607 queries in the 320,001 sessions with at least one search query in the log. The main conclusion that can be drawn is that, in general for all languages, whether the native language matches the interface language or not does not seem to affect the success rate of the search queries. On the other hand, the analysis of the strategy adopted by users when looking for a particular resource shows that people tend to use the simple search tool, frequently first running short queries build up of just one specific term and then browsing through the results to locate the expected resource

A repository for integration of software artifacts with dependency resolution and federation support

While developing new IT products, reusability of existing components is a key aspect that can considerably improve the success rate. This fact has become even more important with the rise of the open source paradigm. However, integrating different products and technologies is not always an easy task. Different communities employ different standards and tools, and most times is not clear which dependencies a particular piece of software has. This is exacerbated by the transitive nature of these dependencies, making component integration a complicated affair. To help reducing this complexity we propose a model-based repository, capable of automatically resolve the required dependencies. This repository needs to be expandable, so new constraints can be analyzed, and also have federation support, for the integration with other sources of artifacts. The solution we propose achieves these working with OSGi components and using OSGi itself.

Simulation of academic performance rates, estimation of indicators of subjects and of a complete degree

The purpose of this paper is to present a program written in Matlab-Octave for the simulation of the time evolution of student curricula, i.e, how students pass their subjects along time until graduation. The program computes, from the simulations, the academic performance rates for the subjects of the study plan for each semester as well as the overall rates, which are a) the efficiency rate defined as the ratio of the number of students passing the exam to the number of students who registered for it and b) the success rate, defined as the ratio of the number of students passing the exam to the number of students who not only registered for it but also actually took it. Additionally, we compute the rates for the bachelor academic degree which are established for Spain by the National Quality Evaluation and Accreditation Agency (ANECA) and which are the graduation rate (measured as the percentage of students who finish as scheduled in the plan or taking an extra year) and the efficiency rate (measured as the percentage of credits which a student who graduated has really taken). The simulation is done in terms of the probabilities of passing all the subjects in their study plan. The application of the simulator to Polytech students in Madrid, where requirements for passing are specially stiff in first and second year subjects, is particularly relevant to analyze student cohorts and the probabilities of students finishing in the minimum of four years, or taking and extra year or two extra years, and so forth. It is a very useful tool when designing new study plans. The calculation of the probability distribution of the random variable "number of semesters a student has taken to complete the curricula and graduate" is difficult or even unfeasible to obtain analytically, and this is even truer when we incorporate uncertainty in parameter estimation. This is why we apply Monte Carlo simulation which not only provides illustration of the stochastic process but also a method for computation. The stochastic simulator is proving to be a useful tool for identification of the subjects most critical in the distribution of the number of semesters for curriculum vitae (CV) completion and subsequently for a decision making process in terms of CV planning and passing standards in the University. Simulations are performed through a graphical interface where also the results are presented in appropriate figures. The Project has been funded by the Call for Innovation in Education Projects of Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM) through a Project of its school Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros Industriales ETSII during the period September 2010-September 2011.

Results of the JET real-time disruption predictor in the ITER-like wall campaigns

The impact of disruptions in JET became even more important with the replacement of the previous Carbon Fiber Composite (CFC) wall with a more fragile full metal ITER-like wall (ILW). The development of robust disruption mitigation systems is crucial for JET (and also for ITER). Moreover, a reliable real-time (RT) disruption predictor is a pre-requisite to any mitigation method. The Advance Predictor Of DISruptions (APODIS) has been installed in the JET Real-Time Data Network (RTDN) for the RT recognition of disruptions. The predictor operates with the new ILW but it has been trained only with discharges belonging to campaigns with the CFC wall. 7 realtime signals are used to characterize the plasma status (disruptive or non-disruptive) at regular intervals of 1 ms. After the first 3 JET ILW campaigns (991 discharges), the success rate of the predictor is 98.36% (alarms are triggered in average 426 ms before the disruptions). The false alarm and missed alarm rates are 0.92% and 1.64%.

Latest developments in data analysis tools for disruption prediction and for the exploration of multimachine operational spaces.

