Modeling impact assessment of transport policies through a multiregional input-output integrated approach

El objetivo de esta investigación es desarrollar una metodología para estimar los potenciales impactos económicos y de transporte generados por la aplicación de políticas en el sector transporte. Los departamentos de transporte y otras instituciones gubernamentales relacionadas se encuentran interesadas en estos análisis debido a que son presentados comúnmente de forma errónea por la insuficiencia de datos o por la falta de metodologías adecuadas. La presente investigación tiene por objeto llenar este vacío haciendo un análisis exhaustivo de las técnicas disponibles que coincidan con ese propósito. Se ha realizado un análisis que ha identificado las diferencias cuando son aplicados para la valoración de los beneficios para el usuario o para otros efectos como aspectos sociales. Como resultado de ello, esta investigación ofrece un enfoque integrado que incluye un modelo Input-Output de múltiples regiones basado en la utilidad aleatoria (RUBMRIO), y un modelo de red de transporte por carretera. Este modelo permite la reproducción con mayor detalle y realismo del transporte de mercancías que por medio de su estructura sectorial identifica los vínculos de las compras y ventas inter-industriales dentro de un país utilizando los servicios del transporte de mercancías. Por esta razón, el modelo integrado es aplicable a diversas políticas de transporte. En efecto, el enfoque se ha aplicado para estudiar los efectos macroeconómicos regionales de la implementación de dos políticas diferentes en el sistema de transporte de mercancías de España, tales como la tarificación basada en la distancia recorrida por vehículo-kilómetro (€/km) aplicada a los vehículos del transporte de mercancías, y para la introducción de vehículos más largos y pesados de mercancías en la red de carreteras de España. El enfoque metodológico se ha evaluado caso por caso teniendo en cuenta una selección de la red de carreteras que unen las capitales de las regiones españolas. También se ha tenido en cuenta una dimensión económica a través de una tabla Input-Output de múltiples regiones (MRIO) y la base de datos de conteo de tráfico existente para realizar la validación del modelo. El enfoque integrado reproduce las condiciones de comercio observadas entre las regiones usando el sistema de transporte de mercancías por carretera, y que permite por comparación con los escenarios de políticas, determinar las contribuciones a los cambios distributivos y generativos. Así pues, el análisis estima los impactos económicos en cualquier región considerando los cambios en el Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) y el empleo. El enfoque identifica los cambios en el sistema de transporte a través de todos los caminos de la red de transporte a través de las medidas de efectividad (MOEs). Los resultados presentados en esta investigación proporcionan evidencia sustancial de que en la evaluación de las políticas de transporte, es necesario establecer un vínculo entre la estructura económica de las regiones y de los servicios de transporte. Los análisis muestran que para la mayoría de las regiones del país, los cambios son evidentes para el PIB y el empleo, ya que el comercio se fomenta o se inhibe. El enfoque muestra cómo el tráfico se desvía en ambas políticas, y también determina detalles de las emisiones de contaminantes en los dos escenarios. Además, las políticas de fijación de precios o de regulación de los sistemas de transporte de mercancías por carretera dirigidas a los productores y consumidores en las regiones promoverán transformaciones regionales afectando todo el país, y esto conduce a conclusiones diferentes. Así mismo, este enfoque integrado podría ser útil para evaluar otras políticas y otros países en todo el mundo. The purpose of this research is to develop a methodological approach aimed at assessing the potential economic and transportation impacts of transport policies. Transportation departments and other related government parties are interested in such analysis because it is commonly misrepresented for the insufficiency of data and suitable methodologies available. This research is directed at filling this gap by making a comprehensive analysis of the available techniques that match with that purpose. The differences when they are applied for the valuation of user benefits or for other impacts as social matters have been identified. As a result, this research presents an integrated approach which includes both a random utility-based multiregional Input-Output model (RUBMRIO), and a road transport network model. This model accounts for freight transport with more detail and realism because its commodity-based structure traces the linkages of inter-industry purchases and sales that use freight services within a given country. For this reason, the integrated model is applicable to various transport policies. In fact, the approach is applied to study the regional macroeconomic effects of implementing two different policies in the freight transport system of Spain, such as a distance-based charge in vehicle-kilometer (€/km) for Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGVs), and the introduction of Longer and Heavier Vehicles (LHVs) in the road network of Spain. The methodological approach has been evaluated on a case by case basis considering a selected road network of highways linking the capitals of the Spanish regions. It has also considered an economic dimension through a Multiregional Input Output Table (MRIO) and the existing traffic count database used in the model validation. The integrated approach replicates observed conditions of trade among regions using road freight transport systems that determine contributions to distributional and generative changes by comparison with policy scenarios. Therefore, the model estimates economic impacts in any given area by considering changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment (jobs), and in the transportation system across all paths of the transport network considering Measures of effectiveness (MOEs). The results presented in this research provide substantive evidence that in the assessment of transport policies it is necessary to establish a link between the economic structure of regions and the transportation services. The analysis shows that for most regions in the country, GDP and employment changes are noticeable when trade is encouraged or discouraged. This approach shows how traffic is diverted in both policies, and also provides details of the pollutant emissions in both scenarios. Furthermore, policies, such as pricing or regulation of road freight transportation systems, directed to producers and consumers in regions will promote different regional transformations across the country, and this lead to different conclusions. In addition, this integrated approach could be useful to assess other policies and countries worldwide.