In the last years significant efforts have been devoted to the development of advanced data analysis tools to both predict the occurrence of disruptions and to investigate the operational spaces of devices, with the long term goal of advancing the understanding of the physics of these events and to prepare for ITER. On JET the latest generation of the disruption predictor called APODIS has been deployed in the real time network during the last campaigns with the new metallic wall. Even if it was trained only with discharges with the carbon wall, it has reached very good performance, with both missed alarms and false alarms in the order of a few percent (and strategies to improve the performance have already been identified). Since for the optimisation of the mitigation measures, predicting also the type of disruption is considered to be also very important, a new clustering method, based on the geodesic distance on a probabilistic manifold, has been developed. This technique allows automatic classification of an incoming disruption with a success rate of better than 85%. Various other manifold learning tools, particularly Principal Component Analysis and Self Organised Maps, are also producing very interesting results in the comparative analysis of JET and ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) operational spaces, on the route to developing predictors capable of extrapolating from one device to another.

Diseño, fabricación, caracterización y aplicaciones constructivas de hormigones de consistencia seca con adiciones de materiales de procedencia orgánica e inorgánica de neumáticos fuera de uso (NFUs)

La siguiente investigación está centrada en establecer las diferencias en la reutilización, en los hormigones de consistencia seca, de dos tipos de caucho obtenidos en el proceso del reciclado del neumático, caucho reciclado del neumático (CRN): los tamaños del granulado (4-8 mm) de caucho reciclado de alta calidad (CR: Caucho Limpio) y el desecho del proceso del reciclado: fibra textil y de acero con trazas de caucho (desecho del caucho reciclado, IR: Caucho de impurezas). Ambos tipos fueron clasificados y añadidos como árido en sustitución del árido grueso (grava) desde el 20 al 100% del volumen. El comportamiento físico y mecánico del IR en los hormigones fue comparado con el hormigón de referencia y las series con el CR para el futuro uso en piezas de hormigón prefabricado. En ambos casos se aprecia una reducción de las resistencias mecánicas en proporción con las cantidades de caucho de sustitución, pero menos en series con IR con una combinación satisfactoria de fibra textil y metálica. El IR muestra mayores pérdidas en propiedades tales como trabajabilidad y densidad, pero también con un incremento de la porosidad. Estos hechos facilitan nuevas opciones para los desechos procedentes del CRN en los hormigones y por lo tanto menores gastos de energía, logrando una tasa de éxito en el proceso de reciclado cercano al 100%. The following research is focused on establishing the differences in the re-use as aggregate in dry consistency concretes of two types of rubber obtained in the process of tyre recycling, recycled rubber from tyres (RRT): granulated sizes (4–8 mm) of high quality recycled rubber (CR: Clean Rubber) and the waste of the recycling process: steel and textile fibers with rubber tracks (waste from recycled rubber, WRR). Both types were classified and added as aggregate in substitution of coarse aggregates from 20 to 100 % by volume. The physical and mechanical behavior of IR in concretes was compared with reference concrete and series with CR for a future use in precast concrete pieces. In both samples a reduction of mechanical resistance occurs in proportion with the amounts of rubber of substitution, but less in serials with IR with a successful combination of steel and textile fiber. IR shows furthermore a reduction in properties such as workability and density, but also an increment in porosity. These facts facilitate new options for waste from CRN in concretes and therefore lower energy costs, achieving a success rate in the recycling process close to 100 %.

Active Optical Sensors for Tree Stem Detection and Classification in Nurseries.

Active optical sensing (LIDAR and light curtain transmission) devices mounted on a mobile platform can correctly detect, localize, and classify trees. To conduct an evaluation and comparison of the different sensors, an optical encoder wheel was used for vehicle odometry and provided a measurement of the linear displacement of the prototype vehicle along a row of tree seedlings as a reference for each recorded sensor measurement. The field trials were conducted in a juvenile tree nursery with one-year-old grafted almond trees at Sierra Gold Nurseries, Yuba City, CA, United States. Through these tests and subsequent data processing, each sensor was individually evaluated to characterize their reliability, as well as their advantages and disadvantages for the proposed task. Test results indicated that 95.7% and 99.48% of the trees were successfully detected with the LIDAR and light curtain sensors, respectively. LIDAR correctly classified, between alive or dead tree states at a 93.75% success rate compared to 94.16% for the light curtain sensor. These results can help system designers select the most reliable sensor for the accurate detection and localization of each tree in a nursery, which might allow labor-intensive tasks, such as weeding, to be automated without damaging crops.

Active learning and generic competences in an operating systems course

The Bologna Declaration and the implementation of the European Higher Education Area are promoting the use of active learning methodologies. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effects obtained after applying active learning methodologies to the achievement of generic competences as well as to the academic performance. This study has been carried out at the Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, where these methodologies have been applied to the Operating Systems I subject of the degree in Technical Engineering in Computer Systems. The fundamental hypothesis tested was whether the implementation of active learning methodologies (cooperative learning and problem based learning) favours the achievement of certain generic competences (‘teamwork’ and ‘planning and time management’) and also whether this fact improved the academic performance of our students. The original approach of this work consists in using psychometric tests to measure the degree of acquired student’s generic competences instead of using opinion surveys, as usual. Results indicated that active learning methodologies improve the academic performance when compared to the traditional lecture/discussion method, according to the success rate obtained. These methods seem to have as well an effect on the teamwork competence (the perception of the behaviour of the other members in the group) but not on the perception of each students’ behaviour. Active learning does not produce any significant change in the generic competence ‘planning and time management'.

Evaluating a web-based clinical decision support system for language disorders screening in a nursery school

Background: Early and effective identification of developmental disorders during childhood remains a critical task for the international community. The second highest prevalence of common developmental disorders in children are language delays, which are frequently the first symptoms of a possible disorder. Objective: This paper evaluates a Web-based Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) whose aim is to enhance the screening of language disorders at a nursery school. The common lack of early diagnosis of language disorders led us to deploy an easy-to-use CDSS in order to evaluate its accuracy in early detection of language pathologies. This CDSS can be used by pediatricians to support the screening of language disorders in primary care. Methods: This paper details the evaluation results of the ?Gades? CDSS at a nursery school with 146 children, 12 educators, and 1 language therapist. The methodology embraces two consecutive phases. The first stage involves the observation of each child?s language abilities, carried out by the educators, to facilitate the evaluation of language acquisition level performed by a language therapist. Next, the same language therapist evaluates the reliability of the observed results. Results: The Gades CDSS was integrated to provide the language therapist with the required clinical information. The validation process showed a global 83.6% (122/146) success rate in language evaluation and a 7% (7/94) rate of non-accepted system decisions within the range of children from 0 to 3 years old. The system helped language therapists to identify new children with potential disorders who required further evaluation. This process will revalidate the CDSS output and allow the enhancement of early detection of language disorders in children. The system does need minor refinement, since the therapists disagreed with some questions from the CDSS knowledge base (KB) and suggested adding a few questions about speech production and pragmatic abilities. The refinement of the KB will address these issues and include the requested improvements, with the support of the experts who took part in the original KB development. Conclusions: This research demonstrated the benefit of a Web-based CDSS to monitor children?s neurodevelopment via the early detection of language delays at a nursery school. Current next steps focus on the design of a model that includes pseudo auto-learning capacity, supervised by experts.

Student academic performance stochastic simulator based on the Monte Carlo method

In this paper, a computer-based tool is developed to analyze student performance along a given curriculum. The proposed software makes use of historical data to compute passing/failing probabilities and simulates future student academic performance based on stochastic programming methods (MonteCarlo) according to the specific university regulations. This allows to compute the academic performance rates for the specific subjects of the curriculum for each semester, as well as the overall rates (the set of subjects in the semester), which are the efficiency rate and the success rate. Additionally, we compute the rates for the Bachelors degree, which are the graduation rate measured as the percentage of students who finish as scheduled or taking an extra year and the efficiency rate (measured as the percentage of credits of the curriculum with respect to the credits really taken). In Spain, these metrics have been defined by the National Quality Evaluation and Accreditation Agency (ANECA). Moreover, the sensitivity of the performance metrics to some of the parameters of the simulator is analyzed using statistical tools (Design of Experiments). The simulator has been adapted to the curriculum characteristics of the Bachelor in Engineering Technologies at the Technical University of Madrid(UPM).

Cooperative Learning Model based on Multi-Agent Architecture for Embedded Intelligent Systems

Cooperative systems are suitable for many types of applications and nowadays these system are vastly used to improve a previously defined system or to coordinate multiple devices working together. This paper provides an alternative to improve the reliability of a previous intelligent identification system. The proposed approach implements a cooperative model based on multi-agent architecture. This new system is composed of several radar-based systems which identify a detected object and transmit its own partial result by implementing several agents and by using a wireless network to transfer data. The proposed topology is a centralized architecture where the coordinator device is in charge of providing the final identification result depending on the group behavior. In order to find the final outcome, three different mechanisms are introduced. The simplest one is based on majority voting whereas the others use two different weighting voting procedures, both providing the system with learning capabilities. Using an appropriate network configuration, the success rate can be improved from the initial 80% up to more than 90%.