Beyond the Regional Development Paradigm: The Limits of Transport-Based Policies in Spain

This paper reviews the transport and economic development trends for the last 20 years in Spain at a detailed (province or NUTS3) level. As Spain has sustained a significant transport investment effort in this period, with the support of EU funding, this review offers an excellent perspective to put some further light on how the transport-and-regional-development paradigm has shaped decision-making in the transport sector. The paper reviews changes in gross domestic product (GDP), population and motorway endowment for the 47 provinces in mainland Spain. Regional development trends seem to be closely associated to particular local conditions, not clearly associated to transport (motorway) infrastructure endowment. This is consistent with the fact that transport infrastructure has not generally been a critical bottleneck for trade and economic activity during this period. The paper concludes that, in general terms, transport infrastructure investment does not seem to be clearly associated to the otherwise substantial differences in regional development among Spanish mainland provinces during this period.

Be-and Emerald Deposits of the Central Urals (Russia): Conditions of Formation

The Be- and emerald deposits of the Emerald Mines region, in the central part of the Upper-Paleozoic Uralian orogen (Russia), are related to a major shear zone of N-S direction, where both Be-rich S-type granitoids (Carboniferous to Permian) and Cr-rich rocks (ophiolitic dunites and peridotes, Silurian to Devonian) are present.

Small aircraft as a means of transport in Spain

Personal aviation represented 9% of the aircraft movement in Europe in 2006, and it is expected to grow over the coming years. According to the European Personal Air Transportation System (EPATS) study, Spain, along with France and Italy, are the European countries with greater growth prospects. The objective of this paper is to present research results focused on the potential growth of the personal aviation market in Spain and its regions. The research is mainly based on the secondary data of a survey (Movilia) from the Spanish Ministry of Public Works and Transport.

Effect of the curing conditions of concrete on the behaviour under freeze-thaw cycles*

The aim of this work is to relate the curing conditions of concrete and the addition of an air-entraining admixture with the damage caused by freeze–thaw cycles. In countries with a continental climate, the curing of concrete in summer is performed under climatic conditions of high temperature and low humidity, and during the winter the concrete suffers conditions of freeze–thaw, often accompanied by the use of de-icing salts. This paper shows the experimental results of the behaviour of concrete specimens cured under climatic summer conditions (high temperature and low humidity) and then subjected to freeze–thaw cycles. Curing of the specimens includes conditions of good and bad practice in relation to wetting and protection of the concrete. It also examines the effectiveness of using an air-entraining admixture in both cases. The experimental programme includes an evaluation of the mechanical properties of the concrete, the study of the cement hydration and the measurement of the volume and pore sizes of the concrete. These tests were performed before and after the application of the freeze–thaw cycles. The results obtained showed that the specimens without air-entraining admixture show a deterioration of mechanical properties after the freeze–thaw test. However, the inclusion of air bubbles benefits the behaviour of concrete against freeze–thaw cycles so even better mechanical properties after the test were observed. This anomalous behaviour is because the cement hydration process continues over the freeze–thaw tests, closing the pore structure. This aspect has been confirmed with the DTA and TG tests performed

Fish communities as indicators of biological conditions of rivers: methods for reference conditions

Fish communities are a key element in fluvial ecosystems Their position in the top of the food chain and their sensitivity to a whole range of impacts make them a clear objective for ecosystem conservation and a sound indicator of biological integrity. The UE Water Framework Directive includes fish community composition, abundance and structure as relevant elements for the evaluation os biological condition. Several approaches have been proposed for the evaluation of the condition of fish communities, from the bio-indicator concept to the IBI (Index of biotic integrity) proposals. However, the complexity of fish communities and their ecological responses make this evaluation difficult, and we must avoid both oversimplified and extreme analytical procedures. In this work we present a new proposal to define reference conditions in fish communities, discussing them from an ecological viewpoint. This method is a synthetic approach called SYNTHETIC OPEN METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK (SOMF) that has been applied to the rivers of Navarra. As a result, it is recommended the integration of all the available information from spatial, modelling, historical and expert sources, providing the better approach to fish reference conditions, keeping the highest level of information and meeting the legal requirements of the WFD.