Aplicación de la energía solar térmica en una incubadora comercial de perdiz roja y supervisión de la actividad biológica mediante sensores inteligentes

La perdiz roja es la especie cinegética por excelencia en la península ibérica, cuya cría en cautividad y suelta controlada comenzó a regularse en los años 70 con la aparición del ICONA. La incubación controlada de huevos de perdiz es imprescindible, con fines cinegéticos y de preservación de la especie, y se desarrolla con incubadoras comerciales de pequeña y mediana escala, distribuidas en zonas rurales con acceso limitado y/o deficiente al suministro eléctrico. En nuestras latitudes el aporte de energía solar térmica se perfila como una posibilidad de mejorar la eficiencia energética de éstas y otras instalaciones y de reducir la dependencia energética exterior. Hay diversos factores físico-químicos que influyen en la calidad de la incubación: temperatura, humedad relativa, y concentración de gases, de los cuales sólo los dos primeros son habitualmente supervisados y controlados en este tipo de incubadoras. Esta Tesis surge en el marco de dos proyectos de cooperación con la AECID, y tiene como objetivos: la caracterización espacial de variables relevantes (temperatura (T), humedad relativa (HR)) en la incubadora comercial durante el proceso de incubación, la determinación de la relación existente entre la evolución de variables ambientales durante el proceso de incubación y la tasa de nacimientos (35-77%), así como el diseño y evaluación del sistema de apoyo solar térmico para determinar su potencial de utilización durante las incubaciones comerciales. La instalación de un número limitado de sensores permite la monitorización precisa del proceso de incubación de los huevos. Los resultados más relevantes indican que en incubaciones comerciales los gradientes de T y HR han sido despreciables (1ºC de diferencia entre las posiciones con mayor y menor T media y un 4,5% de diferencia entre las posiciones con mayor y menor HR), mientras que el seguimiento y ajuste (mediante modelos de crecimiento) de la concentración de CO2 (r2 entre 0,948 y 0,987 en las 5 incubaciones, para un total de 43315 huevos) permite valorar la actividad fisiológica de los huevos e incluso predecir la tasa de éxito (nacimientos), basándose en la concentración de CO2 estimada mediante modelos de crecimiento en el día 20 de incubación (r2 entre 0,997 y 0,994 según el modelo de estimación empleado). El sistema ha sido valorado muy positivamente por los productores (Finca Cinegética Dehesa Vieja de Galapagar). El aporte térmico se ha diseñado (con mínima intrusión en el sistema comercial) sobre la base de un sistema de enfriamiento de emergencia original de la incubadora, al que se han incorporado un colector solar, un depósito, un sistema de electroválvulas, una bomba de circulación y sensores de T en distintos puntos del sistema, y cuyo control ha sido automatizado. En esta Tesis se muestra que la contribución solar puede aportar hasta un 42% de las demandas de energía en nuestras condiciones geográficas para una temperatura de consigna dentro de la incubadora de 36.8ºC, sin afectar a la estabilidad de la temperatura. Además, el rendimiento del colector solar se ha acotado entre un 44% y un 85%, de acuerdo con los cálculos termodinámicos; valores que se mantienen dentro del rango aportado por el fabricante (61%). En el futuro se plantea evaluar el efecto de distintas estrategias de control, tales como controladores difusos, que incorporan el conocimiento experto al control automático. ABSTRACT The partridge is the quintessential game species in the Iberian Peninsula, which controlled breeding and release, began to be regulated in the 70s with the emergence of ICONA. The controlled incubation of eggs is essential, and takes place in commercial incubators of small and medium scale, distributed in rural areas with limited and/or inadequate access to power. In our latitudes the contribution of solar thermal energy is emerging as a possibility to improve the energy efficiency of the facilities and to reduce external energy dependence. There are various physicochemical factors influencing the quality of incubation: temperature, relative humidity and concentration of gases, of which only the first two are typically monitored and controlled in such incubators. This PhD comes within the framework of two cooperation projects with AECID and aims: the spatial characterization of relevant variables in a commercial incubator (temperature (T), and relative humidity (HR)), determining the relationships in the changes in environmental variables during incubation and birth rates (35-77%) as well as the design and evaluation of solar thermal support system to determine its potential use during commercial incubations; the installation of a limited number of sensors has allowed accurate monitoring of incubation of eggs. The most relevant results indicate that in commercial incubations, the gradients in T and HR have been negligible (1°C difference between the highest and lowest positions T and average 4.5% difference between the highest and lowest positions HR), while monitoring and fit using growth models of the concentration of CO2 (r2 between 0.948 and 0.987 in 5 incubations, for a total amount of 43,315 eggs) allows assessing the physiological activity of the eggs and even predict the success rate (hatchability), based on the estimated concentration of CO2 by using growth models on day 20 of incubation (r2 between 0.997 and 0.994 depending on the fit model).The system has been highly valued by producers (Finca Cinegética Dehesa Vieja de Galapagar). The hybrid heat system is designed (with minimal intrusion into the commercial system) based on an emergency cooling device, original in the incubator. New elements have been incorporated: a solar collector, a tank, a system of solenoid valves, a circulating pump and T sensors at various points of the system, whose control has been automated. This PhD shows that the solar contribution is responsible for up to 42% of energy demands in our geographical conditions for a setpoint temperature inside the incubator of 36.8ºC, without questioning the stability of the temperature. Furthermore, the efficiency of the solar collector has been bounded between 44% and 85%, according to thermodynamic calculations; values remain within the range provided by the manufacturer (61%). In the future it is proposed to evaluate the effect of different control strategies, such as fuzzy controllers, which incorporate the expertise to automated control.

La regeneración natural del pino silvestre (Pinus sylvestris L.) en el Valle del Lozoya (Madrid): germinación y supervivencia inicial

La fase de establecimiento del regenerado es un proceso crítico para el desarrollo posterior de la masa tanto por las elevadas tasas de mortalidad que habitualmente lleva asociadas, como por proporcionar el material de partida del que van a disponer las fases subsiguientes. Las restricciones a la germinación y establecimiento de la regeneración del pino silvestre varían enormemente entre las distintas regiones de su extensa área de distribución geográfica. La región Mediterránea constituye un hábitat marginal de la especie en el que las condiciones ecológicas son muy diferentes a las del grueso de su área de distribución. Frente a otras limitaciones (frío, luz, encharcamiento…), en el entorno mediterráneo la tasa de mortalidad parece estar asociada a las condiciones micrometeorológicas del período estival - particularmente, a la sequía -, así como a la presencia excesiva de ganado o ungulados silvestres. No obstante, la mayoría de la información disponible sobre el proceso de regeneración de la especie procede del centro y norte de Europa, por lo que no es de aplicación directa en nuestra región, en la que los estudios de este tipo son mucho más escasos. El presente trabajo pretende contribuir a paliar esta relativa escasez a través del estudio del proceso de regeneración natural en el monte “Cabeza de Hierro”, masa irregular por bosquetes de pino silvestre, paradigma de gestión sostenible y uso múltiple. En este entorno, se pretende caracterizar y cuantificar tanto el proceso de germinación y supervivencia de la especie como la influencia de la cobertura vegetal (estratos arbóreo, arbustivo y herbáceo, y capa de restos vegetales) en su desarrollo. Se persigue así mismo analizar el efecto de la compactación del suelo sobre la persistencia de la masa y contrastar y comparar la eficacia de dos tratamientos edáficos de ayuda a la regeneración: escarificado y decapado+acaballonado. Con este fin se han planteado dos diseños experimentales consistentes en sendas redes de muestreo (Red de Muestreo I o RM I y Red de Muestreo II o RM II) integradas, respectivamente, por 192 y 24 parcelas de 1,5x1,5 m ubicadas bajo distintas condiciones de cobertura vegetal. Sobre una parte de estas parcelas (1/4 en la Red de Muestreo I; 1/2 en la Red de Muestreo II) se han aplicado tratamientos de ayuda a la regeneración (RM I: escarificado; RM II: decapado+acaballonado) y, tras llevar a cabo siembras controladas al inicio del período vegetativo, se han practicado controles periódicos de germinación y supervivencia durante uno (RM II) y tres años consecutivos (RM I). Se han realizado así mismo mediciones complementarias de variables micrometeorológicas, espesura, recubrimiento superficial del suelo y compactación. Los resultados obtenidos a partir de las experiencias realizadas en el monte objeto de estudio permiten concluir que, en relación con el proceso de regeneración natural de la especie en este tipo masa y entorno: 1) la regeneración del pino silvestre durante el primer período vegetativo presenta una tasa de éxito muy baja (1,4% de los sembrados), provocada por una elevada mortalidad durante el primer período estival (>92%) subsiguiente a una germinación de en torno al 17% de las semillas viables que llegan al suelo; 2) la mortalidad sigue siendo elevada hasta el tercer período vegetativo, en que comienza a reducirse significativamente hasta alcanzar el 45%; 3) la cobertura vegetal influye significativamente tanto en el proceso de germinación como en el de supervivencia, aunque ambos procesos presentan una baja correlación linear que pone de manifiesto que los lugares idóneos para la germinación no siempre son los más adecuados para la supervivencia; 4) la escarificación del suelo mejora las tasas iniciales de germinación y supervivencia, pero empeora la