Behaviour of steel prestressing wires under extreme conditions of strain rate and temperature

The purpose of this paper is to provide information on the behaviour of steel prestressing wires under likely conditions that could be expected during a fire or impact loads. Four loadings were investigated: a) the influence of strain rate – from 10–3 to 600 s–1 – at room temperature, b) the influence of temperature – from 24 to 600 °C – at low strain rate, c) the influence of the joint effect of strain rate and temperature, and d) damage after three plausible fire scenarios. At room temperature it was found that using “static” values is a safe option. At high temperatures our results are in agreement with design codes. Regarding the joint effect of temperature and strain rate, mechanical properties decrease with increasing temperature, although for a given temperature, yield stress and tensile strength increase with strain rate. The data provided can be used profitably to model the mechanical behaviour of steel wires under different scenarios.

High optical sensitivity to ambient conditions of uncapped InGaAs surface quantum dots

The influence of the environment on the optical properties of self-assembled In0.5Ga0.5As surface quantum dots is studied as a function of different ambient conditions for sensing applications. Their room temperature photoluminescence (PL) quenches under vacuum and decreases strongly under dry O2 or N2 environments. Nevertheless, they have a strong signal at 1.55 lm in air or in a wet atmosphere. The presence of water molecules in the environment improves the PL intensity likely due to its polar character and therefore its easier adsorption by the surface dangling bonds, leading to a suppression of the non-radiative recombination centers.

Key factors affecting the efficiency of transport interchanges

This paper provides a meta-analysis of long/short distance passenger interconnectivity within the European context. The analysis is based on the results of the European project HERMES of the 7th EU R&D Programme. The study collected stakeholders and travelers’ valuation and preferences in 5 interchanges in 3 EU countries. To that end a common survey was conducted in the following sites: Gothenburg Central Station (Sweden), Avenida de America Interchange in Madrid, Lleida-Zaragoza railway stations (Spain), and the Intermodal Station of Part Dieu in Lyon (France). The first survey addresses the analysis of the different stakeholders’ opinion on the interchange management and characteristics. The second survey gives an insight into the key requirements of long/short distance intermodal passengers in the selected case studies. This included the following aspects: on one hand, trip origin and destination, connecting transport services and modes, trip characteristics, type of ticket, trip motive and socioeconomic characteristics of the traveller. On the other hand, it was structured in such a way to ask passengers to rate importance/satisfaction of a series of common quality and functional aspects like information, accessibility, transfer times, service supply, etc. In conclusion, the paper highlights which elements of the interchange are considered as relevant and how different groups of stakeholders value them, both theoretically and in the selected case studies. They also have identified some key barriers as the lack of internal coordination among operators, managers and decision makers, as well as the the poor signage, particularly among connecting services. Travellers seem to have different priorities depending on their age, purpose of trip and mode chosen. In some cases time appears as the most relevant factor, whilst price is decisive in others.

A general framework to testing the effect of transport policy measures to achieve a modal shift: a sequental hybrid model

In order to achieve to minimize car-based trips, transport planners have been particularly interested in understanding the factors that explain modal choices. In the transport modelling literature there has been an increasing awareness that socioeconomic attributes and quantitative variables are not sufficient to characterize travelers and forecast their travel behavior. Recent studies have also recognized that users? social interactions and land use patterns influence travel behavior, especially when changes to transport systems are introduced, but links between international and Spanish perspectives are rarely deal. In this paper, factorial and path analyses through a Multiple-Indicator Multiple-Cause (MIMIC) model are used to understand and describe the relationship between the different psychological and environmental constructs with social influence and socioeconomic variables. The MIMIC model generates Latent Variables (LVs) to be incorporated sequentially into Discrete Choice Models (DCM) where the levels of service and cost attributes of travel modes are also included directly to measure the effect of the transport policies that have been introduced in Madrid during the last three years in the context of the economic crisis. The data used for this paper are collected from a two panel smartphone-based survey (n=255 and 190 respondents, respectively) of Madrid.

Lagrangian tools and the assessment of the predictive capacity of geophysical data sets

We examine, with recently developed Lagrangian tools, altimeter data and numerical simulations obtained from the HYCOM model in the Gulf of Mexico. Our data correspond to the months just after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the year 2010. Our Lagrangian analysis provides a skeleton that allows the interpretation of transport routes over the ocean surface. The transport routes are further verified by the simultaneous study of the evolution of several drifters launched during those months in the Gulf of Mexico. We find that there exist Lagrangian structures that justify the dynamics of the drifters, although the agreement depends on the quality of the data. We discuss the impact of the Lagrangian tools on the assessment of the predictive capacity of these data sets.