tasa de supervivencia posterior (años 2 y 3), por lo que su efecto a medio plazo no resulta significativo; 5) el decapado+acaballonado presenta mejores resultados que el escarificado durante el primer verano, aunque sólo resulta efectivo en condiciones intermedias de espesura de masa; 6) la compactación edáfica no resulta limitante para la productividad ni la persistencia de la masa considerada. ABSTRACT Seedling establishment is critical for later stand progress because it involves high mortality rates and the surviving saplings constitute the starting material for all the subsequent stages. Restrictions for Scots pine germination and seedling survival may vary greatly across its geographical range, as it is widely distributed within north latitudes. Mediterranean region is a marginal sector within this species range and its ecological conditions differ greatly from those of the bulk of the area. Mortality rates in Mediterranean environments seem to be related to summer weather (mainly drought) and high livestock stocking rather than to cold, light or flooding. Most available information on scots pine regeneration process comes from north European experiences and is not transferable to Spanish forests, whereas studies on Mediterranean region are much scarcer. The present work aims at broadening Scots pine regeneration knowledge within Mediterranean region by analyzing its establishment process in the “Cabeza de Hierro” forest: a Scots pine uneven-aged forest at blocklevel scale, exemplary managed for multi-services purpose. Germination and surviving processes are to be characterized and quantified as to vegetation cover both in trees, shrubs, grass and litter strata. Soil compaction effects on forest sustainability are also assessed and the efficacy of some site preparation techniques on regeneration success is tested and compared (scarification vs. scalping+mounding). Two sampling networks comprising respectively 198 (SN I) and 24 plots (SN II) of 1.5x1.5m have been established over a wide range of vegetal cover conditions within the forest. Soil preparation techniques have been applied only to some of the sampling points; namely, 1 out of 4 plots have been scarified within Sampling Network I , while 1 out of 2 plots have been object of scalping & mounding within Sampling Network II. After localized sowing prior to growing season, germination and surviving have been periodically sampled for either one (SN II) or three years (SN I). Supplementary measures for micrometeorological variables, stand density, ground vegetal cover and compaction have also been carried out. Results obtained for the studied forest lead to the following insights regarding Scots pine natural regeneration process within this sort of forest and environment: 1) seedling establishment success rate is quite low (0,15% of sowing seeds), due to high mortality during the first summer (>92%), following a prior 17% rate of germination over viable seeds reaching the soil; 2) mortality rate remains high until the third year after emergence and then decreases to the 50% of surviving; 3) although vegetal cover significantly affects both seedling germination and survival, lineal correlation between those two processes is rather low, which may indicate that places fit for emergence are not necessarily suitable for summer surviving; 4) soil scarification improves both germination and survival during the first growing season, but it is associated to higher mortality rates during the next two years; hence it has no significant medium term effect; 5) scalping & mounding treatment is more effective than scarification concerning establishment improving during the first summer; but its effects are only significant under intermediate stand density levels; 6) soil compaction does not restrict either forest productivity or persistence, despite the area’s long history of high livestock stocking rates and mechanized logging.

Estudio del rendimiento bajo presión en los tiros libres en baloncesto, y su influencia sobre el porcentaje de acierto durante el último minuto de juego

El minuto final de un partido ajustado de baloncesto es un momento crítico que está sujeto a multitud de factores que influyen en su desarrollo. Así, el porcentaje de acierto en los tiros libres durante ese periodo de tiempo va a determinar, en muchas ocasiones, el resultado final del partido. La disminución de rendimiento (drop) en esta faceta de juego en condiciones de presión, puede estar relacionada con múltiples variables propias del contexto deportivo estudiado, como por ejemplo: los segundos restantes de posesión, la situación en el marcador (ir ganando, empatando o perdiendo), la localización del partido (jugar en casa o fuera), la fase de competición (fase regular o eliminatorias) o el nivel del equipo (mejores/peores equipos). Además, las características del jugador que realiza los lanzamientos tienen una gran importancia respecto a su edad y años de experiencia para afrontar los momentos críticos, así como el puesto de juego que ocupa en el equipo. En este sentido, la combinación de factores del contexto y del jugador, permiten interactuar en el rendimiento del lanzador en los momentos finales de partido durante sus lanzamientos de tiro libre. El presente trabajo de tesis doctoral tiene como objetivo encontrar aquellas variables más relacionadas con la disminución de rendimiento del jugador en los tiros libres durante el último minuto de juego, y la última serie de tiros libres en los partidos ajustados de baloncesto. Para alcanzar el objetivo del estudio se analizaron 124 partidos ajustados (diferencias iguales o inferiores a 2 puntos) de todas las competiciones (fase regular, playoff y copa del Rey) de la liga ACB durante las temporadas 2011-2012 a 2014-2015. Para el registro de variables se analizó el porcentaje de acierto en los tiros libres del lanzador en la liga regular, partido completo, último minuto y última serie. De este modo se trató de analizar qué variables del contexto y del jugador permitían explicar el rendimiento en los tiros libres durante el último minuto, y la última serie de tiros libres del partido. Por otro lado, se trató de conocer el grado de asociación entre el descenso del rendimiento (drop) en los momentos finales de partido, y las variables estudiadas del jugador: puesto de juego, edad, y años de experiencia profesional; mientras que las variables situacionales consideradas fueron: fase de competición, localización, clasificación, tiempo restante, y diferencia parcial en el marcador. Para el análisis de los datos se realizaron dos modelos estadísticos: 1º) un modelo de regresión lineal múltiple para conocer el efecto de las variables independientes en el porcentaje de aciertos del lanzador en el último minuto, y en la última serie de tiros libres del partido; y 2º) un análisis de regresión logística binomial para analizar la relación existente entre la probabilidad de tener un drop (disminución del rendimiento) y las características del lanzador, y las variables situacionales. Los resultados del modelo de regresión lineal múltiple mostraron efectos negativos significativos en el porcentaje de acierto en los tiros libres durante el último minuto, cuando los lanzadores son los pívots (-19,45%). Por otro lado, los resultados durante la última serie mostraron el efecto negativo significativo sobre la posición de pívot (- 19,30%) y la diferencia parcial en el marcador (-3,33%, para cada punto de diferencia en el marcador) en el porcentaje de acierto en los tiros libres. Las variables independientes edad, experiencia profesional, clasificación en la liga regular, fase de competición, localización, y tiempo restante, no revelaron efectos significativos en los modelos de regresión lineal. Los resultados de la regresión logística binomial revelaron que las variables experiencia profesional entre 13 y 18 años (OR = 4,63), jugar de alero (OR = 23,01), y jugar de base (OR = 10,68) están relacionadas con una baja probabilidad de disminuir el rendimiento durante el último minuto del partido; mientras que ir ganando, aumenta esta probabilidad (OR = 0,06). Además, los resultados de la última serie mostraron una menor disminución del rendimiento del jugador cuando tiene entre 13 y 18 años de experiencia (OR = 4,28), y juega de alero (OR = 8,06) o base (OR = 6,34). Por el contrario, las variables situacionales relacionadas con esa disminución del rendimiento del jugador son las fases eliminatorias (OR = 0,22) e ir ganando (OR = 0,04). Los resultados principales del estudio mostraron que existe una disminución del rendimiento del jugador en su porcentaje de acierto en los tiros libres durante el último minuto y en la última serie de lanzamientos del partido, y que está relacionada significativamente con la edad, experiencia profesional, puesto de juego del jugador, y diferencia parcial en el marcador. Encontrando relación también con la fase de competición, durante la última serie de tiros libres del partido. Esta información supone una valiosa información para el entrenador, y su aplicación en el ámbito competitivo real. En este sentido, la creación de simulaciones en el apartado de aplicaciones prácticas, permite predecir el porcentaje de acierto en los tiros libres de un jugador durante los momentos de mayor presión del partido, en base a su perfil de rendimiento. Lo que puede servir para