Effect of uncommon exit location in the emergency evacuation of transport airplanes

The objective of the present paper is to show the effect of uncommon exit arrangement in the evacuation process of narrow-body airliners, from the point of view of emergency evacuation certification, using the ETSIA model. Two main possibilities will be considered: large longitudinal shifting of the main embarking/disembarking doors; and suppression of some over-the-wing exits.

TITIM GIS-tool: A GIS-based decision support system for measuring the territorial impact of transport infrastructures

To achieve sustainability in the area of transport we need to view the decision-making process as a whole and consider all the most important socio-economic and environmental aspects involved. Improvements in transport infrastructures have a positive impact on regional development and significant repercussions on the economy, as well as affecting a large number of ecological processes. This article presents a DSS to assess the territorial effects of new linear transport infrastructures based on the use of GIS. The TITIM ? Transport Infrastructure Territorial Impact Measurement ? GIS tool allows these effects to be calculated by evaluating the improvement in accessibility, loss of landscape connectivity, and the impact on other local territorial variables such as landscape quality, biodiversity and land-use quality. The TITIM GIS tool assesses these variables automatically, simply by entering the required inputs, and thus avoiding the manual reiteration and execution of these multiple processes. TITIM allows researchers to use their own GIS databases as inputs, in contrast with other tools that use official or predefined maps. The TITIM GIS-tool is tested by application to six HSR projects in the Spanish Strategic Transport and Infrastructure Plan 2005?2020 (PEIT). The tool creates all 65 possible combinations of these projects, which will be the real test scenarios. For each one, the tool calculates the accessibility improvement, the landscape connectivity loss, and the impact on the landscape, biodiversity and land-use quality. The results reveal which of the HSR projects causes the greatest benefit to the transport system, any potential synergies that exist, and help define a priority for implementing the infrastructures in the plan

Strategies for Minimum Distance in Simulated Evacuation of Transport Airplanes

The present paper describes the preliminary stages of the development of a new, comprehensive model conceived to simulate the evacuation of transport airplanes in certification studies. Two previous steps were devoted to implementing an efficient procedure to define the whole geometry of the cabin, and setting up an algorithm for assigning seats to available exits. Now, to clarify the role of the cabin arrangement in the evacuation process, the paper addresses the influence of several restrictions on the seat-to-exit assignment algorithm, maintaining a purely geometrical approach for consistency. Four situations are considered: first, an assignment method without limitations to search the minimum for the total distance run by all passengers along their escaping paths; second, a protocol that restricts the number of evacuees through each exit according to updated FAR 25 capacity; third, a procedure which tends to the best proportional sharing among exits but obliges to each passenger to egress through the nearest fore or rear exits; and fourth, a scenario which includes both restrictions. The four assignment strategies are applied to turboprops, and narrow body and wide body jets. Seat to exit distance and number of evacuees per exit are the main output variables. The results show the influence of airplane size and the impact of non-symmetries and inappropriate matching between size and longitudinal location of exits.

Optimization and evaluation in space conditions of multi-GHz optical modulators

Among the different optical modulator technologies available such as polymer, III-V semiconductors, Silicon, the well-known Lithium Niobate (LN) offers the best trade-off in terms of performances, ease of use, and power handling capability [1-9]. The LN technology is still widely deployed within the current high data rate fibre optic communications networks. This technology is also the most mature and guarantees the reliability which is required for space applications [9].In or der to fulfil the target specifications of opto-microwave payloads, an optimization of the design of a Mach-Zehnder (MZ) modulator working at the 1500nm telecom wavelength was performed in the frame of the ESA-ARTES "Multi GigaHertz Optical Modulator" (MGOM) project in order to reach ultra-low optical insertion loss and low effective driving voltage in the Ka band. The selected modulator configuration was the X-cut crystal orientation, associated to high stability Titanium in-diffusion process for the optical waveguide. Starting from an initial modulator configuration exhibiting 9 V drive voltage @ 30 GHz, a complete redesign of the coplanar microwave electrodes was carried out in order to reach a 6 V drive voltage @ 30GHz version. This redesign was associated to an optimization of the interaction between the optical waveguide and the electrodes. Following the optimisation steps, an evaluation program was applied on a lot of 8 identical modulators. A full characterisation was carried out to compare performances, showing small variations between the initial and final functional characteristics. In parallel, two similar modulators were submitted to both gamma (10-100 krad) and proton irradiation (10.109 p/cm²) with minor performance degradation.