realizar una toma de decisiones más idónea, con el objetivo de lograr el mejor resultado. Del mismo modo, orienta el tipo de proceso de entrenamiento que se ha de seguir, en relación a los jugadores más tendentes al drop, con el objetivo de minimizar el efecto de la presión sobre su capacidad para rendir adecuadamente en la ejecución de los tiros libres, y lograr de esta manera un rendimiento más homogéneo en todos los jugadores del equipo en esta faceta del juego, durante el momento crítico del final de partido. ABSTRACT. The final minute of a close game in basketball is a critical moment which is subject to many factors that influence its development. Thus, the success rate in free-throws during that period will determine, in many cases, the outcome of the game. Decrease of performance (drop) in this facet of play under pressure conditions, may be related to studied own multiple sports context variables, such as the remaining seconds of possession, the situation in the score (to be winning, drawing, or losing) the location of the match (playing at home or away), the competition phase (regular season or playoffs) or team level (best/worst teams). In addition, the characteristics of the player are very important related to his age and years of experience to face the critical moments, as well as his playing position into team. In this sense, the combination of factors in context and player, allows interact about performance of shooter in the final moments of the game during his free-throw shooting. The aim of this present doctoral thesis was find the most related variables to player´s drop in free throws in the last minute of the game and the last row of free-throws in closed games of basketball. To achieve the objective of the study, 124 closed games (less or equal than 2 points difference) were analyzed in every copetition in ACB league (regular season, playoff and cup) from 2011-2012 to 2014-2015 seasons. To record the variables, the percentage of success of the shooter in regular season, full game, last minute, and last row were analyzed. This way, it is tried to analyze which player and context variables explain the free-throw performance in last minute and last row of the game. On the other hand, it is tried to determine the degree of association between decrease of performance (drop) of the player in the final moments, and studied player variables: playing position, age, and years of professional experience; while considered situational variables considered were: competition phase, location, classification, remaining time, and score-line. For data analysis were performed two statistical models: 1) A multiple linear regression model to determine the effect of the independent variables in the succsess percentage of shooter at the last minute, and in the last row of free-throws in the game; and 2) A binomial logistic regression analysis to analyze the relationship between the probability of a drop (lower performance) and the characteristics of the shooter and situational variables. The results of multiple linear regression model showed significant negative effects on the free-throw percentage during last minute, when shooters are centers (-19.45%). On the other hand, results in the last series showed the significant negative effect on the center position (-19.30%) and score-line (-3.33% for each point difference in the score) in the free-throw percentage. The independent variables age, professional experience, ranking in the regular season, competition phase, location, and remaining time, revealed no significant effects on linear regression models. The results of the binomial logistic regression showed that the variables professional experience between 13 and 18 years (OR = 4.63), playing forward (OR = 23.01) and playing guard (OR = 10.68) are related to reduce the probability to decrease the performance during the last minute of the game. While wining, increases it (OR = 0.06). Furthermore, the results of the last row showed a reduction in performance degradation when player is between 13 and 18 years of experience (OR = 4.28), and playing forward (OR = 8.06) or guard (OR = 6.34). By contrast, the variables related to the decrease in performance of the player are the knockout phases (OR = 0.22) and wining (OR = 0.04). The main results of the study showed that there is a decrease in performance of the player in the percentage of success in free-throws in the last minute and last row of the game, and it is significantly associated with age, professional experience, and player position. Finding relationship with the competition phase, during last row of free-throws of the game too. This information is a valuable information for the coach, for applying in real competitive environment. In this sense, create simulations in the section of practical applications allows to predict the success rate of free-throw of a player during the most pressing moments of the game, based on their performance profile. What can be used to take more appropriate decisions in order to achieve the best result. Similarly, guides the type of training process must be followed in relation to the most favorable players to drop, in order to minimize the effect of pressure on their ability to perform properly in the execution of the free-throws. And to achieve, in this way, a more consistent performance in all team players in this facet of the game, during the critical moment in the final of the game.